The economy added 162,000 jobs in August — far above the 50,000 to 60,000 Wall Street expected — and Justin Wolfers is smiling, because this is genuinely good news. Unemployment sits at a low 4.1%, and we've now had six straight months of job growth, which is what a normal, healthy labor market looks like.

But Justin walks you through the asterisks that matter to your paycheck. Nominal wage growth has slipped to 3.1%, the lowest in years, which almost certainly means your real wages are falling as prices climb faster than your paycheck.

Justin also explains what this means as the Federal Reserve considers an interest rate hike.

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Everyone's talking about the bond market, and Justin Wolfers is here to explain what's actually going on — without the panic. In this episode of Diving In, he strips the fancy words away: the bond market is just supply and demand for loans, and right now a lot of people want to borrow. When demand for loans goes up, the price of loans — the interest rate — goes up too.

Justin walks through the three forces pushing long-term interest rates higher.

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Trump’s tariffs were supposed to do five things. So how did they actually score?

Justin Wolfers grades the tariff agenda against the administration’s own goals. Did tariffs create leverage? Did the trade deficit fall? Did factories come home? Did America get safer? Did the revenue deliver?

The answers: America’s trading partners already charged us around 3% on average before any of this started, so the “ripping us off” story was mostly imaginary. The celebrated Korea deal claimed credit for market access American exporters already had under KORUS — the negotiating equivalent of gifting someone their own umbrella and expecting a thank-you card. And the ten signed agreements the White House points to cover about 6% of U.S. goods exports, with no confirmation any of them are actually in force.

Then the numbers. The goods trade deficit hit a record $1.24 trillion in 2025, the first full year of the program. Manufacturing employment is about 62,000 jobs lower than when Trump returned to office. When the Dallas Fed asked 271 Texas manufacturers what tariffs would do to their business, only 5% planned to move production to the United States. Meanwhile, much of the tariff revenue is being refunded — to the importers of record, not to the families who paid at the checkout. Five promises, five tests, five fails.

Chapters:

1:04 Were we really being ripped off?

8:24 Did the trade deficit actually fall?

11:19 Did the factories come home?

14:15 Did tariffs make America safer?

16:55 Where did the tariff money go?

20:32 Why trade is cooperation

This is an episode of Diving In, the weekly Platypus Economics deep dive.

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In this episode of the Professor Is In, Justin answers your questions about "Operation Economic Outcast," the White House plan to squeeze Iran by threatening its trading partners with sanctions and loss of dollar access.

The catch: the US already has roughly 6,000 sanctions on Iran and a naval blockade, so most of the country is severed already. New pressure only bites if third countries actually fall in line — and the biggest one, China, buys most of Iran's oil.

Justin calls China the Andre the Giant of this fight: to move it, the US would have to start a trade war with a third party country like China, Russia, or Turkey. That would inflict real pain on Americans. If Washington isn't willing to do that, the threat is bravado, not policy.

Diving In on "Economic D-Day": https://youtu.be/tOu7yQD9lAI?si=qtV0qp2FN8wD6i0v

Chapters: 1:19 Is today’s threat to Iran more powerful than the 1960’s threat to Cuba?

6:49 What happens if China doesn’t go along with it?

10:33 What are the economic benefits to countries that go along with this plan?

13:21 How seriously should we take the risk of dollar dominance ending?

This is an episode of The Professor Is In, where producer Augusta brings Justin your questions. Want your question answered next time?

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On this Fed-heavy episode of Off the Clock, Justin Wolfers and Bloomberg's Stacey Vanek Smith dig into new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's argument for a quieter, less transparent central bank — and why it doesn't hold up. Warsh defended saying less, insisting markets should take their cues from the economy instead of the Fed. Then his speech pushed expected interest rates sharply higher anyway.

Justin's point is simple: whether or not the Fed means to guide you, you're listening either way — so it's better to be clear. Stacey pushes back with the real case for silence, which is the tendency for forward guidance to create "glass handcuffs."

They also weigh the escalating-but-still-small Canada tariff fight (why $20 billion is tiny — until it isn't), the limits of "economic outcast" pressure on Iran, and a worrying dip in women's labor-force participation driven by rising child care costs and shrinking work-from-home flexibility.

Finally, in honor of the late, great Dolly Parton, Justin and Stacey discuss how she was somewhat of an economist herself – with economics permeating so much of her songbook and lasting legacy.

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In this episode of the Professor Is In, Justin answers your questions from his earlier episode debunking the Census Bureau’s claim that 24,000 noncitizens voted in the 2020 election.

He starts by addressing the elephant in the room: even if the faulty claim were true – it couldn’t have swung anything. Biden won the popular vote by seven million. As for the decisive states: he won Arizona by 10,000 (the report alleges 1,100 fraudulent votes), Georgia by 12,000 (400 alleged), and Wisconsin by 21,000 (500 alleged). The math never gets close.

But the stakes here are far greater than any one report. The Census decides how many congressional representatives your state gets and underpins nearly every official number you rely on. When a statistical agency starts producing propaganda, Justin argues, you're on the same road as Argentina, Greece, and Russia — and your trust in every government figure, from inflation to your representation in Congress, is on the line. 

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The Census Bureau just published a report claiming 24,000 noncitizens illegally voted in the 2020 election. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers takes the report apart and shows why it reads less like statistics and more like propaganda. The document has no author, no report number, and no named reviewers — a flashing red light that career statisticians have refused to sign their names to it.

