Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham.

The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it.

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big?

06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4%

08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling

11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview

13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA

14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio

16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina

17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham

22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along

26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common

27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins

30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down

33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012

35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points

36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle

38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998

41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa

43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire

45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army

47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war

48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself

52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed

54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership

57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened

59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system

1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga

1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill

1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters

1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction

1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first 

1:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip

1:21:00 #1 North Carolina

1:21:45 #2 Alaska

1:22:15 #3 Texas

1:23:45 #4 Ohio

1:25:30 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan

1:27:30 Ask Chuck

1:27:45 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race?

1:30:00 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote?

1:33:00 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators?

1:35:15 College football preview

1:40:30 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college football

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reads the tea leaves on a building Democratic wave: primary turnout is up 35% over 2022 while Republican turnout is down 4%, and Todd argues voter behavior is a far better predictor than polling — though it's a tea leaf, not a guarantee. He then digs into an underappreciated dynamic that could decide Senate control: governor's races make the weather. Texas, Chuck argues, is now more plausible for Democrats than Iowa. And South Carolina, which Republicans never expected to worry about, just got more expensive after Ralph Norman told supporters to write him in rather than back Darline Graham.

The second half is a five-alarm fire at the Pentagon. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned this week over Hegseth blocking Army modernization by firing the generals leading it — the latest in a purge that has left the Army without a chief of staff for months and cut four-star positions from ten to five, all during an active war. Chuck’s read is that this is a deliberate gutting and argues the fired and recently resigned generals have an obligation to speak up, because silence doesn't protect the institution. He closes with what he calls the cancer in American politics — the House — using Jared Golden's lobster fishing bill as the perfect illustration: Golden had to vote for a Republican rule just to get a floor vote on his own legislation, then got accused by leadership of a breach of trust for representing his constituents. That's the disease, Chuck argues, and Democrats will inherit every bit of it.

Documentarian Brian Knappenberger joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Turning Point: Generation 9/11, out on Netflix September 2nd — a film built around a striking fact: more than half of Americans were either born after 2001 or were too young to remember it. Knappenberger's aim was to bring that generation into the moment, capturing not just the attack but the fear and uncertainty that followed, including the attacks everyone braced for that never came. He points to a news clip in the film where 63% of Americans said they'd trade freedom for security, and to the AUMF passed almost immediately with Barbara Lee as the lone no vote. He and Chuck revisit the genuine moment of global unity — the only time NATO's Article 5 has ever been triggered — and Bush's real effort to reassure American Muslims, progress on Islamophobia that Knappenberger argues has since been squandered.

The back half is a hard-nosed accounting. Driving the Taliban out was a success; the Iraq war took America's eye off the ball; intelligence agencies genuinely do communicate better now. But al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people who exploited a vulnerability, and the domino effect produced ISIS, something far larger. Knappenberger talks about interviewing kids who lost parents that day — including a pilot's daughter still trolled online by a Truther movement that social media made possible — and about Marines at Abbey Gate, many not yet alive on 9/11, expressing real conflict about what it was all for. Chuck’s question hangs over it: after 25 years of Pentagon budgets, what exactly did we get? And with no meaningful congressional oversight of the Iran war, the founders' decision that a king shouldn't declare wars feels less like history than a warning. Knappenberger's hope is simple — that we remember the fear well enough not to repeat the mistakes it produced.

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and previews week 1 in college football.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

04:15 A Democratic wave is building… but how big?

06:15 Dem turnout up 35% from 2022, GOP turnout down 4%

08:30 A tea leaf, not a guarantee — and why behavior beats polling

11:15 New Hampshire primaries preview

13:15 Senate control may be decided by governor races in MI, TX and IA

14:30 Ramaswamy is the wrong avatar for a Republican to win Ohio

16:45 Republicans didn't think they'd have to worry about South Carolina

17:30 Ralph Norman tells supporters to write him in rather than back Graham

22:15 Governor's races make the weather and drag Senate candidates along

26:00 Ticket splitting hasn't disappeared since 2010, but it's less common

27:15 Breaking down the penalty for various candidate sins

30:00 Ken Paxton needs Abbott to win big — and Abbott's trending down

33:15 Todd Akin's voters fled to the Libertarians in 2012

35:00 El-Sayed's penalty isn't scandal, it's ideological — 2-3 points

36:00 Jocelyn Benson is running the best campaign of the cycle

38:45 Iowa hasn't split a governor/senate race since 1998

41:45 Texas looks more plausible for Democrats than Iowa

43:45 Problems at the Pentagon should be a five-alarm fire

45:30 Hegseth forced out the leaders modernizing the Army

47:45 Hollowing out the military during an active war

48:45 Hegseth wants the Pentagon to be a reality show about himself

52:00 Assets needed to deter Russia & China are being removed

54:15 Military leaders must be able to disagree with civilian leadership

57:00 An obligation to warn the country if the military is being weakened

59:45 The House of Representatives is the cancer in our political system

1:03:30 The Jared Golden lobster bill saga

1:06:30 Golden voted for a GOP rule to get a vote on his own bill

1:09:45 Leadership accused him of breaching trust… by representing their voters

1:13:00 If Democrats win the House, they inherit all of this dysfunction

1:18:00 The House is the cancer we have to cure first 

1:22:45 Brian Knappenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:25:15 Many Americans are too young to remember 9/11 well

1:27:15 9/11 is moving from a lived memory into history

1:30:45 Wanted to capture the fear and uncertainty of that period in time

1:34:45 Want the next generation not to fall into the same trap of fear & suspicion

1:39:45 The rally around the flag effect after the attacks

1:42:30 There was a real moment of unity worldwide before the divisiveness

1:43:00 The only time Article V of NATO was triggered was from 9/11

1:47:15 Pre-Trump the country had made real progress on Islamaphobia

1:48:00 Talked to a lot of kids who lost parents on 9/11 for the doc

1:49:15 Social media emerged after 9/11 and the “Truther” movement came with it

1:51:15 Driving the Taliban out of Afghanistan was a positive

1:51:45 We took our eye off the ball with the Iraq war

1:54:45 Have we sufficiently answered why Bin Laden attacked us

1:59:00 The real damage was the divisiveness and attrition of two wars

2:00:00 Al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people, exploited a vulnerability

2:01:15 The domino effect created ISIS, which is much larger than Al-Qaeda

2:06:00 Marines at Abbey Gate express feeling conflicted

2:08:30 25 years of Pentagon budgets has gotten us…what?

2:10:45 There seems to be no congressional oversight with the Iran war

2:11:15 What other Turning Point projects do you have in the works?

2:12:45 Ukraine war is a weird blend of history and modern technology

2:15:45 9/11 changed our perception of ourselves and our vulnerabilities

2:20:00 ToddCast Top 5 senate seats most likely to flip

2:20:30 #1 North Carolina

2:21:15 #2 Alaska

2:21:45 #3 Texas

2:23:15 #4 Ohio

2:25:00 #5 Tie between Maine & Michigan

2:27:00 Ask Chuck

2:27:15 Could the Bradley effect be in play in the Texas senate race?

2:29:30 Should congress be doing more to protect the mail-in vote?

2:32:30 Thoughts on proposal to add 12 at large senators?

2:34:45 College football preview

2:40:00 Column on Lane Kiffin being the “bad boy” of college football

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Documentarian Brian Knappenberger joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Turning Point: Generation 9/11, out on Netflix September 2nd — a film built around a striking fact: more than half of Americans were either born after 2001 or were too young to remember it. Knappenberger's aim was to bring that generation into the moment, capturing not just the attack but the fear and uncertainty that followed, including the attacks everyone braced for that never came. He points to a news clip in the film where 63% of Americans said they'd trade freedom for security, and to the AUMF passed almost immediately with Barbara Lee as the lone no vote. He and Chuck revisit the genuine moment of global unity — the only time NATO's Article 5 has ever been triggered — and Bush's real effort to reassure American Muslims, progress on Islamophobia that Knappenberger argues has since been squandered.

The back half is a hard-nosed accounting. Driving the Taliban out was a success; the Iraq war took America's eye off the ball; intelligence agencies genuinely do communicate better now. But al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people who exploited a vulnerability, and the domino effect produced ISIS, something far larger. Knappenberger talks about interviewing kids who lost parents that day — including a pilot's daughter still trolled online by a Truther movement that social media made possible — and about Marines at Abbey Gate, many not yet alive on 9/11, expressing real conflict about what it was all for. Chuck’s question hangs over it: after 25 years of Pentagon budgets, what exactly did we get? And with no meaningful congressional oversight of the Iran war, the founders' decision that a king shouldn't declare wars feels less like history than a warning. Knappenberger's hope is simple — that we remember the fear well enough not to repeat the mistakes it produced.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Brian Knappenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:30 Many Americans are too young to remember 9/11 well

04:30 9/11 is moving from a lived memory into history

08:00 Wanted to capture the fear and uncertainty of that period in time

12:00 Want the next generation not to fall into the same trap of fear & suspicion

17:00 The rally around the flag effect after the attacks

19:45 There was a real moment of unity worldwide before the divisiveness 

20:15 The only time Article V of NATO was triggered was from 9/11

24:30 Pre-Trump the country had made real progress on Islamaphobia

25:15 Talked to a lot of kids who lost parents on 9/11 for the doc

26:30 Social media emerged after 9/11 and the “Truther” movement came with it

28:30 Driving the Taliban out of Afghanistan was a positive

29:00 We took our eye off the ball with the Iraq war

32:00 Have we sufficiently answered why Bin Laden attacked us

36:15 The real damage was the divisiveness and attrition of two wars

37:15 Al-Qaeda was only a few hundred people, exploited a vulnerability

38:30 The domino effect created ISIS, which is much larger than Al-Qaeda

43:15 Marines at Abbey Gate express feeling conflicted

45:45 25 years of Pentagon budgets has gotten us…what?

48:00 There seems to be no congressional oversight with the Iran war

48:30 What other Turning Point projects do you have in the works?

50:00 Ukraine war is a weird blend of history and modern technology

53:00 9/11 changed our perception of ourselves and our vulnerabilities

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inside ten weeks to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza start with the race Republicans have suddenly woken up to: Texas. With Talarico sitting on $21.5 million to Paxton's $1.75 million, Cornyn refusing to raise money in-state, and John Kennedy telling Fox News flatly that the Senate doesn't have the money budgeted for Texas, the guys argue the GOP's comfort blanket — that this is a Paxton problem, not a party problem — is wrong. Chuck's bet: no Republican on the Texas statewide ticket breaks 55%. From there they turn to the issue that's moved faster than either expected, data centers, framed by Trump's Monday Truth Social post declaring that communities rejecting them "want to end up being backwards and poor" and urging the country to "let Data Reign." Chuck and Chris place it in the rare category of issues voters force onto politicians rather than the reverse — the opioid crisis being the last one — and track the fallout from Wisconsin, where Tom Tiffany is already hitting David Crowley on it, to Shapiro and Hochul reversing course, to the blue-collar trade unions now cutting the other way.

The heart of the episode is a long strategic read of the map. The Atlantic reported Trump wants to deploy MAGA Inc's roughly $400 million on ads touting his own second term, telling voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" — and Chuck makes the counterintuitive case that it may be defensible where the fight actually is, even as they debate whether it gooses MAGA turnout or hands independents another reason to break left. They walk the four-seat path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, why Michigan is the state that keeps Democrats up at night, and what Abdul El-Sayed's ongoing Hasan Piker problem is costing him thirty days after the primary. Chris picks Texas as the GOP's nightmare on sheer cost; Chuck picks Iowa, where three House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship all sit on the table. Plus: the 2028er welcome in both red and blue America (it's not who you'd guess), Trump's demand that the FCC punish Kristen Welker over a single mild remark, a blistering segment on Pete Hegseth and a munitions shortage nobody in Congress seems to be asking about, and the Nats' blown ninth-inning lead as a season in miniature.

Timeline:

00:00 Inside ten weeks — and a college football appetizer

01:00 Why college football has become prime political ad real estate

02:00 The ads they spotted: anti-Whatley in NC, anti-Talarico in Texas

03:00 Republicans wake up to a real race a real money problem in Texas

04:00 The cash disparity — $21.5M for Talarico, $1.75M for Paxton

05:00 The Texas governor's race 

06:00 A one-party state can't blame a party that doesn't exist

07:00 Is Paxton the problem, or is it the environment?

08:00 Trump's data center post: "let Data Reign"

10:00 Reid Wilson called data centers the sleeper issue six weeks ago

11:00 Washington is only discovering what voters have said for months

12:00 David Wallace-Wells & data centers as a vessel for tech frustration

13:00 Wisconsin: Tiffany already attacking Crowley on data centers

14:00 Big tech is the new big Pharma 

15:00 The counter-trend: blue-collar trade unions saying these are jobs

16:00 Why is Trump this pro-data-center in an anti-data-center moment?

19:00 The Atlantic: Trump wants to spend the $400M and run his own campaign

20:00 "Pretend I am on the ballot"

21:00 Wave-year history: Clinton in '00, Bush in '06, Obama in '10 and '14

22:00 Where Trump can't go: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan

23:00 The four-seat path — North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska

24:00 The fifth state problem: Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana

25:00 The Darline Graham rescue mission and what it proved

26:00 Democratic gains are a given — the question is wave or tsunami

27:00 This election is about the cost of living 

28:00 Cook's toss-ups always break in one direction

31:00 What if Republicans win New Hampshire and Democrats win Texas?

34:00 The state that keeps Democrats up at night

35:00 El-Sayed is still doing cleanup thirty days after the primary

37:00 The libertarian-candidate play red-state Democrats aren't running

38:00 The Hasan Piker problem

39:00 The Detroit synagogue comment and the apology he did make

42:00 The Trump-and-white-supremacists parallel

43:00 Alaska as the wild card: ranked choice, two Sullivans, Peltola

45:00 Josh Turek is a very hard candidate to attack

47:00 Rob Sand deserves 30% of the buzz Ossoff is getting

49:00 The Obama-in-'06 comparison and the asses-in-seats metric

50:00 Newsom went to Michigan and couldn't find anyone to campaign with

52:00 Trump demands the FCC punish Kristen Welker

54:00 What the meltdown says about how fragile he is

57:00 The Maggie Haberman attack, 48 hours apart

58:00 Hegseth gets the worst week in Washington

59:00 Sean Parnell, the influencer hires & a very online secretary

1:00:00 The cabinet primary: Lutnick, RFK Jr., Gabbard

1:02:00 Are we really out of munitions after one excursion against Iran?

1:03:00 Lake Ontario gets more coverage than troops without weapons

1:05:00 The Nats blow a 2-0 ninth-inning lead to the Marlins

1:07:00 No bullpen help at the deadline, and here we are

1:07:00 Becoming Statler and Waldorf

1:08:00 Tuesday night live: the Massachusetts primary

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues the entire 2026 election is collapsing into a single issue — prices — and that every other story is just a contributing factor. The problem for Republicans is that the economy is going to get worse, not better: price pressure is building across the food supply, the Iran war has disrupted fuel and fertilizer, JP Morgan is warning food inflation could hit 5% by 2027, and Kevin Warsh is going to be forced to raise rates, which will infuriate a president who Chuck argues is focused mainly on his own financial interests and could produce genuinely 1970s-like conditions. Chuck brings back reporting from a visit to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch to explain why beef prices can't be fixed by turning a dial: raising cattle is a years-long process, the American herd is historically small, only four companies process the country's beef and capacity is shrinking, and importing more is a short-term patch that damages domestic supply long term. It's the pattern of the whole administration — solving a price problem today by making it worse tomorrow, while the cost of producing food rises because of decisions Trump himself made. Underneath it all sits the number that explains the mood of the country: corporate pre-tax profits are at their highest share since just after World War II while workers take home the smallest share since the 1950s. There is no economic boom for most Americans, Washington keeps misreading the anger, and Trump's own voters are getting hit hardest at the pump.

The war, Chuck argues, isn't just making life expensive — it's making America vulnerable. Defense leaders are warning Hegseth the Iran campaign is unsustainable: barely a quarter of the Navy's destroyer fleet is ready to deploy, advanced munitions stocks are largely burned through, and equipment and personnel are worn out, meaning fighting this war has left the country less capable of fighting the next one. China is the clear winner of Trump's second term, and Chuck’s real worry is Putin testing NATO while looking at an American president desperate for any win. Then there's Venezuela, where Trump has announced the U.S. has seized the country's oil reserves — a move Chuck calls British-empire-style imperialism and highway robbery at gunpoint, asking the obvious question: if Putin did this to a neighbor, what would we call it? The standard shouldn't change because we're the ones doing it, the windfall ought to benefit Venezuelans, and it's worth asking who's actually negotiating this and who stands to profit. It's exactly why two-thirds of South America resents the United States, and why Trump's imperial turn will only compound a credibility problem that's already severe. Chuck closes somewhere more personal: his old high school, Miami's Killian, is down from 3,000 students to 400. The kids didn't disappear — school choice killed the ambition to attend. Big public high schools once defined their communities and forced people to know each other; we traded that for choice and specialization without ever asking what a public school is actually for. We didn't try to fix public education, Chuck argues. We empowered people to escape it — and in doing so gutted one of the real sources of American strength.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the assassination of President William McKinley and the striking parallels between modern America, and America in 1901. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 With return of college football, comes a ton of political advertising

05:00 Football attracts a wide array of potential voters

06:30 Pro-Paxton ad in Texas made China the central theme, blamed Talarico

07:30 GOP has controlled Texas for decades, blaming Talarico is ridiculous

10:00 Dems dismiss the ad as ridiculous, but some people will believe it

12:15 Massachusetts primaries coming up on Tuesday, Sept 1st

14:15 The electorate will be voting on one issue… prices & affordability

15:00 Every other issue is a contributing factor to the price issues

15:45 The problem for Republicans is the economy will get worse, not better

16:30 Price pressures are building across the food supply

16:45 Iran war is causing major issues with the fuel & fertilizer supply

18:00 JP Morgan warns food inflation could reach 5% by 2027

18:30 Kevin Warsh will be forced to raise rates, Trump will be furious

19:00 Trump is only worried about his own personal financial interest

19:45 Fed raising rates to combat inflation will create 1970’s like conditions

20:15 Went to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch for Noosphere interview

21:45 Beef prices can’t just be adjusted with the turn of a dial

22:15 Raising cattle is a long term process & our beef herd is historically small

23:00 Trump knows beef prices are hurting him & wanted to import more

24:15 Importing is a short term solution, hurts the long term domestic supply

25:00 Only 4 companies process American beef & we’re losing capacity

25:30 How we can lower beef prices and boost domestic production

26:30 Trump tries to solve price issues in the short term, makes it worse long term

27:00 The price to produce food is rising because of decisions Trump made

27:45 Corporate pre-tax profits are at highest share since aftermath of WW2

28:15 Workers are getting lowest take home share of profits since 1950s

29:00 This is why voters across the spectrum are so pissed off at the system

29:30 There’s no economic boom for most Americans

30:15 Washington continues to misunderstand the anger of the voters

30:45 Trump voters are getting hardest hit by higher gas prices

32:30 Iran war isn’t just making things expensive, it’s making us more vulnerable

33:00 Defense leaders warning Hegseth the Iran war is unsustainable

33:45 Hegseth has put America in more danger than it’s been in since Cold War

34:15 Barely 1/4th of the Navy’s destroyer fleet is ready to deploy

34:45 We’ve burned through most of our advanced munitions

35:15 We’ve worn out our military equipment and personnel

36:00 Fighting this war has made us less capable of fighting the next war

36:30 China has been the biggest winner of Trump’s second term

37:00 What are we no longer willing to do because of the Iran war?

38:00 We’ve spent all this money on the military… and we’re tapped out?

38:30 We should be incredibly concerned about Putin testing NATO

39:15 Putin sees an American president desperate for a win

40:00 Trump announced that we’ve seized Venezuela’s oil reserves

40:45 This feels like British empire style imperialism

42:00 If Putin had done this to another country… what would we call it?

42:30 The standards shouldn’t be different because WE are doing it

43:30 Who is doing this negotiation and who stands to benefit?

44:30 Shouldn’t the windfall from Venezuelan oil benefit Venezuelans?

45:00 Trump is taking Venezuela’s oil at gunpoint, it’s highway robbery

46:00 This is why 2/3rd’s of South America hates the United States

46:30 Trump wants to make America and empire… and the world will hate us

48:00 This compounds America’s credibility problem globally

49:00 The world is only going to hate America & Americans more due to Trump

51:00 Chuck’s high school, Killian is down to 400 students from 3,000

51:45 The kids didn’t disappear, school choice killed ambition to attend there

53:00 Big successful public high schools defined their communities

54:30 Connection between community and schools has broken down

55:00 School choice creates communities not based in their neighborhood

56:00 We haven’t asked “What do we want a public school to do for a community?”

56:45 A public school is central to creating a local community

57:30 We trade choice and specialization, for a community that isn’t forced to interact

59:00 Killian’s community is still a good one, but the character changed

1:00:15 What exactly is public education for? Is it purely for kids' education?

1:01:00 The public school system was a source of our power… and we’ve gutted it

1:01:30 We didn’t try to fix public ed, we tried to empower people to escape it

1:03:45 We created more choices, but did we make education better?

1:05:45 We lost a place where we were forced to get to know each other

1:09:00 ToddCast Time Machine - The Assassination of William McKinley

1:09:30 Of all presidential assassinations, Americans know the least about this one

1:10:00 The assassin was Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist who felt system was unjust

1:10:45 After McKinley died, Teddy Roosevelt became president

1:11:15 Czolgosz actually produced some of the political change he wanted

1:12:00 Modern America echoes America in 1901

1:13:00 Czolgosz saw political assassinations create change in Europe

1:14:45 Other anarchists thought Czolgosz was too committed, maybe a plant

1:15:15 Emma Goldman argues that societal conditions explain the assassination

1:16:00 When people conclude politics won’t solve problems, they look to alternatives

1:16:45 The assassination happened at a fair showing celebrating technological advances

1:17:30 The United States was emerging as a world power, but there were two Americas

1:18:00 One America saw dynamism, the other saw exploitation

1:18:30 The setting of the assassination was almost poetic

1:19:15 Doctors treating McKinley were too afraid to use new X-ray technology

1:20:15 Lincoln’s son was actually nearby during the assassination

1:20:45 Roosevelt was installed as VP by party bosses to get rid of him

1:21:30 Roosevelt sworn in at age 42, and understood the conditions for political radicalism

1:22:00 Roosevelt argues for the “Square Deal” and goes after concentrated corporate power

1:23:00 The uncomfortable truth: Does assassination provide the sought political change?

1:23:45 Lincoln and JFK’s assassination both changed the political timeline

1:25:00 Czolgosz was convicted and executed weeks after McKinley’s death

1:25:30 Congress passes the Anarchist Exclusion Act, Goldman is deported

1:27:00 The forces that produced Czolgosz weren’t confined to America

1:27:30 Roosevelt’s policies helped prevent a Russian-style revolution

1:28:00 Roosevelt argues capitalism has to be regulated and restrained

1:29:15 America in 2026 isn’t America 1901, but it does rhyme

1:30:15 Ask Chuck

1:30:30 What do you make of James Talarico’s status in Texas?

1:36:30 Thoughts on Project 2025, is it a threat and is Trump following it?

1:38:45 Do you think the Trump administration will still act on Cuba?

1:41:00 Why not make the Attorney General an elected position?

1:44:45 Do you see your political independence as a protest against duopoly?

1:49:00 Takeaways from first week of college football

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues the entire 2026 election is collapsing into a single issue — prices — and that every other story is just a contributing factor. The problem for Republicans is that the economy is going to get worse, not better: price pressure is building across the food supply, the Iran war has disrupted fuel and fertilizer, JP Morgan is warning food inflation could hit 5% by 2027, and Kevin Warsh is going to be forced to raise rates, which will infuriate a president who Chuck argues is focused mainly on his own financial interests and could produce genuinely 1970s-like conditions. Chuck brings back reporting from a visit to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch to explain why beef prices can't be fixed by turning a dial: raising cattle is a years-long process, the American herd is historically small, only four companies process the country's beef and capacity is shrinking, and importing more is a short-term patch that damages domestic supply long term. It's the pattern of the whole administration — solving a price problem today by making it worse tomorrow, while the cost of producing food rises because of decisions Trump himself made. Underneath it all sits the number that explains the mood of the country: corporate pre-tax profits are at their highest share since just after World War II while workers take home the smallest share since the 1950s. There is no economic boom for most Americans, Washington keeps misreading the anger, and Trump's own voters are getting hit hardest at the pump.

The war, Chuck argues, isn't just making life expensive — it's making America vulnerable. Defense leaders are warning Hegseth the Iran campaign is unsustainable: barely a quarter of the Navy's destroyer fleet is ready to deploy, advanced munitions stocks are largely burned through, and equipment and personnel are worn out, meaning fighting this war has left the country less capable of fighting the next one. China is the clear winner of Trump's second term, and Chuck’s real worry is Putin testing NATO while looking at an American president desperate for any win. Then there's Venezuela, where Trump has announced the U.S. has seized the country's oil reserves — a move Chuck calls British-empire-style imperialism and highway robbery at gunpoint, asking the obvious question: if Putin did this to a neighbor, what would we call it? The standard shouldn't change because we're the ones doing it, the windfall ought to benefit Venezuelans, and it's worth asking who's actually negotiating this and who stands to profit. It's exactly why two-thirds of South America resents the United States, and why Trump's imperial turn will only compound a credibility problem that's already severe. Chuck closes somewhere more personal: his old high school, Miami's Killian, is down from 3,000 students to 400. The kids didn't disappear — school choice killed the ambition to attend. Big public high schools once defined their communities and forced people to know each other; we traded that for choice and specialization without ever asking what a public school is actually for. We didn't try to fix public education, Chuck argues. We empowered people to escape it — and in doing so gutted one of the real sources of American strength.

