Justin Wolfers and Bloomberg's Stacey Vanek Smith pick through a week of confusing economic news on the latest episode of Off the Clock. 

First up, inflation. Inflation came in at 3.4% — not great, not terrible — but here's the part that stings: prices are still rising faster than wages and the average American paycheck buys less than it did a year ago. They also dig into the July jobs report and why it was a real jolt: the economy lost 23,000 jobs when forecasters expected a gain of 80,000, and earlier months got revised down too. 

Then Stacey talks to Justin about how lab-grown diamonds have absolutely crushed prices in this luxury industry (a $6,000 stone now sells for $10 at Walmart). This prompted a fascinating discussion on the diamond-water paradox, thinking at the margin, and why the AI shock to "cognitive work" may be the labor market's version of the same thing. 

Finally, Justin and Stacey cap off the episode with another round of Chart versus Chart. Be sure to vote for your favorite on the channel homepage for Platypus Economics.

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Justin Wolfers sits down for The Professor Is In to answer your follow-up questions about labor's declining share of income — the reason a soaring market can coexist with wages that feel stuck. He explains that this isn't just an American story: across industrialized countries, workers have been getting a smaller cut of the pie for decades, which points less to any one country's politics and more at shared forces — bigger "superstar" firms, weaker union bargaining power, and a shared intellectual culture across the developed world.

Justin also unpacks monopsony power — what happens to your wages when only a handful of employers are hiring near you — with the classic example of Hershey, Pennsylvania. Then he gets to what we can actually do about it: stronger, more constructive unions, Australia's superannuation system that turns workers into owners of the stock market, and the "MeganBot 2000" thought experiment that shows why AI could either be utopia or dystopia depending on one very important thing — ownership.

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The stock market keeps breaking records, but your paycheck doesn't feel like it. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers explains that disconnect with one number: labor's share of income has fallen to 54.4 cents on the dollar, the lowest share on record. And it’s significantly less than the two-thirds that was common for most of the last century.

Justin fires up the actual data to stress-test the claim — accounting for depreciation and tax-driven accounting tricks. But the decline is real and still stands. Then he sizes what it means for you: a five-point drop in labor's share works out to about $10,000 a year in lost wages for the average worker — while the gains flow overwhelmingly to the very top, where the richest households collect over half of all capital income.

Why is this happening? Giant firms that grow sales faster than payroll, weaker worker bargaining power, and globalization that lets your job move elsewhere. And now AI could either make you more productive and better paid — or automate your job and hand the upside to owners. How we slice that pie is up to us.

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Cited Research:
The Rise of Pass-Throughs and the Decline of the Labor Share: https://zidar.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/toruqf3371/files/syzz2022.pdf
Not a Typical Firm: Capital–Labor Substitution and Firms’ Labor Shares: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/HubmerRestrepo_NotTypicalFirm_Oct2023.pdf
Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor: https://shapingwork.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-how-technology-displaces-and-reinstates-labor.pdf

One more thing: When I create these videos, I often crunch a few numbers in Stata, with whom I’ve got a paid partnership. Today, I used it to compare labor's share of income with and without depreciation.

You can follow along with me here: https://platypuseconomics.com/stata/labor_share_worksheet.pdf

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The newest inflation report is out, and Justin Wolfers walks you through what actually matters. Annual inflation is running at 3.4% — well above what the Fed wants, and high enough to explain why the checkout line still feels uncomfortable. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy to predict where prices are headed, sits at a better — but still high — 2.5%. July's monthly numbers came in almost exactly as economists expected, which is why the report is less "news" than confirmation: prices are still rising quickly, just about the way everyone thought they would.

Here's what it means for you. Prices are outpacing wages, so real (inflation-adjusted) pay has fallen over the past year — the average paycheck buys less than it did twelve months ago. Energy is the main culprit: gas is up 25% over the year, diesel 39%, and airfares have shot up on the back of it. If you're flying anytime soon, that ticket is a whole lot pricier. Justin also digs into the tariff story, the burrito discourse, a record 16% drop in lettuce prices, and the Fed's tough spot between stubborn inflation and slowing employment growth.

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In this bonus-sized episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers uses a strange, wonderful case study — the collapse of artisanal bootmaking in 1850s England — to think through what AI will do to your work, your wages, and maybe even where you live. Economic historian Hillary Vipond found that even though a new technology let each worker produce four times as much, total bootmaking jobs barely budged. But two-thirds of the old occupations vanished and were replaced by new ones. The cordswainer disappeared; the factory foreman, machinist, and riveter arrived. In our moment, that's the translator seeing wages fall and the "prompt engineer" rising in their place.