Justin also does the math: matching 128 million voter records to citizenship files without Social Security numbers means guessing who's who. Apply the Census Bureau's own historical false-match rate of 0.146% and you'd "find" about 21,000 apparent noncitizen voters — even if every single person voted legally. Add outdated naturalization records (the report itself flagged and fixed 64,000 such cases) and the whole 24,000 could vanish. It's counting smoke alarms and calling them fires.

Trusted government statistics are an essential piece of infrastructure on which American prosperity depends. If the institutions that tell you where poverty is rising or how the economy is doing get bent to serve whoever's in power, you lose the ability to hold that power to account — and that's a cost you pay whether you voted or not.

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Do sanctions on Iran actually work? Sixty years of the Cuba embargo say probably not.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just announced what he's calling an "economic D-Day" against Iran — a threat aimed not just at Tehran but at every foreign firm, bank, trader, and shipper that does business with it: choose Iran, or choose access to the U.S. dollar. Justin Wolfers walks you through what was actually announced and then rewinds to 1963, where the Kennedy administration used almost identical language to "tighten the noose" around Cuba. Same playbook, six decades apart.

Here's the problem: the CIA studied the Cuba embargo for 20 years and concluded the sanctions "have not met any of their objectives." Castro stayed in power until 2008; the regime is still there today. Broader research is just as sobering — even optimistic studies find sanctions produce political change only about a third of the time, and almost never regime change against an entrenched authoritarian. One study of Iranian influencers found broad sanctions actually increased pro-government sentiment.

Why should you care? Because sanctions don't stop at the missile factory. There's no border checkpoint that lets in baby formula but not weapons. When you choke an economy, food, medicine, and family remittances get squeezed too — and every time America uses dollar access as an ultimatum, other countries get one more reason to build a system that doesn't need us, quietly eroding the financial leverage that makes your dollar so powerful in the first place.

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Politicians keep promising to bring prices down. In this episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers explains why that's a terrible idea — and why it's not the same thing as slowing inflation. He walks through what actually happens if you force the price level down: wages have to fall too, stores go unprofitable, and the only reliable way to make it happen is to engineer a recession — possibly a depression. The sensible target isn't zero prices, but inflation low enough that you can forget about it.

Justin also digs into why your paycheck feels like it's losing the race even when, on average, it isn't. At least half of Americans saw wages beat prices last year — but the gains mostly go to people who switch jobs, and in today's low-hire, low-fire labor market, that door is barely open. So the raise you'd need to keep up is harder to reach right now, which could help explain why a record 71% of Americans expect prices to outrun their incomes (something that almost never actually happens).

What the $20 Burrito Debate Gets Wrong About Affordability https://omny.fm/shows/platypus-economics/burrito-gate-and-the-affordability-paradox-diving-in  

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Bond yields have jumped from a little over 1% just after COVID to more than 5%, and Justin Wolfers walks you through why that matters at your kitchen table. The short version: the U.S. government is borrowing an enormous amount of money, lining up at the bank ahead of you and me, and that pushes the price of borrowing — the interest rate — up for everyone.

Justin sorts the story into three parts: why everyone's suddenly talking about the bond market, what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is actually doing, and what it all signals. Two forces are driving yields up — heavy borrowing for the AI buildout, and a federal deficit at post-war highs outside of COVID and the Great Recession, even as the economy is doing okay. Markets are quietly asking whether the government is serious about paying them back.

Here's what's at stake for you: when the government crowds the credit line, the rate on your next mortgage, car loan, and credit card goes up, and a bigger interest bill each month means less cash to get by. Then there's Bessent's move to double a bond-buying program from $2 billion to $4 billion a day — routine plumbing, or an attempt to muffle the warning the bond market is sending? Justin's honest answer: right now, nobody knows.

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A college student said a burrito shouldn't cost $20, and suddenly everyone seemed to be arguing about affordability. In this latest installment of Diving In, Justin Wolfers uses that burrito as a metaphor to untangle a real puzzle: 95% of Americans think there's an affordability crisis, two-thirds say groceries are unaffordable — yet by early 2026, every measure of real pay is above where it stood before the 2022 inflation burst. Both things can be true, and Justin shows you how.

Using five different real-wage measures, the Atlanta Fed's tracker of the same workers over time, and price and wage growth data from 12 countries over 60 years, he shows that when prices rise, your wages almost always catch up — and pretty quickly. But since most people experience wage and price hikes as two separate acts in a psychological drama, it can feel like your raise got stolen. Now, a record 71% of Americans believe their income won’t keep pace with prices. And the bundle of bad policies raising the price of your burrito is making matters worse.

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One more thing: When I create these videos, I often crunch a few numbers in Stata, with whom I’ve got a paid partnership. Today, I used it to explore the relationship between rising prices and wages in America and 11 other countries.

Click through here: https://platypuseconomics.com/stata/wages_and_inflation_oecd_worksheet.pdf if you'd like to follow along!

Justin Wolfers and Bloomberg's Stacey Vanek Smith pick through a week of confusing economic news on the latest episode of Off the Clock. 

First up, inflation. Inflation came in at 3.4% — not great, not terrible — but here's the part that stings: prices are still rising faster than wages and the average American paycheck buys less than it did a year ago. They also dig into the July jobs report and why it was a real jolt: the economy lost 23,000 jobs when forecasters expected a gain of 80,000, and earlier months got revised down too. 