Then, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck Toddcast in his final months in office and, freed from ever facing voters again, says exactly what he thinks. The headline is his reversal on capital punishment: DeWine helped write Ohio's death penalty statute as a state senator in 1981 and defended it as attorney general, but in June he called on the legislature to abolish it, saying the moral justification he once had simply no longer exists. He walks Chuck through the practical case — roughly 20 years on average from sentencing to execution, a process that structurally cannot be sped up — and the harder question a Republican has to answer about whether you can be both pro-life and pro-death penalty. That flows into a broader argument about criminal justice that DeWine says has been driven by emotion rather than logic: truly violent offenders are a small percentage of the prison population and those are the people who need to be removed from society, but it's in society's direct self-interest to educate and rehabilitate everyone else. He's equally out of step with his party on immigration, arguing America needs legal immigrants, that we've been educating them and then failing to keep them, that Ohio's economic gains have come from immigrants, and that they're critical to caring for an aging population. On Springfield, DeWine is direct: the Haitian population created real challenges for the community, but they work hard, and it is not in America's interest to deport people who are here and working.

The conversation turns to the economy and the state's political future. DeWine calls the Canada trade war a genuine problem for Ohio — Canada is a major customer — and argues the country needs a real balance between domestic manufacturing and importing rather than a grudge match. On the data center boom reshaping Ohio politics, he says tech companies have an obligation to invest in the communities they move into, notes the technology has improved and no longer requires as much water, and makes the case that nuclear power is what will actually have to underwrite the buildout. He and Chuck get into whether there's a genuine divide between the two factions of the Ohio GOP, and DeWine offers a thoughtful answer about how the nationalization of politics has flattened the local distinctions that once existed inside both parties — and how that nationalization is now in everyone's face every single day. He takes ownership of the COVID shutdown decisions (the buck stopped with him), assesses whether Ohio is genuinely back to purple status with both the governor and Senate races going down to the wire, weighs in on whether the state is in good hands with either Vivek Ramaswamy or Amy Acton — and, of course, whether this is finally Joe Burrow's year.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the assassination of President William McKinley and the striking parallels between modern America, and America in 1901. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 With return of college football, comes a ton of political advertising

05:00 Football attracts a wide array of potential voters

06:30 Pro-Paxton ad in Texas made China the central theme, blamed Talarico

07:30 GOP has controlled Texas for decades, blaming Talarico is ridiculous

10:00 Dems dismiss the ad as ridiculous, but some people will believe it

12:15 Massachusetts primaries coming up on Tuesday, Sept 1st

14:15 The electorate will be voting on one issue… prices & affordability

15:00 Every other issue is a contributing factor to the price issues

15:45 The problem for Republicans is the economy will get worse, not better

16:30 Price pressures are building across the food supply

16:45 Iran war is causing major issues with the fuel & fertilizer supply

18:00 JP Morgan warns food inflation could reach 5% by 2027

18:30 Kevin Warsh will be forced to raise rates, Trump will be furious

19:00 Trump is only worried about his own personal financial interest

19:45 Fed raising rates to combat inflation will create 1970’s like conditions

20:15 Went to the Black Locust Livestock cattle ranch for Noosphere interview

21:45 Beef prices can’t just be adjusted with the turn of a dial

22:15 Raising cattle is a long term process & our beef herd is historically small

23:00 Trump knows beef prices are hurting him & wanted to import more

24:15 Importing is a short term solution, hurts the long term domestic supply

25:00 Only 4 companies process American beef & we’re losing capacity

25:30 How we can lower beef prices and boost domestic production

26:30 Trump tries to solve price issues in the short term, makes it worse long term

27:00 The price to produce food is rising because of decisions Trump made

27:45 Corporate pre-tax profits are at highest share since aftermath of WW2

28:15 Workers are getting lowest take home share of profits since 1950s

29:00 This is why voters across the spectrum are so pissed off at the system

29:30 There’s no economic boom for most Americans

30:15 Washington continues to misunderstand the anger of the voters

30:45 Trump voters are getting hardest hit by higher gas prices

32:30 Iran war isn’t just making things expensive, it’s making us more vulnerable

33:00 Defense leaders warning Hegseth the Iran war is unsustainable

33:45 Hegseth has put America in more danger than it’s been in since Cold War

34:15 Barely 1/4th of the Navy’s destroyer fleet is ready to deploy

34:45 We’ve burned through most of our advanced munitions

35:15 We’ve worn out our military equipment and personnel

36:00 Fighting this war has made us less capable of fighting the next war

36:30 China has been the biggest winner of Trump’s second term

37:00 What are we no longer willing to do because of the Iran war?

38:00 We’ve spent all this money on the military… and we’re tapped out?

38:30 We should be incredibly concerned about Putin testing NATO

39:15 Putin sees an American president desperate for a win

40:00 Trump announced that we’ve seized Venezuela’s oil reserves

40:45 This feels like British empire style imperialism

42:00 If Putin had done this to another country… what would we call it?

42:30 The standards shouldn’t be different because WE are doing it

43:30 Who is doing this negotiation and who stands to benefit?

44:30 Shouldn’t the windfall from Venezuelan oil benefit Venezuelans?

45:00 Trump is taking Venezuela’s oil at gunpoint, it’s highway robbery

46:00 This is why 2/3rd’s of South America hates the United States

46:30 Trump wants to make America and empire… and the world will hate us

48:00 This compounds America’s credibility problem globally

49:00 The world is only going to hate America & Americans more due to Trump

51:00 Chuck’s high school, Killian is down to 400 students from 3,000

51:45 The kids didn’t disappear, school choice killed ambition to attend there

53:00 Big successful public high schools defined their communities

54:30 Connection between community and schools has broken down

55:00 School choice creates communities not based in their neighborhood

56:00 We haven’t asked “What do we want a public school to do for a community?”

56:45 A public school is central to creating a local community

57:30 We trade choice and specialization, for a community that isn’t forced to interact

59:00 Killian’s community is still a good one, but the character changed

1:00:15 What exactly is public education for? Is it purely for kids' education?

1:01:00 The public school system was a source of our power… and we’ve gutted it

1:01:30 We didn’t try to fix public ed, we tried to empower people to escape it

1:03:45 We created more choices, but did we make education better?

1:05:45 We lost a place where we were forced to get to know each other

1:10:15 Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:11:30 More comfortable speaking out since not running for office

1:12:45 Mike’s argument against the death penalty

1:13:15 It takes 20 years on average from adjudication to execution

1:13:45 Death penalty process is not able to be sped up

1:15:15 We need to have legal immigrants admitted to America

1:16:30 We were educating immigrants, then not having them stay

1:17:15 Ohio’s economic increases have come from immigrants

1:17:45 Immigrants are critical to caring for our aging population

1:18:30 Can you be pro-life and pro-death penalty?

1:20:15 Putting an emphasis on rehabilitating prisoners

1:21:30 It’s in the self-interest of society to educate inmates

1:22:45 Emotion rather than logic & nuance drives the crime debate

1:23:45 Truly violent criminals are a very small percentage of the population

1:24:15 Violent criminals are the ones you have to get out of society

1:25:30 America goes through pro-immigration and anti-immigration phases

1:26:15 We need people who want to work

1:26:45 Haitians in Springfield created challenges, but they work hard

1:27:45 It’s not in our interest to deport people who are here and working

1:29:00 Haiti is a major challenge

1:32:00 Canada trade war is a problem, they’re a major customer for Ohio

1:33:45 Need a balance between manufacturing here and importing

1:36:00 Is there a divide in Ohio GOP between the two factions?

1:38:45 There used to be major distinctions within the parties

1:39:45 Nationalization of politics has stymied local distinctions within parties

1:40:45 The nationalization is now in everyone’s face everyday

1:43:15 Tech companies need to invest in communities where they put data centers

1:44:00 The data center tech is getting better, don’t have to use as much water

1:45:00 Need to invest in nuclear power in order to power the data center boom

1:45:45 Is Ohio in good hands with Ramaswamy or Acton as governor?

1:47:30 Shutdown decisions during COVID were the governor's choice. Buck stops with him

1:48:30 Is Ohio back to purple state status?

1:49:45 The governor and senate races will go down to the wire

1:50:15 Will this finally be Joe Burrow’s year?

1:52:00 ToddCast Time Machine - The Assassination of William McKinley

1:52:30 Of all presidential assassinations, Americans know the least about this one

1:53:00 The assassin was Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist who felt system was unjust

1:53:45 After McKinley died, Teddy Roosevelt became president

1:54:15 Czolgosz actually produced some of the political change he wanted

1:55:00 Modern America echoes America in 1901

1:56:00 Czolgosz saw political assassinations create change in Europe

1:57:45 Other anarchists thought Czolgosz was too committed, maybe a plant

1:58:15 Emma Goldman argues that societal conditions explain the assassination

1:59:00 When people conclude politics won’t solve problems, they look to alternatives

1:59:45 The assassination happened at a fair showing celebrating technological advances

2:00:30 The United States was emerging as a world power, but there were two Americas

2:01:00 One America saw dynamism, the other saw exploitation

2:01:30 The setting of the assassination was almost poetic

2:02:15 Doctors treating McKinley were too afraid to use new X-ray technology

2:03:15 Lincoln’s son was actually nearby during the assassination

2:03:45 Roosevelt was installed as VP by party bosses to get rid of him

2:04:30 Roosevelt sworn in at age 42, and understood the conditions for political radicalism

2:05:00 Roosevelt argues for the “Square Deal” and goes after concentrated corporate power

2:06:00 The uncomfortable truth: Does assassination provide the sought political change?

2:06:45 Lincoln and JFK’s assassination both changed the political timeline

2:08:00 Czolgosz was convicted and executed weeks after McKinley’s death

2:08:30 Congress passes the Anarchist Exclusion Act, Goldman is deported

2:10:00 The forces that produced Czolgosz weren’t confined to America

2:10:30 Roosevelt’s policies helped prevent a Russian-style revolution

2:11:00 Roosevelt argues capitalism has to be regulated and restrained

2:12:15 America in 2026 isn’t America 1901, but it does rhyme

2:13:15 Ask Chuck

2:13:30 What do you make of James Talarico’s status in Texas?

2:19:30 Thoughts on Project 2025, is it a threat and is Trump following it?

2:21:45 Do you think the Trump administration will still act on Cuba?

2:24:00 Why not make the Attorney General an elected position?

2:27:45 Do you see your political independence as a protest against duopoly?

2:32:00 Takeaways from first week of college football

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck Toddcast in his final months in office and, freed from ever facing voters again, says exactly what he thinks. The headline is his reversal on capital punishment: DeWine helped write Ohio's death penalty statute as a state senator in 1981 and defended it as attorney general, but in June he called on the legislature to abolish it, saying the moral justification he once had simply no longer exists. He walks Chuck through the practical case — roughly 20 years on average from sentencing to execution, a process that structurally cannot be sped up — and the harder question a Republican has to answer about whether you can be both pro-life and pro-death penalty. That flows into a broader argument about criminal justice that DeWine says has been driven by emotion rather than logic: truly violent offenders are a small percentage of the prison population and those are the people who need to be removed from society, but it's in society's direct self-interest to educate and rehabilitate everyone else. He's equally out of step with his party on immigration, arguing America needs legal immigrants, that we've been educating them and then failing to keep them, that Ohio's economic gains have come from immigrants, and that they're critical to caring for an aging population. On Springfield, DeWine is direct: the Haitian population created real challenges for the community, but they work hard, and it is not in America's interest to deport people who are here and working.

The conversation turns to the economy and the state's political future. DeWine calls the Canada trade war a genuine problem for Ohio — Canada is a major customer — and argues the country needs a real balance between domestic manufacturing and importing rather than a grudge match. On the data center boom reshaping Ohio politics, he says tech companies have an obligation to invest in the communities they move into, notes the technology has improved and no longer requires as much water, and makes the case that nuclear power is what will actually have to underwrite the buildout. He and Chuck get into whether there's a genuine divide between the two factions of the Ohio GOP, and DeWine offers a thoughtful answer about how the nationalization of politics has flattened the local distinctions that once existed inside both parties — and how that nationalization is now in everyone's face every single day. He takes ownership of the COVID shutdown decisions (the buck stopped with him), assesses whether Ohio is genuinely back to purple status with both the governor and Senate races going down to the wire, weighs in on whether the state is in good hands with either Vivek Ramaswamy or Amy Acton — and, of course, whether this is finally Joe Burrow's year.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Governor Mike DeWine joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 More comfortable speaking out since not running for office

02:30 Mike’s argument against the death penalty

03:00 It takes 20 years on average from adjudication to execution

03:30 Death penalty process is not able to be sped up

05:00 We need to have legal immigrants admitted to America

06:15 We were educating immigrants, then not having them stay

07:00 Ohio’s economic increases have come from immigrants

07:30 Immigrants are critical to caring for our aging population

08:15 Can you be pro-life and pro-death penalty?

10:00 Putting an emphasis on rehabilitating prisoners

11:15 It’s in the self-interest of society to educate inmates

12:30 Emotion rather than logic & nuance drives the crime debate

13:30 Truly violent criminals are a very small percentage of the population

14:00 Violent criminals are the ones you have to get out of society

15:15 America goes through pro-immigration and anti-immigration phases

16:00 We need people who want to work 

16:30 Haitians in Springfield created challenges, but they work hard

17:30 It’s not in our interest to deport people who are here and working

18:45 Haiti is a major challenge

21:45 Canada trade war is a problem, they’re a major customer for Ohio

23:30 Need a balance between manufacturing here and importing

25:45 Is there a divide in Ohio GOP between the two factions?

28:30 There used to be major distinctions within the parties

29:30 Nationalization of politics has stymied local distinctions within parties

30:30 The nationalization is now in everyone’s face everyday

33:00 Tech companies need to invest in communities where they put data centers

33:45 The data center tech is getting better, don’t have to use as much water

34:45 Need to invest in nuclear power in order to power the data center boom

35:30 Is Ohio in good hands with Ramaswamy or Acton as governor?

37:15 Shutdown decisions during COVID were the governor's choice. Buck stops with him

38:15 Is Ohio back to purple state status?

39:30 The governor and senate races will go down to the wire

40:00 Will this finally be Joe Burrow’s year?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into Darline Graham's 52-48 runoff win over Ralph Norman in South Carolina — a result that snapped Trump's ugly endorsement streak but only barely, and only because Trump personally recruited her, endorsed her, flew to Myrtle Beach for a rally, and dropped more than $800,000 in MAGA Inc. money on a race his PAC had sat out all cycle elsewhere. Chuck's read is that Trump clearly still moves Republican primary voters, but that a four-point squeaker for an appointed newcomer carrying one of the most recognizable names in state politics is not the show of strength the White House wanted. Graham inherited Lindsey's negatives with voters without inheriting his positives, remains an amateur candidate prone to gaffes, and may be dragged down further by resentment over how she got the seat in the first place. Against her is Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with a real organization raising real money — and while no Democrat has won a Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, Chuck asks the honest question about a favorable environment: what's Andrews' actual ceiling, and can 48% be a winning number in a state where the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act has produced a surge in Black turnout? If the blue wave turns into a tsunami, South Carolina lands on the map. A Graham loss in this environment would be a genuine disaster for Trump.

That leads into the broader strategic picture, where Chuck reports Trump met with advisors about how to deploy his enormous war chest — with the advisors trying to keep the midterms from becoming a referendum on him, and Trump insisting MAGA Inc. spend on ads touting his record. It's a plan built on turning out voters who show up only for Trump, which could either backfire badly or, Chuck concedes, prevent a tsunami. The deeper problem is that Trump is being told what he wants to hear: he thinks the economy is great, voters emphatically don't, and charts are meaningless to people staring at their grocery bills. Unlike Obama, who inherited a mess, Trump's central problems — the tariffs and the Iran war — were his own choices, which is why blaming Joe Biden won't land with any credibility. Chuck also notes that conservative media has spent the week obsessing over the WNBA, a classic look-over-here tactic from outlets that can't discuss the cost of living, and observes something genuinely changed about Trump's second-term psychology: more countries and institutions are willing to push back, and people simply aren't as afraid of him anymore. He is appalled by the reported plan to tear down the Kennedy Center — calling it disgusting to want your name on someone else's tombstone, noting the Kennedy Center was doing fine, and marveling that the Justice Department put any of this in writing. He  closes with his argument that America no longer has two functional parties: Democrats are paralyzed, the GOP is owned by Trump, both are held together only by fear of the other side's extremes, nearly half the public identifies with neither, and state law now protects the duopoly from competition. We demand more choice everywhere else in life. His pitch: stop protecting the two parties, let them divorce, and let voters build something that actually looks like the country.

Then, former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.

From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 GOP presidential candidates and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

“Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now

https://www.scaramucci.net/books

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:30 Darline Graham wins South Carolina runoff w/Trump’s endorsement

06:00 Trump clearly has influence over GOP primary voters

06:45 The race was a test of Trump’s political strength & she barely won

08:15 Darline inherited Lindsey’s negatives with voters, but not the positives

09:15 It took Trump & his operation to get Graham over the finish line

09:45 May not be a path for Annie Andrews to win, but can make it close

10:30 In favorable environment for Dems, what is the ceiling for Andrews?

11:30 Can 48% be a winning number for Annie Andrews?

12:00 Graham is still an amateur candidate, prone to gaffes

13:15 SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act has led to surge in black vote

14:30 Some voters may be turned off by Graham being appointed

15:30 Andrews has a strong organization & is raising real money

16:15 If the blue wave is a tsunami… South Carolina may be on the map

17:15 Trump desperately needed a Darline Graham

19:15 Candidates who ran as Trump candidates are pivoting for the general

21:00 A Graham loss in this environment would be a disaster for Trump

22:00 Trump met with advisors to discuss how to use his giant war chest

22:30 Advisors don’t want the midterms to be a referendum on Trump

23:15 Trump wants MAGA Inc to spend on ads touting his record

24:15 Trump is out of touch, told what he wants to hear 

25:45 Trump thinks the economy is great, the voters certainly don’t

27:00 Economic charts are meaningless when costs are so high

27:45 Trump is not meeting voters where they are

28:15 While Obama inherited a mess, the problems now are caused by Trump

29:00 The tariffs and Iran war were Trump’s choices

30:00 Playing the “blame Joe Biden” card won’t land with credibility

31:00 The senate map is still pretty friendly territory for Republicans

31:30 Trump’s strategy is to turn out voters that show up for only for him

32:30 This plan could also backfire on Republicans

33:45 The plan could also possibly prevent a potential blue tsunami

34:15 Conservative media has been obsessing over the WNBA

35:00 They can’t talk about the serious issues, focused on culture wars

35:45 It’s an old political “look over here” tactic

36:45 Conservatives want voters focused on WNBA, not cost of living

37:30 Conservative media tries to change the subject, Trump doesn’t

38:00 Trump’s psychology has clearly changed in term two

38:45 More countries and institutions are willing to push back on Trump

39:30 People aren’t as afraid to stand up to Trump now

40:15 If Trump tears down the Kennedy Center, the symbolism would be powerful

40:45 It’s disgusting to want to put your name on someone else’s tombstone

41:30 The Kennedy Center was doing FINE before Trump

42:15 Trump isn’t nearly as much of a “builder” as he claims to be

43:15 Threatening to tear down the Kennedy Center is just appalling

44:30 It’s crazy that the Department of Justice put this in writing

45:00 Don’t have two functional parties, Dems are paralyzed, GOP owned by Trump

46:30 Both parties contain wings with diverging philosophies

47:45 Both parties stay together because they’re afraid of the other sides extremes

48:45 Nearly half the public doesn’t identify with either major party

49:30 Voters identify as independents to register protest with both parties

51:30 The “left” and “right” labels end up doing the thinking for us

52:15 Parties lost regional identities as politics became nationalized

53:45 State law now protects the two political parties from competition

54:30 We should stop protecting the duopoly

56:30 Every race shouldn’t have to collapse into the same two parties

57:00 There is a constituency for a multiparty democracy

58:30 We keep defending a political system that most agree isn’t working

59:45 Everywhere else in life we demand more choice. Just not in politics

1:00:45 Let the parties divorce and then let the voters decide

1:02:30 Politics should be more representative of what we are

1:07:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:07:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war

1:09:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war

1:10:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance?

1:11:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare

1:12:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.

1:12:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war

1:13:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership

1:14:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran

1:15:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story

1:17:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies

1:18:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel

1:19:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.

1:20:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran

1:22:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it

1:23:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved

1:24:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform

1:26:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t

1:27:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press

1:27:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together

1:29:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages

1:30:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable

1:30:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now

1:31:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west

1:31:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+

1:33:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging

1:35:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks

1:36:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats

1:37:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election

1:38:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party

1:39:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade

1:40:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition

1:41:00 ToddCast Top 5 2028 GOP Presidential candidates

1:41:45 #1 JD Vance

1:43:15 #2 Marco Rubio

1:46:00 #3 Someone named Trump

1:47:00 #4 Nikki Haley

1:47:30 #5 Rand Paul

1:51:00 Ask Chuck

1:51:30 Thoughts on the long-shot Democratic 2028 candidates?

1:57:00 What would your dream bipartisan ticket look like?

2:00:30 What happened to the ideological principles of both parties?

2:04:15 Could Roger Marshall leave and then just be reappointed?

2:07:00 Are we missing shifts in areas we assume are safely red?

2:11:00 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them.

From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether.

“Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now

https://www.scaramucci.net/books

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast

00:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war

02:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war

03:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance?

04:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare

05:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C.

05:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war

06:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership

07:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran

08:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story

10:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies

11:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel

12:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C.

13:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran

15:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it

16:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved

17:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform

19:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t

20:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press

20:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together

22:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages

23:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable

23:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now

24:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west

24:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+

26:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging

28:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks

29:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats

30:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election

31:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party

32:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade

33:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande pick up in Part 2 of Alabama football with Bear Bryant’s final chapter and follow the Crimson Tide through decades of dominance, decline and an eventual return to the top.

They explore Alabama’s complicated integration story, Bryant’s reinvention of the program with the wishbone offense, and the championships that cemented his place as a college football icon. Then, after Bryant’s death, Alabama begins a turbulent search for the coach who could live up to the impossible standard he left behind.

That journey eventually leads to Nick Saban. From the Drew Brees decision that could have changed Saban’s future to the philosophy he developed alongside Bill Belichick, the arrival of Lane Kiffin and the offensive transformation that extended Alabama’s dynasty, Chuck and J.R. break down how Saban built the defining college football program of the modern era.

Plus, the Kick Six, the legendary 1992 championship team, Alabama’s greatest players and coaches, and the difficult question facing the Crimson Tide today: What happens after a legend leaves?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper.

The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams.

Timeline:

00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field

00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20%

00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr.

01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it 

02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris

03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to

04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump

04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline?

06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open

07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition

08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption

08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot?

10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned

10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean?

12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story

13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032

14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0

14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick

15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane

16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling

17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy

19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance? 

20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028

21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout?

22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley?

23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan

25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane

27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency

28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president

30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot

31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation

34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable

35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both

36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy

36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran

38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states

39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest

40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's?

41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race

42:03 Reading the methodology honestly 

43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America

44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy

46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage

47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff

48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t

50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere

52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance

53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted

54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine

57:02 Vance as a cipher — from near-primary-loss to vice president

59:37 What has JD Vance actually done?

1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins 

1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team

1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent

1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politics

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.

Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0

05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football

07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck

11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse

11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner

12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada

13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 

15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal

16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney

18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands

19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems

20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice

21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war

22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada

23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war

24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry

25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers

26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef

26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching

27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive

28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states

29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states

30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump

30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare

31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations

32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms

33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers

34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later

35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day

35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November

37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse

38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages

40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done

41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble

42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited

43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble

44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran

45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton

45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close

47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags

47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties

48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him

49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD

49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info

50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself

50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops

51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon

52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility

53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic

54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide”

54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI

55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash

56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race

56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics

57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government

58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner

59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries

59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump

1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal

1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?

1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks

1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar

1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy

1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently

1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company

1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align

1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt

1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works

1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen

1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 

1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed

1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo

1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states

1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it

1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other

1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations

1:20:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads

1:20:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time

1:21:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this

1:22:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2

1:22:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military

1:23:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress

1:23:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration

1:24:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War

1:25:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged

1:26:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job

1:27:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike

1:28:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it

1:29:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel

1:30:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work

1:31:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them

1:32:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?

1:34:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time

1:35:15 Ask Chuck

1:35:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?

1:39:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?

1:43:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?

1:46:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion.

Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations.

Then, former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed.

Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

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For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0

05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football

07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck

11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse

11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner

12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada

13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 

15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal

16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney

18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands

19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems

20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice

21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war

22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada

23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war

24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry

25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers

26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef

26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching

27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive

28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states

29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states

30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump

30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare

31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations

32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms

33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers

34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later

35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day

35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November

37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse

38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages

40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done

41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble

42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited

43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble

44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran

45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton

45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close

47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags

47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties

48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him

49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD

49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info

50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself

50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops

51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon

52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility

53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic

54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide”

54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI

55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash

56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race

56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics

57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government

58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner

59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries

59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump

1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal

1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine?

