Episodes
The G7’s 100 Million Barrel Announcement Changes Nothing | The Professor Is In
Justin Wolfers takes apart a headline that circled the globe: the G7 announcing it will release 100 million barrels of oil it had already promised to release back in March 2026. On this episode of Diving In, producer Augusta Chapman brings him your questions, office-hours style, and Justin explains why a press release dressed up as a deal does nothing to lower the price you pay at the pump.
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Trump's Red Diesel Order, Explained | Diving In
Justin Wolfers digs into President Trump's new executive order letting truckers fill up with red diesel — the tax-free fuel normally reserved for farmers, construction crews, and miners — and deferring the 24.4-cent federal highway tax until after the election. The White House says it'll save a trucker about $60 a fill-up. But diesel hit a record $6.52 a gallon a few weeks ago, and this order doesn't create a single new drop of it.
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This Oil Deal Sounds Huge. Until You Do the Math | Diving In
Trump calls it a massive win: 100 million barrels of emergency oil and fuel released to bring diesel prices down. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers reads the G7 communique line by line and finds something much smaller — an agreement to finally deliver on a release already promised back in March, in exchange for the US dropping a diesel export ban it should never have threatened.
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Why the Jobs Report Keeps Changing | The Professor Is In
The September jobs report landed weak, and the numbers for July and August got quietly revised downward. Economist Justin Wolfers takes your questions on what that actually means — and why a statistical agency that corrects itself is more trustworthy, not less.
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Trump Wants Cheap Money. Why Are Rates Going Up Anyway?
What happens when a president wants lower interest rates—but the economy, inflation, and bond markets are all pushing the other way?
In this episode of What Next with Mary Harris from Slate, Justin Wolfers explains why the latest fight over interest rates is about much more than one Federal Reserve meeting.
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Why Workers Are Getting Less of What the Economy Produces | Off The Clock
Justin Wolfers and Bloomberg columnist Stacey Vanek Smith slow down to unpack the one number that quietly shapes your paycheck: labor's share of income. For most of modern history, workers took home about two-thirds of the pie. Today it's down to 53% — and the rest goes to the people who own the companies, not the ones who show up to work. Then the stakes get bigger.
Justin argues that past $100 million, the only thing money buys is power — and in an election decided by 115,000 votes, one billionaire's checkbook could theoretically swing thousands more. The same logic drives the AI question: the same technology makes your life utopian if you own the robot and dystopian if your boss does.
From the first-ever live edition of Off the Clock, recorded at Stanford.
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What September's Employment Numbers Really Say | Diving In
The September jobs report landed with a thud: just 29,000 jobs created, well short of the 80,000–90,000 forecasters expected, with July and August both revised down and unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers walks you through why those numbers are disappointing by historical standards — yet why unemployment can still stay low and stable at the same time.
Then there's your paycheck. Wage growth has slumped to around 3% — slower than prices — so if you feel like you can't keep up, you're not imagining it. Justin explains what weak wages mean for the Fed, why a rate hike now looks more likely in December than October, and why Wall Street shrugged.
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Are Your Financial Mistakes Making Someone Else Rich? | The Professor Is In
Every dollar you spend having your money actively managed by someone in a sports car is paying for that sports car. In this Professor Is In episode, Justin Wolfers takes questions after his keynote at Stanford's Initiative for Financial Decision Making and lands on the core ideas he thinks every personal finance course must teach.
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Why Good Money Advice Fails to Land | Diving In
Most of us wash our hands even though we've never seen a germ. But when it comes to personal finance, hardly anyone "washes their hands" — and the mistakes are expensive. Justin Wolfers, back from a Stanford keynote to finance educators, argues that ignoring sound financial advice may cost people somewhere between 2% and 10% of their lifetime consumption — putting it in the same neighborhood as the welfare cost of climate change, and dwarfing the 0.1–1% economists usually assign to business cycles.
So why won't people listen? Because the public doesn't trust economists: surveys show they rank barely above politicians in favorability. Justin makes the case that the fix isn't more experts screaming about interest rates — it's using plainer speech, telling better stories, showing real empathy, and laying out one clear action at a time. Here's what's in it for you: the employer match you're leaving on the table, the credit card interest compounding daily while your cash sits in savings, the actively managed fund quietly skimming your returns. Small mistakes, moved across a lifetime, add up to real money — yours.
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What Airbags Teach Us About Artificial Intelligence | The Professor Is In
AI safety fears are in the news, so Justin Wolfers sits down with producer Augusta to work through the economics — and the ethics — of building guardrails into AI. Using airbags as the analogy, he shows why a "safe" AI, like a car with airbags, works a little less well than one built with no precautions — and why that tradeoff is worth taking when the downside isn't a fender bender but the electricity grid, a biological weapon, or human extinction.