Then Stacey talks to Justin about how lab-grown diamonds have absolutely crushed prices in this luxury industry (a $6,000 stone now sells for $10 at Walmart). This prompted a fascinating discussion on the diamond-water paradox, thinking at the margin, and why the AI shock to "cognitive work" may be the labor market's version of the same thing. 

Finally, Justin and Stacey cap off the episode with another round of Chart versus Chart. Be sure to vote for your favorite on the channel homepage for Platypus Economics.

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Justin Wolfers sits down for The Professor Is In to answer your follow-up questions about labor's declining share of income — the reason a soaring market can coexist with wages that feel stuck. He explains that this isn't just an American story: across industrialized countries, workers have been getting a smaller cut of the pie for decades, which points less to any one country's politics and more at shared forces — bigger "superstar" firms, weaker union bargaining power, and a shared intellectual culture across the developed world.

Justin also unpacks monopsony power — what happens to your wages when only a handful of employers are hiring near you — with the classic example of Hershey, Pennsylvania. Then he gets to what we can actually do about it: stronger, more constructive unions, Australia's superannuation system that turns workers into owners of the stock market, and the "MeganBot 2000" thought experiment that shows why AI could either be utopia or dystopia depending on one very important thing — ownership.

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The stock market keeps breaking records, but your paycheck doesn't feel like it. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers explains that disconnect with one number: labor's share of income has fallen to 54.4 cents on the dollar, the lowest share on record. And it’s significantly less than the two-thirds that was common for most of the last century.

Justin fires up the actual data to stress-test the claim — accounting for depreciation and tax-driven accounting tricks. But the decline is real and still stands. Then he sizes what it means for you: a five-point drop in labor's share works out to about $10,000 a year in lost wages for the average worker — while the gains flow overwhelmingly to the very top, where the richest households collect over half of all capital income.

Why is this happening? Giant firms that grow sales faster than payroll, weaker worker bargaining power, and globalization that lets your job move elsewhere. And now AI could either make you more productive and better paid — or automate your job and hand the upside to owners. How we slice that pie is up to us.

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Cited Research:
The Rise of Pass-Throughs and the Decline of the Labor Share: https://zidar.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/toruqf3371/files/syzz2022.pdf
Not a Typical Firm: Capital–Labor Substitution and Firms’ Labor Shares: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/HubmerRestrepo_NotTypicalFirm_Oct2023.pdf
Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor: https://shapingwork.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-how-technology-displaces-and-reinstates-labor.pdf

One more thing: When I create these videos, I often crunch a few numbers in Stata, with whom I’ve got a paid partnership. Today, I used it to compare labor's share of income with and without depreciation.

You can follow along with me here: https://platypuseconomics.com/stata/labor_share_worksheet.pdf

The newest inflation report is out, and Justin Wolfers walks you through what actually matters. Annual inflation is running at 3.4% — well above what the Fed wants, and high enough to explain why the checkout line still feels uncomfortable. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy to predict where prices are headed, sits at a better — but still high — 2.5%. July's monthly numbers came in almost exactly as economists expected, which is why the report is less "news" than confirmation: prices are still rising quickly, just about the way everyone thought they would.

Here's what it means for you. Prices are outpacing wages, so real (inflation-adjusted) pay has fallen over the past year — the average paycheck buys less than it did twelve months ago. Energy is the main culprit: gas is up 25% over the year, diesel 39%, and airfares have shot up on the back of it. If you're flying anytime soon, that ticket is a whole lot pricier. Justin also digs into the tariff story, the burrito discourse, a record 16% drop in lettuce prices, and the Fed's tough spot between stubborn inflation and slowing employment growth.

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In this bonus-sized episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers uses a strange, wonderful case study — the collapse of artisanal bootmaking in 1850s England — to think through what AI will do to your work, your wages, and maybe even where you live. Economic historian Hillary Vipond found that even though a new technology let each worker produce four times as much, total bootmaking jobs barely budged. But two-thirds of the old occupations vanished and were replaced by new ones. The cordswainer disappeared; the factory foreman, machinist, and riveter arrived. In our moment, that's the translator seeing wages fall and the "prompt engineer" rising in their place.

The good news: a bigger pie usually means bigger servings for workers — China's incomes rose more than tenfold as it industrialized. The catch is pace. If AI really replaces half of white-collar work in five years, as some tech CEOs claim, that's a disruption bigger than COVID or the financial crisis. ustin's plain advice: become the most AI-savvy person in your workplace, keep your skills broad rather than narrow, and double down on the basics — because AI will not take your job, but someone using AI might. 

Link to Hillary Vipond's original research: https://github.com/HillaryVipond/JMP/blob/main/Technological_Unemployment_in_Victorian_Britain_VipondH.pdf

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The July jobs report just dropped, and it's time to worry. Markets expected around 80,000 new jobs — instead, the economy lost 23,000, and revisions to the prior two months erased another 100,000 we thought we had. In this video, Justin Wolfers break down what's really going on beneath the headline: the drop in government jobs might be statistical noise, essentially all private-sector job growth is coming from healthcare and social assistance, and the falling unemployment rate is actually bad news once you look at labor force participation.

