Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go

06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand

08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance

11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade

14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump

19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip

21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot

25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters

30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine

35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset 

37:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip

38:30 #1 North Carolina

39:15 #2 Alaska

41:00 #3 Ohio

42:45 #4 Texas

44:30 #5 Maine

46:30 #6 Kansas

47:15 #7 Iowa

49:00 #8 Michigan

52:00 #9 Nebraska

54:15 #10 South Carolina

59:00 Ask Chuck

59:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists?

1:04:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center?

1:08:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum?

1:12:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective?

1:16:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Under four weeks out, Chuck Todd argues this has been the strangest campaign season he can remember — not because Democrats are overperforming, but because of how Republicans are behaving. Red-state Democrats have successfully separated themselves from the national brand and are no longer disqualified simply for being Democrats. Meanwhile almost no Republicans have sought distance from an unpopular president, and Chuck argues GOP candidates in red states have simply forgotten how to persuade anyone. Trump has never been good at defending a record — only at blaming someone else — and in Texas there's no Democrat to blame. Now Trump's running against lived experience at the pump. Chuck points to Thom Tillis calling his Hegseth confirmation vote the biggest regret of his career, estimates 30 Republican senators would dump Trump on a secret ballot, and compares the party to passengers in a car with a drunk driver that nobody will take the keys from. Every race has gotten worse for Republicans except Maine — and Trump may be the Democrats' single best asset over the final four weeks. 

Then, Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Marcia Chatelain joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss How Bright the Path Grows, out October 13th, which tells the story of the Black women who built the 1963 March on Washington and were then written out of it. There's abundant footage of the men who spoke that day; there's no class photo of the women who organized it. Chatelain's central figure is Anna Hedgeman, the march coordinator who noticed no women were scheduled to speak — the original plan had the wives of civil rights leaders simply take a bow. She argues sexism functioned not just as oppression but as deliberate political strategy, and makes the point most Americans miss: King's final speeches challenged capitalism itself, and conservatives who now celebrate "I Have a Dream" took decades to get there. Plus Rosa Parks' financial ruin, why reparations never break through, and whether AI will sanitize history further.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top TEN list of senate races most likely to flip, having to add more races as the map has expanded for Democrats. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 A strange campaign season with four weeks to go

06:15 How red-state Democrats separated from the national brand

08:30 The Republicans who won't appear with Trump or Vance

11:30 Red-state Republicans have forgotten how to persuade

14:30 Running against lived experience at the pump

19:15 Fear of Trump's ire, and the seats he couldn't flip

21:15 Tillis, Hegseth, and the 30 senators who'd dump Trump on a secret ballot

25:30 Trump's behavior and the permission slip for exhausted voters

30:45 Every race has gotten worse except Maine

35:15 Why Trump may be the Democrats' best asset 

40:00 Marcia Chatelain joins The Chuck ToddCast

41:00 Writing women back into the March on Washington

44:30 Sources, threads, and what the march was really about

49:30 How "I Have a Dream" got sanitized — and who gets remembered

52:30 Anna Hedgeman and the women who weren't allowed to speak

55:30 Who thought the march failed, and the case for incrementalism

1:02:30 Diane Nash, Rosa Parks, and the economic retribution against activists

1:09:30 Why reparations hasn't broken through

1:14:00 AI, erasure, and the risk to original sources

1:25:30 Elites, education, and the threats to the Smithsonian

1:32:45 ToddCast Top TEN senate seats most likely to flip

1:33:30 #1 North Carolina

1:34:15 #2 Alaska

1:36:00 #3 Ohio

1:37:45 #4 Texas

1:39:30 #5 Maine

1:41:30 #6 Kansas

1:42:15 #7 Iowa

1:44:00 #8 Michigan

1:47:00 #9 Nebraska

1:49:15 #10 South Carolina

1:54:00 Ask Chuck

1:54:30 How could a future administration remove political loyalists?

1:59:00 What could be lost amongst turmoil at the Kennedy Center?

2:03:30 Can dinner table discussion become important for election momentum?

2:07:30 Do Republicans think NFL Ken Paxton ads are effective?