1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks

1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar

1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy

1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently

1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company

1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align

1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt

1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works

1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen

1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 

1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed

1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo

1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states

1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it

1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other

1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations

1:21:30 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:23:45 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners

1:25:00 Voters keep rejecting the party in power

1:27:15 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln

1:28:15 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about

1:29:00 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve

1:32:30 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC

1:33:30 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick

1:35:00 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years

1:36:30 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change

1:37:45 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech?

1:38:15 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power

1:38:45 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia

1:40:00 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in

1:40:15 Support public financing for elections

1:41:30 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions

1:43:00 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody

1:44:30 What are we getting from our massive military budget?

1:45:15 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change

1:47:00 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well

1:47:30 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems

1:48:30 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day

1:49:15 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult

1:49:45 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states

1:51:00 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership

1:53:30 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes

1:54:15 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country?

1:56:30 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot

1:58:00 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside

1:59:30 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies

2:01:15 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism?

2:01:45 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices?

2:04:45 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors

2:06:15 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with

2:08:00 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans?

2:08:30 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status

2:09:30 Ohio senate is too close to call

2:12:00 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy?

2:13:15 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race

2:14:45 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win

2:16:00 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader

2:17:30 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness

2:18:15 There is abject poverty in appalachia

2:19:15 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years?

2:21:45 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season

2:23:30 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM

2:25:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads

2:25:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time

2:26:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this

2:27:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2

2:27:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military

2:28:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress

2:28:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration

2:29:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War

2:30:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged

2:31:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job

2:32:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike

2:33:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it

2:34:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel

2:35:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work

2:36:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them

2:37:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry?

2:39:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time

2:40:15 Ask Chuck

2:40:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon?

2:44:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate?

2:48:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics?

2:51:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed.

Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:15 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners

03:30 Voters keep rejecting the party in power

05:45 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln

06:45 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about

07:30 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve

11:00 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC

12:00 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick

13:30 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years

15:00 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change

16:15 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech?

16:45 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power

17:15 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia

18:30 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in

18:45 Support public financing for elections

20:00 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions

21:30 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody

23:00 What are we getting from our massive military budget?

23:45 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change

25:30 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well

26:00 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems

27:00 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day

27:45 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult

28:15 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states

29:30 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership

32:00 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes

32:45 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country?

35:00 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot

36:30 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside

38:00 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies

39:45 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism?

40:15 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices?

43:15 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors

44:45 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with

46:30 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans?

47:00 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status

48:00 Ohio senate is too close to call 

50:30 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy?

51:45 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race

53:15 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win

54:30 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader

56:00 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness

56:45 There is abject poverty in appalachia

57:45 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years?

1:00:15 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season

1:02:00 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale

06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida

07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms

09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout

09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon

10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee

11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters

11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general

12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed

13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries

15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully

15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries

16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest

18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community

20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance

21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds

22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems

23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district

24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary

25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries

27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend

27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans

28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops

31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states

32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball

32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling

34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018

36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18

37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama

37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits 

39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive

42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races

43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation

44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida

45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas

47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas

48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,
48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers?

52:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special

53:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years

54:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments”

55:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men

56:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money

57:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment

58:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872

58:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years

59:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge

1:00:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify

1:01:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify

1:01:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse

1:02:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46

1:03:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage

1:05:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment

1:05:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself

1:06:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one

1:07:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement

1:09:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths

1:10:45 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win

1:11:15 #1 AOC

1:13:30 #2 Pete Buttigieg

1:13:45 #3 Kamala Harris

1:14:00 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom

1:15:45 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment

1:17:45 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems

1:23:00 Ask Chuck

1:24:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress?

1:31:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI?

1:35:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked?

1:40:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story??

1:46:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers. 

Then, filmmaker and author Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today, his new PBS documentary narrated by Rosanne Cash and featuring music from Bruce Springsteen, which traces the bond Guthrie forged with John Steinbeck during a campaign to ease the suffering of migrants in California — and argues those 1930s conflicts have unmistakable echoes in the present. Mitchell, a Depression-era obsessive who has written extensively about American politics since the 1930s, explains how he began seeing the connections between Guthrie and Steinbeck and why he refused to make a straight biopic: he wanted a film with current ramifications, which is why it closes with Springsteen's "The Ghost of Tom Joad" set against images of immigrants surrounded by federal agents and protesters holding signs quoting Guthrie. He and Chuck get into the story behind "This Land Is Your Land" (which wasn't the song's original title), the mechanics of securing the rights to the music and the story, his conversation with Tom Morello about the Springsteen song, and how seeing the migrant work camps firsthand fundamentally transformed Guthrie as an artist. Mitchell notes that Steinbeck was denounced as a communist for his trouble, that the majority of California's agricultural workforce eventually became Mexican and Filipino, and that Tom Joad was always meant to be a political character — which is exactly why he keeps getting resurrected.

The conversation broadens into a genuinely fun argument about protest music and whether great art requires great despair. Mitchell traces the lineage from Guthrie to Dylan (whom Guthrie mentored) to Springsteen, and notes that Guthrie has had a moment of renewed relevance over the past year as his music finds new audiences at No Kings and anti-ICE protests. He and Chuck walk through the iterations of protest music across the decades — The Clash and Blondie as deeply political acts, Springsteen's own evolution from apolitical rock star to a man now delivering angry speeches from the concert stage, and Jesse Welles finding real modern success in the form. They debate whether a fictional account can land harder than a true story, whether The Grapes of Wrath would even be a bestseller if published today, and what Tom Joad would make of contemporary America — with Mitchell arguing that the collapse of organized labor would genuinely shock both Joad and Guthrie. The episode closes on a pointed political note: Mitchell contends that Trump's corruption so far exceeds anything Nixon did that Nixon himself would be considered a lefty by modern standards. The film is streaming now on PBS.org and the PBS app.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale

06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida

07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms

09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout

09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon

10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee

11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters

11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general

12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed

13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries

15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully

15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries

16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest

18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community

20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance

21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds

22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems

23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district

24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary

25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries

27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend

27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans

28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops

31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states

32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball

32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling

34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018

36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18

37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama

37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits 

39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive

42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races

43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation

44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida

45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas

47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas

48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,
48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers?

56:30 Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck ToddCast

58:00 Making an appearance in Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today

1:00:15 Chose the subject because he’s obsessed with the Depression era

1:01:15 Started seeing connections between Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck

1:03:30 Was it difficult to get the rights for the music/story?

1:05:30 Creating protest songs like This Land Is Your Land

1:06:45 Discussing the Ghost of Tom Joad with Tom Morello

1:08:30 Tom Joad was an inspiration for Springsteen

1:09:30 Woody has always remained relevant. Songs have been covered

1:10:45 Tom Joad was meant to be political in Grapes of Wrath

1:12:30 Seeing migrant work camps deeply affected Woody Guthrie

1:14:15 Majority of agricultural workers became Mexicans & Philipinos

1:15:30 Steinbeck was denounced as a communist

1:16:15 “This land is your land” could be the national anthem

1:17:30 Do we need times of great despair to produce great art?

1:19:45 There have been iterations of protest music over the decades

1:20:45 Jesse Wells has found modern success with protest music

1:21:15 Bruce Springsteen & Tom Morello have produced new protest music

1:22:30 Groups like The Clash and Blondie were very political

1:23:15 Springsteen started as apolitical, then evolved to become political

1:25:00 Springsteen now gives angry speeches during his concerts

1:27:00 Can a fictional account land harder than a true story?

1:29:30 Is Guthrie to Dylan to Springsteen the lineage of protest music?

1:30:30 Guthrie was Bob Dylan’s mentor

1:32:00 Would Grapes of Wrath be a best seller if it came out today?

1:32:45 Film is available at PBS and the PBS app

1:33:00 What would Tom Joad feel if he was in modern America?

1:33:45 The fall of unions would shock Guthrie and Joad

1:34:45 Trump’s corruption so far exceeds anything done by Nixon

1:36:30 Nixon would be considered a “lefty” by modern standards

1:37:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special

1:38:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years

1:39:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments”

1:40:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men

1:41:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money

1:42:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment

1:43:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872

1:43:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years

1:44:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge

1:45:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify

1:46:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify

1:46:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse

1:47:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46

1:48:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage

1:50:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment

1:50:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself

1:51:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one

1:52:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement

1:54:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths

1:55:30 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win

1:56:00 #1 AOC

1:58:15 #2 Pete Buttigieg

1:58:30 #3 Kamala Harris

1:58:45 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom

2:00:30 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment

2:02:30 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems

2:08:00 Ask Chuck

2:09:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress?

2:16:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI?

2:20:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked?

2:25:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story??

2:31:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Filmmaker and author Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today, his new PBS documentary narrated by Rosanne Cash and featuring music from Bruce Springsteen, which traces the bond Guthrie forged with John Steinbeck during a campaign to ease the suffering of migrants in California — and argues those 1930s conflicts have unmistakable echoes in the present. Mitchell, a Depression-era obsessive who has written extensively about American politics since the 1930s, explains how he began seeing the connections between Guthrie and Steinbeck and why he refused to make a straight biopic: he wanted a film with current ramifications, which is why it closes with Springsteen's "The Ghost of Tom Joad" set against images of immigrants surrounded by federal agents and protesters holding signs quoting Guthrie. He and Chuck get into the story behind "This Land Is Your Land" (which wasn't the song's original title), the mechanics of securing the rights to the music and the story, his conversation with Tom Morello about the Springsteen song, and how seeing the migrant work camps firsthand fundamentally transformed Guthrie as an artist. Mitchell notes that Steinbeck was denounced as a communist for his trouble, that the majority of California's agricultural workforce eventually became Mexican and Filipino, and that Tom Joad was always meant to be a political character — which is exactly why he keeps getting resurrected.

The conversation broadens into a genuinely fun argument about protest music and whether great art requires great despair. Mitchell traces the lineage from Guthrie to Dylan (whom Guthrie mentored) to Springsteen, and notes that Guthrie has had a moment of renewed relevance over the past year as his music finds new audiences at No Kings and anti-ICE protests. He and Chuck walk through the iterations of protest music across the decades — The Clash and Blondie as deeply political acts, Springsteen's own evolution from apolitical rock star to a man now delivering angry speeches from the concert stage, and Jesse Welles finding real modern success in the form. They debate whether a fictional account can land harder than a true story, whether The Grapes of Wrath would even be a bestseller if published today, and what Tom Joad would make of contemporary America — with Mitchell arguing that the collapse of organized labor would genuinely shock both Joad and Guthrie. The episode closes on a pointed political note: Mitchell contends that Trump's corruption so far exceeds anything Nixon did, and that Nixon himself would be considered a lefty by modern standards. The film is streaming now on PBS.org and the PBS app.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Making an appearance in Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today 

03:45 Chose the subject because he’s obsessed with the Depression era

04:45 Started seeing connections between Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck

07:00 Was it difficult to get the rights for the music/story?

09:00 Creating protest songs like This Land Is Your Land

10:15 Discussing the Ghost of Tom Joad with Tom Morello

12:00 Tom Joad was an inspiration for Springsteen

13:00 Woody has always remained relevant. Songs have been covered

14:15 Tom Joad was meant to be political in Grapes of Wrath

16:00 Seeing migrant work camps deeply affected Woody Guthrie

17:45 Majority of agricultural workers became Mexicans & Philipinos

19:00 Steinbeck was denounced as a communist

19:45 “This land is your land” could be the national anthem

21:00 Do we need times of great despair to produce great art?

23:15 There have been iterations of protest music over the decades

24:15 Jesse Wells has found modern success with protest music

24:45 Bruce Springsteen & Tom Morello have produced new protest music

26:00 Groups like The Clash and Blondie were very political

26:45 Springsteen started as apolitical, then evolved to become political

28:30 Springsteen now gives angry speeches during his concerts

30:30 Can a fictional account land harder than a true story?

33:00 Is Guthrie to Dylan to Springsteen the lineage of protest music?

34:00 Guthrie was Bob Dylan’s mentor

35:30 Would Grapes of Wrath be a best seller if it came out today?

36:15 Film is available at PBS and the PBS app

36:30 What would Tom Joad feel if he was in modern America?

37:15 The fall of unions would shock Guthrie and Joad

38:15 Trump’s corruption so far exceeds anything done by Nixon

40:00 Nixon would be considered a “lefty” by modern standards

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande explore the origins of the Crimson Tide and the remarkable rise of Bear Bryant. From Alabama’s early Rose Bowl triumphs and the beginnings of the Crimson Tide name to Bryant’s near-departure for the Miami Dolphins, they trace the moments that helped turn Alabama into the standard of college football.

They also examine one of the most complicated chapters in the program’s history: integration, Bear Bryant’s role in a changing South, and Alabama’s landmark 1970 matchup with USC.

It’s the story of how football became inseparable from Alabama—and how the foundation was laid for one of the greatest dynasties in sports history.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field — prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 — a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run — and that not running is the smarter play for 2032.

The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for résumé candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary — Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, the Mel Martinez precedent, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Under 80 days out — and a full 2028 Democratic audit

01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right 

02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story

02:55 Reading Polymarket and Kalshi: AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top

05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen the way Trump did in '16?

06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull

06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina

07:30 The impossible position for Newsom

08:16 AOC's advantage — no long record to defend

09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions?

10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts

10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff?

11:59 The formalized DNC calendar

13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question

14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane

15:13 What 2020 looked like when South Carolina came fourth

15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win?

16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson

17:22 Advice: put your HQ in Michigan, not San Francisco

19:42 The counterargument: no gatekeepers left, and the hustler wins

20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg & who's actually willing to burn the boats

21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room

22:08 Would a swing-state Democrat invite Newsom to campaign? 

23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running

24:06 The Dan Quayle risk if she runs under these circumstances

25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run 

26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa & the quote that reads like a stump speech

27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor

27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly?

29:30 Is Kelly too pro-business for this version of the party?

30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him

31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue

32:03 AOC is the change candidate — inside the party and outside it

33:09 Biographies don't win the presidency

33:30 The cautionary tales: John Glenn and Bill Bradley

35:08 The charisma gap — and Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy

35:55 Scanning the long shots on the board

36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna

37:16 Pritzker at 1% — the governor who could reach the left

37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel

39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites

39:59 The left will never accept him

42:07 Not a cycle for an insider — but maybe for an ideas guy

42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something

42:50 To Florida: Tuesday's primary and Tuesday night's live stream

43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points

44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume

44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term? 

45:24 What's Donalds's real number? 

46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent

48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds

49:56 The 2018 what-if: Bernie, Soros, Gillum and DeSantis

50:43 Credit to DeSantis for saying what Trump never does

51:48 Debbie Wasserman Schultz in a majority-Black district

52:38 The Vindman question — and the residency problem

54:23 The US-Iran memorandum expires with no deal

55:46 A $1.5 trillion budget and a carrier crew that can't get fed

56:11 Testosterone tests and push-up contests while the Lincoln goes short

56:33 Operationally a disaster — and where's the audit?

57:57 Damaging the last institution still standing

59:51 The Nats get swept by the Mets 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What started as a simple sports question: why did Mark Walter sell the Los Angeles Lakers after just 14 months? — turned into something else entirely. In Part 1 of this two-part ToddCast Special Report, Chuck Todd pulls the thread from a record $12.5 billion franchise sale to the life insurance companies, private credit vehicles, and obscure Delaware LLCs sitting underneath one of the least understood transformations in American finance since 2008. The facts on the record: Walter's Delaware Life Insurance Co. and Clear Spring Life and Annuity Co. received grand jury subpoenas from Manhattan prosecutors in February, disclosed in June 26 regulatory filings, with a parallel SEC review, following earlier inquiries into Guggenheim's $362 billion money management arm. After receiving the subpoenas, both insurers conducted internal reviews, found reporting errors, and revised earlier disclosures — with Delaware Life disclosing an additional $16 billion in private credit assets linked to affiliated entities beyond what had previously been reported. Chuck is emphatic about what that does not mean: no money disappeared, no loans were declared bad, and a disclosure change is not a financial loss. No charges have been announced against the companies or any individuals, Group 1001 says it is cooperating fully with federal authorities and that its financial position remains strong, and the filings did not state that assets were improperly managed or that investors suffered losses.

From there, Chuck builds the machine from the ground up in plain English — a retiree in Indiana buying an annuity, an insurer that has to earn enough to keep that promise, a post-2008 world where banks got safer and the risky lending simply moved somewhere with no public market attached to it. He traces Walter's career from asset-backed securitization in the 1990s through the 2012 Dodgers purchase (and the question Andrew Ross Sorkin asked at the time about where the money came from), through the corporate genealogy of Guggenheim, Delaware Life, Clear Spring, and Group 1001, to insurance filings showing hundreds of millions in debt tied to the Dodgers' regional sports network and ticket revenue. He credits the reporting he's leaning on throughout — Katie Baker at The Ringer, independent researcher Nick Nemeth at Mispriced Assets, plus Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, and the Financial Times — and he is scrupulous about the line between what the public record establishes and what it simply cannot. The core question isn't whether anyone broke the law; investigators with subpoena power will answer that. It's whether we understand this system well enough to know what happens when it comes under stress — because when the assets underneath an institution's balance sheet can't be continuously tested in a public market, how much confidence should any of us have in the numbers? Part 2 continues the story. 

Timeline:

00:00 Why did Mark Walter sell the Lakers? Pulling the thread

00:30 This stopped being a basketball story

00:45 A record $12.5B sale — and why the seller is the story, not the buyers

01:15 Walter took control just 14 months earlier at a $10B valuation

01:30 The thread led to life insurance companies

02:00 A financial market that's grown enormously since the last crisis

02:30 Things that rhyme with 2008 — and things that rhyme with Enron

02:45 Executive Life: the insurer that failed three decades ago

03:15 Three different historical examples — not the same thing

03:45 Not saying another 2008 is coming

04:00 "A sneaking suspicion we may be looking at the beginning of something very bad"

04:15 The questions public filings simply cannot answer

05:15 Why some answers only exist in depositions

05:30 Why the federal investigation matters — subpoena power

06:00 The rule for this episode: what we know vs. what we don't

06:30 The central question about measuring financial strength

07:15 Why this should be a five-alarm fire for regulators

07:45 An enormous market built around things that are private by definition

08:15 Credit where it's due: The Ringer, Mispriced Assets, WSJ, Bloomberg, FT

09:15 Connecting dots vs. building a case

10:00 We made banks safer after 2008 — the money went somewhere else

11:00 Even if it's all legal, the larger question remains

11:45 A simple rule: when someone tells you "it's complicated"

12:15 Complexity as a feature, not a bug

13:00 The innocent explanation: a $2.5B gain in 14 months

13:30 Iger and Kushner were already exploring an NBA expansion team

13:45 Why buy the Lakers instead of building from scratch

14:45 What "valued at $10 billion" does and doesn't mean

15:30 We don't know how much cash Walter personally receives

15:45 Why sell at all? Walter collects teams, he doesn't flip them

16:30 Why only the Lakers? He's keeping the Dodgers

17:15 February grand jury subpoenas and the parallel SEC review

17:30 The disclosure change inside the insurers' filings

18:15 A disclosure change is not a financial loss

19:30 Nobody's been charged; companies say they're cooperating

20:00 Reporting on liquidity — and the precision that question requires

21:00 Why the timing is a legitimate reporting question

21:15 Keeping two separate sports stories separate

21:45 The FIFA deal collapsed roughly 10 days before the Lakers deal

22:15 What the timing does and does not establish

23:00 The political question: Josh Kushner, Jared Kushner, the executive branch

23:45 The pattern is context — it is not evidence

24:00 No evidence of a quid pro quo

24:45 Why the question stays on the shelf

25:15 What does "billionaire" actually mean?

26:00 Who is Mark Walter? Cedar Rapids, a concrete plant, and anonymity

27:15 "I'm nothing special. I'm just the king of common sense."

27:45 Why the low profile matters to this story

28:30 Liberty Hampshire and asset-backed securitization

29:30 Meeting the Guggenheims and building Guggenheim Partners

30:45 Wealth vs. commanding capital that isn't yours

31:45 2012: buying the Dodgers, and the Frank McCourt cautionary tale

33:00 Baseball wanted the exact opposite of McCourt

33:45 Andrew Ross Sorkin's question: where's the rest of the money?

34:15 Insurance company capital in the Dodgers financing

35:15 How does retirement money end up near a baseball team?

36:30 Following the money: a hypothetical retiree in Indiana

37:15 The annuity bargain and what insurers do with the money

38:15 How 2008 scrambled the insurance business

39:00 Low rates and the hunt for yield

39:45 Chuck's Widget Company and the loan the bank won't make

41:00 Money always finds a way — the lesson from campaign finance

41:45 What private credit actually is

42:15 The genuine advantages of private credit

43:00 Stickier capital — and why runs still happen

43:45 Private credit isn't inherently bad. What happens when it gets big?

44:15 No public market means no continuous price check

45:15 What replaces the market as the check on valuation?

46:00 Two sides looking for each other

47:00 Multiplying one retiree's $100,000 by hundreds of thousands

47:45 What happens when the same person owns both sides?

48:30 This is an entire industry, not one man's invention

49:15 Guggenheim's move into insurance and the roots of Group 1001

50:30 The ecosystem: asset management, insurance, private credit

51:00 Why the corporate structure is so hard to follow

51:30 Sportsnet LA and American Media Productions

52:00 Roughly $587M of that debt held by the two insurers, per filings

52:30 Dodgers Tickets LLC and slicing up a franchise

53:00 Is the Dodgers one entity or many?

53:30 Asset-backed securitization, applied to a baseball team

54:30 Is lending against Dodgers TV revenue inherently bad?

55:00 The brother analogy: conflicts and other people's money

55:30 February: subpoenas to Delaware Life and Clear Spring

56:15 The assets were always on the books — the question is characterization

56:30 General interrogatory 13.2 and the original 3% answer

57:00 The revised figure: roughly $16.4B described as dependent on affiliates

57:30 Three separate questions the public record can't resolve

58:15 What the internal reviews concluded

58:45 Comparing that figure to Delaware Life's reported capital and surplus

59:15 What the number does NOT mean

59:45 Concentration, governance, and disclosure

1:00:30 The questions that actually matter

1:01:00 Why the opacity itself is part of the story

1:01:15 Someone looked at the individual borrowers, one by one

1:02:00 Nick Nemeth and the Mispriced Assets research

1:03:15 Why independent research matters in the new media world

1:03:45 Roughly 230 holdings with striking similarities

1:04:00 The names: Verdant Hills, Pines, Iroquois, Yellow Creek

1:04:30 Special purpose vehicles — what's inside the box?

1:05:00 The legitimate reasons to use an LLC

1:05:30 How structure can change regulatory treatment

1:06:15 Does the legal wrapper describe the economic risk underneath?

1:06:45 Does that explain 230 vehicles? We don't know.

1:07:15 The echo of the mortgage crisis

1:08:00 Formation dates, filing numbers, and same-day funding

1:08:45 Roughly 44% of positions held by both insurers, purchased the same day

1:09:15 Innocent explanations exist — but this looks like a system

1:09:30 The questions only investigators can answer

1:10:00 Identification numbers and why outsiders can't check a price

1:10:45 A sophisticated process may exist — but it isn't a public market

1:11:15 What's a private note worth this morning?

1:11:30 Carried at or near purchase price: the concern raised

1:12:00 The great irony: the Lakers are the easy thing to value

1:12:30 Who owns these investments — and who was promised what

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In Part 2 of this ToddCast Special Report, Chuck Todd picks up the thread where Part 1 left it: if an insurance company's capital cushion is determined by how risky its investments are judged to be, then who is doing the judging? The answer leads to private letter ratings — a corner of finance almost no one outside it has heard of, and one that has exploded in size. Wall Street Journal reporting by Shane Shiflett and Heather Gillers assembled data on nearly 18,000 privately rated instruments held by U.S. insurers, and the growth curve is the number to remember: roughly $47 billion in 2018 to roughly $480 billion seven years later, with one estimate putting total private credit in insurance portfolios near $1 trillion. Much of that grading runs through firms most people have never heard of, and Chuck focuses on Egan-Jones, which privately graded roughly $40 billion of debt held by U.S. insurers, faces a 2024 lawsuit from two former executives alleging they were fired after raising conflict-of-interest concerns and that the firm pressured staff to inflate ratings, has drawn SEC questions about its reliability, and in January was removed by Bermuda regulators from their list of recognized ratings providers — all of which Egan-Jones forcefully denies, saying it stands behind the integrity and independence of its work. Chuck is careful throughout about what this does and does not establish: agencies can legitimately disagree, private raters often see borrower information outsiders never will, and none of it means any particular rating is wrong. It means the ratings deserve scrutiny, because if the grade helps set the size of the rainy day fund, being wrong about the grade means being wrong about the cushion.