Justin also digs into a wonkier puzzle — why the payroll and household surveys are telling two different stories about American employment — and compare the US to Canada, where job growth has been roughly four times faster despite a tariff war hitting them harder. Plus: what this all means for the Fed's next move, and why (despite what you may have heard) these numbers are not being faked.

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Justin unpacks the new $100,000-a-year Truth Social API—a special "pipe" that will allow the president's posts to hit Wall Street computers a second or so before the rest of us see them. In this episode of Diving In, he explains why one second is an eternity for a high-frequency trading computer: it can read a post announcing a strike on Iran, figure out what it means for markets, and sell before the news reaches your phone.

Justin lays out three problems. It's bad for democracy — a decision your taxes paid for gets sold to whoever writes a six-figure check, to a company in which President Trump is a major shareholder. It's corrupt on its face — the president is monetizing information he holds only because he works for you. And it's bad economics: once you know some traders have paid for an edge (remember teleprompter guy?), you stop wanting to trade at all, and markets that run on trust start to wither.

At the end of the day, those Wall Street firms will get rich, and that money has to come from somewhere. And if you're not the one with the early feed, it's probably coming from your retirement account.

(A confession: I think that I said that users pay the President's company $100,000 per year. I've subsequently read the price is $100,000 per month. So it's still a problem, but 12 times larger.)

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When the CEO of Anthropic warns AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs, it's easy to picture the destruction. Justin Wolfers wants you to picture the other half of the story. In this episode of Diving In, he uses a carefully researched study of Victorian bootmaking — where a labor-saving sewing machine let each worker make four times as many boots — to show how a technology can completely remake an industry while total employment barely moves.

The numbers are almost eerie: about 220,000 bootmakers in 1851, and 213,000 in 1911. Yet beneath that calm surface, nearly everything changed. Cheaper boots meant more boots (that's Jevons paradox), old craft occupations vanished, and an almost identical number of new factory jobs appeared — in new places, done by the next generation. The incumbents mostly got to retire in their old trade.

None of this predicts what AI will do to your job. But it widens the range of outcomes you should take seriously, and it flags the one thing that may matter most: the pace of change. If AI moves slowly, the creative side of creative destruction has time to arrive. If it moves fast, that gentler adjustment gets much harder. Either way, it’s important to also ask what gets created, not just what gets destroyed.

Link to Hillary Vipond's original research: https://github.com/HillaryVipond/JMP/blob/main/Technological_Unemployment_in_Victorian_Britain_VipondH.pdf

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This is a conversation between Justin and Larry Kotlikoff, fellow economist and host of the Economics Matters podcast. And it was a fun one, in which Larry encouraged Justin to look both backwards and forwards. Backward at some of the work he's most proud of, and forward at the growing challenges we face as an economy and a nation.

In the process, Justin and Larry philosophized over the role of economics and the duty of economists in helping tackle some of the most pressing issues of our time. This was the kind of conversation that reminded Justin why he fell in love with economics: it’s not the models or the math, but the chance to make sense of the lives we actually live.

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Larry's Substack: https://larrykotlikoff.substack.com/

Justin and Stacey are back for Off the Clock — helping you figure out what economic news to actually worry about, what you can safely ignore, and where to find some silver linings.

This week was a big one for economic news and data. Justin starts by explaining to Stacey why this latest round of tariffs is the dumbest one yet. And Stacey brings in some reporting to highlight how small businesses are struggling under the weight of constant chaos and confusion.

Then they dig into the Fed and why markets reacted so poorly to Handsome Kevin’s press conference. Finally, Justin and Stacey discuss the latest, lackluster GDP numbers and compete in a “Chart vs. Chart” contest that you get to be the judge of.

02:42 More tariff chaos and confusion
23:53 The Fed vs The Market
34:16 A disappointing GDP report
41:05 Chart vs Chart — A Friendly Competition

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Recent changes to SNAP quietly cut food assistance from 4 million Americans — 1.5 million of them children (plus elderly, disabled, and other eligible recipients who were never the intended target). In this follow-up to his earlier video Diving In to SNAP cuts, Justin Wolfers answers follow-up questions and explains how the policy actually plays out for real people.

Justin walks through why administrative burdens do so much damage: when it's harder to apply, appeal, or bring in paperwork, the people who fall off are often the ones who need help the most. He unpacks the state incentives too: tell caseworkers to reduce payment errors but say nothing about wrongful denials, states get cautious and just boot folks off. And because states run balanced budgets, shifting SNAP costs to them breaks its role as an automatic stabilizer — in the next recession, when more people need food, spending will fall exactly when it should rise.

The stakes are personal. That $6-a-day benefit is groceries for a neighbor, a kid at your child's school, a friend going through a divorce whose income just cratered. And Justin's argues that if Americans understood who's losing help and why, they might feel differently about it.

Six Dollars a Day Is Disappearing For Millions: https://omny.fm/shows/platypus-economics/the-biggest-economic-story-nobodys-talking-about-diving-in

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Donald Trump's trade representative Jamison Greer thinks about trade like a litigator: clients, injuries, bad actors, and remedies. Justin Wolfers takes Greer's own words from his recent interview with The Daily and shows why that worldview rests on muddled thinking about what trade actually is — and why it ends up costing you.

In this Diving In episode, Justin lays out the tells and discusses the bottom line. The numbers are blunt: New York Fed research finds roughly 90% of the tariff burden falls on U.S. firms and consumers, and low-income households bear a disproportionate share. Census data shows imports from China fell — but rose nearly one-for-one from the rest of the region. A lot of trade just changed addresses.