The good news: a bigger pie usually means bigger servings for workers — China's incomes rose more than tenfold as it industrialized. The catch is pace. If AI really replaces half of white-collar work in five years, as some tech CEOs claim, that's a disruption bigger than COVID or the financial crisis. ustin's plain advice: become the most AI-savvy person in your workplace, keep your skills broad rather than narrow, and double down on the basics — because AI will not take your job, but someone using AI might. 

Link to Hillary Vipond's original research: https://github.com/HillaryVipond/JMP/blob/main/Technological_Unemployment_in_Victorian_Britain_VipondH.pdf

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The July jobs report just dropped, and it's time to worry. Markets expected around 80,000 new jobs — instead, the economy lost 23,000, and revisions to the prior two months erased another 100,000 we thought we had. In this video, Justin Wolfers break down what's really going on beneath the headline: the drop in government jobs might be statistical noise, essentially all private-sector job growth is coming from healthcare and social assistance, and the falling unemployment rate is actually bad news once you look at labor force participation.

Justin also digs into a wonkier puzzle — why the payroll and household surveys are telling two different stories about American employment — and compare the US to Canada, where job growth has been roughly four times faster despite a tariff war hitting them harder. Plus: what this all means for the Fed's next move, and why (despite what you may have heard) these numbers are not being faked.

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Justin unpacks the new $100,000-a-year Truth Social API—a special "pipe" that will allow the president's posts to hit Wall Street computers a second or so before the rest of us see them. In this episode of Diving In, he explains why one second is an eternity for a high-frequency trading computer: it can read a post announcing a strike on Iran, figure out what it means for markets, and sell before the news reaches your phone.

Justin lays out three problems. It's bad for democracy — a decision your taxes paid for gets sold to whoever writes a six-figure check, to a company in which President Trump is a major shareholder. It's corrupt on its face — the president is monetizing information he holds only because he works for you. And it's bad economics: once you know some traders have paid for an edge (remember teleprompter guy?), you stop wanting to trade at all, and markets that run on trust start to wither.

At the end of the day, those Wall Street firms will get rich, and that money has to come from somewhere. And if you're not the one with the early feed, it's probably coming from your retirement account.

(A confession: I think that I said that users pay the President's company $100,000 per year. I've subsequently read the price is $100,000 per month. So it's still a problem, but 12 times larger.)

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When the CEO of Anthropic warns AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs, it's easy to picture the destruction. Justin Wolfers wants you to picture the other half of the story. In this episode of Diving In, he uses a carefully researched study of Victorian bootmaking — where a labor-saving sewing machine let each worker make four times as many boots — to show how a technology can completely remake an industry while total employment barely moves.

The numbers are almost eerie: about 220,000 bootmakers in 1851, and 213,000 in 1911. Yet beneath that calm surface, nearly everything changed. Cheaper boots meant more boots (that's Jevons paradox), old craft occupations vanished, and an almost identical number of new factory jobs appeared — in new places, done by the next generation. The incumbents mostly got to retire in their old trade.

None of this predicts what AI will do to your job. But it widens the range of outcomes you should take seriously, and it flags the one thing that may matter most: the pace of change. If AI moves slowly, the creative side of creative destruction has time to arrive. If it moves fast, that gentler adjustment gets much harder. Either way, it’s important to also ask what gets created, not just what gets destroyed.

Link to Hillary Vipond's original research: https://github.com/HillaryVipond/JMP/blob/main/Technological_Unemployment_in_Victorian_Britain_VipondH.pdf

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This is a conversation between Justin and Larry Kotlikoff, fellow economist and host of the Economics Matters podcast. And it was a fun one, in which Larry encouraged Justin to look both backwards and forwards. Backward at some of the work he's most proud of, and forward at the growing challenges we face as an economy and a nation.

In the process, Justin and Larry philosophized over the role of economics and the duty of economists in helping tackle some of the most pressing issues of our time. This was the kind of conversation that reminded Justin why he fell in love with economics: it’s not the models or the math, but the chance to make sense of the lives we actually live.

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Justin and Stacey are back for Off the Clock — helping you figure out what economic news to actually worry about, what you can safely ignore, and where to find some silver linings.

This week was a big one for economic news and data. Justin starts by explaining to Stacey why this latest round of tariffs is the dumbest one yet. And Stacey brings in some reporting to highlight how small businesses are struggling under the weight of constant chaos and confusion.

Then they dig into the Fed and why markets reacted so poorly to Handsome Kevin’s press conference. Finally, Justin and Stacey discuss the latest, lackluster GDP numbers and compete in a “Chart vs. Chart” contest that you get to be the judge of.