2:11:45 Skeptical of Hinojosa winning, is this a mirage?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Marcia Chatelain joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss How Bright the Path Grows, out October 13th, which tells the story of the Black women who built the 1963 March on Washington and were then written out of it. There's abundant footage of the men who spoke that day; there's no class photo of the women who organized it. Chatelain's central figure is Anna Hedgeman, the march coordinator who noticed no women were scheduled to speak — the original plan had the wives of civil rights leaders simply take a bow. She argues sexism functioned not just as oppression but as deliberate political strategy, and makes the point most Americans miss: King's final speeches challenged capitalism itself, and conservatives who now celebrate "I Have a Dream" took decades to get there. Plus Rosa Parks' financial ruin, why reparations never breaks through, and whether AI will sanitize history further.

Timeline:

00:00 Marcia Chatelain joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Writing women back into the March on Washington
04:30 Sources, threads, and what the march was really about
09:30 How "I Have a Dream" got sanitized — and who gets remembered
12:30 Anna Hedgeman and the women who weren't allowed to speak
15:30 Who thought the march failed, and the case for incrementalism
22:30 Diane Nash, Rosa Parks, and the economic retribution against activists
29:30 Why reparations hasn't broken through
34:00 AI, erasure, and the risk to original sources
45:30 Elites, education, and the threats to the Smithsonian

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande trace Green Bay from the Ice Bowl and first Super Bowls through the post-Lombardi struggles and the franchise’s eventual rebirth with Brett Favre, Reggie White and Aaron Rodgers. 

The Green Bay Packers became an NFL dynasty under Vince Lombardi. But what happened when the man who built it left? It’s the story of how the Packers built a dynasty that endured across generations.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Twenty-eight days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza stress-test their own assumptions: if everything points one direction, what could still be wrong? They work through all three counterfactuals — the Republican money advantage, a polling miss, and the fact that it's October 6th and not November 2nd — and find the money argument weakest, since the GOP has owned the airwaves for six weeks with no discernible movement. That sets up the episode's central frame, borrowed from Charlie Cook: this is a red undertow, not a blue wave, because the fight is happening in light-red and formerly purple states where Republicans own the status quo and there's no Democrat left to blame. The weekend's five New York Times/Siena polls back it up — Talarico at 51 in Texas, Kansas tied, and Ashley Hinson clinging to a one-point lead in the race Chuck calls the most predictive on the board. He also floats a tinfoil-hat theory about who benefits from leaked audio making Ken Paxton look ungrateful, a day before Politico published exactly that. Plus the Kalshi board and where Susan Collins is underpriced, Ted Cruz firing back at JD Vance, Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round win and what it signals about a Trump on the 2028 ballot, and Trump posting Tom Cotton's cell number over daylight saving time. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SuperTuesdays

http://kalshi.com/r/SuperTuesdays

Timeline:

00:00 Twenty-eight days out — and the case that we're all wrong

04:00 Red undertow, not blue wave: why the map explains everything

08:00 Five NYT/Siena polls, and the one race Chuck would want to know

14:00 Iowa as the tell — and the Republicans who are one turnover away

16:00 The tinfoil hat theory about Paxton, and the money pit called Texas

20:00 Talarico at 51 — the point where money stops mattering

26:00 The Kalshi board: 48 seats, Collins as the value & overpriced governors

35:00 If Collins wins, it's one of the great holds of all time

39:00 A little 2028: Vance baits Cruz, and why Rand Paul is the real threat

45:00 Night golf, $90 checks & the rise of the "meatloaf Republicans"

51:00 Bolsonaro's son wins round one — and the Trump 2028 question

53:00 Baseball playoffs, the ball off the roof & a Packers team with no line

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A month out from the midterms, Chuck Todd separates the garbage polls from the real ones and lands on the NYT/Siena swing-state data: Democrats are winning or tied in Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, Talarico is over 50, and Rob Sand holds a double-digit lead. His key insight is that voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans, with affordability driving everything and millennials the most squeezed group in the country. He also hits a Ken Paxton ad that basically says "support the team" without ever mentioning Paxton, Trump doxxing Tom Cotton over daylight saving time, and Hegseth's new Pentagon Office of Religious Affairs, announced at Quantico with the line that "the real battle is spiritual." Chuck calls that last one what happens in theocracies, and says Hegseth deserves impeachment. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Earl Warren’s appointment as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and why it’s important for justices to have experience in the political system  as elected officials. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Separating the real polls from the garbage