By the end you'll have a portable BS detector for any trade argument — from Trump, Vance, Greer, or your uncle at Thanksgiving.

The Daily Episode With Jamieson Greer: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/podcasts/the-daily/more-trump-tariffs-are-coming.html 

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One more thing: When I create these videos, I often crunch a few numbers in Stata, with whom I’ve got a paid partnership. Today, I used it to explore our trade relationship with China and the eleven members of ASEAN. 

Click through here: https://platypuseconomics.com/stata/trading_places_worksheet_6.pdf and you can work through the steps I followed, and build your statistical mastery.

In this episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers digs into the latest tariffs on Canada, answering subscriber questions and responding to comments from his earlier Diving In He addresses the suspicious timing of these new tariffs, break down the confusing dairy tariff-rate quota, and argues that total US-Canada dairy trade — about a billion dollars against hundreds of billions in overall trade — isn't worth blowing up either economy over.

On whether Canada should retaliate, Justin borrows Joan Robinson's "rocks in the harbour" metaphor: most of a tariff's cost lands on the country imposing it, so matching Trump would mostly hurt Canadians.

Finally, Justin discusses the biggest issue: trust. Once a president tears up a deal he signed, the value of his next signature is zero — and that discourages the deep, long-run cross-border investment that has defined North American trade over the past several decades.

Canadian Tariffs Diving In: https://omny.fm/shows/platypus-economics/the-biggest-economic-story-nobodys-talking-about-diving-in

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Last summer, Congress passed one of the biggest cuts to food assistance in a generation. SNAP — the program a lot of folks still call food stamps — pays about $188 a month, roughly $6 a day for groceries like milk, eggs, rice, and peanut butter. It's not enough to live on, but it's the thing that lets a parent say yes to fruit this week instead of no.

In this Diving In episode, Justin walks you through what actually happened in four parts: what SNAP is and who leans on it, how the cuts ended up tucked inside Trump's 2025 budget law alongside big tax cuts for rich households, what the law actually changed, and what the data show now. The key detail: the new formula dings states for paying the wrong amount but not for wrongly turning eligible families away — a recipe for a slower, more suspicious system. By spring 2026, more than 4 million people had lost benefits, including an estimated 1.5 million children, even as nearly one in four adults still couldn't reliably afford enough food.

If your mum, your uncle, or your own household counts on this help, this is the shift that decides whether dinner is the thing that gives when the month runs long. Justin's takeaway: when politicians cut a program, don't just ask how much they saved — ask who lost what.

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Trump's new 50% tariffs on Canada bypass USMCA — here's what it really means for you.

President Trump just hit a limited set of Canadian goods with 50% tariffs, and he did it by dusting off Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 — a law last used when Herbert Hoover was in the building. Justin Wolfers walks you through what actually happened, why it's stranger than it sounds, and why the direct cost to the U.S. is smaller than the message behind it.

Here's the twist: throughout the earlier trade wars, being compliant with the USMCA free trade agreement was your escape hatch — roughly 90% of Canadian goods came in duty-free. These new proclamations ignore that agreement entirely. Justin's quick-and-dirty math says the tariffs cover a bit more than $20 billion of imports, about 5% of what we buy from Canada — meaning maybe $50 to $150 a year on your household, plus higher prices from American firms that now face less competition. For Canada it's a real hit: close to 1% of GDP.

But the bigger story is confidence. If a signed trade deal only holds until the next presidential mood swing, it's not really a rule. Justin argues Canada is the test case — a warning to the roughly 60 countries facing new tariffs any week now: retaliate, and your trade deal may not save you.

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In this latest episode of The Professor Is In, Justin answers listener questions and responds to comments from his latest episode dispelling the hype around Trump Accounts. Justin argues that Trump accounts are really two policies bundled together. There’s the attention-grabbing $1,000 payment for newborns, which has a genuine “kernel of genius” if the goal is to introduce families to saving, investing, and compound interest. But that piece is temporary. The larger, more durable part is a tax-advantaged wealth-transfer tool that primarily helps upper-middle-class families pass assets to their children.

Wolfers connects these accounts to other temporary Trump-era tax promises — on tips, overtime, and Social Security — and contrasts those short-lived populist gestures with more permanent tax cuts for the rich. The result, he argues, is a style of fiscal policy that looks pro-worker on the surface while delivering much larger long-run gains elsewhere.

Justin also explains why complexity is not just annoying — but economically harmful. When benefits are routed through a maze of tax rules, account types, and employer provisions, take-up falls. And the people most likely to miss out are often the families who can least afford to, making  an already regressive system even more unequal.

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Diving Into Trump Accounts: https://omny.fm/shows/platypus-economics/the-truth-about-trump-accounts-read-the-fine-print-diving-in 

In this episode of Off the Clock, Justin and Stacey break down some of the week’s biggest economic news — letting you know what to actually worry about, what you can safely ignore, and where to find some silver linings.

This week they discuss the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and what it might mean for the economy. They also break down the latest inflation numbers, why the relief is probably short lived, and how inflation is starting to show up in less obvious and more surprising ways.

Then, in response to the terrible air quality affecting both Ann Arbor and New York, Justin gives Stacey a quick lesson on public goods, before sharing a surprising good news milestone.