From there the episode widens out. Chuck walks through what a clean audit opinion actually certifies versus what people assume it certifies, revisits Executive Life — the insurer that reached for yield in junk bonds in the 1980s and was eventually seized — as a more instructive warning than Enron or 2008, and is direct that this is not a story about an insurer on the brink: Group 1001 says it is cooperating fully and that its financial position remains sound, Delaware Life reported roughly $69 billion in assets as of March and Clear Spring roughly $16 billion, and no charges have been announced against the companies or any individuals. AM Best has affirmed both companies' A- (Excellent) financial strength ratings while revising their outlooks to negative following the reclassification of private credit investments from unaffiliated to affiliated. Complicated private assets are not insolvency; related-party exposure is not insolvency; a federal investigation is not insolvency. The question Chuck is actually chasing is structural — whether a system split across fifty state insurance departments, the SEC, the Fed, offshore reinsurance regulators, and private ratings firms can assemble the whole machine fast enough when one piece breaks, and whether the real lesson of the post-2008 era is that we made the banks safer without ever asking where the behavior would go. He lays out three ways this ends, six specific questions he'd chase with subpoena power he doesn't have, and — unusually — the exact evidence that would bring him back in six months to say the warning lights looked worse than the engine. Because capitalism doesn't run on money alone. It runs on people believing that a price means what it says, that a rating means something, and that somebody understands the risk underneath a promise made to a retiree thirty years out. 

Timeline:

00:00 Recapping Part 1: inside Mark Walter's world of structured finance
00:30 Who looked inside the box and decided how safe it was?
01:00 Why the risk grade determines the size of an insurer's cushion
01:30 Credit rating agencies as the report card for debt
02:00 A better grade can mean less capital sitting behind it
02:15 The special purpose vehicle, the note, and the rating
02:45 Does the grade on the box accurately reflect what's inside?
03:15 WSJ data on nearly 18,000 privately rated investments
03:30 From $47 billion in 2018 to $480 billion seven years later
03:45 One estimate puts private credit near $1 trillion in insurance portfolios
04:15 What "privately rated" actually means
04:30 Private letter ratings and what the public can't see
05:00 Why the quality and independence of the rating matters so much
05:15 Egan-Jones — and the Arthur Andersen flashback
05:45 The ratings agencies you know, and the one you don't
06:00 Roughly $40 billion of insurer-held debt privately rated by Egan-Jones
06:15 Egan-Jones also rated the Dodgers TV network debt
06:30 Following the chain from annuity customer to capital cushion
06:45 Who pays the ratings agencies? The inherent tension
07:15 The Journal's comparison: roughly one grade higher on average
07:45 Egan-Jones strongly disputes the Journal's analysis
08:00 Former executives' lawsuit alleging pressure to inflate ratings
08:15 Egan-Jones denies it; the SEC has examined its processes
08:30 Bermuda removed Egan-Jones as a recognized ratings provider
08:45 Allianz's response: requiring a second rating
09:15 This doesn't mean the ratings are wrong — it means scrutiny
09:30 Enter the auditor: KPMG and the clean opinions
10:00 What an audit opinion addresses — and what it doesn't
10:30 The right question to ask about a clean opinion
11:00 Executive Life: the more useful historical warning
11:30 Junk bonds, Michael Milken, and the reach for yield
12:00 How Executive Life ended — and why it isn't the same thing
12:15 The evidence that cuts against the scariest version of this story
12:30 Delaware Life's reported assets, capital, and surplus
12:45 Financial strength ratings and what "A-" actually means
13:00 The more recent caution from the ratings agencies
13:30 This is not an insurer on the verge of seizure
13:45 The real question: confidence in conventional measures of strength
14:00 Why asset quality matters when you're backing promises
14:30 The safety net: state guaranty associations
14:45 And who ultimately pays for that safety net
15:00 Accumulating echoes: Executive Life, Enron, and 2008
15:45 The warning lights of 2026
16:15 Not a crisis — but a reason to ask better questions
16:30 Can regulators adapt as fast as the system is changing?
17:00 What regulators are actually doing right now
17:30 This is not asleep-at-the-switch
17:45 The structural problem: nobody sees the whole machine
18:15 Fifty states, fifty insurance departments
18:45 Why we regulate different financial businesses differently
19:00 Assembling the machine when each regulator holds one piece
19:45 Finance moves at the speed of a term sheet
20:15 Regulation moves at the speed of rulemaking
20:45 Understanding regulatory arbitrage
21:00 Same television, different rules
21:45 Most regulatory arbitrage is perfectly legal
22:00 But risk doesn't change just because the address does
22:15 Why regulators are reconsidering what qualifies as a bond
22:30 Show me what's inside the box, not the wrapping paper
23:00 The rules are being rewritten — but the money is already there
23:30 The mistake Washington may have made after 2008
24:00 You can't pass a law eliminating the desire to make money
24:45 The campaign finance parallel
25:00 We regulated the scene of the accident
25:30 We get very good at preventing the last financial crisis
26:00 Incentives work: if banks pull back, somebody else lends
26:15 Maybe the behavior simply migrated
27:15 The systemic stress test Chuck doesn't think we can pass
27:45 Why the investigation is useful regardless of the outcome
28:00 Looking through the legal boxes to the economics underneath
28:30 Where the central argument lands
29:15 What happens when something goes wrong? The honest answer
29:30 The strongest case that nothing catastrophic happens
30:00 Why private credit isn't structured like a bank run
30:15 Longer-term liabilities and patient money
30:45 Three ways this story could end
31:00 Possibility one: Walter is the problem
31:15 Possibility two: an extreme example of a manageable problem
31:45 Possibility three: Walter is the X-ray
32:00 What we do — and don't — have evidence of
32:30 Being careful not to invent the next 2008
32:45 Where pressure could actually come from
33:15 When patient money becomes less patient
33:30 Other sources of insurance funding under stress
33:45 Borrowing, credit lines, and reinsurance triggers
34:00 Who else made a promise based on that valuation?
34:15 Being fair to Delaware Life and Clear Spring
34:45 The narrower question: how much stress can the cushions absorb?
35:15 Back to the Lakers one last time
35:45 Why you sell the thing you can sell
36:00 What Chuck is and isn't ready to say
36:30 If I had subpoena power: the reporting roadmap
37:00 What open-source reporting can and can't do
37:30 One: open the boxes and show the underlying assets
37:45 Two: did the structure change the regulatory treatment?
38:15 Schedule D vs. Schedule BA — show us the math
38:30 Three: who graded the box, and on what information?
38:45 Four: why did 3% become something vastly larger?
39:00 Who made that judgment, and what changed after the subpoenas?
39:30 Five: did the Lakers money actually matter?
39:45 Six: how much stress can these insurers absorb?
40:15 What we know, and what we don't
40:30 The final test: what would make Chuck say he was too worried
40:45 Show me the marks hold up
41:15 "I'd love to make that podcast"
41:30 What this story already tells us
41:45 Coming back to Josh Kushner and the timing
42:00 No evidence of a quid pro quo
42:15 Why the political question is the smaller question
42:45 The more consequential story
43:00 The full thread: Lakers to Walter to Dodgers to private credit
43:30 What we have and haven't established
43:45 We reinforced the part of the house that burned down
44:15 Every private equity firm wanted its own insurance company
44:30 "Money always finds a way"
45:00 The failure was assuming we'd solved the behavior
45:15 Why this matters well beyond Wall Street
45:30 Our hypothetical retiree, and what she has to trust
45:45 Capitalism runs on trust, not just money
46:15 If that trust breaks, everyone finds a different villain
46:45 Where Chuck's instincts are — and what the evidence doesn't establish
47:00 What would change his mind
47:15 Why it's fitting we got here through the Lakers
47:45 Let's figure out what it is before the patient gets sick

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unloads on newly confirmed Attorney General Todd Blanche for appearing at a political rally alongside Trump — a line past attorneys general knew better than to cross — and for openly stating that the Justice Department won't be independent of the White House. Chuck argues Republicans are making the DOJ far more nakedly partisan than any prior administration, that the senators who voted to confirm Blanche should be ashamed of themselves, and that Blanche is essentially telling the country in advance that the institution won't hold. He turns to the horror stories surfacing about morale and conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, where Trump's response was that the deployment hasn't gone on nearly long enough — proof, Chuck argues, that neither Trump nor Hegseth is even pretending to care about the people they've deployed, and that America was taken into a war it was never prepared to fight. After years of record military budgets producing bad results, Chuck’s question is simple and furious: what the hell have we been paying for? He identifies a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon, then pivots to what he sees as the coming Republican civil war over JD Vance, who now says he wants to end the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and who views America's alliances as liabilities rather than strengths — positions Vance will have to actually sell on the merits, because he doesn't have Trump's charisma to carry them, and positions that could drive a meaningful number of Republicans out of a Vance-led party altogether. Chuck closes with a genuinely provocative question about the missing anti-war movement: where are the protests over Iran? He wonders aloud whether the Gaza demonstrations were ever really an anti-war movement at all, whether they were as organically American-driven as they appeared, and argues the silence around Iran is revealing in ways nobody on either side seems eager to examine — before previewing Tuesday's Florida primaries. 

Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else.

On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 Shout out to ReCenter Indiana

07:30 Todd Blanche appeared at political rally with Trump, now as AG

08:00 Past Attorneys General knew better than to act so partisan

08:30 Blanche says DOJ won’t be independent of the White House

09:15 Republicans are making DOJ far more partisan than prior admins

10:15 Senators who confirmed Blanche should be ashamed of themselves

11:15 Blanche is telling us that the institution of the DOJ won’t hold

12:00 Horror stories surface about morale & conditions on USS Abraham Lincoln

12:30 Trump says deployment hasn’t gone on nearly long enough

13:00 Trump and Hegseth didn’t even pretend to care about these soldiers

13:45 Clearly we were taken into a war that we weren’t prepared for

14:15 We keep passing record military budgets & getting bad results

15:00 What the hell have we been paying for?   

15:30 We have a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon

16:45 The coming civil war inside the Republican party over JD Vance

17:15 Vance says he wants to end the dollar as the reserve currency

17:45 Vance views alliances as liabilities rather than strengths

18:15 Vance doesn’t have Trump’s charisma, will have to sell his argument

18:45 Many Republicans might leave a Vance Republican party

19:30 Where are the protests and the anti-war movement over Iran?

20:30 Was Gaza actually an anti-war movement? 

21:00 Were Gaza protests not as American driven as we thought?

22:15 The lack of protest over Iran is revealing

23:15 Preview of Florida primary elections on Tuesday

28:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast

29:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote

31:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone

33:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters

34:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”?

34:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house

35:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials

36:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run

37:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official?

40:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane

41:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run”

42:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms

42:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28?

44:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power

46:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans

47:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him

48:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP?

49:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28?

51:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate

52:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line

53:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was

54:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates”

55:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model

56:00 The far left is stronger than the far right

59:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives

1:00:00 Impact of South Carolina going first

1:01:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field

1:02:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28

1:03:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes

1:04:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate

1:05:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position

1:05:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church

1:06:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win

1:08:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries

1:09:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running?

1:10:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors

1:11:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six

1:12:30 How cemented is the red/blue map?

1:15:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s

1:16:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers

1:17:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race

1:18:00 Will UVA be a contender in football?

1:25:00 No time machine this week

1:25:45 Ask Chuck

1:26:00 Why doesn’t congress vote on more clean standalone bills?

1:29:15 List of biggest presidential blunders

1:32:30 Dems chances of shifting red states in the midwest?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else.

On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year.

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote

03:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone

05:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters

06:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”?

06:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house

07:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials

08:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run

09:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official?

12:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane

13:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run”

14:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms

14:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28?

16:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power

18:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans

19:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him

20:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP?

21:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28?

23:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate

24:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line

25:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was

26:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates”

27:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model

28:00 The far left is stronger than the far right

31:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives

32:00 Impact of South Carolina going first

33:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field

34:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28

35:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes

36:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate

37:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position

37:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church

38:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win

40:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries

41:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running?

42:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors

43:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six

44:30 How cemented is the red/blue map?

47:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s

48:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers

49:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race

50:00 Will UVA be a contender in football?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks David Crowley's astonishing photo-finish win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin — a race Crowley dropped out of, re-entered with Tony Evers' backing, and then won by roughly 3,200 votes — and argues national Democrats are far more relieved than they'll ever admit. Had Hong won, she'd have become a face of the party while being forced to spend the fall answering for past statements about defunding police, abolishing prisons, and canceling Thanksgiving rather than talking about the economy, handing Republicans an absurdly easy story to tell. Chuck credits Tony Evers for refusing to fence-sit and mounting what amounted to an emergency rescue operation, while noting Crowley isn't remotely "establishment" — he came from genuinely modest roots and ran a campaign largely defined by what he wasn't. Chuck identifies Hong's central unforced error as nationalizing her race in the closing weeks, a fundraising-driven instinct in an era where media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appeals, forgetting that the national online audience and the local electorate are not the same people. Mamdani stayed disciplined and won; Hong drifted into boutique cultural debates and lost. But Chuck cautions against reading this as a repudiation of the left: Peggy Flanagan won in Minnesota, progressives are doing better this cycle than they have in years, and the 2027 House will be younger and slightly further left. The real structural lesson is that progressives struggle in higher-turnout and open primaries, still face a persistent obstacle with African American primary voters, and — most tellingly — keep getting rejected by the working-class voters they orient their entire message toward, which is more than a messaging glitch. Abdul El-Sayed emerges a quiet winner here, now much harder to lump in with the DSA, and Chuck notes that neither AOC nor Bernie ever endorsed Hong.

The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy.

Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother.

Thanks to our sponsors:

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI

04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won

05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party

06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic

07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics

08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell

08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA

10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit

11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over

12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism

13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota

15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives

16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them

17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch

18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives

19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries

20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees

21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks

22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising

22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances

23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people

24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t

25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them

26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies

26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up

28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess

29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley

30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots

31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley

32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong

33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem

34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won

36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems

38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked

40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives

42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive

42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle

43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left

44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t

46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors

47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket?

49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party

50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over

51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries

51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary

52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote

53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff

55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping

57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary

57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970

58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House

59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter

1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice

1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note

1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly

1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message

1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said

1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger

1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company

1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public

1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party

1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training 

1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model

1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things

1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too

1:15:00 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets

1:17:00 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC

1:18:00 #4 Carol Moseley Braun

1:18:45 #3 Andrew Gillum

1:19:45 #2 Eric Cantor

1:20:45 #1 David Crawley

1:22:15 Honorable mentions

1:23:45 Ask Chuck

1:24:00 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome?

1:27:00 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5?

1:34:45 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him?

1:38:45 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed?

1:41:15 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger

1:42:15 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out

1:43:00 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion

1:44:30 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now

1:45:30 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet

1:46:15 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore

1:47:00 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats

1:48:00 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent

1:49:30 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shocking

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks David Crowley's astonishing photo-finish win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin — a race Crowley dropped out of, re-entered with Tony Evers' backing, and then won by roughly 3,200 votes — and argues national Democrats are far more relieved than they'll ever admit. Had Hong won, she'd have become a face of the party while being forced to spend the fall answering for past statements about defunding police, abolishing prisons, and canceling Thanksgiving rather than talking about the economy, handing Republicans an absurdly easy story to tell. Chuck credits Tony Evers for refusing to fence-sit and mounting what amounted to an emergency rescue operation, while noting Crowley isn't remotely "establishment" — he came from genuinely modest roots and ran a campaign largely defined by what he wasn't. Chuck identifies Hong's central unforced error as nationalizing her race in the closing weeks, a fundraising-driven instinct in an era where media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appeals, forgetting that the national online audience and the local electorate are not the same people. Mamdani stayed disciplined and won; Hong drifted into boutique cultural debates and lost. But Chuck cautions against reading this as a repudiation of the left: Peggy Flanagan won in Minnesota, progressives are doing better this cycle than they have in years, and the 2027 House will be younger and slightly further left. The real structural lesson is that progressives struggle in higher-turnout and open primaries, still face a persistent obstacle with African American primary voters, and — most tellingly — keep getting rejected by the working-class voters they orient their entire message toward, which is more than a messaging glitch. Abdul El-Sayed emerges a quiet winner here, now much harder to lump in with the DSA, and Chuck notes that neither AOC nor Bernie ever endorsed Hong.

The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy.

Then, Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass.

The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself? 

Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother.

Thanks to our sponsors:

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI

04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won

05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party

06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic

07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics

08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell

08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA

10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit

11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over

12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism

13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota

15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives

16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them

17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch

18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives

19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries

20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees

21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks

22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising

22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances

23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people

24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t

25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them

26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies

26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up

28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess

29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley

30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots

31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley

32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong

33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem

34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won

36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems

38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked

40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives

42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive

42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle

43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left

44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t

46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors

47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket?

49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party

50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over

51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries

51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary

52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote

53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff

55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping

57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary

57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970

58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House

59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter

1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice

1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note

1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly

1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message

1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said

1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger

1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company

1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public

1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party

1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training 

1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model

1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things

1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too

1:16:45 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:17:45 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan”

1:18:00 What is the plan?

1:18:30 To get political change we need, we need to change the system

1:19:15 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level

1:19:45 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform

1:20:30 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess

1:22:30 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom

1:23:00 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems

1:24:00 We keep having change elections, then not getting change

1:26:15 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history

1:29:15 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win

1:30:15 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote

1:31:45 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself

1:36:15 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument?

1:36:45 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing

1:39:15 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare

1:40:00 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass

1:41:00 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters

1:42:15 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws

1:43:00 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book

1:43:30 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age

1:44:45 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov?

1:45:30 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years

1:46:30 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy

1:47:30 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate

1:48:45 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle

1:51:30 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden?

1:52:15 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs

1:53:00 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works

1:55:00 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it

1:56:30 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters

1:57:00 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it

1:57:45 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems

1:58:15 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done

1:58:45 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win

2:01:15 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say

2:02:45 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan

2:04:15 How big should the Democratic tent be?

2:05:15 The coalition looks different in different states

2:06:45 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era

2:07:30 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model

2:08:00 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes”

2:09:45 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties

2:12:30 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies

2:13:30 You build a local brand through your actions over time

2:14:15 When did you first think about running for office?

2:16:15 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games

2:17:45 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season

2:19:00 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?

2:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets

2:22:30 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC

2:23:30 #4 Carol Moseley Braun

2:24:15 #3 Andrew Gillum

2:25:15 #2 Eric Cantor

2:26:15 #1 David Crawley

2:27:45 Honorable mentions

2:29:15 Ask Chuck

2:29:30 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome?

2:32:30 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5?

2:40:15 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him?

2:44:15 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed?

2:46:45 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger

2:47:45 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out

2:48:30 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion

2:50:00 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now

2:51:00 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet

2:51:45 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore

2:52:30 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats

2:53:30 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent

2:55:00 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shocking

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass.

The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself? 

Thanks to the sponsors of The Chuck ToddCast:

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan”

01:15 What is the plan?

01:45 To get political change we need, we need to change the system

02:30 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level

03:00 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform

03:45 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess

05:45 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom

06:15 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems

07:15 We keep having change elections, then not getting change

09:30 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history

12:30 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win

13:30 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote

15:00 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself

19:30 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument?

20:00 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing

22:30 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare

23:15 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass

24:15 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters

25:30 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws

26:15 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book

26:45 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age

28:00 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov?

28:45 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years

29:45 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy

30:45 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate

32:00 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle

34:45 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden?

35:30 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs

36:15 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works

38:15 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it

39:45 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters

40:15 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it

41:00 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems

41:30 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done

42:00 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win

44:30 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say

46:00 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan

47:30 How big should the Democratic tent be? 

48:30 The coalition looks different in different states

50:00 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era

50:45 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model

51:15 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes”

53:00 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties

55:45 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies

56:45 You build a local brand through your actions over time

57:30 When did you first think about running for office?

59:30 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games

1:01:00 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season

1:02:15 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With 84 days to the midterms and a six-state primary night ahead, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Chuck's least-hedged read of the cycle: Democrats haven't had a good summer, but Republicans have had a worse one, and every macro trend points to something in the neighborhood of 30 House seats and six or seven Senate seats. The only thing holding him back from calling it a pasting is the Democratic brand problem — and they dig into the polling behind it, including why Hillary Clinton's warning that the socialism-and-communism attack could land is worth taking seriously. That leads to the sharpest segment of the episode: whether Abdul El-Sayed needs to give a version of the Kennedy "I don't work for the Pope" or Obama race speech about being a Muslim American, why the traditional consultant advice to ignore it is wrong, and where he'd give it. They then flip the question to the other side, asking whether Josh Shapiro, Jon Ossoff, Rahm Emanuel, or JB Pritzker will face a parallel demand to publicly separate loyalty to the Constitution from loyalty to Israel.

The back half is a clinic in reading political spin. Tim Scott's claim that Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats prompts a broader riff on why partisans now get punished for telling the truth, and why both the political industry and the media have built incentives against saying what's obvious. They break down AOC's remarkable weekend — announcing she's freezing her eggs, then telling Jon Karl she hasn't ruled out 2028 — and what it signals about staking a claim to the progressive lane before El-Sayed can. Chuck makes the case that parenthood is a real asset in presidential politics, and they assess whether Ossoff, now climbing the prediction markets, has the hunger and stamina for it, plus why Shapiro sometimes reads as a try-hard. They close with a genuinely angry exchange about Bill Cassidy's Blanche vote, the threats reshaping how senators vote, and a Nats-and-Reds baseball detour.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 84 days out and a six-state primary night ahead

00:45 Previewing the primaries

01:37 Republicans had a worse summer than Democrats

02:49 Trump makes it harder. Congress did nothing to earn reelection

03:14 Why the macro says 30 House seats and 6-7 Senate seats

04:02 Does the nominee even matter in an environment this bad?

05:14 Hillary Clinton's warning about the socialism-communism attack

06:14 In wave years, the losing party always thinks it's found a lifeline

06:45 Where the communism attack could actually work 

08:27 Did "Comrade Kamala" actually help Trump in 2024?

09:42 The attack only lands if a seed has already been planted

10:47 The mailbag question: Islamophobia in the Michigan race

11:11 Using El-Sayed's full name isn't even a dog whistle

12:10 Should El-Sayed give an Islam speech?

12:55 Why the consultant advice — stay on affordability — is wrong here

14:13 The Obama-and-Reverend-Wright precedent

15:45 Mike Rogers, Hassan Piker & a false attribution in circulation

17:24 Jackie Robinson, Kennedy, and breaking barriers

20:15 The flip side: will a Jewish candidate face the same demand?

22:10 The line each of them may have to draw on Netanyahu

23:02 Fever swamp vs. what voters actually care about

23:33 The insulting premise, and the Catholic parallel from the 1950s

25:05 Tim Scott tells Manu Raju Republicans will have 54 seats

26:51 Why partisans now get punished for telling the truth

28:49 Scott on Paxton, and what you're required to say out loud

30:42 Why they do the live streams — no election-night patty cake

31:47 The rare politicians who still say it plainly

32:41 AOC announces she's freezing her eggs

33:26 AOC says she's open to 2028

34:45 The El-Sayed factor: a swing-state progressive with more juice

36:23 Chuck's argument: you're a stronger candidate if you're a parent

37:52 Bush, Obama, Biden & families as political assets

38:51 Even Trump's kids softened him in 2016

41:08 The Howard Stern statistic about listeners who hate you

41:24 Ossoff passes Newsom in the Kalshi and Polymarket 2028 odds

42:10 Why Ossoff clearly has the ambition

44:08 Ossoff and Pritzker could bridge the party's divide

45:17 Pritzker's own money and his own record

46:07 Does Mark Kelly have the hunger? Does Wes Moore?

47:47 Where Shapiro crosses from wanting it to trying too hard

48:28 Des Moines in November, and why nobody likes a try-hard

49:18 Cassidy & Blanche 

50:40 The part that doesn't get reported: threats to families

51:21 You signed up to put the public ahead of yourself

53:15 Trump tells Punchbowl the voters are angry at Republicans, not him

53:46 Will he actually spend the super PAC money? 

54:04 The truth-serum question: would Trump rather be replaced by a Democrat?

54:20 Nats sweep the Reds

55:32 What is wrong with the Cincinnati Reds?

57:42 The Nats' 34-year-old analytics manager

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Greenland oil expedition, an episode so strange it borders on parody: an American oil company drilling in defiance of another country's laws, with Trump's blessing, and — the detail that breaks the brain — Dr. Phil hired to document the whole thing. It's a fitting overture for a week in which the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as Attorney General 50-49 at four in the morning before fleeing town for recess, with only Collins and Murkowski defecting. Chuck admits he was wrong; he never thought Blanche would actually get there. What galls him is the surrender it represents. Bill Cassidy's rationale — that Trump "needs someone to tell him no" — is laughable given that Blanche has said outright that the rule of law belongs to Trump and the DOJ won't be independent. John Cornyn's shrug that "there's nothing we can do to rein in the president" is, Chuck argues, the confession of a coward: senators possess the authority and simply refuse to use it, giving away what little leverage they had. The debate has now been reduced to whether the Attorney General is the people's lawyer or the president's.