09:15 Inside the NYT/Siena swing state numbers

13:00 Voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans

16:45 Millennials, Gen Z, and the generational split

20:00 The Democratic brand problem nobody has solved

23:30 Paxton's "support the team" ad and the rot in Republican politics

27:00 Trump's denial, Hassett's spin, and the $90 Medicare checks

31:45 Trump doxxes Tom Cotton over daylight saving time

35:30 The Atlantic on Kash Patel and the 2020 fraud hunt

41:45 Hegseth's Office of Religious Affairs and an ideological military 

57:30 ToddCast Time Machine  Earl Warren sworn in as chief justice

58:00 We’re suffering from a lack of diversity of experience on SCOTUS

1:00:30 Last elected politician on the court left 50 years ago. Earl warren

1:02:00 Eisenhower offered Warren a quid pro quo for seat

1:05:00 Warren knew Brown v Board needed to be 9-0

1:08:30 Eisenhower came to regret appointing Warren

1:10:30 Warren court reshaped constitutional law & expanded rights

1:15:45 We’ve screened out political experience for SCOTUS justices

1:17:15 Last Democrat to install a chief justice was Harry Truman

1:21:00 Ask Chuck

1:21:15 Can’t get into baseball… what am I missing?

1:26:00 Best comedic political impressions?

1:29:45 What do you make of Carnegie Mellon’s expansion into Miami

1:33:00 Thank you for interview about Marian Anderson

1:34:30 Could commit to constituent service be persuasive?

1:38:45 College football recap

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A month out from the midterms, Chuck Todd separates the garbage polls from the real ones and lands on the NYT/Siena swing-state data: Democrats are winning or tied in Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, Talarico is over 50, and Rob Sand holds a double-digit lead. His key insight is that voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans, with affordability driving everything and millennials the most squeezed group in the country. He also hits a Ken Paxton ad that basically says "support the team" without ever mentioning Paxton, Trump doxxing Tom Cotton over daylight saving time, and Hegseth's new Pentagon Office of Religious Affairs, announced at Quantico with the line that "the real battle is spiritual." Chuck calls that last one what happens in theocracies, and says Hegseth deserves impeachment. 

Then, Jennifer Palmieri — former Obama and Clinton communications director and host of Crooked Media's Long Play, the documentary series traveling six Southern states — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue the South is now the epicenter of American politics and Democrats have spent years writing it off. One-party rule has bred civic disengagement, she says, and the region gets treated as a monolith when it's anything but. Her sharpest point: Democrats are overinvesting in Maine and underinvesting in Mississippi, where Scott Colom has a real path. She also makes the case that if Greg Abbott loses, it'll be over education, that Gina Hinojosa is running a smart campaign, and that religion remains the biggest obstacle Democrats face in a region where life is faith, family, and football. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Earl Warren’s appointment as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and why it’s important for justices to have experience in the political system  as elected officials. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Separating the real polls from the garbage

09:15 Inside the NYT/Siena swing state numbers

13:00 Voters aren't embracing Democrats — they're firing Republicans

16:45 Millennials, Gen Z, and the generational split

20:00 The Democratic brand problem nobody has solved

23:30 Paxton's "support the team" ad and the rot in Republican politics

27:00 Trump's denial, Hassett's spin, and the $90 Medicare checks

31:45 Trump doxxes Tom Cotton over daylight saving time

35:30 The Atlantic on Kash Patel and the 2020 fraud hunt

41:45 Hegseth's Office of Religious Affairs and an ideological military 

58:00 Jennifer Palmieri joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:00:15 Why the South became the epicenter of American politics