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In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers explains why the new Trump Accounts are actually two very different policies jammed into one. First, there’s the headline-grabbing piece: a one-time $1,000 government deposit for babies born in a narrow window between 2025 and 2028, alongside a permanent tax-advantaged savings account that mainly helps families who can afford to keep contributing.

The central problem, Justin argues, is that the biggest gains go to households with higher incomes, higher tax rates, and employers able to contribute on their behalf. He also takes apart the White House’s eye-popping projections. Those huge future balances depend on years of private saving, unusually optimistic market assumptions, and nominal dollar figures inflated by time and inflation. In other words: the glossy numbers are technically possible, but deeply misleading for ordinary families trying to judge what this policy really means.

Finally, Wolfers asks and answers the practical question: despite these flaws, is a Trump Account still a good choice for you? Depending on your goals, a 529 plan, Roth IRA, or even a standard brokerage account may be a better option. The stakes are high: if you mistake a tax break for populist policy, you miss who really benefits—and make worse choices for your own family’s money.

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The latest CPI report came in better than expected: headline inflation slowed to 3.5% and experienced its largest one-month decline since April 2020. But better-than-expected does not mean problem solved. Falling energy prices were largely responsible for this positive news, and a renewed war with Iran could quickly reverse that progress. As oil prices rise once more, those costs can spread quickly from the gas pump to airfare, shipping, groceries and beyond.

In this episode, Justin also investigates what our current rate of inflation (still historically high) means for your paycheck. Wages may be rising, but higher prices can wipe out those gains. That helps explain why many Americans feel like they’re working just as hard without getting ahead. And while today’s numbers have reduced pressure on the Fed for aggressive interest rate hikes, tariffs, geopolitical shocks, and inflation expectations are still in play, making the road back to price stability far from smooth.

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Justin is back for another episode of The Professor Is In, answering questions, responding to comments, and clarifying his previous takes. The gas price story is not just about your local station—it runs through refining, production constraints, inventories, retail competition, and consumer behavior. When oil prices rise, gas prices can adjust within days, but when they fall, the trip back down is slower—and there are several possible reasons, from tacit collusion to slower consumer search to real production asymmetries.

The conversation also widens into one of the biggest ideas in macroeconomics: sticky prices. Across much of the economy, businesses don’t constantly update prices when demand or costs change, and this stickiness can keep markets from quickly returning to equilibrium. Justin also tackles the slippery question of price gouging. Is there a technical definition? Not really. He explains why economists struggle to define it cleanly, even though ordinary people often feel they know it when they see it. That tension matters for policy debates, including anti-price gouging laws and investigations into unfair pricing.

Chapters
00:35 Does the "Rockets and Feathers" pattern show up in other places?
05:05 Why don't supply chain factors slow prices on the way up?
07:35 What even *is* price gouging?
10:13 What policy tools exist to prevent price gouging?
11:42 Do apps like Gas Buddy help facilitate collusion?
14:18 How are you feeling about your bet on midterm gas prices?

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Oil prices spike and pump signs change almost instantly. But when crude falls, the savings trickle in slowly — if they arrive at all. This pattern, known as "rockets and feathers," is real and measurable across decades of data. But does it prove oil companies are gouging you, or is something else entirely responsible?

In this episode, Justin Wolfers breaks down what the data actually reveal about gas price asymmetry, explores three plausible mechanisms that could create it — from consumer search behavior to tacit strategic interaction to supply chain dynamics — and explains why proving wrongdoing is much harder than spotting the pattern. Most importantly, he shows you when information actually matters: not on the way up (bad news travels fast), but on the way down, where checking a gas-price app or comparing nearby stations can help you find relief faster than waiting for the market to deliver it.

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Justin is back with Stacey Vanek Smith for another episode of Off the Clock just in time for America’s 250th birthday. The two of us dive into the latest economic news, and sift through the noise so you don’t have to.

This week’s conversation covers the latest jobs report (disappointing but far from a disaster), the possible causes of the ongoing disconnect between economic statistics and consumer sentiment, the pros and cons and a less transparent Fed, and America’s newest addition to its tax code—Trump accounts.

To wrap things up, Justin and Stacey look back on the many ways life has improved for Americans over our nation’s 250 years—from income to life expectancy to jobs, and what that might tell us about the future of work and our next quarter-millennium.

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Is a “bad” jobs number is closer to normal than you think?

In this 10-minute breakdown, Justin Wolfers explains how to read the latest jobs report without overreacting to a single headline. June payroll growth came in at 57,000, which looks weak by the standards of a few years ago. But those older standards may no longer fit an economy with slower population growth and lower immigration. The labor market may now need only around 60,000 new jobs a month to stay in balance.

Justin also discusses what’s really driving the labor market. The answer is not manufacturing, but healthcare and social assistance. In fact, more than 100% of net job growth since January 2025 has come from those sectors alone, while the rest of the economy has lost jobs overall. This matters for two reasons. First, it explains why women have received 90% of the jobs created in this expansion. Second, it illuminates why so many Americans feel economic opportunity is shrinking. If you are not in the sectors that are expanding, the economy may feel far weaker than the headline unemployment rate suggests.

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Inflation doesn't just raise prices — it tricks you into staring at bigger dollar numbers instead of asking what those dollars can actually buy. A two percent pay raise sounds great until inflation is running at three percent. Your savings account pays more interest until you realize it's still losing purchasing power. This is “money illusion,” and it costs you real money.