Then takes on the question of why Democratic voters keep rewarding progressives whose politics they don't actually share, and his answer is that half the Democratic electorate did not suddenly become socialist — they're furious about 2024, and specifically about leadership deciding the nominee for them. They didn't dislike Harris; they wanted a choice, and they'd watched the establishment coalesce around Biden in 2020 to produce a presidency that ended with Trump's return. Progressives are the only Democrats willing to say the party screwed up, and voters will give you enormous latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis. Chuck illustrates it with a Washington Post story about the Conn brass instrument factory in Ohio, bought by Trump-supporting, tariff-championing investor John Paulson and now closing as production moves offshore — where the disillusioned employees don't plan to vote at all, because they feel the system has failed them for decades. He believes the opening in American politics right now isn't centrism, it's breaking up an establishment that voters believe is more worried about losing donors than losing their votes. He wonders aloud whether the answer is a military leader — he's intrigued by retired General Chris Donahue, essentially Captain America on paper, pushed out by Trump and Hegseth, with credibility across the aisle. Americans are exhausted by being told the other half of the country is the bad guy, they're desperate for honesty and a reboot of a captured government, and the space is wide open for someone to fill it. But Chuck’s closing caution matters: the system is badly screwed up, and that still isn't a reason to burn it all down.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit two different but related events: the signing of the Social Security Act by FDR, and Richard Nixon announcing price and wage controls to combat inflation. Chuck argues that America has always flirted with socialism even if we call it by another name. He also answers listeners questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Trump’s crazy Greenland oil adventure 

01:15 Trump is just ignoring the laws of another country

01:45 Craziest detail is oil company hired Dr. Phil to document the expedition

02:15 Trump has gone out of his way to alienate European allies

02:45 Oprah gave us Dr. Oz & Dr. Phil… which is not a good thing

06:45 U.S. senate leaves town for recess after passing funding bill

07:15 Todd Blanche is now the confirmed AG for the United States

08:00 Republicans passed none of the things they said are priorities

09:00 GOP has a trifecta and still can’t get anything done

10:00 Was wrong about Blanche, didn’t think he’d actually get confirmed

10:45 Confirmed 50-49, not surprising Collins & Murkowski defected

11:45 Cassidy’s rationale was “Trump needs someone to tell him no”

12:15 Cassidy’s rationale is laughable

13:15 Even Bill Barr had a line he wouldn’t cross with Trump

14:45 The senate gave away what little leverage they have with Trump

16:00 John Cornyn says “there’s nothing we can do to rein in the president”

16:30 These Republicans are cowards, won’t exercise their authority*

17:00 These senators need to do their job

18:00 Blanche said the rule of law belongs to Trump, DOJ won’t be independent

19:00 Debate is now if AG is the people’s lawyer or the president’s lawyer

19:45 If he were alive, Trump would have nominated Roy Cohn

20:30 You don’t want presidents deciding who gets investigated

21:30 Trump got involved with Reflecting Pool vandal case THIS WEEK

22:30 Trump’s entire life has been about wearing people down

23:15 Republicans have politicized DOJ more than any previous admin

23:45 MAGA’s premise is that two wrongs do make a right

24:15 Does anybody in congress understand the constitution?

25:30 Confirming Blanche will cause more public distrust in DOJ

26:30 Founders never wanted the president to determine rule of law

27:00 Senate didn’t get crypto or college sports bill passed before recess

27:45 Republicans claim SAVE act is existential, didn’t pass it

28:45 Why do voters entertain progressives that don’t align with them?

29:15 Half the democratic electorate didn’t suddenly become socialist

30:30 Democratic voters are pissed off, think party messed up in 2024

31:00 Voters are mad leadership decided who the ‘24 nominee would be

31:30 Voters didn’t dislike Harris, but they wanted a choice

32:30 In 2020, the establishment coalesced around Biden

33:15 Biden’s presidency was a failure since it resulted in Trump returning

34:00 Progressives are the only Dems saying the party screwed up

35:30 Like Trump, the progressives are saying leadership is full of shit

36:15 Voters will give you latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis

37:00 WaPo story about Conn factory closing & private equity

38:00 Factory is in Ohio, been making brass instruments

38:45 Factory is closing and laying off all the employees

39:30 Conn was bought by John Paulson, Trump supporter who supports tariffs

40:30 Paulson is moving production offshore after arguing against it

42:00 Plant employees were completely disillusioned with politics

43:00 Employees feel like the system has left them down for decades, won’t vote

44:30 Romney’s loss was due to millions of white voters sitting out entirely

45:15 Trump’s appeal brought those voters back into the electorate

47:15 Voters reward candidates that can diagnose & call out their problems

48:00 Trump proved politically dormant voters can be reactivated

48:30 There’s always a third destination for voters… the couch

49:00 If the two parties don’t reform themselves, they risk being replaced

50:15 The opening isn’t centrism, it’s breaking up the establishment

51:15 Politics requires huge amounts of money, results in capture

52:15 Voters believe reps are more worried about losing donors than their vote

53:00 Competence and morality are not the same thing in politics

53:45 Leaders need to admit that they screwed everything up

54:30 Americans are desperate for a reset & are embracing revolutionaries

55:00 A military leader might be exactly what we need in next president

55:45 Intrigued by retired general Chris Donahue & his resume

56:45 Donahue is basically Captain America & was forced out by Trump & Hegseth

58:15 Someone like Donahue could have the credibility across the aisle

59:30 Politics won’t acknowledge failure if they think it helps the other side

1:00:00 Americans are desperate for honesty & morality in politics

1:01:15 It’s exhausting being told the other half of America is the bad guys

1:03:15 Voters want to preserve the Republic, but don’t trust the leadership

1:04:00 Voters want a reboot, and a government that isn’t captured

1:05:00 The political space is waiting for someone to fill this vacuum

1:06:00 The system is screwed up, but we shouldn’t burn it all down

1:11:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Where America embraces socialism

1:12:30 Socialist policies have come from presidents of both parties

1:13:45 FDR signs the Social Security Act - Nixon announces price & wage controls

1:14:45 Americans worry about prosperity, not ideological consistency

1:17:15 Capitalism was being questioned after the Great Depression

1:17:45 FDR wanted to repair, not replace capitalism

1:18:30 Social Security started as a much smaller program than it is today

1:19:15 Congress continued adding to the program over the years

1:21:15 America imposed price & wage controls during WW2 that went beyond Nixon

1:22:00 August 15, 1971 - Nixon announces price & wage controls

1:23:15 Nixon was desperate to stop inflation

1:24:15 Administration announced ceilings on meat prices, caused shortages

1:25:30 The controls were lifted right before the election

1:26:45 We have plenty of socialist policies called by another name

1:27:45 The policies give the sense of individual control

1:28:30 Americans are allergic to government control over their choices

1:29:15 Government under Trump is acquiring stakes in American companies

1:31:00 America has always been more socialist than we like to admit

1:32:45 Ask Chuck

1:33:00 Are college educated Republican voters on the journey leftward?

1:37:00 How should Abdul El-Sayed respond to racist & Islamophobic attacks?

1:45:30 Do candidates on the same ballot create measurable coattails?

1:50:00 Any chance Republicans voted for El-Sayed thinking he’d be easier to beat?

1:53:00 Was Pirro’s dropping of Reflecting Pool case an offramp for Trump?

1:56:00 How does an everyday person help make real political change?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Greenland oil expedition, an episode so strange it borders on parody: an American oil company drilling in defiance of another country's laws, with Trump's blessing, and — the detail that breaks the brain — Dr. Phil hired to document the whole thing. It's a fitting overture for a week in which the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as Attorney General 50-49 at four in the morning before fleeing town for recess, with only Collins and Murkowski defecting. Chuck admits he was wrong; he never thought Blanche would actually get there. What galls him is the surrender it represents. Bill Cassidy's rationale — that Trump "needs someone to tell him no" — is laughable given that Blanche has said outright that the rule of law belongs to Trump and the DOJ won't be independent. John Cornyn's shrug that "there's nothing we can do to rein in the president" is, Chuck argues, the confession of a coward: senators possess the authority and simply refuse to use it, giving away what little leverage they had. The debate has now been reduced to whether the Attorney General is the people's lawyer or the president's.

Then takes on the question of why Democratic voters keep rewarding progressives whose politics they don't actually share, and his answer is that half the Democratic electorate did not suddenly become socialist — they're furious about 2024, and specifically about leadership deciding the nominee for them. They didn't dislike Harris; they wanted a choice, and they'd watched the establishment coalesce around Biden in 2020 to produce a presidency that ended with Trump's return. Progressives are the only Democrats willing to say the party screwed up, and voters will give you enormous latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis. Chuck illustrates it with a Washington Post story about the Conn brass instrument factory in Ohio, bought by Trump-supporting, tariff-championing investor John Paulson and now closing as production moves offshore — where the disillusioned employees don't plan to vote at all, because they feel the system has failed them for decades. He believes the opening in American politics right now isn't centrism, it's breaking up an establishment that voters believe is more worried about losing donors than losing their votes. He wonders aloud whether the answer is a military leader — he's intrigued by retired General Chris Donahue, essentially Captain America on paper, pushed out by Trump and Hegseth, with credibility across the aisle. Americans are exhausted by being told the other half of the country is the bad guy, they're desperate for honesty and a reboot of a captured government, and the space is wide open for someone to fill it. But Chuck’s closing caution matters: the system is badly screwed up, and that still isn't a reason to burn it all down.

Then, Oscar-nominated documentarian Rory Kennedy joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing, her Netflix follow-up to 2022's Downfall premiering August 19th — a film built around the death of whistleblower John Barnett and the current and former employees who came forward after it. Kennedy's central finding is damning in its simplicity: at the end of Downfall, Boeing swore it had learned its lesson and changed its ways. It hadn't. More incidents followed, whistleblowers reached out to tell her conditions had actually gotten worse, and she says she believes Boeing bears responsibility for Barnett's death. Kennedy walks Chuck through the structural rot she sees behind the headlines — a near-total lack of competition, a revolving door between the FAA and the company it's supposed to regulate, a McDonnell Douglas merger that reoriented the entire culture around quarterly earnings instead of engineering excellence, and the decision to leave Seattle in search of a non-union workforce — which matters enormously, she notes, because unions are what give workers real whistleblower protection. Boeing is simultaneously one of the most heavily subsidized companies in American history and, right now, one that isn't being held accountable in any meaningful way.

Kennedy is unusually direct about the practical takeaway: she won't fly on a 737 MAX and actively chooses flights on other aircraft, pointing out the counterintuitive reality that older model planes are often the safer bet — a consumer shift that has hit budget airlines hardest. She and Chuck get into the incidents that never made national news, including oxygen masks that failed to work, and she's blunt that the Trump administration hasn't provided anything resembling adequate regulatory oversight while families of the 346 crash victims are still fighting to hold the company responsible. Kennedy sees this fall's elections as a genuine chance to put people in place who care about the flying public, and reflects candidly on how she's feeling about American politics generally — that this administration is making choices that are hurting a lot of people. There's also a lovely detour into Ethel, her documentary about her mother, which she says holds a special place in her heart, plus a look at what she's working on next.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit two different but related events: the signing of the Social Security Act by FDR, and Richard Nixon announcing price and wage controls to combat inflation. Chuck argues that America has always flirted with socialism even if we call it by another name. He also answers listeners questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Trump’s crazy Greenland oil adventure 

01:15 Trump is just ignoring the laws of another country

01:45 Craziest detail is oil company hired Dr. Phil to document the expedition

02:15 Trump has gone out of his way to alienate European allies

02:45 Oprah gave us Dr. Oz & Dr. Phil… which is not a good thing

06:45 U.S. senate leaves town for recess after passing funding bill

07:15 Todd Blanche is now the confirmed AG for the United States

08:00 Republicans passed none of the things they said are priorities

09:00 GOP has a trifecta and still can’t get anything done

10:00 Was wrong about Blanche, didn’t think he’d actually get confirmed

10:45 Confirmed 50-49, not surprising Collins & Murkowski defected

11:45 Cassidy’s rationale was “Trump needs someone to tell him no”

12:15 Cassidy’s rationale is laughable

13:15 Even Bill Barr had a line he wouldn’t cross with Trump

14:45 The senate gave away what little leverage they have with Trump

16:00 John Cornyn says “there’s nothing we can do to rein in the president”

16:30 These Republicans are cowards, won’t exercise their authority*

17:00 These senators need to do their job

18:00 Blanche said the rule of law belongs to Trump, DOJ won’t be independent

19:00 Debate is now if AG is the people’s lawyer or the president’s lawyer

19:45 If he were alive, Trump would have nominated Roy Cohn

20:30 You don’t want presidents deciding who gets investigated

21:30 Trump got involved with Reflecting Pool vandal case THIS WEEK

22:30 Trump’s entire life has been about wearing people down

23:15 Republicans have politicized DOJ more than any previous admin

23:45 MAGA’s premise is that two wrongs do make a right

24:15 Does anybody in congress understand the constitution?

25:30 Confirming Blanche will cause more public distrust in DOJ

26:30 Founders never wanted the president to determine rule of law

27:00 Senate didn’t get crypto or college sports bill passed before recess

27:45 Republicans claim SAVE act is existential, didn’t pass it

28:45 Why do voters entertain progressives that don’t align with them?

29:15 Half the democratic electorate didn’t suddenly become socialist

30:30 Democratic voters are pissed off, think party messed up in 2024

31:00 Voters are mad leadership decided who the ‘24 nominee would be

31:30 Voters didn’t dislike Harris, but they wanted a choice

32:30 In 2020, the establishment coalesced around Biden

33:15 Biden’s presidency was a failure since it resulted in Trump returning

34:00 Progressives are the only Dems saying the party screwed up

35:30 Like Trump, the progressives are saying leadership is full of shit

36:15 Voters will give you latitude on the cure if they trust your diagnosis

37:00 WaPo story about Conn factory closing & private equity

38:00 Factory is in Ohio, been making brass instruments

38:45 Factory is closing and laying off all the employees

39:30 Conn was bought by John Paulson, Trump supporter who supports tariffs

40:30 Paulson is moving production offshore after arguing against it

42:00 Plant employees were completely disillusioned with politics

43:00 Employees feel like the system has left them down for decades, won’t vote

44:30 Romney’s loss was due to millions of white voters sitting out entirely

45:15 Trump’s appeal brought those voters back into the electorate

47:15 Voters reward candidates that can diagnose & call out their problems

48:00 Trump proved politically dormant voters can be reactivated

48:30 There’s always a third destination for voters… the couch

49:00 If the two parties don’t reform themselves, they risk being replaced

50:15 The opening isn’t centrism, it’s breaking up the establishment

51:15 Politics requires huge amounts of money, results in capture

52:15 Voters believe reps are more worried about losing donors than their vote

53:00 Competence and morality are not the same thing in politics

53:45 Leaders need to admit that they screwed everything up

54:30 Americans are desperate for a reset & are embracing revolutionaries

55:00 A military leader might be exactly what we need in next president

55:45 Intrigued by retired general Chris Donahue & his resume

56:45 Donahue is basically Captain America & was forced out by Trump & Hegseth

58:15 Someone like Donahue could have the credibility across the aisle

59:30 Politics won’t acknowledge failure if they think it helps the other side

1:00:00 Americans are desperate for honesty & morality in politics

1:01:15 It’s exhausting being told the other half of America is the bad guys

1:03:15 Voters want to preserve the Republic, but don’t trust the leadership

1:04:00 Voters want a reboot, and a government that isn’t captured

1:05:00 The political space is waiting for someone to fill this vacuum

1:06:00 The system is screwed up, but we shouldn’t burn it all down

1:13:00 Rory Kennedy (Freefall) joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:14:30 Documentary “Ethel” about her mother holds special place in her heart

1:15:30 It became evident that Boeing knew about faulty systems on 737 MAX

1:16:15 Boeing swore they’d change, then more incidents happened

1:17:15 Believe Boeing is responsible for whistleblower John Barnett’s death

1:19:15 Lack of competition is one of the reasons Boeing has been sloppy

1:20:15 There’s a revolving door between the FAA and Boeing

1:22:00 Are Boeing’s problems coming from a single source, or multiple?

1:23:45 Boeing has long been a foundational American company

1:24:30 Parts for Boeing planes come from all over the world

1:26:00 Whistleblowers reached out to say problems had gotten worse

1:27:00 Right now, Boeing isn’t being held accountable

1:27:30 Haven’t seen Boeing make significant changes

1:29:15 Focus on profits and quarterly earnings outweighed safety

1:30:00 Boeing is one of the most subsidized companies in US history

1:31:00 McDonnell-Douglas merger has contributed to Boeing’s downfall

1:33:30 Wouldn’t fly on a 737 MAX and choose flights on other planes

1:36:00 Consumers choosing not to fly on the 737 MAX hurt budget airlines

1:37:00 Older model planes are actually safer

1:38:30 Decision to leave Seattle was to find a non-union workforce

1:39:45 Unions protect workers, give them whistleblower protection

1:41:00 Airbus is a better run company than Boeing

1:42:30 Boeing and Airbus are the only two options

1:44:45 The Trump administration hasn’t provided proper regulation for Boeing

1:45:15 Families of crash victims are still trying to hold Boeing responsible

1:48:15 Elections this fall could put people in place who care about the public

1:49:45 Incidents where the oxygen masks weren’t working

1:51:30 How are you feeling about politics these days?

1:52:00 Administration is making choices that are hurting a lot of people

1:53:30 What projects do you have coming up next?

1:56:00 Had a screening at Boeing with top executives

1:57:15 ToddCast Time Machine - Where America embraces socialism

1:58:45 Socialist policies have come from presidents of both parties

2:00:00 FDR signs the Social Security Act - Nixon announces price & wage controls

2:01:00 Americans worry about prosperity, not ideological consistency

2:03:30 Capitalism was being questioned after the Great Depression

2:04:00 FDR wanted to repair, not replace capitalism

2:04:45 Social Security started as a much smaller program than it is today

2:05:30 Congress continued adding to the program over the years

2:07:30 America imposed price & wage controls during WW2 that went beyond Nixon

2:08:15 August 15, 1971 - Nixon announces price & wage controls

2:09:30 Nixon was desperate to stop inflation

2:10:30 Administration announced ceilings on meat prices, caused shortages

2:11:45 The controls were lifted right before the election

2:13:00 We have plenty of socialist policies called by another name

2:14:00 The policies give the sense of individual control

2:14:45 Americans are allergic to government control over their choices

2:15:30 Government under Trump is acquiring stakes in American companies

2:17:15 America has always been more socialist than we like to admit

2:19:00 Ask Chuck

2:19:15 Are college educated Republican voters on the journey leftward?

2:23:15 How should Abdul El-Sayed respond to racist & Islamophobic attacks?

2:31:45 Do candidates on the same ballot create measurable coattails?

2:36:15 Any chance Republicans voted for El-Sayed thinking he’d be easier to beat?

2:39:15 Was Pirro’s dropping of Reflecting Pool case an offramp for Trump?

2:42:15 How does an everyday person help make real political change?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oscar-nominated documentarian Rory Kennedy joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing, her Netflix follow-up to 2022's Downfall premiering August 19th — a film built around the death of whistleblower John Barnett and the current and former employees who came forward after it. Kennedy's central finding is damning in its simplicity: at the end of Downfall, Boeing swore it had learned its lesson and changed its ways. It hadn't. More incidents followed, whistleblowers reached out to tell her conditions had actually gotten worse, and she says she believes Boeing bears responsibility for Barnett's death. Kennedy walks Chuck through the structural rot she sees behind the headlines — a near-total lack of competition, a revolving door between the FAA and the company it's supposed to regulate, a McDonnell Douglas merger that reoriented the entire culture around quarterly earnings instead of engineering excellence, and the decision to leave Seattle in search of a non-union workforce — which matters enormously, she notes, because unions are what give workers real whistleblower protection. Boeing is simultaneously one of the most heavily subsidized companies in American history and, right now, one that isn't being held accountable in any meaningful way.

Kennedy is unusually direct about the practical takeaway: she won't fly on a 737 MAX and actively chooses flights on other aircraft, pointing out the counterintuitive reality that older model planes are often the safer bet — a consumer shift that has hit budget airlines hardest. She and Chuck get into the incidents that never made national news, including oxygen masks that failed to work, and she's blunt that the Trump administration hasn't provided anything resembling adequate regulatory oversight while families of the 346 crash victims are still fighting to hold the company responsible. Kennedy sees this fall's elections as a genuine chance to put people in place who care about the flying public, and reflects candidly on how she's feeling about American politics generally — that this administration is making choices that are hurting a lot of people. There's also a lovely detour into Ethel, her documentary about her mother, which she says holds a special place in her heart, plus a look at what she's working on next.

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

00:00 Rory Kennedy (Freefall) joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Documentary “Ethel” about her mother holds special place in her heart

02:30 It became evident that Boeing knew about faulty systems on 737 MAX

03:15 Boeing swore they’d change, then more incidents happened

04:15 Believe Boeing is responsible for whistleblower John Barnett’s death

06:15 Lack of competition is one of the reasons Boeing has been sloppy

07:15 There’s a revolving door between the FAA and Boeing

09:00 Are Boeing’s problems coming from a single source, or multiple?

10:45 Boeing has long been a foundational American company

11:30 Parts for Boeing planes come from all over the world

13:00 Whistleblowers reached out to say problems had gotten worse

14:00 Right now, Boeing isn’t being held accountable

14:30 Haven’t seen Boeing make significant changes

16:15 Focus on profits and quarterly earnings outweighed safety

17:00 Boeing is one of the most subsidized companies in US history

18:00 McDonell-Douglas merger has contributed to Boeing’s downfall

20:30 Wouldn’t fly on a 737 Max and choose flights on other planes

23:00 Consumers choosing not to fly on the 737 Max hurt budget airlines

24:00 Older model planes are actually safer

25:30 Decision to leave Seattle was to find a non-union workforce

26:45 Unions protect workers, give them whistleblower protection

28:00 Airbus is a better run company than Boeing

29:30 Boeing and Airbus are the only two options 

31:45 The Trump administration hasn’t provided proper regulation for Boeing

32:15 Families of crash victims are still trying to hold Boeing responsible

35:15 Elections this fall could put people in place who care about the public

36:45 Incidents where the oxygen masks weren’t working

38:30 How are you feeling about politics these days?

39:00 Administration is making choices that are hurting a lot of people

40:30 What projects do you have coming up next?

43:00 Had a screening at Boeing with top executives

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd breaks down a primary night that scrambled the Senate map, starting in Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed edged Rep. Haley Stevens by roughly 20,000 votes — overcoming a nearly 8-to-1 spending disadvantage in what became the most expensive Senate primary in American history. He argues the narrow margin was actually the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed, and while Michigan is now a harder general election for Democrats against Mike Rogers, El-Sayed can absolutely win it. The most fascinating data point buried in the results: El-Sayed carried Grand Rapids and Kent County, a place that was solidly Republican for decades, evidence that there's a growing white progressive vote reshaping the Midwest. He pushes back on the sloppy way analysts label party factions, preferring "movement" versus "governing" factions to the usual progressive-moderate shorthand, notes that electability is always situational, and cautions that money makes races competitive without guaranteeing wins. He flags that Wisconsin is now the next big test, where nobody should assume Francesca Hong runs away with it. He also spotlights results that flew under the radar: pastor Adam Hamilton beat ten other Democrats to become nominee Republicans will struggle to caricature against Roger Marshall, meaning Kansas joins Iowa as a genuine pickup opportunity in a cycle where Trump's tariffs have wrecked agricultural states. Republicans, meanwhile, leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed on day one, which Chuck suspects could badly boomerang. He argues the GOP would love to be rid of Max Miller, whose personal issues could drag down Bernie Moreno, though even replacing him may cost the GOP three to five points — and closes on the surreal spectacle of a president losing an increasingly global war while obsessing over his reflecting pool: Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing publicly and another in court, Trump says she "choked" when really she choked on reality, and Chuck’s read is that Trump wanted a headline more than a case, may be lashing out precisely because he's lost control of everything else, is desperate to get out of Iran, and might find that handing over the Strait is the least humiliating option left — all while his grip on his own voters keeps weakening. 

Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats… and couldn’t make it to 5. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Review of Tuesday’s primary results

05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win

06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party

08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed

09:30 Republicans don’t have many senate pickup opportunities

11:30 El-Sayed’s winning margin will be less than 20k votes
13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids

14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades

16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren’t voting for the GOP

17:30 There’s a growing white, progressive vote

19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton

20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold

23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties

23:45 Prefer the label of “movement” vs. “governing” factions

24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation

25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn’t guarantee victory

27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win

29:15 Don’t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI

31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary

33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar

34:45 Founders didn’t want judges to be elected & subject to voters

35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court

36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed

37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans

37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one

38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\

39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems

39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton

40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race

41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election

43:00 Trump’s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states

44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats

46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes

46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes

47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax

49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser

49:30 Voters don’t like subsidizing rich people

50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly

50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller

50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women

51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues

52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically

53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida

55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty

55:45 Iran war is going sideways & Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool

56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public & another in court

57:15 Trump says she “choked”... she choked on reality

58:00 Trump doesn’t care the facts didn’t meet the case, wanted a headline

58:30 Maybe he’s angry because he’s lost control of everything else, like Iran

59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war

1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high

1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option

1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over

1:02:45 Trump’s grip on his voters has weakened

1:08:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats

1:10:45 #1 Kansas governor

1:12:15 #2 Michigan senate

1:14:00 #3 Oregon governor

1:15:15 #4 Wisconsin governor

1:16:45 #5 None - There aren’t that many vulnerable Dem seats

1:19:45 Ask Chuck

1:20:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide?

1:23:30 Thoughts on the World Cup & sportsmanship displayed?

1:25:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings?

1:32:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work?

1:34:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting?