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How Much Should We Spend to Prevent an AI Catastrophe? | Diving In
The people building the most powerful AI see faster science, better medicines, and explosive economic growth. Others see catastrophe. Justin Wolfers steps into that argument with the one tool that can actually weigh the two: economics.
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How Accountability Shapes National Borrowing Rates | The Professor Is In
What's the relationship between journalism and borrowing costs?
When a local paper shuts down, something surprising happens: the town starts paying higher interest on its debt. Justin Wolfers sits down with producer Augusta to answer viewer questions about why press freedom isn't just a civics-class ideal — it's an economic force that touches your mortgage rate, your government's bond yields, and the whole institutional plumbing that keeps prosperity running.
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Why Trump's Diesel Export Ban Could Raise Gas Prices | Diving In
The White House is floating a temporary ban on U.S. diesel exports, and the pitch sounds simple: keep the diesel here, and prices fall for farmers and truckers.
In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers walks through why that story falls apart the moment you follow the economics past its first sentence.
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What Would It Take to Eliminate Poverty? | The Professor Is In
In this episode of the Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers answers your questions about poverty in America. Justin walks through the official poverty measure ($32,649 for two adults and two kids), the newer supplemental measure ($41,701 for a renting family that adjusts for local costs and now counts internet and phone as essentials), and why the two disagree about how many people are poor.
Justin also digs into the hard questions: is redistribution always a leaky bucket, or can fairness make the pie bigger? Why don't we just end poverty with a universal basic income?
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The Economic Cost of Trump's War on The Press | Diving In
When the White House pulled the press badges of CNN, MS Now, and Politico, most of us reached for the First Amendment. Justin Wolfers asks a different question: what does a free press actually DO for us? What happens to your wallet when a president gets leverage over the reporters?
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What If We Just Gave Poor People Money?
Official poverty fell to 10.2% — so why does the better measure show almost no change?
The new poverty numbers are out, and the headline looks like good news: official poverty dropped to 10.2%, a third straight annual decline. But Justin Wolfers explains why that single statistic hides more than it reveals — and why the broader "supplemental" measure tells a very different story.
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The Fed Raised Rates. Here's What It's Fighting. | Off The Clock
The Fed just raised rates unanimously — and Justin Wolfers explains why that 12-0 vote matters more than the rate itself. Joined by Bloomberg Businessweek's Stacey Vanek-Smith on Off The Clock, Justin unpacks what "Silent Kevin" Warsh actually signaled, why the president's dream of 1% interest rates would light a fire under inflation, and why even a government that repays its debts can end up unable to borrow again.
Then, Justin and Stacey debate whether "the feelings are the data," and Stacey builds the whole global economy into one bacon cheeseburger
.
Finally, Justin turns thousands of YouTube comments into a data set to show Americans something the U.S. media keeps missing: just how angry Canadians are, and why they'll accept real economic pain.
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The Hawk Behind The Hike | The Professor Is In
The Fed just raised its target rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the first hike since 2023 — but Justin Wolfers argues the number on the front page isn't the real story. In this episode of The Professor Is In, producer Augusta Chapman brings you audience questions, and Justin explains why the bigger signal was new Fed chair Kevin Warsh convincing markets he's a genuine inflation hawk.
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Understanding The Fed’s Rate Hike Decision | Diving In
Understanding The Fed’s Rate Hike Decision | Diving In
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday by a quarter of a percentage point. It’s the first time the Central Bank upped rates since July, 2023.
All 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, including Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, voted in favor of a rate hike. Justin Wolfers, professor of economics and founder of Platypus Economics, breaks down the Fed’s decision, and unpacks how it’ll impact your life.
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The Canadian Boycott is About More than Economics | The Professor Is In
Why an "infinity percent" tariff on Canada may hurt Americans more than Canadians.
The U.S.–Canada trade war just got weirder, and Justin Wolfers walks through what actually changed. After Canada answered Washington's tariffs with a measured, dollar-for-dollar response, the White House escalated again. They proposed an outright import ban on things like Canadian alcohol, dairy, and auto products. His point: banning a product punishes the American buyers who wanted it most and now can't get it at any price.
That’s not the only way Americans are getting hurt. Canadian consumers are boycotting anything U.S. You can see it in the empty hotel rooms in Las Vegas and half-full convention centers. Canadians are "speaking from their heart" about sovereignty and dignity. No handshake between leaders will make that disappear.
Why should you care? Because the price of the clowning around lands in your pocket. This could look like a lost bonus, a thinner paycheck, or your employer's shrinking income. If Canada decides it can't trust its neighbor and diversifies toward Europe and Asia, that shift outlasts any single election.
Chapters:
0:00 Jazz hands and an update
1:00 What's changed since the last video
3:19 Meet the "infinity percent" tariff
4:30 Why a ban punishes American buyers
5:30 Do consumer boycotts actually work?
9:07 The real cost is the clowning around
11:07 How big a hit is this, really?