In this episode, Justin Wolfers explains why inflation is like driving through fog: The signals are still there, but they're much harder to read. He walks through the mental shift you need to make — from thinking in dollar signs to thinking in purchasing power — then reveals five practical strategies you can use right now to protect yourself and your wallet. But there is also a deeper lesson revealed: Good economics is about asking what the number you’re seeing really means. Once you start asking it, you're ready to protect yourself during inflationary times.

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Getting food delivered should be simple — but somehow it's gotten outrageously expensive. In this video, Justin Wolfers break down why food delivery apps like DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Grubhub make it nearly impossible to compare prices, and why that's no accident. Justin Wolfers spent half an hour pricing the same dinner order across four platforms, and the results will make you rethink every takeout order you've ever placed. This is what happens when bad design is there by design.

This isn't just a story about annoying apps — it's about how markets can fail even when competition exists. When comparing prices is too painful, firms stop competing on price, and you end up paying more than you should. The FTC is starting to take notice, and there are real fixes on the table. But until then, that $28 burrito isn't going anywhere.

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In this episode of Slate's What Next, we examine the economic costs of the conflict with Iran and why the true price of war extends far beyond the immediate impact on oil prices. From higher energy costs to the effects of rising geopolitical risk on economic growth, we explore how economists measure the consequences of uncertainty — and why those costs are felt most by the world’s most vulnerable households. The conversation also looks at the broader economic implications of weakened institutions and why competition, not just business success, is the foundation of long-term prosperity.

Trump's trade war just won't die. After the Supreme Court struck down his "Liberation Day" tariffs and courts blocked his emergency global surcharge, the White House is back with a third attempt — this time wrapped in language forced labor, unfair trade practices, and a legal paper trail designed to survive court challenges. It's a new legal strategy, but the same chaotic trade war that's been whipsawing businesses, allies, and consumers for months.

The problem isn't just legal — it's economic. These tariffs are too unstable to drive real investment, too broad to give America any real leverage, and too tied to presidential whims to ever deliver on promises of re-industrialization and job creation. What they do deliver is higher prices for consumers, uncertainty for businesses, and new opportunities for political favoritism. Same trade war, better lawyers, even worse economics.

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Justin Wolfers breaks down the biggest myths surrounding the monthly jobs report, starting with why strong hiring doesn't always move the unemployment rate. He also addresses the recurring claim that new jobs are low quality or mostly second jobs, explaining that the jobs report simply doesn't contain enough detail to support those conclusions in real time.

The conversation then goes deep on revisions, seasonal adjustments, and benchmark updates — and why none of these are signs of manipulation, but rather evidence that measurement improves as better data arrives. Private sector estimates like ADP get attention too, but Wolfers explains why their margin of error makes month-to-month comparisons nearly meaningless.

Inflation and recession close out the discussion, and Wolfers is direct: the two are related concerns but not interchangeable ones. Inflation can make households feel economically miserable without the economy actually being in recession. Public confusion between these concepts distorts everything from consumer confidence to political debate.

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The work week may be over, but the economy really never takes time off. In this week’s episode of Off the Clock, Justin Wolfers and Stacey Vanek Smith help you cut through the noise and figure out what you should actually care about from this week’s economic news.

They skip the SpaceX hype and dig into the stuff that shapes your real life—inflation eating into your paycheck and the slow-motion crisis threatening Social Security. Justin argues this is the biggest story no one is talking about.

They also discuss the World Cup ticket debacle—and whether prices are always the most efficient way to distribute our scarce resources.

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What happens when markets have to price the risks of war and presidential credibility at the same time? In this episode, Justin Wolfers explains why U.S. stocks keep rising and falling with Trump’s Truth Social posts, despite their questionable truthfulness. The core point: even if investors discount what the president says, they continue to react because the stakes are so large.

And the repeated claims that peace is just around the corner create a deeper problem. If investors come to treat presidential statements as noise rather than signal, markets may respond less than they otherwise would. That matters because Wall Street can act as a feedback mechanism, warning policymakers when a decision is economically dangerous. If that feedback loop weakens, bad policy is likely to last much longer.

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When the latest jobs report showed strong numbers, the internet exploded with accusations of fraud and government manipulation. And given everything the Trump administration has done—firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, attempting to install a partisan loyalist in her place—that skepticism isn't entirely unfounded. But skepticism and dismissal are two very different things. In this video, I want to give you the tools to evaluate the data yourself, rather than simply asking you to take my word for it.

Here's what most people don't realize: the jobs report isn't a single number conjured by one agency. It's built from two separate surveys, cross-checked against state unemployment records, and stress-tested every month by independent researchers and private sector data from companies like ADP and Bank of America. I've seen authoritarian governments actually manipulate their economic data—and I know exactly what that looks like. What's happening right now isn't it. In this episode, I'll walk you through the anatomy of the jobs report, explain what real data distortion looks like, and make the case for why good economics means following the evidence—even when it doesn't fit the story you expected.

4:05    6:30 How the institution quietly held 9:16 Why I believe the numbers 14:00 What distorted data really looks like 16:06 Why the labor market looks strong 

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America keeps talking about manufacturing — but the labor market is growing elsewhere.