1:04:45 The South isn't a monolith — and Democrats keep treating it like one

1:12:15 No opposition, no primaries: what one-party rule does to a state

1:18:45 Georgia's civil rights legacy and the decisions still shaping it

1:21:30 Mississippi's path, and why Democrats are investing in the wrong places

1:28:45 The Latino vote and the transformation of Texas

1:30:30 Education, Abbott, and the Hinojosa campaign

1:36:15 Faith, family, football — and the Democratic communication problem

1:45:30 Talarico, the rising floor in Texas, and the brand problem

1:53:15 Why Jon Ossoff has had a very good 2026

1:56:00 ToddCast Time Machine  Earl Warren sworn in as chief justice
1:56:30 We’re suffering from a lack of diversity of experience on SCOTUS
1:59:00 Last elected politician on the court left 50 years ago. Earl warren
2:00:30 Eisenhower offered Warren a quid pro quo for seat
2:03:30 Warren knew Brown v Board needed to be 9-0
2:07:00 Eisenhower came to regret appointing Warren
2:09:00 Warren court reshaped constitutional law & expanded rights
2:14:15 We’ve screened out political experience for SCOTUS justices
2:15:45 Last Democrat to install a chief justice was Harry Truman
2:19:30 Ask Chuck
2:19:45 Can’t get into baseball… what am I missing?
2:24:30 Best comedic political impressions?
2:28:15 What do you make of Carnegie Mellon’s expansion into Miami
2:31:30 Thank you for interview about Marian Anderson
2:33:00 Could commit to constituent service be persuasive?
2:37:15 College football recap

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jennifer Palmieri — former Obama and Clinton communications director and host of Crooked Media's Long Play, the documentary series traveling six Southern states — joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue the South is now the epicenter of American politics and Democrats have spent years writing it off. One-party rule has bred civic disengagement, she says, and the region gets treated as a monolith when it's anything but. Her sharpest point: Democrats are overinvesting in Maine and underinvesting in Mississippi, where Scott Colom has a real path. She also makes the case that if Greg Abbott loses, it'll be over education, that Gina Hinojosa is running a smart campaign, and that religion remains the biggest obstacle Democrats face in a region where life is faith, family, and football. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:15 Why the South became the epicenter of American politics
06:45 The South isn't a monolith — and Democrats keep treating it like one
14:15 No opposition, no primaries: what one-party rule does to a state
20:45 Georgia's civil rights legacy and the decisions still shaping it
23:30 Mississippi's path, and why Democrats are investing in the wrong places
30:45 The Latino vote and the transformation of Texas
32:30 Education, Abbott, and the Hinojosa campaign
38:15 Faith, family, football — and the Democratic communication problem
47:30 Talarico, the rising floor in Texas, and the brand problem
55:15 Why Jon Ossoff has had a very good 2026

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the attempted hijacking of a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight and the reminder that history turns as much on what almost happened as what did. With 33 days to the midterms, Ken Paxton got caught on tape at a private event calling Trump's midterm convention a negative — and is now in full cleanup mode, nervous about having crossed the president. Chuck returns to the Eric Schmitt debacle as a window into the intellectual rot of the Trump-era GOP: nobody in the room double-checked the facts, because loyalty is now valued over competence and the conclusion arrives before the evidence. He also unpacks Trump's White House AI summit, where six tech CEOs signed a one-page "morally binding" accord and Trump formally renamed AI "superintelligence" by executive order — a self-policing pact that does nothing for Republicans whose own voters are frightened of this technology. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:00 The attempted hijacking and the history that almost happened

11:45 Paxton caught on tape, and a campaign in cleanup mode

17:45 The Schmitt incident and the intellectual rot of the Trump GOP

27:30 Trump's AI summit, the "superintelligence" rebrand, and a self-policing pact

31:15 The issues polling best don't help Republicans at all

36:30 An economic backdrop the GOP can't ignore

39:45 The off-ramps Trump won't take

43:00 Voter exhaustion, instability, and what comes after a wipeout 

00:52:30 Ask Chuck

00:52:45 Book recommendation about the “butterfly effect” in history

00:54:30 Thoughts on your monologue on fixing public ed

00:56:15 Why aren’t Democrats putting more resources into Texas?

01:00:45 Would you have a former FBI agent on the pod to discuss changes at FBI?

01:02:00 Can a self-described Democratic socialist like AOC win in America?