12:10 Should Canada diversify away from the U.S.?
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The Hidden Link Between Government Debt and Everyday Credit | Off the Clock
Why does the bond market matter more than the stock market for your wallet? Justin Wolfers and Bloomberg Businessweek columnist Stacey Vanek Smith take on August's inflation report, the rising odds the Fed hikes rates, and the one market that quietly sets the price of your car loan, your student loan, and your mortgage.
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What August’s Inflation Report Means for You
Inflation is stuck at 3.4% and prices are outrunning your paycheck. Here's what August really showed.
The August inflation report just landed, and Justin Wolfers walks you through what it means for your wallet. Plus the all-important burrito price index.
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Vote Republican, Get $5,000? | Diving In
Is the promise real, and who actually pays for it?
At a midterm campaign rally Wednesday night, President Trump promised every adult American citizen a $5,000 check, but only if Republicans win both the House and the Senate. He's calling them "Trump dividends."
Justin Wolfers is here with a reality check, on Diving In.
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How Governments Manipulate Statistics Without Lying | Professor Is In
Can you still trust the jobs numbers after Commerce dropped its ban on political interference?
In August the Commerce Department quietly crossed out the rules that shielded official statistics from political meddling — meaning reports can now be delayed, buried, reworded, or stripped of their uncertainty. So can you still trust the numbers that shape your paycheck, your mortgage rate, and the price of your groceries?
In this episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers answers the question a whole audience asked: in light of this, why should we believe the latest jobs numbers?
Most useful of all, Justin hands you a rule of thumb for telling independent statistics from political claims — trust the official statistical agencies, be wary of anything from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and remember that someone who lied to you once will lie to you again.
Chapters:
0:00 An expensive way to make propaganda
0:56 Can we still trust the jobs numbers?
1:56 Which agencies are actually at risk
2:50 Why the jobs data is still protected
3:50 How statistics really get manipulated
6:22 The one report that was a lie
9:11 The tin-pot dictator club
10:02 Why propaganda destroys data's value
13:12 A rule of thumb for reading statistics
15:39 Official agencies vs. 1600 Pennsylvania Ave
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Hidden Ways the Government Manipulates Data | Diving In
How the government can rig official statistics without ever faking a single number.
A few sentences vanished from a Commerce Department directive — and almost no one noticed. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers walks you through what changed on August 19, when the department quietly scrapped its ban on political interference in the science behind America's official statistics. No fabricated numbers required: a report can be delayed, buried, reworded, or stripped of its uncertainty, and under the new rules that's all allowed at the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Here's why it lands on your kitchen table. These agencies tell you where prices are rising, whether poverty is getting worse, and whether the economy is actually growing. If a government distorts the inflation record, your grocery bill doesn't fall — you just stop being able to see the truth, and you can't fix what you can't measure. Justin counts the phrases erased from the old policy ("inappropriate influence": 10 mentions, now zero), shows how the scientific integrity watchdog job can now go to a political appointee who can be fired for inconvenient numbers, and walks through the Soviet, Venezuelan, Brazilian, and Argentine playbooks these new rules would permit. Then the one guardrail still standing: the 2018 trust regulation — and the big asterisk on whether anyone will enforce it.
Chapters:
0:00 A census report that was statistical nonsense
2:23 The quiet August 19 directive
4:13 Counting the phrases that disappeared
5:36 Steelmanning the rogue-scientist case
7:40 How statistics really get corrupted
10:19 The watchdog becomes a political hack
15:31 The one legal guardrail left
16:54 Stalin, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina
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The U.S. Canada Trade War Casts a Much Longer Shadow | Diving In
Canada just retaliated against President Trump's latest tariffs, and everyone wants to know how big the hit will be. Economist Justin Wolfers walks you through the whole U.S. Canada trade war, and lands on a surprising answer.
By the end, you'll understand why this trade war is small on paper, larger in reality, and what Justin would tell both Trump and Carney to do about it.
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Why Tariffs Can't Rebuild American Manufacturing | The Professor Is In
Why did Trump's tariffs fail? It's a competence problem, not just a trade-theory problem.
Economist Justin Wolfers answers your questions about why the Trump administration's tariffs earned straight F's on their own stated goals. His argument: the problem isn't only the economics of tariffs — it's chaotic, incoherent implementation. When a policy exists on Monday, is gone by Tuesday, and gets thrown out by a court on Thursday, you'd be crazy to build a 50-year factory around it. Across-the-board tariffs give you no leverage over China, targeting friendly Canada over fentanyl sets no clear incentives, and skipping Congress means the next president erases the whole thing with a pen. Justin warns the real lesson isn't "tariffs don't work" — it's that incompetent tariffs don't.
This is happening to you: two-to-one, Americans oppose these tariffs, and the higher prices land in your grocery cart and your next big purchase, not on foreigners. Justin also pushes back on "manufacturing fetishism" — arguing that what you actually want for your kids may be a keyboard, not steel-toed boots — and closes on why AI, unlike past economic shifts, may hit knowledge workers like you fast enough to really sting.