02:42 More tariff chaos and confusion
23:53 The Fed vs The Market
34:16 A disappointing GDP report
41:05 Chart vs Chart — A Friendly Competition

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Recent changes to SNAP quietly cut food assistance from 4 million Americans — 1.5 million of them children (plus elderly, disabled, and other eligible recipients who were never the intended target). In this follow-up to his earlier video Diving In to SNAP cuts, Justin Wolfers answers follow-up questions and explains how the policy actually plays out for real people.

Justin walks through why administrative burdens do so much damage: when it's harder to apply, appeal, or bring in paperwork, the people who fall off are often the ones who need help the most. He unpacks the state incentives too: tell caseworkers to reduce payment errors but say nothing about wrongful denials, states get cautious and just boot folks off. And because states run balanced budgets, shifting SNAP costs to them breaks its role as an automatic stabilizer — in the next recession, when more people need food, spending will fall exactly when it should rise.

The stakes are personal. That $6-a-day benefit is groceries for a neighbor, a kid at your child's school, a friend going through a divorce whose income just cratered. And Justin's argues that if Americans understood who's losing help and why, they might feel differently about it.

Six Dollars a Day Is Disappearing For Millions: https://omny.fm/shows/platypus-economics/the-biggest-economic-story-nobodys-talking-about-diving-in

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Donald Trump's trade representative Jamison Greer thinks about trade like a litigator: clients, injuries, bad actors, and remedies. Justin Wolfers takes Greer's own words from his recent interview with The Daily and shows why that worldview rests on muddled thinking about what trade actually is — and why it ends up costing you.

In this Diving In episode, Justin lays out the tells and discusses the bottom line. The numbers are blunt: New York Fed research finds roughly 90% of the tariff burden falls on U.S. firms and consumers, and low-income households bear a disproportionate share. Census data shows imports from China fell — but rose nearly one-for-one from the rest of the region. A lot of trade just changed addresses.

By the end you'll have a portable BS detector for any trade argument — from Trump, Vance, Greer, or your uncle at Thanksgiving.

The Daily Episode With Jamieson Greer: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/podcasts/the-daily/more-trump-tariffs-are-coming.html 

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One more thing: When I create these videos, I often crunch a few numbers in Stata, with whom I’ve got a paid partnership. Today, I used it to explore our trade relationship with China and the eleven members of ASEAN. 

Click through here: https://platypuseconomics.com/stata/trading_places_worksheet_6.pdf and you can work through the steps I followed, and build your statistical mastery.

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In this episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers digs into the latest tariffs on Canada, answering subscriber questions and responding to comments from his earlier Diving In He addresses the suspicious timing of these new tariffs, break down the confusing dairy tariff-rate quota, and argues that total US-Canada dairy trade — about a billion dollars against hundreds of billions in overall trade — isn't worth blowing up either economy over.

On whether Canada should retaliate, Justin borrows Joan Robinson's "rocks in the harbour" metaphor: most of a tariff's cost lands on the country imposing it, so matching Trump would mostly hurt Canadians.

Finally, Justin discusses the biggest issue: trust. Once a president tears up a deal he signed, the value of his next signature is zero — and that discourages the deep, long-run cross-border investment that has defined North American trade over the past several decades.

Canadian Tariffs Diving In: https://omny.fm/shows/platypus-economics/the-biggest-economic-story-nobodys-talking-about-diving-in

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Last summer, Congress passed one of the biggest cuts to food assistance in a generation. SNAP — the program a lot of folks still call food stamps — pays about $188 a month, roughly $6 a day for groceries like milk, eggs, rice, and peanut butter. It's not enough to live on, but it's the thing that lets a parent say yes to fruit this week instead of no.

In this Diving In episode, Justin walks you through what actually happened in four parts: what SNAP is and who leans on it, how the cuts ended up tucked inside Trump's 2025 budget law alongside big tax cuts for rich households, what the law actually changed, and what the data show now. The key detail: the new formula dings states for paying the wrong amount but not for wrongly turning eligible families away — a recipe for a slower, more suspicious system. By spring 2026, more than 4 million people had lost benefits, including an estimated 1.5 million children, even as nearly one in four adults still couldn't reliably afford enough food.

If your mum, your uncle, or your own household counts on this help, this is the shift that decides whether dinner is the thing that gives when the month runs long. Justin's takeaway: when politicians cut a program, don't just ask how much they saved — ask who lost what.

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Trump's new 50% tariffs on Canada bypass USMCA — here's what it really means for you.

President Trump just hit a limited set of Canadian goods with 50% tariffs, and he did it by dusting off Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 — a law last used when Herbert Hoover was in the building. Justin Wolfers walks you through what actually happened, why it's stranger than it sounds, and why the direct cost to the U.S. is smaller than the message behind it.

