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After an unreleased OpenAI model recently escaped its sandbox and hacked Hugging Face, Sam Altman tells me why the company is slowing down frontier research. We also discuss Astra, OpenAI’s next-generation family of models, which is coming soon.
We talk about the growing backlash against AI. He explains why a faster path to recursively self-improving AI could push an OpenAI IPO further out.
And he shares more about the coming consumer hardware he’s developing with Jony Ive, including the privacy questions around an ambient AI device and the first hints at the form factors they’re building.
This conversation was recently filmed in two parts and in collaboration with TIME.
Thanks to the show's premier sponsors: Atlassian, Granola, and Mercury.
In the launch episode of the Sources Podcast, Alex Heath sits down with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to discuss the future of OpenAI, from its next-generation Astra models to the growing importance of AI safety, the AI backlash, robots, and hitting AGI.
Nearly every tech CEO I talk to right now is obsessed with two things: AI and prediction markets. In that order, but barely.
Yesterday, I interviewed Substack CEO Chris Best about his new integration with Polymarket, which he confirmed is the deepest outside partnership Substack has ever done. It lets writers embed live prediction market data directly into their posts, and Polymarket has joined Substack’s ads beta by paying select creators to include markets in their stories.
Best wouldn’t get into the financial details of the deal itself, though sources tell me Polymarket has paid X and other similar platforms for the same kind of exclusive partnerships. I pushed Best on why he chose an exclusive with Polymarket over also integrating with Kalshi. He deflected and said he wanted to find a partnership that “worked really well.”
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What’s going on here is bigger than Substack. Prediction markets are subsuming the internet, whether you like it or not. They’re getting embedded into the surfaces where people already consume news, opinion, and analysis. Despite the strong, negative reaction many people have to what prediction markets represent, I expect more integrations like the one Substack announced in the coming weeks and months.
Best told me he’s a prediction market nerd who traces his interest back to the sci-fi-adjacent fascination that’s long animated a certain kind of tech founder. He pointed to two moments that made it feel real for him: watching prediction markets call election results faster than the New York Times needle, and using Polymarket odds on the TikTok ban to make an actual business decision about how Substack should prepare. “The fact that I could see a market signal on, hey, there’s a substantial chance that this event is gonna happen, and then potentially change how you plan your business, felt very powerful.”
There are real concerns here that Best acknowledged but didn’t fully resolve. Prediction markets sound elegant in theory: the wisdom of crowds, priced in real time. But as I told Best, the two questions that matter most are who is on the other side of the trade and how disputes get resolved. There’s also the bigger societal issue of whether betting on everything is even a good idea.
None of these issues are ironed out. Insider trading via prediction markets feels rampant, and meaningful cases to hold offenders accountable have yet to be filed. Polymarket specifically has historically used a crypto-based resolution mechanism, and credible research indicates significant token concentration. That means the people who hold the most tokens can effectively control outcomes. Best said he hadn’t gone deep on the specifics there but agreed that “if they have a resolver that doesn’t work, the market won’t work.”
What’s happening now is a land grab. The two main prediction market companies, Polymarket and Kalshi, are racing to embed themselves on every platform where people pay attention, and the CEOs of these platforms are mostly willing to ablige because they’re obsessed with what prediction markets represent. To this tech leader class, the potentially negative ramifications of how these markets actually work today are secondary to the long-term value they’ll bring. As Best put it to me: “I’m a ship and find out guy.”
Notion CEO Ivan Zhao this week on ACCESS
Thanks again to Ivan for coming on this week’s show. Listen or watch wherever you get podcasts.
The art of scooping on TBPN
Thanks to John Coogan and Jordi Hays for having me live in the TBPN Ultradome earlier today. We talked about how I approach scoops, using AI, the state of tech media, prediction markets, and a lot more.
This week in Sources
Sources is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Sources is a newsletter by Alex Heath about the AI race, featuring scoops, unique analysis, and exclusive interviews. Every week, Sources is read by thousands of decision makers in tech, finance, policy, and media. Click here to learn more.
Earlier today, Substack CEO Chris Best and I chatted via in-app live video. We discussed why I started Sources and the current state of tech media. Hope you enjoy!
After spending over 10 years as a tech reporter for other newsrooms, I’m excited to launch my own publication here on Substack. I’m calling it Sources, and it’s about the tech industry’s inside conversation.
In my previous role as deputy editor at The Verge, I took readers inside some of the world's most powerful and secretive tech companies, including Meta, Google, Amazon, Apple, OpenAI, and X. I’ve leaked many internal meetings and product roadmaps. I’ve been among the first to cover big storylines, such as the AI talent wars. I’ve also published exclusive interviews with many of the tech world’s most influential leaders.
Over the years, my scoops have won awards, been cited in congressional hearings, ruined board meetings, and even sparked jokes on Saturday Night Live. I broke the news of Facebook’s rebrand to Meta, Sam Altman overturning an attempted boardroom coup at OpenAI, and key details of how Elon Musk took over Twitter.
Sources is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
I’ve never experienced such a wild and exciting time covering tech. The biggest companies are as powerful as ever, but the ground under them is shifting fast. The rise of AI leaders like OpenAI and Anthropic has compelled Big Tech incumbents to scramble. AI remains brittle and buggy, but millions of people are still forming relationships with chatbots. LLMs are quickly reshaping how software itself is created. Who controls talent, distribution, and compute in the years ahead will define the next era.
One of the best parts of my job is getting to try new products that push the boundaries of what technology can do. On the hardware front, smartphones may seem boring, but a wide range of fascinating, AI-enabled wearables is proliferating. Billions of dollars are being invested in the development of brain-computer interfaces and humanoid robots. The world feels like it’s going to look very different in a few years, and even the people building this future have a difficult time predicting the shape it will take.
The media industry, meanwhile, is also undergoing a massive upheaval. Individuals are becoming more influential than brands, and I expect this trend to only accelerate thanks to AI. The story of media is bundling and unbundling. We’re living through a great period of unbundling right now, and I’m excited to be on this adventure with all of you.
I started The Verge’s first paid newsletter, Command Line, over two years ago because I wanted to build a relationship with my readers. I plan to expand on what I covered there at Sources. Going forward, one issue of Sources per week will also be republished on The Verge’s website, where I’ll remain a contributor.
As Axios covered today, I’m also partnering with Vox Media to launch ACCESS, a new tech podcast with my friend Ellis Hamburger. Our first episode airs on Thursday, September 18th, featuring an interview with Mark Zuckerberg. Our second episode will feature Figma CEO Dylan Field. I hope you’ll subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
The first paid issue of Sources will be published tomorrow, September 17th. It will feature an exclusive preview of my recent interview with Zuckerberg, which is airing in full on ACCESS the next day.
Going forward, I’ll be publishing at least two issues of Source per week. A paid subscription unlocks everything, plus the ability to interact in the comments and with me via DMs. Free subscribers will receive one issue per week.
I’m launching Sources without any outside funding. My goal is to build a sustainable, profitable publication, and that’s not possible without making something worth paying for. I believe that the best reporting comes from going out into the world to attend events, meet people, and actually experience products firsthand. I’m excited to get going with all of you.