Chapters:
0:00 The report card: straight F's
1:10 How to raise your grade: study economics
2:38 Why chaos kills factory investment
3:41 Across-the-board tariffs give no leverage
9:17 No Congress, no lasting power
10:51 America's standing has fallen
11:46 Americans are on Canada's side
13:45 The manufacturing jobs fetish
18:03 Will AI do to white-collar work what robots did to factories?
This is an episode of …
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The Jobs Report Beat Expectations. Will The Fed Care?
The economy added 162,000 jobs in August — far above the 50,000 to 60,000 Wall Street expected — and Justin Wolfers is smiling, because this is genuinely good news. Unemployment sits at a low 4.1%, and we've now had six straight months of job growth, which is what a normal, healthy labor market looks like.
But Justin walks you through the asterisks that matter to your paycheck. Nominal wage growth has slipped to 3.1%, the lowest in years, which almost certainly means your real wages are falling as prices climb faster than your paycheck.
Justin also explains what this means as the Federal Reserve considers an interest rate hike.
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The Bond Sell-Off Isn’t the Scary Part | Diving In
Everyone's talking about the bond market, and Justin Wolfers is here to explain what's actually going on — without the panic. In this episode of Diving In, he strips the fancy words away: the bond market is just supply and demand for loans, and right now a lot of people want to borrow. When demand for loans goes up, the price of loans — the interest rate — goes up too.
Justin walks through the three forces pushing long-term interest rates higher.
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Who Actually Paid for the Trade War? | Diving In
Trump’s tariffs were supposed to do five things. So how did they actually score?
Justin Wolfers grades the tariff agenda against the administration’s own goals. Did tariffs create leverage? Did the trade deficit fall? Did factories come home? Did America get safer? Did the revenue deliver?
The answers: America’s trading partners already charged us around 3% on average before any of this started, so the “ripping us off” story was mostly imaginary. The celebrated Korea deal claimed credit for market access American exporters already had under KORUS — the negotiating equivalent of gifting someone their own umbrella and expecting a thank-you card. And the ten signed agreements the White House points to cover about 6% of U.S. goods exports, with no confirmation any of them are actually in force.
Then the numbers. The goods trade deficit hit a record $1.24 trillion in 2025, the first full year of the program. Manufacturing employment is about 62,000 jobs lower than when Trump returned to office. When the Dallas Fed asked 271 Texas manufacturers what tariffs would do to their business, only 5% planned to move production to the United States. Meanwhile, much of the tariff revenue is being refunded — to the importers of record, not to the families who paid at the checkout. Five promises, five tests, five fails.
Chapters:
1:04 Were we really being ripped off?
8:24 Did the trade deficit actually fall?
11:19 Did the factories come home?
14:15 Did tariffs make America safer?
16:55 Where did the tariff money go?
20:32 Why trade is cooperation
This is an episode of Diving In, the weekly Platypus Economics deep dive.
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Can You Sanction a Country That's Already Cut Off? | The Professor Is In
In this episode of the Professor Is In, Justin answers your questions about "Operation Economic Outcast," the White House plan to squeeze Iran by threatening its trading partners with sanctions and loss of dollar access.
The catch: the US already has roughly 6,000 sanctions on Iran and a naval blockade, so most of the country is severed already. New pressure only bites if third countries actually fall in line — and the biggest one, China, buys most of Iran's oil.
Justin calls China the Andre the Giant of this fight: to move it, the US would have to start a trade war with a third party country like China, Russia, or Turkey. That would inflict real pain on Americans. If Washington isn't willing to do that, the threat is bravado, not policy.
Diving In on "Economic D-Day": https://youtu.be/tOu7yQD9lAI?si=qtV0qp2FN8wD6i0v
Chapters: 1:19 Is today’s threat to Iran more powerful than the 1960’s threat to Cuba?
6:49 What happens if China doesn’t go along with it?
10:33 What are the economic benefits to countries that go along with this plan?
13:21 How seriously should we take the risk of dollar dominance ending?
This is an episode of The Professor Is In, where producer Augusta brings Justin your questions. Want your question answered next time?
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The Fed Chair Won't Talk (But Markets Listened Anyway) | Off the Clock
On this Fed-heavy episode of Off the Clock, Justin Wolfers and Bloomberg's Stacey Vanek Smith dig into new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's argument for a quieter, less transparent central bank — and why it doesn't hold up. Warsh defended saying less, insisting markets should take their cues from the economy instead of the Fed. Then his speech pushed expected interest rates sharply higher anyway.
Justin's point is simple: whether or not the Fed means to guide you, you're listening either way — so it's better to be clear. Stacey pushes back with the real case for silence, which is the tendency for forward guidance to create "glass handcuffs."