01:07:00 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the attempted hijacking of a Dubai-to-Tel Aviv flight and the reminder that history turns as much on what almost happened as what did. With 33 days to the midterms, Ken Paxton got caught on tape at a private event calling Trump's midterm convention a negative — and is now in full cleanup mode, nervous about having crossed the president. Chuck returns to the Eric Schmitt debacle as a window into the intellectual rot of the Trump-era GOP: nobody in the room double-checked the facts, because loyalty is now valued over competence and the conclusion arrives before the evidence. He also unpacks Trump's White House AI summit, where six tech CEOs signed a one-page "morally binding" accord and Trump formally renamed AI "superintelligence" by executive order — a self-policing pact that does nothing for Republicans whose own voters are frightened of this technology. 

Then, Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon — the Jacksonville union organizer and DSA member who upset Alex Vindman in the Senate primary despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1 — joins the Chuck ToddCast. She explains how she got into politics through community organizing, why she associates with the DSA while not agreeing with everything it wants, and argues Democrats lost Florida because they divested from the state after 2018 rather than because of ideology. She describes being assigned a basement office with rats as punishment in Tallahassee, calls the Florida legislature pay-to-play but still workable, and lays out what she'd do in the Senate: repeal the Big Beautiful Bill, extend ACA subsidies, get big money out of politics, and fund HBCUs. She won't commit to voting for Chuck Schumer. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:00 The attempted hijacking and the history that almost happened

11:45 Paxton caught on tape, and a campaign in cleanup mode

17:45 The Schmitt incident and the intellectual rot of the Trump GOP

27:30 Trump's AI summit, the "superintelligence" rebrand, and a self-policing pact

31:15 The issues polling best don't help Republicans at all

36:30 An economic backdrop the GOP can't ignore

39:45 The off-ramps Trump won't take

43:00 Voter exhaustion, instability, and what comes after a wipeout 

00:55:45 Angie Nixon joins the Chuck ToddCast

00:56:45 From community organizing to the statehouse

01:01:15 Why the DSA — and where she parts ways with it

01:04:15 How Democrats lost Florida, and why divestment did it

01:10:15 Rats in the basement: corruption and pay-to-play in Tallahassee

01:16:30 What she wants to do in the Senate

01:22:15 Venezuelans afraid to leave the house, and Florida's political swings

01:28:15 Fixing the Democratic Party — and not committing to Schumer

1:35:15 Ask Chuck

1:35:30 Book recommendation about the “butterfly effect” in history

1:37:15 Thoughts on your monologue on fixing public ed

1:39:00 Why aren’t Democrats putting more resources into Texas?

1:42:30 Would you have a former FBI agent on the pod to discuss changes at FBI?

1:44:45 Can a self-described Democratic socialist like AOC win in America?

1:49:45 College football preview 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Florida State Rep. Angie Nixon — the Jacksonville union organizer and DSA member who upset Alex Vindman in the Senate primary despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1 — joins the Chuck ToddCast. She explains how she got into politics through community organizing, why she associates with the DSA while not agreeing with everything it wants, and argues Democrats lost Florida because they divested from the state after 2018 rather than because of ideology. She describes being assigned a basement office with rats as punishment in Tallahassee, calls the Florida legislature pay-to-play but still workable, and lays out what she'd do in the Senate: repeal the Big Beautiful Bill, extend ACA subsidies, get big money out of politics, and fund HBCUs. She won't commit to voting for Chuck Schumer. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

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Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Angie Nixon joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 From community organizing to the statehouse

05:30 Why the DSA — and where she parts ways with it

08:30 How Democrats lost Florida, and why divestment did it

14:30 Rats in the basement: corruption and pay-to-play in Tallahassee

20:45 What she wants to do in the Senate

26:30 Venezuelans afraid to leave the house, and Florida's political swings

32:30 Fixing the Democratic Party — and not committing to Schumer

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by correcting Jon Stewart, who made him a punchline Monday — before turning to the circus at Tuesday's Jack Smith hearing. Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt, a potential 2028 VP pick, thought he'd caught Smith perjuring himself with text messages placing him at an Atlanta Hawks game the day after the Fani Willis affair broke. Smith was at an Iowa Hawkeyes women's game in Maryland. Klobuchar spotted the mix-up, Schmitt never backtracked, and Chuck's point is the deeper one: Schmitt decided the conclusion before the evidence and displayed exactly the confirmation bias he was accusing Smith of. If evidence can't change your worldview, what's the point of evidence? The second half is a substantive argument that the voucher experiment has hit a dead end — it never moved low-income kids into private schools, it mostly subsidized families already paying tuition, and school funding may be a real reason Republicans lose in November. He also explains why focusing on improving pre-k through 3rd grade education should be a national project.  