Here's the twist: throughout the earlier trade wars, being compliant with the USMCA free trade agreement was your escape hatch — roughly 90% of Canadian goods came in duty-free. These new proclamations ignore that agreement entirely. Justin's quick-and-dirty math says the tariffs cover a bit more than $20 billion of imports, about 5% of what we buy from Canada — meaning maybe $50 to $150 a year on your household, plus higher prices from American firms that now face less competition. For Canada it's a real hit: close to 1% of GDP.

But the bigger story is confidence. If a signed trade deal only holds until the next presidential mood swing, it's not really a rule. Justin argues Canada is the test case — a warning to the roughly 60 countries facing new tariffs any week now: retaliate, and your trade deal may not save you.

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In this latest episode of The Professor Is In, Justin answers listener questions and responds to comments from his latest episode dispelling the hype around Trump Accounts. Justin argues that Trump accounts are really two policies bundled together. There’s the attention-grabbing $1,000 payment for newborns, which has a genuine “kernel of genius” if the goal is to introduce families to saving, investing, and compound interest. But that piece is temporary. The larger, more durable part is a tax-advantaged wealth-transfer tool that primarily helps upper-middle-class families pass assets to their children.

Wolfers connects these accounts to other temporary Trump-era tax promises — on tips, overtime, and Social Security — and contrasts those short-lived populist gestures with more permanent tax cuts for the rich. The result, he argues, is a style of fiscal policy that looks pro-worker on the surface while delivering much larger long-run gains elsewhere.

Justin also explains why complexity is not just annoying — but economically harmful. When benefits are routed through a maze of tax rules, account types, and employer provisions, take-up falls. And the people most likely to miss out are often the families who can least afford to, making  an already regressive system even more unequal.

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Diving Into Trump Accounts: https://omny.fm/shows/platypus-economics/the-truth-about-trump-accounts-read-the-fine-print-diving-in 

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In this episode of Off the Clock, Justin and Stacey break down some of the week’s biggest economic news — letting you know what to actually worry about, what you can safely ignore, and where to find some silver linings.

This week they discuss the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and what it might mean for the economy. They also break down the latest inflation numbers, why the relief is probably short lived, and how inflation is starting to show up in less obvious and more surprising ways.

Then, in response to the terrible air quality affecting both Ann Arbor and New York, Justin gives Stacey a quick lesson on public goods, before sharing a surprising good news milestone.

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In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers explains why the new Trump Accounts are actually two very different policies jammed into one. First, there’s the headline-grabbing piece: a one-time $1,000 government deposit for babies born in a narrow window between 2025 and 2028, alongside a permanent tax-advantaged savings account that mainly helps families who can afford to keep contributing.

The central problem, Justin argues, is that the biggest gains go to households with higher incomes, higher tax rates, and employers able to contribute on their behalf. He also takes apart the White House’s eye-popping projections. Those huge future balances depend on years of private saving, unusually optimistic market assumptions, and nominal dollar figures inflated by time and inflation. In other words: the glossy numbers are technically possible, but deeply misleading for ordinary families trying to judge what this policy really means.

Finally, Wolfers asks and answers the practical question: despite these flaws, is a Trump Account still a good choice for you? Depending on your goals, a 529 plan, Roth IRA, or even a standard brokerage account may be a better option. The stakes are high: if you mistake a tax break for populist policy, you miss who really benefits—and make worse choices for your own family’s money.

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The latest CPI report came in better than expected: headline inflation slowed to 3.5% and experienced its largest one-month decline since April 2020. But better-than-expected does not mean problem solved. Falling energy prices were largely responsible for this positive news, and a renewed war with Iran could quickly reverse that progress. As oil prices rise once more, those costs can spread quickly from the gas pump to airfare, shipping, groceries and beyond.

In this episode, Justin also investigates what our current rate of inflation (still historically high) means for your paycheck. Wages may be rising, but higher prices can wipe out those gains. That helps explain why many Americans feel like they’re working just as hard without getting ahead. And while today’s numbers have reduced pressure on the Fed for aggressive interest rate hikes, tariffs, geopolitical shocks, and inflation expectations are still in play, making the road back to price stability far from smooth.

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Justin is back for another episode of The Professor Is In, answering questions, responding to comments, and clarifying his previous takes. The gas price story is not just about your local station—it runs through refining, production constraints, inventories, retail competition, and consumer behavior. When oil prices rise, gas prices can adjust within days, but when they fall, the trip back down is slower—and there are several possible reasons, from tacit collusion to slower consumer search to real production asymmetries.