They also weigh the escalating-but-still-small Canada tariff fight (why $20 billion is tiny — until it isn't), the limits of "economic outcast" pressure on Iran, and a worrying dip in women's labor-force participation driven by rising child care costs and shrinking work-from-home flexibility.
Finally, in honor of the late, great Dolly Parton, Justin and Stacey discuss how she was somewhat of an economist herself – with economics permeating so much of her songbook and lasting legacy.
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Why the BLS Guardrails Held — and the Census Bureau's Failed | The Professor Is In
In this episode of the Professor Is In, Justin answers your questions from his earlier episode debunking the Census Bureau’s claim that 24,000 noncitizens voted in the 2020 election.
He starts by addressing the elephant in the room: even if the faulty claim were true – it couldn’t have swung anything. Biden won the popular vote by seven million. As for the decisive states: he won Arizona by 10,000 (the report alleges 1,100 fraudulent votes), Georgia by 12,000 (400 alleged), and Wisconsin by 21,000 (500 alleged). The math never gets close.
But the stakes here are far greater than any one report. The Census decides how many congressional representatives your state gets and underpins nearly every official number you rely on. When a statistical agency starts producing propaganda, Justin argues, you're on the same road as Argentina, Greece, and Russia — and your trust in every government figure, from inflation to your representation in Congress, is on the line.
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How To Fake a Voting Scandal | Diving In
The Census Bureau just published a report claiming 24,000 noncitizens illegally voted in the 2020 election. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers takes the report apart and shows why it reads less like statistics and more like propaganda. The document has no author, no report number, and no named reviewers — a flashing red light that career statisticians have refused to sign their names to it.
Justin also does the math: matching 128 million voter records to citizenship files without Social Security numbers means guessing who's who. Apply the Census Bureau's own historical false-match rate of 0.146% and you'd "find" about 21,000 apparent noncitizen voters — even if every single person voted legally. Add outdated naturalization records (the report itself flagged and fixed 64,000 such cases) and the whole 24,000 could vanish. It's counting smoke alarms and calling them fires.
Trusted government statistics are an essential piece of infrastructure on which American prosperity depends. If the institutions that tell you where poverty is rising or how the economy is doing get bent to serve whoever's in power, you lose the ability to hold that power to account — and that's a cost you pay whether you voted or not.
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America Is Reusing Cuba’s Sanctions Strategy on Iran | Diving In
Do sanctions on Iran actually work? Sixty years of the Cuba embargo say probably not.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just announced what he's calling an "economic D-Day" against Iran — a threat aimed not just at Tehran but at every foreign firm, bank, trader, and shipper that does business with it: choose Iran, or choose access to the U.S. dollar. Justin Wolfers walks you through what was actually announced and then rewinds to 1963, where the Kennedy administration used almost identical language to "tighten the noose" around Cuba. Same playbook, six decades apart.
Here's the problem: the CIA studied the Cuba embargo for 20 years and concluded the sanctions "have not met any of their objectives." Castro stayed in power until 2008; the regime is still there today. Broader research is just as sobering — even optimistic studies find sanctions produce political change only about a third of the time, and almost never regime change against an entrenched authoritarian. One study of Iranian influencers found broad sanctions actually increased pro-government sentiment.
Why should you care? Because sanctions don't stop at the missile factory. There's no border checkpoint that lets in baby formula but not weapons. When you choke an economy, food, medicine, and family remittances get squeezed too — and every time America uses dollar access as an ultimatum, other countries get one more reason to build a system that doesn't need us, quietly eroding the financial leverage that makes your dollar so powerful in the first place.
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The Economics of Feeling Ripped Off | The Professor Is In
Politicians keep promising to bring prices down. In this episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers explains why that's a terrible idea — and why it's not the same thing as slowing inflation. He walks through what actually happens if you force the price level down: wages have to fall too, stores go unprofitable, and the only reliable way to make it happen is to engineer a recession — possibly a depression. The sensible target isn't zero prices, but inflation low enough that you can forget about it.
Justin also digs into why your paycheck feels like it's losing the race even when, on average, it isn't. At least half of Americans saw wages beat prices last year — but the gains mostly go to people who switch jobs, and in today's low-hire, low-fire labor market, that door is barely open. So the raise you'd need to keep up is harder to reach right now, which could help explain why a record 71% of Americans expect prices to outrun their incomes (something that almost never actually happens).
What the $20 Burrito Debate Gets Wrong About Affordability https://omny.fm/shows/platypus-economics/burrito-gate-and-the-affordability-paradox-diving-in
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What the Heck is Going On In the Bond Market? | Diving In
Bond yields have jumped from a little over 1% just after COVID to more than 5%, and Justin Wolfers walks you through why that matters at your kitchen table. The short version: the U.S. government is borrowing an enormous amount of money, lining up at the bank ahead of you and me, and that pushes the price of borrowing — the interest rate — up for everyone.