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 2026 midterm results that will most impact the 2028 race and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:45 Jon Stewart, NBC, and setting the record straight

03:15 Which Republicans will actually campaign with Trump

09:15 The Schmitt-Jack Smith hearing debacle

13:15 Confirmation bias and what evidence is even for

16:15 What Jack Smith was actually investigating

22:45 Public education as an American advantage

25:30 The voucher experiment and whether competition worked

30:00 What Mississippi got right, and why pre-K through 3rd grade is everything

40:45 Vouchers hit a dead end — and the political price

47:30 Alabama's TikTok settlement and the limits of blaming teachers 

00:57:45 ToddCast Top 5 2026 results that will most impact 2028

00:58:00 #5 Does an independent break through?

01:00:15 #4 California’s wealth tax

01:01:45 #3 Texas senate

01:03:15 #2 Texas governor

01:04:45 #1 Michigan senate

01:06:45 Ask Chuck

01:07:00 How would a mega-tsunami election affect committee assignments?

01:11:45 Is there a value in running uphill races beyond winning?

01:16:15 Will Republicans act with more independence from Trump after midterms?

01:18:45 If enough independents won and didn’t caucus, who would have control?

01:23:30 Favorite sports + political movies? Should Trump impeachment have been broader?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by correcting Jon Stewart, who made him a punchline Monday — before turning to the circus at Tuesday's Jack Smith hearing. Missouri Sen. Eric Schmitt, a potential 2028 VP pick, thought he'd caught Smith perjuring himself with text messages placing him at an Atlanta Hawks game the day after the Fani Willis affair broke. Smith was at an Iowa Hawkeyes women's game in Maryland. Klobuchar spotted the mix-up, Schmitt never backtracked, and Chuck's point is the deeper one: Schmitt decided the conclusion before the evidence and displayed exactly the confirmation bias he was accusing Smith of. If evidence can't change your worldview, what's the point of evidence? The second half is a substantive argument that the voucher experiment has hit a dead end — it never moved low-income kids into private schools, it mostly subsidized families already paying tuition, and school funding may be a real reason Republicans lose in November. He also explains why focusing on improving pre-k through 3rd grade education should be a national project.  

Then, CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss The Elections That Changed the World, out September 22nd, which she wrote with David Fisher. The fifteen elections she chose stretch from Julius Caesar — who ran partly because he was deeply indebted and didn't want to be prosecuted — to Nelson Mandela, and "election" is defined loosely enough to include Pope John XXIII's selection and Martin Luther King's informal elevation to lead the Montgomery bus boycott. The through-line is money: wealth shaped nearly every one of them, from the Magna Carta to Caesar effectively buying votes. Bash's larger point is that you rarely know in the moment how consequential a vote will be — Germany in 1932 was a revolution disguised as an election. Plus her five favorite 2026 races, why Michigan is fascinating, and what it's like covering a second-term Trump White House. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 2026 midterm results that will most impact the 2028 race and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:45 Jon Stewart, NBC, and setting the record straight

03:15 Which Republicans will actually campaign with Trump

09:15 The Schmitt-Jack Smith hearing debacle

13:15 Confirmation bias and what evidence is even for

16:15 What Jack Smith was actually investigating

22:45 Public education as an American advantage

25:30 The voucher experiment and whether competition worked

30:00 What Mississippi got right, and why pre-K through 3rd grade is everything

40:45 Vouchers hit a dead end — and the political price

47:30 Alabama's TikTok settlement and the limits of blaming teachers 

58:45 Dana Bash joins The Chuck ToddCast

59:45 Why write "The Elections That Changed the World"