The conversation also widens into one of the biggest ideas in macroeconomics: sticky prices. Across much of the economy, businesses don’t constantly update prices when demand or costs change, and this stickiness can keep markets from quickly returning to equilibrium. Justin also tackles the slippery question of price gouging. Is there a technical definition? Not really. He explains why economists struggle to define it cleanly, even though ordinary people often feel they know it when they see it. That tension matters for policy debates, including anti-price gouging laws and investigations into unfair pricing.

Chapters
00:35 Does the "Rockets and Feathers" pattern show up in other places?
05:05 Why don't supply chain factors slow prices on the way up?
07:35 What even *is* price gouging?
10:13 What policy tools exist to prevent price gouging?
11:42 Do apps like Gas Buddy help facilitate collusion?
14:18 How are you feeling about your bet on midterm gas prices?

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Oil prices spike and pump signs change almost instantly. But when crude falls, the savings trickle in slowly — if they arrive at all. This pattern, known as "rockets and feathers," is real and measurable across decades of data. But does it prove oil companies are gouging you, or is something else entirely responsible?

In this episode, Justin Wolfers breaks down what the data actually reveal about gas price asymmetry, explores three plausible mechanisms that could create it — from consumer search behavior to tacit strategic interaction to supply chain dynamics — and explains why proving wrongdoing is much harder than spotting the pattern. Most importantly, he shows you when information actually matters: not on the way up (bad news travels fast), but on the way down, where checking a gas-price app or comparing nearby stations can help you find relief faster than waiting for the market to deliver it.

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Justin is back with Stacey Vanek Smith for another episode of Off the Clock just in time for America’s 250th birthday. The two of us dive into the latest economic news, and sift through the noise so you don’t have to.

This week’s conversation covers the latest jobs report (disappointing but far from a disaster), the possible causes of the ongoing disconnect between economic statistics and consumer sentiment, the pros and cons and a less transparent Fed, and America’s newest addition to its tax code—Trump accounts.

To wrap things up, Justin and Stacey look back on the many ways life has improved for Americans over our nation’s 250 years—from income to life expectancy to jobs, and what that might tell us about the future of work and our next quarter-millennium.

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Is a “bad” jobs number is closer to normal than you think?

In this 10-minute breakdown, Justin Wolfers explains how to read the latest jobs report without overreacting to a single headline. June payroll growth came in at 57,000, which looks weak by the standards of a few years ago. But those older standards may no longer fit an economy with slower population growth and lower immigration. The labor market may now need only around 60,000 new jobs a month to stay in balance.

Justin also discusses what’s really driving the labor market. The answer is not manufacturing, but healthcare and social assistance. In fact, more than 100% of net job growth since January 2025 has come from those sectors alone, while the rest of the economy has lost jobs overall. This matters for two reasons. First, it explains why women have received 90% of the jobs created in this expansion. Second, it illuminates why so many Americans feel economic opportunity is shrinking. If you are not in the sectors that are expanding, the economy may feel far weaker than the headline unemployment rate suggests.

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Inflation doesn't just raise prices — it tricks you into staring at bigger dollar numbers instead of asking what those dollars can actually buy. A two percent pay raise sounds great until inflation is running at three percent. Your savings account pays more interest until you realize it's still losing purchasing power. This is “money illusion,” and it costs you real money.

In this episode, Justin Wolfers explains why inflation is like driving through fog: The signals are still there, but they're much harder to read. He walks through the mental shift you need to make — from thinking in dollar signs to thinking in purchasing power — then reveals five practical strategies you can use right now to protect yourself and your wallet. But there is also a deeper lesson revealed: Good economics is about asking what the number you’re seeing really means. Once you start asking it, you're ready to protect yourself during inflationary times.

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Getting food delivered should be simple — but somehow it's gotten outrageously expensive. In this video, Justin Wolfers break down why food delivery apps like DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Grubhub make it nearly impossible to compare prices, and why that's no accident. Justin Wolfers spent half an hour pricing the same dinner order across four platforms, and the results will make you rethink every takeout order you've ever placed. This is what happens when bad design is there by design.

This isn't just a story about annoying apps — it's about how markets can fail even when competition exists. When comparing prices is too painful, firms stop competing on price, and you end up paying more than you should. The FTC is starting to take notice, and there are real fixes on the table. But until then, that $28 burrito isn't going anywhere.

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In this episode of Slate's What Next, we examine the economic costs of the conflict with Iran and why the true price of war extends far beyond the immediate impact on oil prices. From higher energy costs to the effects of rising geopolitical risk on economic growth, we explore how economists measure the consequences of uncertainty — and why those costs are felt most by the world’s most vulnerable households. The conversation also looks at the broader economic implications of weakened institutions and why competition, not just business success, is the foundation of long-term prosperity.