Justin sorts the story into three parts: why everyone's suddenly talking about the bond market, what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is actually doing, and what it all signals. Two forces are driving yields up — heavy borrowing for the AI buildout, and a federal deficit at post-war highs outside of COVID and the Great Recession, even as the economy is doing okay. Markets are quietly asking whether the government is serious about paying them back.
Here's what's at stake for you: when the government crowds the credit line, the rate on your next mortgage, car loan, and credit card goes up, and a bigger interest bill each month means less cash to get by. Then there's Bessent's move to double a bond-buying program from $2 billion to $4 billion a day — routine plumbing, or an attempt to muffle the warning the bond market is sending? Justin's honest answer: right now, nobody knows.
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What the $20 Burrito Debate Gets Wrong About Affordability | Diving In
A college student said a burrito shouldn't cost $20, and suddenly everyone seemed to be arguing about affordability. In this latest installment of Diving In, Justin Wolfers uses that burrito as a metaphor to untangle a real puzzle: 95% of Americans think there's an affordability crisis, two-thirds say groceries are unaffordable — yet by early 2026, every measure of real pay is above where it stood before the 2022 inflation burst. Both things can be true, and Justin shows you how.
Using five different real-wage measures, the Atlanta Fed's tracker of the same workers over time, and price and wage growth data from 12 countries over 60 years, he shows that when prices rise, your wages almost always catch up — and pretty quickly. But since most people experience wage and price hikes as two separate acts in a psychological drama, it can feel like your raise got stolen. Now, a record 71% of Americans believe their income won’t keep pace with prices. And the bundle of bad policies raising the price of your burrito is making matters worse.
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One more thing: When I create these videos, I often crunch a few numbers in Stata, with whom I’ve got a paid partnership. Today, I used it to explore the relationship between rising prices and wages in America and 11 other countries.
Click through here: https://platypuseconomics.com/stata/wages_and_inflation_oecd_worksheet.pdf if you'd like to follow along!
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How Lab-Grown Diamonds Broke the Market | Off the Clock
Justin Wolfers and Bloomberg's Stacey Vanek Smith pick through a week of confusing economic news on the latest episode of Off the Clock.
First up, inflation. Inflation came in at 3.4% — not great, not terrible — but here's the part that stings: prices are still rising faster than wages and the average American paycheck buys less than it did a year ago. They also dig into the July jobs report and why it was a real jolt: the economy lost 23,000 jobs when forecasters expected a gain of 80,000, and earlier months got revised down too.
Then Stacey talks to Justin about how lab-grown diamonds have absolutely crushed prices in this luxury industry (a $6,000 stone now sells for $10 at Walmart). This prompted a fascinating discussion on the diamond-water paradox, thinking at the margin, and why the AI shock to "cognitive work" may be the labor market's version of the same thing.
Finally, Justin and Stacey cap off the episode with another round of Chart versus Chart. Be sure to vote for your favorite on the channel homepage for Platypus Economics.
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If AI Does Your Job, Who Gets Paid? | The Professor Is In
Justin Wolfers sits down for The Professor Is In to answer your follow-up questions about labor's declining share of income — the reason a soaring market can coexist with wages that feel stuck. He explains that this isn't just an American story: across industrialized countries, workers have been getting a smaller cut of the pie for decades, which points less to any one country's politics and more at shared forces — bigger "superstar" firms, weaker union bargaining power, and a shared intellectual culture across the developed world.
Justin also unpacks monopsony power — what happens to your wages when only a handful of employers are hiring near you — with the classic example of Hershey, Pennsylvania. Then he gets to what we can actually do about it: stronger, more constructive unions, Australia's superannuation system that turns workers into owners of the stock market, and the "MeganBot 2000" thought experiment that shows why AI could either be utopia or dystopia depending on one very important thing — ownership.
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No, the K-shaped Economy Isn't Over | Diving In
The stock market keeps breaking records, but your paycheck doesn't feel like it. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers explains that disconnect with one number: labor's share of income has fallen to 54.4 cents on the dollar, the lowest share on record. And it’s significantly less than the two-thirds that was common for most of the last century.
Justin fires up the actual data to stress-test the claim — accounting for depreciation and tax-driven accounting tricks. But the decline is real and still stands. Then he sizes what it means for you: a five-point drop in labor's share works out to about $10,000 a year in lost wages for the average worker — while the gains flow overwhelmingly to the very top, where the richest households collect over half of all capital income.
Why is this happening? Giant firms that grow sales faster than payroll, weaker worker bargaining power, and globalization that lets your job move elsewhere. And now AI could either make you more productive and better paid — or automate your job and hand the upside to owners. How we slice that pie is up to us.