1:44:30 Caesar, Hitler, and the cautionary tales

1:46:45 Wealth as the through-line from the Magna Carta forward

1:15:15 Sun Yat-Sen and the bridge between imperial China and Mao

1:21:15 Pope John XXIII and modernizing the Catholic Church

1:25:15 Kasturba Gandhi, Golda Meir, and women leading democracies

1:32:30 Mandela's election and the limits of judging history in real time

1:43:45 2026 races to watch: Michigan, Lawler, Iowa, Texas

1:58:15 Covering a second-term Trump White House

2:04:45 ToddCast Top 5 2026 results that will most impact 2028

2:05:00 #5 Does an independent break through?

2:09:30 #4 California’s wealth tax

2:08:45 #3 Texas senate

2:10:15 #2 Texas governor

2:11:45 #1 Michigan senate

2:13:45 Ask Chuck

2:14:00 How would a mega-tsunami election affect committee assignments?

2:18:45 Is there a value in running uphill races beyond winning?

2:23:15 Will Republicans act with more independence from Trump after midterms?

2:25:45 If enough independents won and didn’t caucus, who would have control?

2:30:30 Favorite sports + political movies? Should Trump impeachment have been broader?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss The Elections That Changed the World, out September 22nd, which she wrote with David Fisher. The fifteen elections she chose stretch from Julius Caesar — who ran partly because he was deeply indebted and didn't want to be prosecuted — to Nelson Mandela, and "election" is defined loosely enough to include Pope John XXIII's selection and Martin Luther King's informal elevation to lead the Montgomery bus boycott. The through-line is money: wealth shaped nearly every one of them, from the Magna Carta to Caesar effectively buying votes. Bash's larger point is that you rarely know in the moment how consequential a vote will be — Germany in 1932 was a revolution disguised as an election. Plus her five favorite 2026 races, why Michigan is fascinating, and what it's like covering a second-term Trump White House. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Dana Bash joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Why write "The Elections That Changed the World"?

05:45 Caesar, Hitler, and the cautionary tales

08:00 Wealth as the through-line from the Magna Carta forward

16:30 Sun Yat-Sen and the bridge between imperial China and Mao

22:30 Pope John XXIII and modernizing the Catholic Church

26:30 Kasturba Gandhi, Golda Meir, and women leading democracies

33:45 Mandela's election and the limits of judging history in real time

45:00 2026 races to watch: Michigan, Lawler, Iowa, Texas

59:30 Covering a second-term Trump White House

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thirty-five days out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on a president playing the hits: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament, then announced his campaign tour kicks off in Durant, Oklahoma and Mobile, Alabama — the site of his first mega-rally in 2015 — rather than anywhere control of Congress is being decided. The more consequential move was rejecting Iran's seven-day truce offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an exit ramp every Republican in a tough race is publicly begging for; Brent jumped above $107 on the news. That sets up the episode's best segment: a truth-serum run through every competitive Senate race asking which Republicans would actually stand next to Trump — and why the answer across Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska is no, because the damage there is his own tariff and diesel policy. Plus the Senate Leadership Fund's $118 million bet on Ken Paxton, a candidate who's spent under $1 million himself; Fetterman's "lifelong Republican" slip; why Murkowski's calculus runs entirely through Mary Peltola; and why Chuck reads AOC's upstate tour as a Senate campaign, not a presidential one. 

Timeline:

00:00 Trump kicks off in Oklahoma and Mobile — and rejects the Iran exit ramp

08:00 Truth serum: which Republicans would actually do a rally with Trump?