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Trump's trade war just won't die. After the Supreme Court struck down his "Liberation Day" tariffs and courts blocked his emergency global surcharge, the White House is back with a third attempt — this time wrapped in language forced labor, unfair trade practices, and a legal paper trail designed to survive court challenges. It's a new legal strategy, but the same chaotic trade war that's been whipsawing businesses, allies, and consumers for months.

The problem isn't just legal — it's economic. These tariffs are too unstable to drive real investment, too broad to give America any real leverage, and too tied to presidential whims to ever deliver on promises of re-industrialization and job creation. What they do deliver is higher prices for consumers, uncertainty for businesses, and new opportunities for political favoritism. Same trade war, better lawyers, even worse economics.

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Justin Wolfers breaks down the biggest myths surrounding the monthly jobs report, starting with why strong hiring doesn't always move the unemployment rate. He also addresses the recurring claim that new jobs are low quality or mostly second jobs, explaining that the jobs report simply doesn't contain enough detail to support those conclusions in real time.

The conversation then goes deep on revisions, seasonal adjustments, and benchmark updates — and why none of these are signs of manipulation, but rather evidence that measurement improves as better data arrives. Private sector estimates like ADP get attention too, but Wolfers explains why their margin of error makes month-to-month comparisons nearly meaningless.

Inflation and recession close out the discussion, and Wolfers is direct: the two are related concerns but not interchangeable ones. Inflation can make households feel economically miserable without the economy actually being in recession. Public confusion between these concepts distorts everything from consumer confidence to political debate.

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The work week may be over, but the economy really never takes time off. In this week’s episode of Off the Clock, Justin Wolfers and Stacey Vanek Smith help you cut through the noise and figure out what you should actually care about from this week’s economic news.

They skip the SpaceX hype and dig into the stuff that shapes your real life—inflation eating into your paycheck and the slow-motion crisis threatening Social Security. Justin argues this is the biggest story no one is talking about.

They also discuss the World Cup ticket debacle—and whether prices are always the most efficient way to distribute our scarce resources.

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What happens when markets have to price the risks of war and presidential credibility at the same time? In this episode, Justin Wolfers explains why U.S. stocks keep rising and falling with Trump’s Truth Social posts, despite their questionable truthfulness. The core point: even if investors discount what the president says, they continue to react because the stakes are so large.

And the repeated claims that peace is just around the corner create a deeper problem. If investors come to treat presidential statements as noise rather than signal, markets may respond less than they otherwise would. That matters because Wall Street can act as a feedback mechanism, warning policymakers when a decision is economically dangerous. If that feedback loop weakens, bad policy is likely to last much longer.

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When the latest jobs report showed strong numbers, the internet exploded with accusations of fraud and government manipulation. And given everything the Trump administration has done—firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, attempting to install a partisan loyalist in her place—that skepticism isn't entirely unfounded. But skepticism and dismissal are two very different things. In this video, I want to give you the tools to evaluate the data yourself, rather than simply asking you to take my word for it.

Here's what most people don't realize: the jobs report isn't a single number conjured by one agency. It's built from two separate surveys, cross-checked against state unemployment records, and stress-tested every month by independent researchers and private sector data from companies like ADP and Bank of America. I've seen authoritarian governments actually manipulate their economic data—and I know exactly what that looks like. What's happening right now isn't it. In this episode, I'll walk you through the anatomy of the jobs report, explain what real data distortion looks like, and make the case for why good economics means following the evidence—even when it doesn't fit the story you expected.

4:05    6:30 How the institution quietly held 9:16 Why I believe the numbers 14:00 What distorted data really looks like 16:06 Why the labor market looks strong 

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America keeps talking about manufacturing — but the labor market is growing elsewhere.

In this Q&A, Justin Wolfers answers audience questions and responds to subscriber comments from his recent episode diving into the gender gap in recent job growth. Topics addressed include: how the gender wage gap fits into the story, what’s standing in the way of more men entering care jobs, and whether the demand for labor in traditionally masculine fields has been overhyped.

It’s a discussion about economics, politics, and culture — and part of a larger conversation that’s only just beginning.

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In this episode of Off the Clock, Justin unwinds the week’s economic news with his friend, Stacey Vanek Smith—senior writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and cohost of the Everybody’s Business podcast. The goal of this series is to help you understand what to actually be concerned about, what you can safely ignore, and where there’s room for a bit of hope.

They dig into May’s better-than-expected jobs report, the stock market’s confusing reaction, and the recent concert cancellations for Trump’s Freedom 250 celebration. Justin argues there’s an economic story here—especially when you compare the rational choices of these artists to the tech industry’s relentless political brown-nosing.

Then—in a new segment—Justin and Stacey take a step back from the grind of a daily news cycle to appreciate larger economic trends that give us much more fodder for optimism. First up—inflation (yes, really!). 