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Cited Research:
The Rise of Pass-Throughs and the Decline of the Labor Share: https://zidar.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/toruqf3371/files/syzz2022.pdf
Not a Typical Firm: Capital–Labor Substitution and Firms’ Labor Shares: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/HubmerRestrepo_NotTypicalFirm_Oct2023.pdf
Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor: https://shapingwork.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-how-technology-displaces-and-reinstates-labor.pdf
One more thing: When I create these videos, I often crunch a few numbers in Stata, with whom I’ve got a paid partnership. Today, I used it to compare labor's share of income with and without depreciation.
You can follow along with me here: https://platypuseconomics.com/stata/labor_share_worksheet.pdf
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Inflation Is Still High. Just As We Thought. | Diving In
The newest inflation report is out, and Justin Wolfers walks you through what actually matters. Annual inflation is running at 3.4% — well above what the Fed wants, and high enough to explain why the checkout line still feels uncomfortable. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy to predict where prices are headed, sits at a better — but still high — 2.5%. July's monthly numbers came in almost exactly as economists expected, which is why the report is less "news" than confirmation: prices are still rising quickly, just about the way everyone thought they would.
Here's what it means for you. Prices are outpacing wages, so real (inflation-adjusted) pay has fallen over the past year — the average paycheck buys less than it did twelve months ago. Energy is the main culprit: gas is up 25% over the year, diesel 39%, and airfares have shot up on the back of it. If you're flying anytime soon, that ticket is a whole lot pricier. Justin also digs into the tariff story, the burrito discourse, a record 16% drop in lettuce prices, and the Fed's tough spot between stubborn inflation and slowing employment growth.
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AI's Biggest Problem May Be Its Pace | The Professor Is In
In this bonus-sized episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers uses a strange, wonderful case study — the collapse of artisanal bootmaking in 1850s England — to think through what AI will do to your work, your wages, and maybe even where you live. Economic historian Hillary Vipond found that even though a new technology let each worker produce four times as much, total bootmaking jobs barely budged. But two-thirds of the old occupations vanished and were replaced by new ones. The cordswainer disappeared; the factory foreman, machinist, and riveter arrived. In our moment, that's the translator seeing wages fall and the "prompt engineer" rising in their place.
The good news: a bigger pie usually means bigger servings for workers — China's incomes rose more than tenfold as it industrialized. The catch is pace. If AI really replaces half of white-collar work in five years, as some tech CEOs claim, that's a disruption bigger than COVID or the financial crisis. ustin's plain advice: become the most AI-savvy person in your workplace, keep your skills broad rather than narrow, and double down on the basics — because AI will not take your job, but someone using AI might.
Link to Hillary Vipond's original research: https://github.com/HillaryVipond/JMP/blob/main/Technological_Unemployment_in_Victorian_Britain_VipondH.pdf
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The July Jobs Report Should Worry You | Diving In
The July jobs report just dropped, and it's time to worry. Markets expected around 80,000 new jobs — instead, the economy lost 23,000, and revisions to the prior two months erased another 100,000 we thought we had. In this video, Justin Wolfers break down what's really going on beneath the headline: the drop in government jobs might be statistical noise, essentially all private-sector job growth is coming from healthcare and social assistance, and the falling unemployment rate is actually bad news once you look at labor force participation.
Justin also digs into a wonkier puzzle — why the payroll and household surveys are telling two different stories about American employment — and compare the US to Canada, where job growth has been roughly four times faster despite a tariff war hitting them harder. Plus: what this all means for the Fed's next move, and why (despite what you may have heard) these numbers are not being faked.
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How Early Access to Trump’s Truths Will Drain Ordinary Investors | Diving In
Justin unpacks the new $100,000-a-year Truth Social API—a special "pipe" that will allow the president's posts to hit Wall Street computers a second or so before the rest of us see them. In this episode of Diving In, he explains why one second is an eternity for a high-frequency trading computer: it can read a post announcing a strike on Iran, figure out what it means for markets, and sell before the news reaches your phone.
Justin lays out three problems. It's bad for democracy — a decision your taxes paid for gets sold to whoever writes a six-figure check, to a company in which President Trump is a major shareholder. It's corrupt on its face — the president is monetizing information he holds only because he works for you. And it's bad economics: once you know some traders have paid for an edge (remember teleprompter guy?), you stop wanting to trade at all, and markets that run on trust start to wither.
At the end of the day, those Wall Street firms will get rich, and that money has to come from somewhere. And if you're not the one with the early feed, it's probably coming from your retirement account.
(A confession: I think that I said that users pay the President's company $100,000 per year. I've subsequently read the price is $100,000 per month. So it's still a problem, but 12 times larger.)
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What Victorian Bootmakers Can Teach Us About The Future of Work | Diving In
When the CEO of Anthropic warns AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs, it's easy to picture the destruction. Justin Wolfers wants you to picture the other half of the story. In this episode of Diving In, he uses a carefully researched study of Victorian bootmaking — where a labor-saving sewing machine let each worker make four times as many boots — to show how a technology can completely remake an industry while total employment barely moves.