In this Q&A, Justin Wolfers answers audience questions and responds to subscriber comments from his recent episode diving into the gender gap in recent job growth. Topics addressed include: how the gender wage gap fits into the story, what’s standing in the way of more men entering care jobs, and whether the demand for labor in traditionally masculine fields has been overhyped.

It’s a discussion about economics, politics, and culture — and part of a larger conversation that’s only just beginning.

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In this episode of Off the Clock, Justin unwinds the week’s economic news with his friend, Stacey Vanek Smith—senior writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and cohost of the Everybody’s Business podcast. The goal of this series is to help you understand what to actually be concerned about, what you can safely ignore, and where there’s room for a bit of hope.

They dig into May’s better-than-expected jobs report, the stock market’s confusing reaction, and the recent concert cancellations for Trump’s Freedom 250 celebration. Justin argues there’s an economic story here—especially when you compare the rational choices of these artists to the tech industry’s relentless political brown-nosing.

Then—in a new segment—Justin and Stacey take a step back from the grind of a daily news cycle to appreciate larger economic trends that give us much more fodder for optimism. First up—inflation (yes, really!). 

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Editor’s Note: In this conversation, we mistakenly refer to Freedom 250 as America250. America250 is a bipartisan initiative established by Congress in 2016 to commemorate America’s 250th birthday. Freedom 250 is a separate, public-private initiative established by the Trump administration via executive order earlier this year.

Since the start of President Trump’s second term, women have received 86% of net new payroll jobs and now hold slightly more non-farm payroll jobs than men. In this episode, Justin Wolfers explains why that shift is happening and what it says about our modern U.S. economy.  This trend is not driven by employers suddenly preferring women over men, but by which parts of the economy are actually growing. The industries adding jobs are disproportionately female-heavy – especially healthcare and education.

Nevertheless, much of our economic policy continues to center an outdated image of work: factory floors, hard hats, and a romanticized industrial past. But if policy keeps looking backward, it will miss where real opportunity is being created. And if leaders steer training, subsidies, and political attention toward yesterday's jobs instead of tomorrow's, workers will be left less prepared for the labor market that actually exists.

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What happens when politicians try to look like they’re fixing high gas prices without actually fixing them? Justin Wolfers explains why a federal gas tax holiday is bad economics, good theater, and a gift to oil companies. 

In a follow-up to his explainer episode, Justin answers audience questions about windfall taxes, what smarter relief could look like, whether a diesel tax holiday make any more sense, and why gas prices carry so much psychological weight in American politics.

Like and review for more clear-eyed economics with Justin Wolfers.

A gas tax holiday sounds like relief, but gets the economics wrong in almost every direction.

Today’s high prices are a war problem — not a tax problem. And cheaper gas is the exact wrong response to a shortage. When something is scarce, higher prices send a signal to conserve, but a tax cut blunts that signal and encourages more demand at exactly the wrong moment. It's akin to subsidizing showers in a drought.

Even more frustrating, the difference between impact and incidence means that much of the benefit would bypass drivers completely — fattening the profits of oil companies instead.

📈 Key takeaway: If you want to help families during an energy shock, target the hardship—not the gasoline.

⛽ Like and review for more clear-eyed economic analysis with Justin Wolfers—no empty tanks, no empty talking points.

Justin Wolfers is back with Stacey Vanek Smith to break down three of the biggest stories in economic news. Starting with the arrival of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — and the question of which Kevin Warsh will show up for the job: the inflation hawk from the Great Recession, or a more political figure likely to echo President Trump's calls for lower interest rates. Next, Justin and Stacey cover Bond Market 101, with Justin explaining why the U.S. government sells Treasury bonds, why investors buy them, and what rising long-term yields signal about inflation, oil prices, and the national debt.

Finally, they dig into the stunning collapse in consumer sentiment, and why Justin believes these historically bleak numbers reflect something deeper than a bad economy — namely, a crisis of confidence in the people managing U.S. economic policy. At the same time, Stacey points out the affordability crunch is very real, with inflation hitting some summertime staples especially hard.

If you enjoy this episode, please rate and review — and check out the link below to weigh in on Justin and Stacey's bet about midterm gas prices on Manifold Markets!

Link to Justin & Stacey's bet: https://manifold.markets/StaceyVanekSmith/will-national-gas-prices-in-the-us

What happens when students can’t instantly reach for their phones? In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers breaks down the latest research on school phone bans and finds a result that’s more complicated—and more interesting—than many parents, teachers, and policymakers expected.

Here's the broader lesson: removing a distraction does not automatically create a better outcome. In economics, that’s the problem of substitution. If less phone time turns into more sleep, conversation, or focus, that’s good. If it turns into some other kind of distraction or conflict, the gains are smaller.

For parents, teachers, and anyone trying to build healthier tech habits, the stakes are personal. A little friction can change behavior—but what you put in the phone’s place may matter just as much for your family, your kids, and your own mental well-being.

Check out the full paper here: https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper/effects-school-phone-bans-national-evidence-lockable-pouches

📈 Key takeaway: Phone bans can reduce use and improve well-being over time, but the real question is what fills the space the phone leaves behind.

🔔 Don't forget to like and review!

In this follow-up to an episode diving in to the federal deficit, Justin Wolfers responds to audience comments and questions including: where are interest payments going? Why can’t the government just print more money? And how do changes in immigration impact our ability to pay back our debt?

If you'd like Justin to answer your question in a future segment of The Professor Is In, leave a comment below.

And don’t forget to rate and review!