1:38:45 Does growing physical separation between public & leaders heighten their bubble?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd breaks down a primary night that scrambled the Senate map, starting in Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed edged Rep. Haley Stevens by roughly 20,000 votes — overcoming a nearly 8-to-1 spending disadvantage in what became the most expensive Senate primary in American history. He argues the narrow margin was actually the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed, and while Michigan is now a harder general election for Democrats against Mike Rogers, El-Sayed can absolutely win it. The most fascinating data point buried in the results: El-Sayed carried Grand Rapids and Kent County, a place that was solidly Republican for decades, evidence that there's a growing white progressive vote reshaping the Midwest. He pushes back on the sloppy way analysts label party factions, preferring "movement" versus "governing" factions to the usual progressive-moderate shorthand, notes that electability is always situational, and cautions that money makes races competitive without guaranteeing wins. He flags that Wisconsin is now the next big test, where nobody should assume Francesca Hong runs away with it. He also spotlights results that flew under the radar: pastor Adam Hamilton beat ten other Democrats to become nominee Republicans will struggle to caricature against Roger Marshall, meaning Kansas joins Iowa as a genuine pickup opportunity in a cycle where Trump's tariffs have wrecked agricultural states. Republicans, meanwhile, leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed on day one, which Chuck suspects could badly boomerang. He argues the GOP would love to be rid of Max Miller, whose personal issues could drag down Bernie Moreno, though even replacing him may cost the GOP three to five points — and closes on the surreal spectacle of a president losing an increasingly global war while obsessing over his reflecting pool: Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing publicly and another in court, Trump says she "choked" when really she choked on reality, and Chuck’s read is that Trump wanted a headline more than a case, may be lashing out precisely because he's lost control of everything else, is desperate to get out of Iran, and might find that handing over the Strait is the least humiliating option left — all while his grip on his own voters keeps weakening. 

Then, writer-director Michael Russell Gunn joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss The Brink of War, his feature debut about the 1986 Reykjavík Summit, hitting theaters August 14th with Jeff Daniels as Reagan, Jared Harris as Gorbachev, and J.K. Simmons as George Shultz. The film's origin story is its own remarkable piece of history: Gunn interviewed Shultz before his death in 2021, and Shultz handed him the declassified summit transcripts that became the script — the first scene between Reagan and Gorbachev is verbatim from that record. Gunn's argument for why this story matters right now is simple and pointed: these were two men with every reason to hate each other who sat in a room and tried to build a better world, at a moment when Americans have gotten very good at yelling and very bad at talking. He walks Chuck through what most people get wrong about Reykjavík — that Gorbachev was far younger than memory suggests, with no personal recollection of World War II (he brought the last WWII-era Soviet general with him to Iceland), that adversaries are always more politically divided internally than we perceive from the outside, and that the summit is simultaneously remembered as a triumph and a failure because a deal to eliminate every nuclear weapon on earth collapsed over a single word. Gunn notes that Americans instinctively read everything through game theory — winners and losers — while the Soviets understood the talks as one point on a longer arc, which is why Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare the whole thing a success.

The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjavík, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice — how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjavík as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%.

Finally Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats… and couldn’t make it to 5. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST

for 30% off your first order.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Review of Tuesday’s primary results

05:30 Michigan now harder for Dems in general, but El-Sayed can win

06:30 Wisconsin primary will be next big test of divide in Democratic party

08:45 Almost losing was the best thing that could have happened to El-Sayed

09:30 Republicans don’t have many senate pickup opportunities

11:30 El-Sayed’s winning margin will be less than 20k votes
13:00 El-Sayed won the race in Grand Rapids

14:15 Kent county was solidly Republican for decades

16:30 The moderate/Gerald Ford Republicans aren’t voting for the GOP

17:30 There’s a growing white, progressive vote

19:45 In 2016 many people voted for Bernie out of protest for Clinton

20:30 Fascinating that Grand Rapids became a progressive stronghold

23:00 Analysts have a hard time characterizing factions inside parties

23:45 Prefer the label of “movement” vs. “governing” factions

24:45 Electability depends on the state and the situation

25:15 Money makes races more competitive, doesn’t guarantee victory

27:30 Progressives will need a crowded primary in 2028 to win

29:15 Don’t assume Francesca Hong will run away in Dem primary in WI

31:45 Big questions loom over Wisconsin primary

33:15 Some big results in Kansas flew under the radar

34:45 Founders didn’t want judges to be elected & subject to voters

35:15 Kansas rejected elections for state Supreme Court

36:30 On day one, Republicans leaned into Islamophobia against El-Sayed

37:00 The Islamophobia could boomerang on Republicans

37:45 Dems keep putting more senate seats in play, Kansas is now one

38:15 Adam Hamilton is pastor of huge church in Kansas\

39:00 Hamilton has been a bridge builder, and beat 10 other Dems

39:45 Republicans will have a hard time making a caricature of Hamilton

40:30 Hamilton will have an unusual constituency going into the race

41:30 Roger Marshall has never had a stress test in a general election

43:00 Trump’s tariffs have caused huge problems in agriculture states

44:30 Iowa and Kansas are real pickup chances for Democrats

46:00 Missouri voters sent a message on the issue of taxes

46:45 Trump has long wanted to scrap income taxes

47:30 Voters reject a high sales tax replacing income tax

49:00 Tax credits for the KC Chiefs stadium was a political loser

49:30 Voters don’t like subsidizing rich people

50:00 More stories of Republican men behaving badly

50:15 Republicans would love to get rid of Max Miller

50:45 Trump always sides with the accused over the women

51:30 Max Miller has serious personal issues

52:45 Miller could have hurt Bernie Moreno politically

53:45 Multiple disgraced former members of congress in same race in Florida

55:00 Even if Miller is replaced, the party could face a 3-5 point penalty

55:45 Iran war is going sideways & Trump is worried about Reflecting Pool

56:30 Jeanine Pirro thought she could say one thing in public & another in court

57:15 Trump says she “choked”... she choked on reality

58:00 Trump doesn’t care the facts didn’t meet the case, wanted a headline

58:30 Maybe he’s angry because he’s lost control of everything else, like Iran

59:30 Trump is desperate to get out of the war

1:00:30 Chance of the war going global is uncomfortably high

1:01:30 Trump handing over the Strait might be least humiliating option

1:02:00 Reflecting pool may be the thing Trump feels he has control over

1:02:45 Trump’s grip on his voters has weakened

1:10:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:12:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story?

1:14:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits?

1:15:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War

1:16:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon

1:17:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was

1:18:30 Gorbachev didn’t have any memory of World War 2

1:19:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik

1:21:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them

1:22:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure

1:22:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it

1:23:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference “great”

1:23:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust

1:24:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history

1:25:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners & losers

1:25:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc

1:26:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie

1:28:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn’t

1:29:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful

1:30:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript

1:32:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage

1:34:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room

1:35:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik

1:37:45 The whole world was waiting/watching the summit with bated breath

1:38:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons?

1:39:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90%

1:40:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan?

1:41:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history?

1:42:30 How’d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made?

1:43:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio

1:44:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge

1:45:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history

1:46:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take

1:47:45 You’re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it

1:50:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc.

1:53:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories

1:55:15 What’s your dream project?

1:56:30 Need to “prove it” in order to get your dream project approved

1:59:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business?

2:00:45 Things you don’t get can be just as important as what you do get

2:02:00 ToddCast Top 5 Vulnerable Democratic Held Seats

2:04:45 #1 Kansas governor

2:06:15 #2 Michigan senate

2:08:00 #3 Oregon governor

2:09:15 #4 Wisconsin governor

2:10:45 #5 None - There aren’t that many vulnerable Dem seats

2:13:45 Ask Chuck

2:14:00 Is presidential health the only thing an administration can hide?

2:17:30 Thoughts on the World Cup & sportsmanship displayed?

2:19:00 Thoughts on the Fauci hearings?

2:26:00 Do bipartisan letters to the White House actually work?

2:28:30 Has politics discouraged a better investigation into the Butler shooting?

2:32:45 Does growing physical separation between public & leaders heighten their bubble?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Writer-director Michael Russell Gunn joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss The Brink of War, his feature debut about the 1986 Reykjavík Summit, hitting theaters August 14th with Jeff Daniels as Reagan, Jared Harris as Gorbachev, and J.K. Simmons as George Shultz. The film's origin story is its own remarkable piece of history: Gunn interviewed Shultz before his death in 2021, and Shultz handed him the declassified summit transcripts that became the script — the first scene between Reagan and Gorbachev is verbatim from that record. Gunn's argument for why this story matters right now is simple and pointed: these were two men with every reason to hate each other who sat in a room and tried to build a better world, at a moment when Americans have gotten very good at yelling and very bad at talking. He walks Chuck through what most people get wrong about Reykjavík — that Gorbachev was far younger than memory suggests, with no personal recollection of World War II (he brought the last WWII-era Soviet general with him to Iceland), that adversaries are always more politically divided internally than we perceive from the outside, and that the summit is simultaneously remembered as a triumph and a failure because a deal to eliminate every nuclear weapon on earth collapsed over a single word. Gunn notes that Americans instinctively read everything through game theory — winners and losers — while the Soviets understood the talks as one point on a longer arc, which is why Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare the whole thing a success.

The conversation also works as a genuinely useful look inside how difficult political history gets made in Hollywood. Gunn explains that he assembled the actors and script first and only then went to a studio, that Simmons was hunting for a real challenge and nailed Shultz's accent on the first take, and that Daniels prepared by looping an hour of Reagan interviews through his headphones while biking around Chelsea, Michigan. He talks about the nervousness surrounding the idea of putting the two leaders alone in a room, the enormous goodwill Reagan carried into Reykjavík, and the fact that the whole world genuinely waited on that weekend with bated breath. Gunn is candid about the projects that didn't happen (he wanted to make a film about the Nunn-Lugar amendment and couldn't get it off the ground), the tradeoffs between film and limited series as formats, and why audiences have proven far hungrier for true history than the industry assumes. He and Chuck close on career advice — how Gunn broke in, why you have to "prove it" before anyone green-lights your dream project, and his observation that the things you don't get can end up mattering just as much as the things you do. And for anyone tempted to write off Reykjavík as a failure: the summit paved the way for the INF Treaty a year later, and the world's nuclear arsenals have since come down roughly 90%.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Michael Russell Gunn (The Brink of War) joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:30 How much time should elapse before telling a historical story?

04:45 How strong was Gorbachev viewed at the time of the summits?

05:30 We were saved by junior people/officers during the Cold War

06:00 We came very close to nuclear armageddon

07:30 Gorbachev is remembered as older than he actually was

08:30 Gorbachev didn’t have any memory of World War 2

09:30 Gorbachev brought last WW2 era general to Reykjavik

11:15 Adversaries are more politically divided than we perceive them

12:00 Reykjavik is considered both a success and a failure

12:30 There was a deal to get rid of every nuke, one word tanked it

13:00 Gorbachev rushed to a press conference to declare conference “great”

13:45 Reagan and Gorbachev built a relationship and some trust

14:15 This was one of the greatest diplomatic achievements in history

15:00 Americans view everything in a game theory context, winners & losers

15:30 Soviets viewed talks as one point in an arc

16:00 Transcripts of the meeting helped in creating the movie

18:00 Wanted to create a movie about the Nunn-Lugar amendment, but couldn’t

19:30 Visual of Reagan sitting across from Gorbachev was powerful

20:45 First scene between Reagan and Gorbachev was verbatim from transcript

22:30 There was something profound about their willingness to engage

24:15 There was nervousness about having them alone in a room

25:45 Reagan carried immense goodwill from Americans into Reykjavik

27:45 The whole world was waiting/waiting the summit with bated breath

28:30 How close were we to getting rid of nuclear weapons?

29:30 We did end up reducing nuclear arsenals by 90%

30:00 How did Jeff Daniels prepare to play Reagan?

31:45 Difficulty getting mainstream actors to participate in political history?

32:30 How’d you pull off getting a difficult topic approved and made?

33:15 Got the actors and script first, then went to the studio

34:00 JK Simmons was looking for a real challenge

35:15 George Shultz is an unsung hero of American history

36:00 JK Simmons nailed Shultz's accent on the first take

37:45 You’re given more breadth in film, but not more time to produce it

40:30 What is the better format to tell a story? Movie, limited series etc

43:00 Audiences have proven to be hungry for true history stories

45:15 What’s your dream project?

46:30 Need to “prove it” in order to get your dream project approved

49:15 Career advice? How did you break in and succeed in the business?

50:45 Things you don’t get can be just as important as what you do get

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza burn the midnight oil for a rare Wednesday drop, breaking down a Michigan Senate primary that became the most expensive Democratic Senate primary contest in U.S. history and a genuine proxy war over the party's future. With Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens by a far narrower margin than the polling suggested, the guys unpack why Michigan is so hard to poll, why Black voters are routinely under-sampled in primary surveys, and what it says that the Whitmer-and-labor-backed machine kept this close — a double-digit El-Sayed win, Chuck argues, would have been a genuine indictment of the establishment. They then game out the general: why Republicans will now dump money into Michigan they'd never have spent against Stevens, why an Islamophobic campaign against El-Sayed could backfire spectacularly, and why the stakes for the progressive movement in 2028 are enormous either way. Plus: how the county-by-county map becomes a strategic document for every 2028 campaign now that Michigan sits in the early window.

From there they widen the lens to the sleeper races nobody's watching — Kansas, where megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton emerged from a crowded Democratic field and will face Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in November, plus South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa, where tariffs, deportations, and the ag economy have made supposedly safe seats interesting. They dig into the ugly Max Miller saga in Ohio ahead of the ballot deadline, why Trump's refusal to push him out is grimly consistent, and the human cost to a family caught in the middle. Then it's a bracing riff on whether Trump actually wants any Republican not named Trump to win in 2028, bearish takes on Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, a Chuck rant about why abolishing the Senate and packing the Court is magical thinking, and a closing lament about the Nats' fire sale.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 A swing state picks its most liberal Senate nominee ever 

00:41 Why Michigan polling is almost always wrong

00:59 The under-polled Black vote and why this race stayed close

01:48 Stevens had the machine — labor, Whitmer, and Wayne County

02:11 Double-digit El-Sayed win is an indictment of the establishment

03:18 The Bernie problem

05:18 Republicans will now spend far more against El-Sayed

05:44 Big money got rejected

06:29 Mike Rogers has never been a great fundraiser

07:16 This is now the only real Republican pickup opportunity

08:16 Maine goes regional — and why Collins is in big trouble

09:20 A loss is a body blow to the progressive movement

13:57 Why they held the episode until Wednesday

14:22 To Kansas: Adam Hamilton, wins the Democratic primary

15:15 Cook moves the race to Likely Republican 

16:36 School funding, Johnson County & the issue also lifting Rob Sand

17:49 From anti-Brownback coalition to an actual Democratic Party

18:35 Why South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas are all suddenly live

19:16 Is MAGA angry enough at Thune to punish Rounds?

20:13 Tariffs and deportations have hammered the ag economy

20:38 Nebraska's hard ceiling vs. Kansas's higher ceiling

22:26 Which is closer in November — Kansas or Nebraska?

23:29 Why the Islamophobia play could backfire 

24:29 Republicans' $300M advantage and where they'll actually spend it

27:27 Governing wing vs. movement wing

28:02 Why AOC engaged in Michigan but never for Graham Platner

29:03 The nationalization test: Talarico-Paxton or El-Sayed-Rogers?

32:41 The Max Miller deadline

33:38 Why the orchestrated exit didn't happen

34:00 Bernie Moreno, his daughter, and the family at the center of it

36:31 Why this is arguably bigger than the Platner story

38:52 Trump doesn't close the deal

39:53 Trump never accepts assault allegations as disqualifying

40:15 Trump puts himself before the party, always

41:06 Will he actually spend the MAGA Inc. money?

41:52 Trump doesn't want Vance or Rubio to win in 2028

43:41 Don Jr.'s changing online behavior — and what it might signal

45:05 Guilfoyle, Newsom & the weirdest political fact in America

45:31 Bearish on Gavin Newsom

47:38 Harris on abolishing the Electoral College and packing the Court

48:09 Changing the rules because you can't win under them

49:20 Why the Senate exists as a check on extremism

51:33 Both parties crashed this car

51:56 Why Schumer's anti-corruption bills are useless political theater

53:52 Congress was supposed to be the anti-corruption bureau

54:08 The Nats fire sale

55:26 Great franchises try to win now AND later

55:48 Manfred, the Dodgers & the coming salary-cap fight

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Iran war's arrival on American soil: hackers have hit water systems across multiple states in one of the most serious cyberattacks on U.S. water infrastructure in years and investigators probing an Iranian link. Trump's response tells you everything about the presidency in its current state — he didn't blame the attacker, he blamed the victim, using the hack as an occasion to attack Minnesota Democrats. Chuck’s question hangs over the whole segment: was Trump briefed on the Iranian connection and went after Minnesota anyway? Either way, the first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame, which Chuck calls a kind of polarization disease that leaves a president caring more about his narrative than about American citizens drinking the water. It fits a pattern the episode keeps circling: Jeanine Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury blaming a former Olympian for damage to the White House reflecting pool, dropped the case when Interior produced documents proving otherwise, and Trump publicly disagreed with dropping it because he still insists it was vandals. Chuck argues negative information never reaches Trump, and people who bring him bad news don't last long — which is how you end up with a president insisting affordability is a Democratic scam

Then, Chuck highlights a Wall Street Journal piece that lays out Trump's corruption — roughly $800 million raised through what amounts to an advertised pay-to-play scheme. Anti-corruption is a devastating midterm message sitting right there for Democrats to pick up… then Chuck Schumer rolled out a bill that Chuck calls a piece of garbage: it wouldn't even cover the conduct in the WSJ story, it's likely unconstitutional because it names individuals, and — most absurdly — it creates a new anti-corruption agency inside the executive branch, meaning a corrupt president would appoint its director and seven board members and, per the Supreme Court, could fire them at will. Congress can already do every bit of the oversight the agency would perform and Schumer's answer to executive corruption is to hand the executive more power and write Congress out of its own job. He closes on Michigan and Wisconsin as the clearest signals of where the Democratic Party is headed — Abdul El-Sayed running a movement inside a Senate race with the explicit goal of changing the party, DSA-endorsed Francesca Wong leading in Wisconsin while the establishment fails to coordinate against her — and on the DSA's new call to abolish the Senate, which Senate Democrats pushed back on without ever defending the institution. Chuck defends it himself: the Senate is a feature, not a bug, a brake on political extremism, and the right response to losing an argument is to win it rather than rewrite the rules. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Watergate and Richard Nixon’s resignation, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 The Iran war has become a global conflict

06:45 Once again Trump issues threats, then walks them back

08:15 War is one of biggest strategic mistakes in decades

09:00 Increased gas prices have cost households additional $560

10:30 CISA warns that Iranian hackers are targeting water infrastructure

11:15 Iran could cause unreliability to the American water supply

13:00 Trump used hacking attacks to blame Minnesota Democrats

13:45 Trump didn’t blame the attacker, he blamed the victim

15:30 Jeanine Pirro blamed former Olympian for damage to reflecting pool

16:00 Dept. of Interior had documents proving otherwise, Pirro dropped case

17:00 Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury

18:30 Trump publicly disagreed with Pirro dropping case, says it was vandals

19:30 Trump’s staff is shielding him from the truth

21:00 Trump’s lack of understanding reality is terrible for him

21:30 Trump’s low approval is a midterm disaster in the making

23:00 Stephanie Grisham says 85% of negative info is kept from Trump

24:15 People who bring Trump bad news don’t last very long

25:30 Republicans aren’t campaigning like things are going well

26:00 Ken Paxton puts out an affordability agenda, looks like a Dem proposal

27:15 Trump still saying affordability is scam made up by Democrats

28:15 Trump can’t understand the reality of the situation

28:45 Was Trump briefed on Iran hack… then attacked Minnesota anyway?

30:00 Trump’s first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame

30:45 Trump is demented with polarization disease

31:15 Trump cares more about his narrative than American citizens

32:15 Trump is bragging about his grifting an Americans are tired of it

33:15 Anti-Corruption is a massively effective midterm strategy

33:45 Chuck Schumer rolls out a stinker of an anti-corruption bill

34:45 WSJ publishes airtight piece about Trump’s overt corruption

35:45 There’s no buffer or plausible deniability for Trump in the corruption story

36:45 Trump is basically advertising that government is a pay to play scheme

37:45 There’s a list of presidential promises for favors that have been bought

38:15 Trump has raised $800m in pay for play schemes with little accounting

39:00 There is no law outlawing a president from raising unlimited money

39:30 Trump is now the biggest alligator in the swamp

40:15 Schumer’s bill is a piece of garbage, why many senators didn’t sign on

41:45 Jamie Raskin is performing oversight, Schumer wants agency to do it for him

42:30 The bill wouldn’t even cover the corruption outlined by the WSJ story

44:00 The bill is unconstitutional because it names individuals

45:00 Laws can target behavior, not individuals. It’d be thrown out in court

45:45 The agency Schumer proposed would live in the executive branch

46:15 Agency to stop a corrupt president would be staffed by the president??

47:15 SCOTUS says president can fire the heads of exec branch agencies

48:45 If bill passed, Trump would pick agency head and 7 members of board

49:15 Congress can perform all the oversight the proposed agency would do

50:30 Congress could stop all this corruption if it wanted to

52:00 Schumer’s idea is to hand more power to the executive branch???

54:30 The plan from congress is to write themselves out of oversight?

57:00 Schumer’s bill will never see the light of day

57:45 Michigan & Wisconsin will show where the Democratic party is headed

59:30 Abdul El-Sayed made clear his goal is to change the Democratic party

1:00:15 His campaign is a movement inside a senate race

1:01:00 Francesca Wong in Wisconsin is frontrunner & endorsed by DSA

1:01:45 Establishment hasn’t coordinated well to stop Wong

1:02:15 Movement politicians are usually right about the future, wrong about present

1:03:30 Sometimes the movement comes first, sometimes the coalition does

1:04:00 DSA has become a force, and is now calling for abolishing the senate

1:05:00 Senate democrats pushed back, but didn’t defend the senate

1:05:45 The senate is a feature, not a bug

1:06:30 The senate is a brake on political extremism

1:07:15 The response is to win the argument, not rewrite the rules

1:08:00 Movement nominees are easier to defeat than governing ones

1:13:30 Toddcast Time Machine - The five days that ended Richard Nixon

1:14:00 Nixon resigned 52 years ago, this week

1:14:45 Why is Nixon the only president that paid a price for his corruption?

1:15:45 We tell the story of Watergate backwards and start with resignation

1:17:00 The June arrests weren’t the beginning of Watergate

1:18:45 We don’t know what Nixon’s operation learned before the arrests

1:20:30 We never got full answer on the missing 18 minutes

1:21:15 Supreme Court stayed in session during summer to oversee Watergate

1:21:45 Smoking gun tape goes public six days after the break-in

1:22:30 Nixon needed 34 votes in the senate to survive, only had 16

1:23:15 Impeachment in the house was a foregone conclusion

1:23:45 Senators didn’t demand he resign, just showed Nixon the numbers

1:27:00 How different would history have looked had Nixon survived?

1:27:45 Ask Chuck

1:28:00 Is presidency becoming more powerful in a way that could outlast Trump

1:31:00 Can the U.S. government create a true unbiased media source?

1:34:45 Would mandatory voting create better political participation?

1:39:15 Would Illinois make for a better early primary state?

1:41:00 Why not hold every primary on the same day?

1:43:15 Personal anecdote about AI job displacement and fear

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the Iran war's arrival on American soil: hackers have hit water systems across multiple states in one of the most serious cyberattacks on U.S. water infrastructure in years and investigators probing an Iranian link. Trump's response tells you everything about the presidency in its current state — he didn't blame the attacker, he blamed the victim, using the hack as an occasion to attack Minnesota Democrats. Chuck’s question hangs over the whole segment: was Trump briefed on the Iranian connection and went after Minnesota anyway? Either way, the first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame, which Chuck calls a kind of polarization disease that leaves a president caring more about his narrative than about American citizens drinking the water. It fits a pattern the episode keeps circling: Jeanine Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury blaming a former Olympian for damage to the White House reflecting pool, dropped the case when Interior produced documents proving otherwise, and Trump publicly disagreed with dropping it because he still insists it was vandals. Chuck argues negative information never reaches Trump, and people who bring him bad news don't last long — which is how you end up with a president insisting affordability is a Democratic scam

Then, Chuck highlights a Wall Street Journal piece that lays out Trump's corruption — roughly $800 million raised through what amounts to an advertised pay-to-play scheme. Anti-corruption is a devastating midterm message sitting right there for Democrats to pick up… then Chuck Schumer rolled out a bill that Chuck calls a piece of garbage: it wouldn't even cover the conduct in the WSJ story, it's likely unconstitutional because it names individuals, and — most absurdly — it creates a new anti-corruption agency inside the executive branch, meaning a corrupt president would appoint its director and seven board members and, per the Supreme Court, could fire them at will. Congress can already do every bit of the oversight the agency would perform and Schumer's answer to executive corruption is to hand the executive more power and write Congress out of its own job. He closes on Michigan and Wisconsin as the clearest signals of where the Democratic Party is headed — Abdul El-Sayed running a movement inside a Senate race with the explicit goal of changing the party, DSA-endorsed Francesca Wong leading in Wisconsin while the establishment fails to coordinate against her — and on the DSA's new call to abolish the Senate, which Senate Democrats pushed back on without ever defending the institution. Chuck defends it himself: the Senate is a feature, not a bug, a brake on political extremism, and the right response to losing an argument is to win it rather than rewrite the rules. 

Then, Dr. Brian King — the former director of the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products, who was placed on administrative leave in April 2025 as part of the mass HHS layoffs joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain what happens to public health when the agency charged with protecting it gets deliberately dismantled. King walks through the extraordinary progress America made reducing cigarette smoking over decades, and how quickly that's being unwound: the tobacco industry donated millions to Trump's PAC, executives pressured the White House directly, and the payoff has been regulatory capture and mounting pressure on the FDA to bring flavored products back to market. He's clear-eyed rather than absolutist on the science — combustible products are far and away the most harmful, nicotine itself is highly addictive but isn't what's killing people, though it's genuinely not risk-free for the adolescent brain — and he walks Chuck through the comparison to caffeine, the data on whether vaping serves as a gateway back into smoking, and what's actually known about nicotine pouches, where youth usage isn't high but stubbornly isn't declining either. The industry, meanwhile, is spending roughly a million dollars an hour advertising its products while fighting every government action to reduce smoking.