The numbers are almost eerie: about 220,000 bootmakers in 1851, and 213,000 in 1911. Yet beneath that calm surface, nearly everything changed. Cheaper boots meant more boots (that's Jevons paradox), old craft occupations vanished, and an almost identical number of new factory jobs appeared — in new places, done by the next generation. The incumbents mostly got to retire in their old trade.
None of this predicts what AI will do to your job. But it widens the range of outcomes you should take seriously, and it flags the one thing that may matter most: the pace of change. If AI moves slowly, the creative side of creative destruction has time to arrive. If it moves fast, that gentler adjustment gets much harder. Either way, it’s important to also ask what gets created, not just what gets destroyed.
Link to Hillary Vipond's original research: https://github.com/HillaryVipond/JMP/blob/main/Technological_Unemployment_in_Victorian_Britain_VipondH.pdf
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Economics Is Not a Subject — It's a Toolkit | Economics Matters
This is a conversation between Justin and Larry Kotlikoff, fellow economist and host of the Economics Matters podcast. And it was a fun one, in which Larry encouraged Justin to look both backwards and forwards. Backward at some of the work he's most proud of, and forward at the growing challenges we face as an economy and a nation.
In the process, Justin and Larry philosophized over the role of economics and the duty of economists in helping tackle some of the most pressing issues of our time. This was the kind of conversation that reminded Justin why he fell in love with economics: it’s not the models or the math, but the chance to make sense of the lives we actually live.
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Larry's Substack: https://larrykotlikoff.substack.com/
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Tariffs, Take Three: The Dumbest Round Yet | Off the Clock
Justin and Stacey are back for Off the Clock — helping you figure out what economic news to actually worry about, what you can safely ignore, and where to find some silver linings.
This week was a big one for economic news and data. Justin starts by explaining to Stacey why this latest round of tariffs is the dumbest one yet. And Stacey brings in some reporting to highlight how small businesses are struggling under the weight of constant chaos and confusion.
Then they dig into the Fed and why markets reacted so poorly to Handsome Kevin’s press conference. Finally, Justin and Stacey discuss the latest, lackluster GDP numbers and compete in a “Chart vs. Chart” contest that you get to be the judge of.
02:42 More tariff chaos and confusion
23:53 The Fed vs The Market
34:16 A disappointing GDP report
41:05 Chart vs Chart — A Friendly Competition
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How SNAP's New Rules Make Eligible Families Go Hungry | The Professor Is In
Recent changes to SNAP quietly cut food assistance from 4 million Americans — 1.5 million of them children (plus elderly, disabled, and other eligible recipients who were never the intended target). In this follow-up to his earlier video Diving In to SNAP cuts, Justin Wolfers answers follow-up questions and explains how the policy actually plays out for real people.
Justin walks through why administrative burdens do so much damage: when it's harder to apply, appeal, or bring in paperwork, the people who fall off are often the ones who need help the most. He unpacks the state incentives too: tell caseworkers to reduce payment errors but say nothing about wrongful denials, states get cautious and just boot folks off. And because states run balanced budgets, shifting SNAP costs to them breaks its role as an automatic stabilizer — in the next recession, when more people need food, spending will fall exactly when it should rise.
The stakes are personal. That $6-a-day benefit is groceries for a neighbor, a kid at your child's school, a friend going through a divorce whose income just cratered. And Justin's argues that if Americans understood who's losing help and why, they might feel differently about it.
Six Dollars a Day Is Disappearing For Millions: https://omny.fm/shows/platypus-economics/the-biggest-economic-story-nobodys-talking-about-diving-in
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The Lawyer’s Theory of Trade | Diving In
Donald Trump's trade representative Jamison Greer thinks about trade like a litigator: clients, injuries, bad actors, and remedies. Justin Wolfers takes Greer's own words from his recent interview with The Daily and shows why that worldview rests on muddled thinking about what trade actually is — and why it ends up costing you.
In this Diving In episode, Justin lays out the tells and discusses the bottom line. The numbers are blunt: New York Fed research finds roughly 90% of the tariff burden falls on U.S. firms and consumers, and low-income households bear a disproportionate share. Census data shows imports from China fell — but rose nearly one-for-one from the rest of the region. A lot of trade just changed addresses.
By the end you'll have a portable BS detector for any trade argument — from Trump, Vance, Greer, or your uncle at Thanksgiving.
The Daily Episode With Jamieson Greer: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/20/podcasts/the-daily/more-trump-tariffs-are-coming.html
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One more thing: When I create these videos, I often crunch a few numbers in Stata, with whom I’ve got a paid partnership. Today, I used it to explore our trade relationship with China and the eleven members of ASEAN.
Click through here: https://platypuseconomics.com/stata/trading_places_worksheet_6.pdf and you can work through the steps I followed, and build your statistical mastery.
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