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Editor’s Note: In this conversation, we mistakenly refer to Freedom 250 as America250. America250 is a bipartisan initiative established by Congress in 2016 to commemorate America’s 250th birthday. Freedom 250 is a separate, public-private initiative established by the Trump administration via executive order earlier this year.

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Since the start of President Trump’s second term, women have received 86% of net new payroll jobs and now hold slightly more non-farm payroll jobs than men. In this episode, Justin Wolfers explains why that shift is happening and what it says about our modern U.S. economy.  This trend is not driven by employers suddenly preferring women over men, but by which parts of the economy are actually growing. The industries adding jobs are disproportionately female-heavy – especially healthcare and education.

Nevertheless, much of our economic policy continues to center an outdated image of work: factory floors, hard hats, and a romanticized industrial past. But if policy keeps looking backward, it will miss where real opportunity is being created. And if leaders steer training, subsidies, and political attention toward yesterday's jobs instead of tomorrow's, workers will be left less prepared for the labor market that actually exists.

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What happens when politicians try to look like they’re fixing high gas prices without actually fixing them? Justin Wolfers explains why a federal gas tax holiday is bad economics, good theater, and a gift to oil companies. 

In a follow-up to his explainer episode, Justin answers audience questions about windfall taxes, what smarter relief could look like, whether a diesel tax holiday make any more sense, and why gas prices carry so much psychological weight in American politics.

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A gas tax holiday sounds like relief, but gets the economics wrong in almost every direction.

Today’s high prices are a war problem — not a tax problem. And cheaper gas is the exact wrong response to a shortage. When something is scarce, higher prices send a signal to conserve, but a tax cut blunts that signal and encourages more demand at exactly the wrong moment. It's akin to subsidizing showers in a drought.

Even more frustrating, the difference between impact and incidence means that much of the benefit would bypass drivers completely — fattening the profits of oil companies instead.

? Key takeaway: If you want to help families during an energy shock, target the hardship—not the gasoline.

? Like and review for more clear-eyed economic analysis with Justin Wolfers—no empty tanks, no empty talking points.

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Justin Wolfers is back with Stacey Vanek Smith to break down three of the biggest stories in economic news. Starting with the arrival of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — and the question of which Kevin Warsh will show up for the job: the inflation hawk from the Great Recession, or a more political figure likely to echo President Trump's calls for lower interest rates. Next, Justin and Stacey cover Bond Market 101, with Justin explaining why the U.S. government sells Treasury bonds, why investors buy them, and what rising long-term yields signal about inflation, oil prices, and the national debt.

Finally, they dig into the stunning collapse in consumer sentiment, and why Justin believes these historically bleak numbers reflect something deeper than a bad economy — namely, a crisis of confidence in the people managing U.S. economic policy. At the same time, Stacey points out the affordability crunch is very real, with inflation hitting some summertime staples especially hard.

If you enjoy this episode, please rate and review — and check out the link below to weigh in on Justin and Stacey's bet about midterm gas prices on Manifold Markets!

Link to Justin & Stacey's bet: https://manifold.markets/StaceyVanekSmith/will-national-gas-prices-in-the-us

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What happens when students can’t instantly reach for their phones? In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers breaks down the latest research on school phone bans and finds a result that’s more complicated—and more interesting—than many parents, teachers, and policymakers expected.

Here's the broader lesson: removing a distraction does not automatically create a better outcome. In economics, that’s the problem of substitution. If less phone time turns into more sleep, conversation, or focus, that’s good. If it turns into some other kind of distraction or conflict, the gains are smaller.

For parents, teachers, and anyone trying to build healthier tech habits, the stakes are personal. A little friction can change behavior—but what you put in the phone’s place may matter just as much for your family, your kids, and your own mental well-being.

Check out the full paper here: https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper/effects-school-phone-bans-national-evidence-lockable-pouches

? Key takeaway: Phone bans can reduce use and improve well-being over time, but the real question is what fills the space the phone leaves behind.

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In this follow-up to an episode diving in to the federal deficit, Justin Wolfers responds to audience comments and questions including: where are interest payments going? Why can’t the government just print more money? And how do changes in immigration impact our ability to pay back our debt?

If you'd like Justin to answer your question in a future segment of The Professor Is In, leave a comment below.

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The Pentagon said the war with Iran has cost Americans $25 billion. But that number only accounts for missiles fired and equipment destroyed. The true cost of war is measured by the future we’ve given up. In this video — my Director’s Cut of an Op-Ed I wrote last week for the New York Times — I explain why that figure is dangerously misleading and show you the math for a less precise, but far more honest answer.