The conversation turns to what actually works and what's being abandoned. King argues the two most effective interventions available are reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes and banning menthol, credits Congress for getting the Tobacco Control Act right, and stresses that Congress — not the FDA acting alone — has to be the one to regulate tobacco, which is precisely why sidelining the agency is so damaging. He and Chuck get into the questions nobody in Washington wants to answer: why are cigarettes legal at all, how are sugary alcoholic beverages not treated in the same category, and where did the money from the 1998 master settlement actually go. King is pointed that the MAHA movement, for all its rhetoric about chronic disease, has done nothing prominent on tobacco, and that the FDA is now actively undermining both the science and the law it was built to enforce. His closing warning is the bleakest note of the episode: America is in a public health apocalypse that will take decades to repair, it will be enormously hard to recruit a next generation into the field, the entire world will be harmed by the collapse of American public health infrastructure — and the impacts are only just beginning to show up.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Watergate and Richard Nixon’s resignation, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 The Iran war has become a global conflict

06:45 Once again Trump issues threats, then walks them back

08:15 War is one of biggest strategic mistakes in decades

09:00 Increased gas prices have cost households additional $560

10:30 CISA warns that Iranian hackers are targeting water infrastructure

11:15 Iran could cause unreliability to the American water supply

13:00 Trump used hacking attacks to blame Minnesota Democrats

13:45 Trump didn’t blame the attacker, he blamed the victim

15:30 Jeanine Pirro blamed former Olympian for damage to reflecting pool

16:00 Dept. of Interior had documents proving otherwise, Pirro dropped case

17:00 Pirro presented false evidence to a grand jury

18:30 Trump publicly disagreed with Pirro dropping case, says it was vandals

19:30 Trump’s staff is shielding him from the truth

21:00 Trump’s lack of understanding reality is terrible for him

21:30 Trump’s low approval is a midterm disaster in the making

23:00 Stephanie Grisham says 85% of negative info is kept from Trump

24:15 People who bring Trump bad news don’t last very long

25:30 Republicans aren’t campaigning like things are going well

26:00 Ken Paxton puts out an affordability agenda, looks like a Dem proposal

27:15 Trump still saying affordability is scam made up by Democrats

28:15 Trump can’t understand the reality of the situation

28:45 Was Trump briefed on Iran hack… then attacked Minnesota anyway?

30:00 Trump’s first instinct was to find a Democrat to blame

30:45 Trump is demented with polarization disease

31:15 Trump cares more about his narrative than American citizens

32:15 Trump is bragging about his grifting an Americans are tired of it

33:15 Anti-Corruption is a massively effective midterm strategy

33:45 Chuck Schumer rolls out a stinker of an anti-corruption bill

34:45 WSJ publishes airtight piece about Trump’s overt corruption

35:45 There’s no buffer or plausible deniability for Trump in the corruption story

36:45 Trump is basically advertising that government is a pay to play scheme

37:45 There’s a list of presidential promises for favors that have been bought

38:15 Trump has raised $800m in pay for play schemes with little accounting

39:00 There is no law outlawing a president from raising unlimited money

39:30 Trump is now the biggest alligator in the swamp

40:15 Schumer’s bill is a piece of garbage, why many senators didn’t sign on

41:45 Jamie Raskin is performing oversight, Schumer wants agency to do it for him

42:30 The bill wouldn’t even cover the corruption outlined by the WSJ story

44:00 The bill is unconstitutional because it names individuals

45:00 Laws can target behavior, not individuals. It’d be thrown out in court

45:45 The agency Schumer proposed would live in the executive branch

46:15 Agency to stop a corrupt president would be staffed by the president??

47:15 SCOTUS says president can fire the heads of exec branch agencies

48:45 If bill passed, Trump would pick agency head and 7 members of board

49:15 Congress can perform all the oversight the proposed agency would do

50:30 Congress could stop all this corruption if it wanted to

52:00 Schumer’s idea is to hand more power to the executive branch???

54:30 The plan from congress is to write themselves out of oversight?

57:00 Schumer’s bill will never see the light of day

57:45 Michigan & Wisconsin will show where the Democratic party is headed

59:30 Abdul El-Sayed made clear his goal is to change the Democratic party

1:00:15 His campaign is a movement inside a senate race

1:01:00 Francesca Wong in Wisconsin is frontrunner & endorsed by DSA

1:01:45 Establishment hasn’t coordinated well to stop Wong

1:02:15 Movement politicians are usually right about the future, wrong about present

1:03:30 Sometimes the movement comes first, sometimes the coalition does

1:04:00 DSA has become a force, and is now calling for abolishing the senate

1:05:00 Senate democrats pushed back, but didn’t defend the senate

1:05:45 The senate is a feature, not a bug

1:06:30 The senate is a brake on political extremism

1:07:15 The response is to win the argument, not rewrite the rules

1:08:00 Movement nominees are easier to defeat than governing ones

1:14:15 Brian King (FDA center on tobacco) joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:18:00 We made incredible progress reducing cigarette smoking

1:18:30 Tobacco companies donated and received regulatory capture

1:19:15 Flavored vapes appeal more to kids & are problematic

1:20:45 Trump was pressured by executives from tobacco industry

1:21:30 There were multimillion dollar donations to Trump’s PAC

1:23:00 What’s the actual health data on nicotine outside of smoking?

1:23:30 Combustible products are the most harmful

1:24:00 Nicotine is highly addictive but isn’t causing the harm and deaths

1:24:45 Nicotine can harm the adolescent brain, it’s not risk free

1:25:30 Comparing nicotine vs. caffeine

1:27:15 Vaping typically isn’t a gateway back into smoking

1:28:30 There’s been pressure on FDA to bring back flavored products

1:31:00 $1M dollars an hour is being spent advertising tobacco products

1:31:45 Industry has been fighting all government action to reduce smoking

1:33:15 The FDA has been sidelined in the fight against smoking

1:33:45 Why are cigarettes even legal at all?

1:35:15 Tobacco farmers have transitioned to other crops in other countries

1:37:15 Reducing nicotine levels is highly effective

1:37:45 Outlawing menthol is also highly effective

1:39:30 Congress got it right with the Tobacco Control Act

1:41:15 How are sugary alcoholic beverages not in the same category?

1:42:15 What is age gating technology and how does it work?

1:44:15 Do we have good data on usage for people under 18?

1:46:45 Nicotine pouch usage isn’t high amongst kids, but isn’t going down

1:47:15 What is the data about health impacts from pouches?

1:48:45 Nicotine has a strong stimulant effect, helps with attention

1:49:30 Settlement in ‘98 required tobacco companies to pay costs in perpetuity

1:50:00 States have diverted those funds to other purposes

1:51:00 Did the tobacco industry actually take a hit from the settlement?

1:51:45 If still at FDA, what changes would you implement?

1:52:15 FDA has been undermining the science and the law

1:53:15 Effectiveness of banning indoor smoking

1:54:30 Should preventing underage addictions be the north star?

1:56:45 Congress has to regulate tobacco, FDA can’t do it on its own

1:57:30 MAHA hasn’t done anything prominent on tobacco

1:59:45 Is there litigation that could be pursued here?

2:01:00 We’re in a public health apocalypse, will take decades to repair

2:01:45 It will be hard to recruit people into public health

2:03:30 The entire world will be harmed by collapse of American public health

2:05:15 The impacts are just beginning to show up, will get worse

2:07:00 Toddcast Time Machine - The five days that ended Richard Nixon

2:07:30 Nixon resigned 52 years ago, this week

2:08:15 Why is Nixon the only president that paid a price for his corruption?

2:09:15 We tell the story of Watergate backwards and start with resignation

2:10:30 The June arrests weren’t the beginning of Watergate

2:12:15 We don’t know what Nixon’s operation learned before the arrests

2:14:00 We never got full answer on the missing 18 minutes

2:14:45 Supreme Court stayed in session during summer to oversee Watergate

2:15:15 Smoking gun tape goes public six days after the break-in

2:16:00 Nixon needed 34 votes in the senate to survive, only had 16

2:16:45 Impeachment in the house was a foregone conclusion

2:17:15 Senators didn’t demand he resign, just showed Nixon the numbers

2:20:30 How different would history have looked had Nixon survived?

2:21:15 Ask Chuck

2:21:30 Is presidency becoming more powerful in a way that could outlast Trump

2:24:30 Can the U.S. government create a true unbiased media source?

2:28:15 Would mandatory voting create better political participation?

2:32:45 Would Illinois make for a better early primary state?

2:34:30 Why not hold every primary on the same day?

2:36:45 Personal anecdote about AI job displacement and fear

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Brian King — the former director of the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products, who was placed on administrative leave in April 2025 as part of the mass HHS layoffs joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain what happens to public health when the agency charged with protecting it gets deliberately dismantled. King walks through the extraordinary progress America made reducing cigarette smoking over decades, and how quickly that's being unwound: the tobacco industry donated millions to Trump's PAC, executives pressured the White House directly, and the payoff has been regulatory capture and mounting pressure on the FDA to bring flavored products back to market. He's clear-eyed rather than absolutist on the science — combustible products are far and away the most harmful, nicotine itself is highly addictive but isn't what's killing people, though it's genuinely not risk-free for the adolescent brain — and he walks Chuck through the comparison to caffeine, the data on whether vaping serves as a gateway back into smoking, and what's actually known about nicotine pouches, where youth usage isn't high but stubbornly isn't declining either. The industry, meanwhile, is spending roughly a million dollars an hour advertising its products while fighting every government action to reduce smoking.

The conversation turns to what actually works and what's being abandoned. King argues the two most effective interventions available are reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes and banning menthol, credits Congress for getting the Tobacco Control Act right, and stresses that Congress — not the FDA acting alone — has to be the one to regulate tobacco, which is precisely why sidelining the agency is so damaging. He and Chuck get into the questions nobody in Washington wants to answer: why are cigarettes legal at all, how are sugary alcoholic beverages not treated in the same category, and where did the money from the 1998 master settlement actually go. King is pointed that the MAHA movement, for all its rhetoric about chronic disease, has done nothing prominent on tobacco, and that the FDA is now actively undermining both the science and the law it was built to enforce. His closing warning is the bleakest note of the episode: America is in a public health apocalypse that will take decades to repair, it will be enormously hard to recruit a next generation into the field, the entire world will be harmed by the collapse of American public health infrastructure — and the impacts are only just beginning to show up.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Brian King (FDA center on tobacco) joins the Chuck ToddCast

03:45 We made incredible progress reducing cigarette smoking

04:15 Tobacco companies donated and received regulatory capture

05:00 Flavored vapes appeal more to kids & are problematic

06:30 Trump was pressured by executives from tobacco industry

07:15 There were multimillion dollar donations to Trump’s PAC

08:45 What’s the actual health data on nicotine outside of smoking?

09:15 Combustible products are the most harmful

09:45 Nicotine is highly addictive but isn’t causing the harm and deaths

10:30 Nicotine can harm the adolescent brain, it’s not risk free

11:15 Comparing nicotine vs. caffeine

13:00 Vaping typically isn’t a gateway back into smoking

14:15 There’s been pressure on FDA to bring back flavored products

16:45 $1M dollars an hour is being spent advertising tobacco products 

17:30 Industry has been fighting all government action to reduce smoking

19:00 The FDA has been sidelined in the fight against smoking

19:30 Why are cigarettes even legal at all?

21:00 Tobacco farmers have transitioned to other crops in other countries

23:00 Reducing nicotine levels is highly effective 

23:30 Outlawing menthol is also highly effective

25:15 Congress got it right with the Tobacco Control Act

27:00 How are sugary alcoholic beverages not in the same category?

28:00 What is age gating technology and how does it work?

30:00 Do we have good data on usage for people under 18?

32:30 Nicotine pouch usage isn’t high amongst kids, but isn’t going down

33:00 What is the data about health impacts from pouches?

34:30 Nicotine has a strong stimulant effect, helps with attention

35:15 Settlement in ‘98 required tobacco companies to pay costs in perpetuity

35:45 States have diverted those funds to other purposes

36:45 Did the tobacco industry actually take a hit from the settlement?

37:30 If still at FDA, what changes would you implement?

38:00 FDA has been undermining the science and the law

39:00 Effectiveness of banning indoor smoking

40:15 Should preventing underage addictions be the north star?

42:30 Congress has to regulate tobacco, FDA can’t do it on its own

43:15 MAHA hasn’t done anything prominent on tobacco

45:30 Is there litigation that could be pursued here?

46:45 We’re in a public health apocalypse, will take decades to repair

47:30 It will be hard to recruit people into public health

49:15 The entire world will be harmed by collapse of American public health

51:00 The impacts are just beginning to show up, will get worse

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande sit down with longtime ESPN broadcasters Patrick McEnroe and Chris McKendry to go behind the scenes of Wimbledon. From Patrick's firsthand experience competing at the Championships to Chris's years anchoring ESPN's coverage, they share stories and insights you won't hear during the broadcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues Republicans and the White House are frantically trying to manufacture headlines about the past precisely because the actual news of the present is terrible for the GOP, and because the very issues that got Trump elected are the ones he's now ignoring. Democrats are winning heading into the midterms, TChuck says; the only real question is by how much, which is exactly why Republicans are so desperate to feed their base culture-war red meat as a distraction. But the story Chuck argues is being dangerously underplayed is the Iran war, which is no longer a regional conflict at all: close to thirty countries have been directly involved, multiple nations have been hit, and the Iran and Ukraine wars have effectively merged through shared supply chains — Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukraine, improved and manufactured them, and is now shipping them back to Iran, while Ukrainian air defense teams have been redeployed to the Middle East and the American stockpile of interceptor missiles has been so massively depleted that commanders are rationing them. He calls the war the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades, while rising oil prices help both Iran and Russia.. It's not World War III, he cautions, but it's genuinely hard to see how it ends, and Congress should be singularly focused on it and simply isn't. He then pivots to what he calls a politics of AI that hasn't been invented yet, where the public is way ahead of the politicians: 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months and like it, but the vast majority don't trust big tech or the AI companies, and the fierce backlash against data centers is really the manifestation of a deeper anger ever since tech companies stopped trying to improve lives and started maximizing engagement. The public isn't rejecting AI, he argues, it's rejecting the technologists, and Trump has planted himself firmly on the side of the tech companies over the public. He closes by lamenting that political energy is being spent on Fauci rather than pandemic preparedness — before quick hits on Todd Achilles getting a one-on-one race in Idaho, Seth Bodnar leading in Montana if the Democrat can be coaxed into dropping out, and the question hanging over Michigan: if Abdul El-Sayed loses, will it have been because of Mamdani's Israel speech? 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines

03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election

04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP

04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring

05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much

07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 

07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base

08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed

09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war

10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war

11:30 This is not a regional war

12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action

13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks

15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains

15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global

16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine

16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran

17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east

18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted

19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles

20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades

21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate

21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia

22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts

23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work

24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries

24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends

25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t

27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in

28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians

29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it

29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies

31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public

31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech

32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it

35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach

37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI

37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech

38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement

40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech

41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support

42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists

44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public

45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics

48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness

48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID

49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were

50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day

51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made

52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals

52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are

53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul

54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic

55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci

55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho

56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out

57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech?

1:01:30 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate

1:02:00 #5 Todd Achilles

1:04:30 #4 Dan Osborne

1:06:45 #3 Seth Bodnar

1:08:00 #2 Lisa Murkowski

1:09:00 #1 John Fetterman

1:11:45 Ask Chuck

1:12:45 Correction for answer on the last pod

1:15:00 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump?

1:22:15 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it?

1:25:30 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying?

1:29:00 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”?

1:34:15 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues Republicans and the White House are frantically trying to manufacture headlines about the past precisely because the actual news of the present is terrible for the GOP, and because the very issues that got Trump elected are the ones he's now ignoring. Democrats are winning heading into the midterms, TChuck says; the only real question is by how much, which is exactly why Republicans are so desperate to feed their base culture-war red meat as a distraction. But the story Chuck argues is being dangerously underplayed is the Iran war, which is no longer a regional conflict at all: close to thirty countries have been directly involved, multiple nations have been hit, and the Iran and Ukraine wars have effectively merged through shared supply chains — Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukraine, improved and manufactured them, and is now shipping them back to Iran, while Ukrainian air defense teams have been redeployed to the Middle East and the American stockpile of interceptor missiles has been so massively depleted that commanders are rationing them. He calls the war the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades, while rising oil prices help both Iran and Russia.. It's not World War III, he cautions, but it's genuinely hard to see how it ends, and Congress should be singularly focused on it and simply isn't. He then pivots to what he calls a politics of AI that hasn't been invented yet, where the public is way ahead of the politicians: 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months and like it, but the vast majority don't trust big tech or the AI companies, and the fierce backlash against data centers is really the manifestation of a deeper anger ever since tech companies stopped trying to improve lives and started maximizing engagement. The public isn't rejecting AI, he argues, it's rejecting the technologists, and Trump has planted himself firmly on the side of the tech companies over the public. He closes by lamenting that political energy is being spent on Fauci rather than pandemic preparedness — before quick hits on Todd Achilles getting a one-on-one race in Idaho, Seth Bodnar leading in Montana if the Democrat can be coaxed into dropping out, and the question hanging over Michigan: if Abdul El-Sayed loses, will it have been because of Mamdani's Israel speech? 

Then, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear — the popular two-term Democrat in a deep-red state and a name increasingly floated for 2028 — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that opens with Kentucky's famous Fancy Farm Picnic and the increasingly countercultural idea that political disagreement shouldn't make people enemies. Beshear turns pointed on Mitch McConnell, who he says has been absent for six weeks without speaking to him, arguing that McConnell has a fundamental duty to level with the people of Kentucky about his condition.. Beshear notes the governor has no authority to declare a vacancy, calls on John Thune to help put the concerns to rest, and observes pointedly that if the situation were reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical about it — and that the right should arguably be angrier, since it's one fewer vote for the GOP agenda. Beshear reflects at length and with real emotion on the COVID years, which he calls the war of our time with a higher casualty rate than most Americans appreciate, credits Kentucky's expanded Medicaid with keeping the state from running out of hospital beds, and warning that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky alone. He's sharply critical of Rand Paul for dragging Fauci into character-assassination hearings while staying conspicuously silent on McConnell, and reminds listeners it was Trump who ordered governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci.

The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines

03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election

04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP

04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring

05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much

07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 

07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base

08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed

09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war

10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war

11:30 This is not a regional war

12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action

13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks

15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains

15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global

16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine

16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran

17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east

18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted

19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles

20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades

21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate

21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia

22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts

23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work

24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries

24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends

25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t

27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in

28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians

29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it

29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies

31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public

31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech

32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it

35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach

37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI

37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech

38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement

40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech

41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support

42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists

44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public

45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics

48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness

48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID

49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were

50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day

51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made

52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals

52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are

53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul

54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic

55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci

55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho

56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out

57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech?

1:04:15 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:05:30 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics

1:06:45 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together

1:07:15 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy”

1:07:45 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game

1:09:30 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week

1:10:00 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky

1:10:45 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy

1:11:15 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest

1:13:00 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents

1:13:30 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical

1:14:00 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad

1:15:00 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell

1:16:30 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump

1:17:15 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public

1:18:00 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it

1:18:45 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed

1:19:15 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence

1:20:00 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell

1:20:45 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination

1:22:00 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci

1:22:45 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID

1:23:15 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci

1:23:45 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history

1:25:30 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives

1:26:00 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly

1:27:00 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan

1:27:45 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate

1:28:15 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations

1:29:45 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid

1:30:15 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky

1:31:15 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic”

1:32:00 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker

1:32:30 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated

1:33:00 How big should the Democratic tent be?

1:34:00 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on

1:34:30 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment?

1:35:15 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again

1:35:45 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering

1:36:30 The president should be directly elected

1:37:00 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong

1:37:45 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage

1:39:15 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders?

1:40:00 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable

1:40:30 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder

1:41:15 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia

1:41:45 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA

1:42:15 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28

1:44:30 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard

1:45:45 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger

1:46:15 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan

1:47:00 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race

1:47:30 Correlation between governor and senate races

1:50:15 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida?

1:50:45 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win

1:52:00 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28

1:52:45 Important to declare presidential candidacy early?

1:53:30 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere

1:54:30 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state?

1:55:15 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable?

1:56:00 Will Doug Jones get DGA help?

1:57:30 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI

1:58:15 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers

1:58:45 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes

2:01:15 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going

2:02:30 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky?

2:04:15 Favorite NBA team

2:05:45 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Andy Beshear

2:07:00 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate

2:07:30 #5 Todd Achilles

2:10:00 #4 Dan Osborne

2:12:15 #3 Seth Bodnar

2:13:30 #2 Lisa Murkowski

2:14:30 #1 John Fetterman

2:17:15 Ask Chuck

2:18:15 Correction for answer on the last pod

2:20:30 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump?

2:27:45 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it?

2:31:00 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying?

2:34:30 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”?

2:39:45 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear — the popular two-term Democrat in a deep-red state and a name increasingly floated for 2028 — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that opens with Kentucky's famous Fancy Farm Picnic and the increasingly countercultural idea that political disagreement shouldn't make people enemies. Beshear turns pointed on Mitch McConnell, who he says has been absent for six weeks without speaking to him, arguing that McConnell has a fundamental duty to level with the people of Kentucky about his condition.. Beshear notes the governor has no authority to declare a vacancy, calls on John Thune to help put the concerns to rest, and observes pointedly that if the situation were reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical about it — and that the right should arguably be angrier, since it's one fewer vote for the GOP agenda. Beshear reflects at length and with real emotion on the COVID years, which he calls the war of our time with a higher casualty rate than most Americans appreciate, credits Kentucky's expanded Medicaid with keeping the state from running out of hospital beds, and warning that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky alone. He's sharply critical of Rand Paul for dragging Fauci into character-assassination hearings while staying conspicuously silent on McConnell, and reminds listeners it was Trump who ordered governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci.

The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics

02:30 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together

03:00 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy”

03:30 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game

05:15 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week

05:45 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky

06:30 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy

07:00 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest

08:45 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents

09:15 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical

09:45 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad

10:45 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell

12:15 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump

13:00 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public

13:45 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it

14:30 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed

15:00 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence

15:45 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell

16:30 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination

17:45 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci

18:30 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID

19:00 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci

19:30 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history

21:15 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives

21:45 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly

22:45 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan

23:30 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate

24:00 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations

25:30 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid

26:00 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky

27:00 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic”

27:45 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker

28:15 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated

28:45 How big should the Democratic tent be?

29:45 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on

30:15 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment?

31:00 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again

31:30 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering

32:15 The president should be directly elected

32:45 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong

33:30 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage

35:00 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders?

35:45 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable

36:15 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder

37:00 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia

37:30 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA

38:00 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28

40:15 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard

41:30 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger

42:00 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan

42:45 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race

43:15 Correlation between governor and senate races

46:00 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida?

46:30 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win

47:45 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28

48:30 Important to declare presidential candidacy early?

49:15 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere

50:15 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state?

51:00 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable?

51:45 Will Doug Jones get DGA help?

53:15 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI 

54:00 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers

54:30 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes

57:00 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going

58:15 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky?

1:00:00 Favorite NBA team

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza dig into the biggest structural story of the 2028 race: the DNC's proposed new Democratic nominating calendar, which would open in South Carolina and run through Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. The guys make the case that a calendar starting in the least progressive early state and ending in another one looks engineered to stop a Bernie- or AOC-style insurgent — then debate who it actually helps. Chris sees a raised bar and a no-backup-plan trap for Kamala Harris; Chuck argues the map is a dream scenario for Wes Moore, with three heavily African-American states and two big military populations, while making the counterintuitive case that a splintered field could still let a progressive win South Carolina on a McCain-in-2008-style plurality. Along the way they weigh Buttigieg's veterans play, Mark Kelly's underrated prospects, Pritzker's self-funding edge, and why they'd have picked Arizona over Nevada.

From there they turn to an idea from Chuck's wife for reinventing the White House Correspondents' Dinner — hand the South Lawn to reporters and their families once a year, and keep the president and the TV cameras out of it — before tackling the deepening mystery around Mitch McConnell's health and monthslong public silence, and why the conspiracy theories collapse the moment you ask what the upside would be. Then it's on to the stakes of next week's Michigan Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, which both sides are treating as the first existential fight over the Democratic Party's identity, and how Zohran Mamdani may have reshaped it. They close, as always, with the Nats: the looming trade deadline, why Foster Griffin is expendable but CJ Abrams isn't, and the case for building a brand around the team's young Black stars.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 The DNC's proposed 2028 Democratic nominating calendar

01:00 The six-state lineup 

01:42 Why South Carolina and Virginia matter most

02:56 Going first means six months of attention, not a week

03:52 Is South Carolina good for Kamala Harris?