Using the economic concept of opportunity cost, I walk through six methods for calculating the war’s real price tag, tracing the clues through oil, interest rates, geopolitical risk, the stock market, GDP, and future defense budgets. Each of these prove that this war is not costing tens of billions — but hundreds of billions, and quite possibly trillions.

Every number answers a question, and the Pentagon's $25 billion answers a very small one. Here, I'm asking the bigger one: compared to the world we had before this war, what have we lost? The answer should concern every American household.

NYT Op-Ed: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/opinion/hegseth-war-cost.html

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In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers breaks down the economics of the Met Gala using two big ideas from economics: signaling and non-price competition. The basic point is simple: the high price of luxury goods isn't a bug in the system, it's the whole point. So instead of competing through discounts, brands must compete through spectacle: celebrity placements, giant flagship stores, fashion shows, editorial buzz, and events like the Met Gala — which Wolfers argues is a less-bad outlets for wasteful, non-price competition.

In fact, the real scandal may be that Met Gala tickets are underpriced. If brands capture enormous media value from the event while the museum gets only a relatively small share, then the Met may be giving luxury houses a very good deal. The stakes here go beyond fashion. This is a lesson in how markets work when buyers care about status, not just usefulness—and how that affects where money gets spent, what gets built, and how prestige shapes the economy around you.

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What actually mattered in this week’s avalanche of economic news? In this conversation, Justin talks to his friend, Stacey Vanek Smith, Senior writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and cohost of the Everybody’s Business podcast. Together, they sort the signal from the noise: Spirit Airlines’ collapse, the U.S. debt hitting 100% of GDP, and whether AI is really driving growth—or just the headlines.

For viewers trying to determine what to worry about, what you can safely ignore, and where’s there’s room for a bit of hope, this is is a practical guide to what matters and why it affects your life. The stakes are real: oil shocks can raise the cost of everyday goods, high debt can reduce the government’s room to respond in a downturn, and AI could reshape careers faster than many families are prepared for.

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In this opening episode for Platypus Economics, Justin Wolfers explains why the federal budget deficit is one of the best examples of how economics can clarify a debate that politics often mangles. The central point is simple: deficits are not automatically good or bad, but a tool. And the only serious question is whether borrowing makes sense given the economy, the emergency, and the country’s ability to pay.

In a crisis, large deficits are often smart policy—stabilizing incomes, supporting jobs, and keeping an economic downturn from becoming a disaster. But today’s U.S. deficit is different. America is currently running a very large deficit—about 5.8% of GDP—without the usual crisis justification. The stakes are not instant collapse, but a slower erosion of fiscal capacity, institutional credibility, and the ability to spend on things that could actually improve your life.

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Economics. Explained. Clearly.

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Think Like An Economist has taken you on a journey through the economic principles, showing you the tools of economics, and how they can be applied at home and at work. In this season finale, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers reveal the big life choices they've made using those tools of economics, and how you can apply economics to help make decisions throughout your life.

Co-Host: Nastaran Tavakoli-Far. Editor: Alastair Elphick. A Modulated Media Production.

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We're all actors in the economy, with different habits, dilemmas and choices. And economics is about everyday decisions in our daily lives as much as it is about government policy. As economics professors, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers have honed the ways to show how economics involves everyone. They discuss their method of teaching economics, and the way they show that economic tools can help us all make good decisions.

Co-Host: Nastaran Tavakoli-Far. Editor: Alastair Elphick. A Modulated Media production.

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Emily Oster is one of the most interesting economists in the world, and she uses the tools of economics in everything she does. Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers explore Emily's thoughts about how economic ideas can provide useful insight for parents and families. This audio course is about how to think like an economist, and Emily models exactly how to do this.

Editor: Alastair Elphick. A Modulated Media production.

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Larry Summers has been at the forefront of economic thinking for decades - a World Bank chief economist, Professor at Harvard and U.S. Treasury Secretary. He's also warned that the global economy is in the midst of secular stagnation. In this episode, he tells Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers why the economy is stagnant, in spite of low interest rates. The three economists also discuss why their field is so influential, and Larry reveals how policy makers get things done.

Editor: Alastair Elphick. A Modulated Media production.

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Professor Greg Mankiw is one of the most influential economists today: a New Keynesian, advisor to Presidents, and a good friend of Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers. In this episode, the three of them discuss what we can learn from financial crises, why globalisation has lost its shine, and how best to communicate economic ideas.

Editor: Alastair Elphick. A Modulated Media production.

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We all can make mistakes when faced with choices. Biases and old habits can get in the way of good economic decision making. Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers discuss the way our psychology affects our decisions, and they show how to make better judgements and assess the risks.

Co-host: Nastaran Tavakoli-Far. Editor: Alastair Elphick. A Modulated Media production.

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