04:54 Win the Black vote, win South Carolina

06:32 The Black vote isn't a monolith 

07:51 The calendar is a dream scenario built for Wes Moore

08:34 Is Jon Ossoff the real winner? The neighbor-state theory

10:45 A map that looks designed to stop a Bernie or AOC insurgency

12:24 The progressive math — how 15% could be enough

13:04 A four-state path for the left: fourth, first, second, first

14:41 South Carolina as a race-ender i

15:23 The McCain lesson: 42% as a loss in 2000, 33% as a win in 2008

17:43 Southern Super Tuesday was built to stop liberals 

20:08 Use the primary calendar to build the party

21:52 South Carolina's growth & the rural Black voters Democrats ignore

23:00 Why start where you can't win in November?

25:26 Why it's actually a good map for Pete Buttigieg

27:53 Why the expensive states favor self-funder JB Pritzker

30:21 Michigan gets its own week — just as the Israel issue splits the party

31:24 Why Nevada was picked for the interest groups

32:10 White House Correspondents' Dinner and why it felt so off

35:13 The pitch: hand over the South Lawn to the press corps 

36:18 Keep the cameras and the president out

38:16 Trump will always make it about himself 

40:13 The Mitch McConnell timeline

41:20 A proof-of-life photo — but not a proof-of-speech one

43:03 McConnell has always been intensely private 

45:23 The most important Democratic primary in the country

45:49 Why Abdul El-Sayed is all but running for president

46:56 Mamdani's "arrest Netanyahu" speech reshaped the movement

48:24 Gary Peters, Whitmer & the raised stakes

50:00 The morning-after narratives already written for either outcome

53:36 El-Sayed's real problem: little traction in the Black community

54:00 To the Nats: the trade deadline is the biggest day 

54:52 Trade Foster Griffin — but don't you dare trade CJ Abrams

57:03 The case for building a DC brand around Abrams & James Wood

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a masterclass on the single most underappreciated force in presidential politics: the primary calendar, which he argues reveals exactly what kind of nominee a party actually wants long before a single vote is cast. He explains that the Democratic decision to put South Carolina first is by design a test of Black support and viability in the South — and one that's deliberately engineered to hurt progressives, who have consistently gotten thumped in South Carolina primaries. He believes that Democrats have badly underinvested in South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning a little TLC could plausibly turn South Carolina into a genuine swing state. The calendar's practical effect, he argues, is that it sets up well for Wes Moore (if he runs) and is nearly as favorable for Pete Buttigieg, while raising the stakes for Kamala Harris to the point that if she doesn't win South Carolina, she's essentially finished. He is sharp on the flaws of the rest of the early window — Nevada isn't the test Democrats claim because the culinary union shapes everything and Arizona would better measure the Latino vote, Michigan is theoretically ideal but is getting torn apart over Israel in ways that could hurt Democrats in a general, and Virginia (now the last stop before Super Tuesday) reliably serves as a bulwark for moderates because it's a center-left rather than hard-left blue state — and he lays out what the ideal calendar would look like for progressives and for MAGA respectively. He's blunt that Ken Martin's leadership of the DNC has been a major problem, questioning whether Democrats really want him refereeing the nomination fight when the party's money troubles are a reflection on Martin himself. He then turns to Trump backing down on Iran yet again — halting strikes less than 12 hours after issuing fresh threats — calling the entire Iran adventure easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century, especially now that an administration once committed to non-proliferation appears to be helping the Saudis with nuclear technology. He notes Democrats nominated Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner, making the Maine Senate seat winnable again even as Trump has made the races in both Maine and Michigan harder, and closes with a run of telling contrasts: the White House openly bragging that it added tariffs to help big tech, data centers emerging as the top issue for voters in many states, Trump calling LeBron James a racist from the Oval Office while Obama quietly reached out to offer Caitlin Clark advice and comfort — a perfect encapsulation, He argues, of one leader who wants to divide and another trying to turn the temperature down.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants

03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time

04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important

05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina

05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades

07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else

07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south

08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives

09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire

10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi

13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps

14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state

15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable

17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries

18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives

19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate

22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd

24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out

24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs

26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID

26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first

28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is

29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada

30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results

31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better

32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel

33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election

34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday

34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates

36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state

37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore

37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg

39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives

41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like

44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign

45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters

47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar

49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem

50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight?

50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC

51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party

52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again

53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes

54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran

55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century

56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis?

58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no?

59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this

59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner

1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats

1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder

1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room

1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech

1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states

1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference

1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort

1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down

1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

1:16:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968

1:16:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment

1:17:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification

1:17:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified

1:18:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open

1:19:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time

1:19:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time

1:20:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war

1:21:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things

1:21:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution

1:22:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship

1:23:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling

1:24:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute

1:26:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American

1:27:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise

1:28:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different 

1:29:00 Ask Chuck

1:29:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith?

1:32:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries?

1:37:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next?

1:41:00 Recommendations for political books?

1:46:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a masterclass on the single most underappreciated force in presidential politics: the primary calendar, which he argues reveals exactly what kind of nominee a party actually wants long before a single vote is cast. He explains that the Democratic decision to put South Carolina first is by design a test of Black support and viability in the South — and one that's deliberately engineered to hurt progressives, who have consistently gotten thumped in South Carolina primaries. He believes that Democrats have badly underinvested in South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning a little TLC could plausibly turn South Carolina into a genuine swing state. The calendar's practical effect, he argues, is that it sets up well for Wes Moore (if he runs) and is nearly as favorable for Pete Buttigieg, while raising the stakes for Kamala Harris to the point that if she doesn't win South Carolina, she's essentially finished. He is sharp on the flaws of the rest of the early window — Nevada isn't the test Democrats claim because the culinary union shapes everything and Arizona would better measure the Latino vote, Michigan is theoretically ideal but is getting torn apart over Israel in ways that could hurt Democrats in a general, and Virginia (now the last stop before Super Tuesday) reliably serves as a bulwark for moderates because it's a center-left rather than hard-left blue state — and he lays out what the ideal calendar would look like for progressives and for MAGA respectively. He's blunt that Ken Martin's leadership of the DNC has been a major problem, questioning whether Democrats really want him refereeing the nomination fight when the party's money troubles are a reflection on Martin himself. He then turns to Trump backing down on Iran yet again — halting strikes less than 12 hours after issuing fresh threats — calling the entire Iran adventure easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century, especially now that an administration once committed to non-proliferation appears to be helping the Saudis with nuclear technology. He notes Democrats nominated Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner, making the Maine Senate seat winnable again even as Trump has made the races in both Maine and Michigan harder, and closes with a run of telling contrasts: the White House openly bragging that it added tariffs to help big tech, data centers emerging as the top issue for voters in many states, Trump calling LeBron James a racist from the Oval Office while Obama quietly reached out to offer Caitlin Clark advice and comfort — a perfect encapsulation, He argues, of one leader who wants to divide and another trying to turn the temperature down.

Then, sports business reporter John Ourand — who shares an origin story with Chuck Todd at Sports Business Daily — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a deep dive into the money reshaping professional and college sports. Ourand walks through the sale of the Seattle Seahawks as a signal that the era of family-owned NFL franchises is ending, explaining how team valuations have roughly doubled in just three years thanks to new tax advantages and the simple fact that NFL ownership has become the ultimate status club for the ultra-wealthy. He and Chuck dig into whether these eye-popping valuations constitute a bubble — the NFL alone signed $110 billion in media deals over two years — and whether the sports media "middle class" could be facing a real reckoning even as streamers thrive with smaller game packages. Ourand offers a fascinating look at how leagues are navigating their relationship with the networks and production companies that broadcast them (the NFL is deliberately careful not to hurt the legacy networks it depends on), and defends the enduring value of investigative sports journalism, pointing to Pablo Torre's Clippers reporting as a reminder that nobody, including executives at ESPN, wants to be remembered as the person who killed real journalism at the network.

The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants

03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time

04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important

05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina

05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades

07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else

07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south

08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives

09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire

10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi

13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps

14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state

15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable

17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries

18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives

19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate

22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd

24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out

24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs

26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID

26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first

28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is

29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada

30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results

31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better

32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel

33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election

34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday

34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates

36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state

37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore

37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg

39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives

41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like

44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign

45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters

47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar

49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem

50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight?

50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC

51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party

52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again

53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes

54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran

55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century

56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis?

58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no?

59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this

59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner

1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats

1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder

1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room

1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech

1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states

1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference

1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort

1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down

1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

1:17:45 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:19:45 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily

1:22:15 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks?

1:23:00 We are ending the era of the family owned teams

1:24:00 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years?

1:25:00 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in

1:25:45 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises

1:28:00 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst?

1:29:45 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years

1:30:15 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon

1:30:45 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights

1:33:15 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games

1:33:45 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up

1:35:30 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks

1:37:30 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house?

1:39:45 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies

1:42:15 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists

1:45:15 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN

1:46:00 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is

1:47:00 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream

1:49:15 How are leagues/players interacting with politics?

1:50:30 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray

1:52:30 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings

1:53:00 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings

1:55:15 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars

1:56:00 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark 

1:58:15 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity

2:00:30 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates 

2:01:15 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA?

2:04:30 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports?

2:07:45 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones

2:10:15 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue?

2:15:30 Where you can find John’s work

2:17:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968

2:17:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment

2:18:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification

2:18:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified

2:19:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open

2:20:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time

2:20:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time

2:21:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war

2:22:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things

2:22:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution

2:23:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship

2:24:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling

2:25:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute

2:27:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American

2:28:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise

2:29:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different 

2:30:00 Ask Chuck

2:30:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith?

2:33:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries?

2:38:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next?

2:42:00 Recommendations for political books?

2:47:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sports business reporter John Ourand — who shares an origin story with Chuck Todd at Sports Business Daily — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a deep dive into the money reshaping professional and college sports. Ourand walks through the sale of the Seattle Seahawks as a signal that the era of family-owned NFL franchises is ending, explaining how team valuations have roughly doubled in just three years thanks to new tax advantages and the simple fact that NFL ownership has become the ultimate status club for the ultra-wealthy. He and Chuck dig into whether these eye-popping valuations constitute a bubble — the NFL alone signed $110 billion in media deals over two years — and whether the sports media "middle class" could be facing a real reckoning even as streamers thrive with smaller game packages. Ourand offers a fascinating look at how leagues are navigating their relationship with the networks and production companies that broadcast them (the NFL is deliberately careful not to hurt the legacy networks it depends on), and defends the enduring value of investigative sports journalism, pointing to Pablo Torre's Clippers reporting as a reminder that nobody, including executives at ESPN, wants to be remembered as the person who killed real journalism at the network.

The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily

04:30 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks?

05:15 We are ending the era of the family owned teams

06:15 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years?

07:15 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in

08:00 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises

10:15 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst?

12:00 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years

12:30 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon

13:00 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights

15:30 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games

16:00 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up

17:45 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks

19:45 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house?

22:00 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies

24:30 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists

27:30 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN

28:15 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is

29:15 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream

31:30 How are leagues/players interacting with politics?

32:45 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray

34:45 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings

35:15 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings

37:30 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars

38:15 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark 

40:30 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity

42:45 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates 

43:30 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA?

46:45 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports?

50:00 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones

52:30 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue?

57:45 Where you can find John’s work

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. 

Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections

06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months

07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day

08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day

09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans

10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House

11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans

12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats

14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map

14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate

16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate

17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle

18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago

18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year

19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas

21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats

21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?

22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat

24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against

26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable

27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent

29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not

30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war

31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval

32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party

34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance

35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014

36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans

37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles

37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval

38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers

39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms

40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it

42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports

43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten

44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does

46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives

46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools

47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement

48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this

49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down

50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges

51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed

53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation

53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it

54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players

55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill

57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere

58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut

59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025

59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak

1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK

1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price

1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation

1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal

1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi

1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy

1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC

1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far

1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?

1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder

1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries

1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club

1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate

1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries

01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties

01:14:00 #5 Oregon

01:15:00 #4 Ohio

01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin

01:18:15 #2 Kansas

01:19:00 #1 Iowa

01:20:00 Ask Chuck

01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair

01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?

01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?

01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?

01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. 

Then, Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook, argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court.

The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. 

Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections

06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months

07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day

08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day

09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans

10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House

11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans

12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats

14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map

14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate

16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate

17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle

18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago

18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year

19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas

21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats

21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?

22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat

24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against

26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable

27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent

29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not

30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war

31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval

32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party

34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance

35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014

36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans

37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles

37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval

38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers

39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms

40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it

42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports

43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten

44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does

46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives

46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools

47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement

48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this

49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down

50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges

51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed

53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation

53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it

54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players

55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill

57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere

58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut

59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025

59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak

1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK

1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price

1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation

1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal

1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi

1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy

1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC

1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far

1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?

1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder

1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries

1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club

1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate

1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries

01:14:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems

01:16:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration

01:17:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed

01:19:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late

01:20:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long

01:20:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past

01:21:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him

01:22:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation

01:23:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory

01:25:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition

01:27:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism

01:29:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism

01:30:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden

01:31:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse

01:32:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority

01:35:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people

01:36:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?

01:36:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues

01:38:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power

01:39:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy

01:41:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them

01:41:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America

01:43:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax

01:44:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year

01:44:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional

01:45:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea

01:47:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility

01:49:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better

01:51:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump

01:52:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left

01:53:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states

01:54:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable

01:56:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue

01:57:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states

01:59:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same

02:00:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24

02:01:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats

02:03:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?

02:03:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living

02:04:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated

02:05:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much

02:06:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable

02:09:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose

02:10:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?

02:11:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine

02:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties

02:14:00 #5 Oregon

02:15:00 #4 Ohio

02:16:15 #3 Wisconsin

02:18:15 #2 Kansas

02:19:00 #1 Iowa

02:20:00 Ask Chuck

02:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair

02:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?

02:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?

02:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?

02:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook (the ACA and Biden's Medicare drug price negotiations both succeeded that way, while Medicare for All keeps stalling because people are fundamentally change-averse), argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court.

The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems

02:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration

03:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed

05:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late

06:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long

06:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past

07:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him

08:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation

09:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory

11:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition

13:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism

15:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism

16:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden

17:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse

18:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority 

21:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people

22:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?

22:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues

24:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power

25:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy

27:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them

27:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America

29:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax

30:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year

30:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional

31:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea

33:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility

35:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better

37:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump

38:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left

39:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states

40:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable

42:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue

43:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states

45:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same

46:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24

47:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats

49:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?

49:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living

50:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated

51:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much

52:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable

55:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose

56:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?

57:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With just 105 days until the 2026 midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza use their last Super Tuesday before the sub-100-day mark to take stock of what they think they know. The headline: with Trump's approval stuck below 40, gas back over $4, an Iran conflict reigniting, and an ICE controversy dominating the news, nearly every fundamental points toward Republicans losing both chambers — and the guys argue the only thing standing between Democrats and a monster year is the Democrats themselves. They dig deep into the polling weeds, unpacking why the generic ballot has quietly become more of a party-ID number, why you can't compare it across cycles anymore, why independents are breaking hard left, and what to make of the model giving Democrats a 62% shot at the House while Republicans hold a 59% edge in the Senate.

From there it's onto the races reshaping the map: South Carolina, where Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special and Lindsey Graham's appointed sister surprises everyone by running for a full term — a rare bit of GOP pragmatism that hands John Thune a much-needed win — and Maine, where Troy Jackson is set to be coronated at the Democratic convention and the ICE story has erased Susan Collins's post-Platner breathing room. Chuck and Chris also weigh the stalled Todd Blanche confirmation, the $400 million Qatari plane suddenly deemed too unsafe to fly, and why character and temperament remain the whole ballgame. Then they close on LeBron's looming decision — Heat, Cavs, or Sixers — and Chuck plugs the summer slate across the "Chuck Todd expanded universe."

Timeline:

00:00 105 days out from the midterms

02:07 Why August, not July, is when politics really kicks off

03:01 Why campaigns no longer wait for Labor Day to run their hits

04:34 Trump's approval is stuck below 40 a recipe for losing both chambers

05:44 ICE story erases whatever Collins got from the Platner disaster

06:49 Democrats are more motivated

07:23 Arizona Republicans line up to nominate a candidate who can't win

08:08 Trump's primetime speech relitigating 2020

09:26 GOP candidates on the trail are running as far from Trump as possible

10:50 Trump is too lazy to be a dictator

11:54 On 2020, Trump is on an island — even his own party won't follow

14:14 The history: 20 of the last 22 midterms punish the president's party

15:05 The generic ballot vs. 2018 and 2010, for reference

15:51 Why the generic ballot is now really a party-ID number

17:31 Trust the trend lines, not the raw numbers

19:59 The StateNavigate Georgia poll that floored them

20:49 Why Democrats peak in summer polling 

22:19 A smarter "informed ballot" experiment using Google search results

24:36 Democrats 62% to win the House, Republicans 59% to hold the Senate

25:20 Why the Senate number is lower than it should be 

26:54 Iowa as the 50-yard line for a wave

27:42 The daunting Senate map for Dems

30:04 Why the 62% House number surprised Chris

31:52 The one thing that changed all summer — a possible new forever war

32:56 The math favors the GOP: Democrats are playing a road game

34:18 No swing districts left, and a country sorted to the bone

36:03 South Carolina: Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special

36:56 Graham's appointed sister surprises by running for a full term

37:30 A rare case of Trump and the GOP doing the pragmatic thing

41:13 Troy Jackson set for a coronation

42:53 The stalled Todd Blanche confirmation & the $1.8B slush fund

43:15 Why the ICE story is a real problem for Collins

44:02 Ambition as a drug — Homan, Bovino, Noem & the $50k question

45:09 The Odyssey movie and how online discourse isn't real life

47:07 The $400M Qatari plane is suddenly too unsafe to fly

48:07 Character and temperament as the whole ballgame

50:20 Quotes that aged badly

52:05 Trump as Grover Cleveland 

53:34 LeBron's decision: Heat, Cavs, or Sixers

56:20 Miami and Denver as the best physical fits for a 40-year-old LeBron

57:34 The Hall of Fame "five rings table" and the chase for a fifth title

1:00:17 What the prediction markets say 

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Chuck Todd opens with a story that seems small and turns out to be a perfect miniature of everything wrong with this Pentagon: a Blue Angels flyover at Pensacola Beach came in too low, the pilot who made the honest mistake felt terrible about it — and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, without bothering to establish a single fact about what happened, seized the moment to gloat and own the libs. Chuck calls Hegseth an absolute clown and a fake soldier, argues the incident is a window into a Pentagon where the boss cares more about winning an online argument than about the safety of the people he commands, and where the entire "military testosterone" discourse — Hegseth's fixation on creating "supertrooper" fighting men is both dumb and genuinely dangerous. His verdict: a great American military culture is being actively degraded. He extends the same argument to ICE, where the violence has been entirely predictable — the officer involved in the latest shooting had enormous red flags in his background, and the agency appears to have no meaningful vetting process at all.

He also explains why, contrary to much of the commentary, he wasn't alarmed by Trump's primetime election-denial address: it was a nothingburger. Trump has no evidence, which is why he keeps turning to cranks — his endorsement of Mike Lindell tells you everything — and there's no policy response attached to his own foreign-interference allegations, since China has faced no sanction whatsoever for what Trump claims it did. He argues American elections are extraordinarily hard to overturn precisely because the system is decentralized, that Trump is too lazy to become a Putin or a Mao… A more disciplined president would frighten Chuck far more. Chuck sees a forever war taking shape in Iran: the strategy amounts to throwing kinetic weight at the problem and hoping the regime collapses, while Iran fights the asymmetric war it always planned, targeting Gulf states and now civilian survival infrastructure — hitting desalination plants could trigger a crisis lasting years — and nobody in Washington actually knows how to win. He closes with a genuinely important profile of Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, the intellectual architect of the new right's foreign policy and a favorite of JD Vance, whose vision of American retreat from its allies would effectively be the policy of a President Vance: Colby has trashed Mark Carney's "middle power" strategy and declared that no country is entitled to the American defense industry — which,  notes, misses that buying military hardware is a 30-year bet on trusting an ally, and middle powers who conclude they can be coerced by Washington will simply take their money somewhere else. Quick hits on a messy Wisconsin governor's race (Tony Evers built no infrastructure and left no obvious heir in one of the country's most misunderstood swing states) and Tuesday's Arizona primary round things out.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to draw parallels between the arguments in modern American politics to the argument between Richard Nixon and Nikita Khrushchev in the infamous “kitchen debate” and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15 Pensacola Beach is the home of the Blue Angels

03:15 Low flyover from Blue Angels generated massive controversy

03:45 Hegseth has allowed unsafe flyovers in the past

04:15 Hegseth’s leadership at the Pentagon has been awful

05:00 Hegseth used the flyover to try to “own the libs”

05:45 The low flyover at the beach was an honest mistake by the pilot

07:30 Online discourse about flyover was both sides trying to prove their point

08:30 Hegseth didn’t even bother to figure out the facts about the incident

09:00 The pilot felt terrible about the mistake, while Hegseth gloated

11:00 Why Chuck isn’t alarmed by Trump’s election denial primetime speech

11:45 Trump has tested constitutional boundaries unlike any other president

13:30 Trump’s endorsement of Mike Lindell says everything

14:00 Trump doesn’t have evidence of fraud, he turns to election denial cranks

15:15 Trump’s speech was a big fat nothingburger

16:30 Trump wanted government to interfere in the 2020 election

17:30 There’s no policy response to Trump’s allegations about foreign interference

18:30 China hasn’t received any sanction or response to allegations

20:00 Trump has lackeys cherry pick facts to try to sew mistrust in elections

22:00 It is extraordinarily difficult to overturn an American election

22:45 The electoral system is decentralized making it harder to meddle with

23:30 A president more disciplined than Trump would be a bigger worry

24:30 We need to repair structural weaknesses in the democracy

25:15 Trump is too lazy to become a dictator like Putin or Mao

26:00 Trump has his sycophants… but they all fear jail too

27:15 Trump wants other people to risk themselves to keep him in power

28:30 We’re on the road to a “forever war” in Iran

29:00 The plan is just to throw kinetic weight & hope the regime collapses

29:45 Iran’s whole strategy is asymmetric, targeting Gulf states

30:15 Iran is now targeting civilian survival infrastructure

30:45 Hitting desalination plants could create a yearslong crisis

31:30 Administration keeps doubling down on the same strategy

33:30 Nobody in Washington knows how to win the war

34:30 Pete Hegseth is an absolute clown… a fake soldier

35:00 The military testosterone discourse is both dumb and dangerous

36:00 Undersecretary Elbridge Colby has a big role in shaping policy

37:30 Colby wants America to retreat from the world & our allies

38:30 Colby has been embraced by JD Vance & the new right

39:15 Colby’s policies would be those of a President JD Vance

40:30 Allies realize they can be coerced by America

42:30 Colby trashed the “middle power” strategy of Mark Carney

43:00 Colby says nobody is entitled to the U.S. military industry

44:00 Buying military hardware is a 30 year bet on trusting an ally

45:00 Middle powers will look elsewhere to buy their military equipment

46:15 Hegseth wants to create testosterone driven “supertroopers”

47:00 Women aren’t being offered a similar screening

48:00 Jesse Watters comments on testosterone were beyond awful

48:30 Most watched cable host was making sexual assault jokes

49:15 Military has had a longstanding issue with sexual assault

50:00 Young men are marketed testosterone from influencers & now government

51:00 Taking outside testosterone shuts down natural production of it

51:45 Taking testosterone has major negative side effects

53:00 Our great military culture is being destroyed by Trump

53:30 The violence from ICE officers has been entirely predictable

54:15 DHS under Trump never deserves the benefit of the doubt

55:15 Officer involved in shooting had massive red flags in his background

56:00 ICE doesn’t appear to have any vetting process for recruits

1:00:00 Wisconsin governor’s race has become a political mess

1:01:00 Tony Evers didn’t build a strong infrastructure around him

1:01:30 Evers didn’t set up an obvious heir in the Democratic party

1:03:00 The party establishment hasn’t responded to all parts of the base

1:03:45 Wisconsin is one of the most misunderstood swing states

1:05:00 Democrats in Wisconsin have to make the political center comfortable

1:07:30 Arizona primary coming up on Tuesday

01:13:15 ToddCast Time Machine July 24, 1959  

01:13:45 Nixon and Krushchev host the “Kitchen Debate”  

01:14:45 The countries were showing off their way of life - Capitalism vs Communism  

01:15:30 Soviets set up a display in New York to show off their society  

01:16:15 Khrushchev believed history would belong to the communists  

01:16:45 The answer to the Soviet display was a model of an American home  

01:17:30 The argument was that a middle class worker could afford that home  

01:18:00 America showed it offered equality of opportunity, not outcome  

01:18:45 Krushchev and Nixon debated knowing the world would hear it  

01:19:45 Krushchev didn’t believe Americans actually lived that well  

01:20:15 Nixon argued that competition inspired innovation and growth  

01:21:45 Market capitalism proved to be the more dynamic economic system  

01:22:15 There are echoes of the Kitchen Debate in modern American discourse  

01:23:45 The Soviet Union disappeared, the debate hasn’t  

01:24:00 Ask Chuck  

01:24:15 Is MLB lockout avoidable? The state of baseball card collecting?  

01:34:45 Is Trump’s erosion of norms a form of the incrementalism you champion?  

01:38:15 What rights are D.C. & Puerto Rico residents still missing beside representation?  

01:44:00 What goes into a decision to run for office?  

01:47:30 MAGA just a rework of Reagan’s slogan? 

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