18:00 The $118M Paxton bet, and whether McConnell would have swerved

26:00 Triage: walking from Georgia and North Carolina, holding Maine and Ohio

30:00 Fetterman's slip, Murkowski's calculus & when party switches happen

40:00 AOC's real 2028 decision — and why Chuck reads it as the Senate

48:00 The Nats finish 77-85; why reloading is harder than it looks

54:00 The Packers, an atrocious offensive line & a pick headed to the Jets

1:03:00 Kalshi sponsorship, the 62% sweep question & Collins underpriced

1:12:00 Do your own research — and World Series wishes

"18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS 
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Chuck Todd zeroes in on a president who has become the entire election: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament while Americans struggle, announced he'd rejected an Iran deal as though he holds all the cards, and now sits at 37% approval in a new WSJ poll — the lowest for any president heading into a midterm in their polling since 1990, with 11% of his own 2024 voters saying they regret the vote. Chuck is appalled by a cultish government-produced TV ad made with taxpayer dollars, notes Republicans don't want Trump campaigning for them (he's being routed to Oklahoma and Alabama), and points to Charlie Cook's framing that this isn't a blue wave so much as a red undertow. His race of the cycle: Gina Hinojosa in Texas, running as a populist rather than a socialist, airing an ad with a former January 6th defendant, and now leading Abbott in a Marist poll.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson suffering a debilitating stroke, the efforts to cover it up by his White House and the eerie parallels we’ve seen in the behavior of both the Biden and Trump staffers. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in football.

Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Trump as the focal point of the entire election

06:30 The Iran war drags on while Trump seems disinterested

14:45 Trump hits 37% in the new WSJ poll

16:15 The cultish taxpayer-funded TV ad

21:15 Republicans who don't want Trump campaigning for them

26:15 Charlie Cook's red undertow, and a GOP retreat that skipped Texas

31:45 Gina Hinojosa is running the smartest campaign in red America

40:45 Why the Senate and governor maps look nothing alike

45:00 Tuberville's furries floor speech and Beshear's opportunity 

57:30 ToddCast Time Machine - October 2nd, 1919

58:45 Wilson was trying to ratify the League of Nations

1:00:00 Wilson collapsed, suffered a massive stroke

1:02:15 Wilson’s doctor wouldn’t declare him incapacitated

1:03:45 Nobody was able to remove Wilson

1:05:30 States ratified the 25th amendment

1:07:15 Aides for Wilson and Trump lacked candor

1:09:00 We’re seeing boxy bulges under Trump’s pants with no explanation

1:10:00 Trump’s doctors say he’s fine, but impossible to know

1:13:15 Congress should create independent body for 25th amendment

1:16:30 Ask Chuck

1:16:45 Could Democrats use vanity plays to bargain with Trump?

1:21:15 Could voters challenge use of Missouri’s new map after midterms?

1:26:00 Did Trump deliberately ban media to coincide with meeting with Xi?

1:28:15 What role do you expect Obama to play in the midterms?

1:31:15 NFL/College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd zeroes in on a president who has become the entire election: Trump spent the weekend at a football game and a golf tournament while Americans struggle, announced he'd rejected an Iran deal as though he holds all the cards, and now sits at 37% approval in a new WSJ poll — the lowest for any president heading into a midterm in their polling since 1990, with 11% of his own 2024 voters saying they regret the vote. Chuck is appalled by a cultish government-produced TV ad made with taxpayer dollars, notes Republicans don't want Trump campaigning for them (he's being routed to Oklahoma and Alabama), and points to Charlie Cook's framing that this isn't a blue wave so much as a red undertow. His race of the cycle: Gina Hinojosa in Texas, running as a populist rather than a socialist, airing an ad with a former January 6th defendant, and now leading Abbott in a Marist poll.

Then, former Agriculture Secretary and two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack — the longest-serving USDA secretary of the modern era, joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain what's actually happening in farm country. The Iran war has driven up input costs while deportations gut the labor supply, farmers get blamed for high prices despite capturing the smallest share of every agricultural dollar, and importing beef only discourages domestic ranchers from staying in business. Vilsack notes America has lost a million farming operations since 1973, with most federal support flowing to the top 10%. He argues food security is national security, that SNAP cuts are income cuts for farmers, and that Iowans are tired enough of watching their kids leave the state to vote for change — with Rob Sand's authenticity, not his party label, the reason he's connecting. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Woodrow Wilson suffering a debilitating stroke, the efforts to cover it up by his White House and the eerie parallels we’ve seen in the behavior of both the Biden and Trump staffers. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the weekend in football.

Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 Trump as the focal point of the entire election

06:30 The Iran war drags on while Trump seems disinterested

14:45 Trump hits 37% in the new WSJ poll

16:15 The cultish taxpayer-funded TV ad

21:15 Republicans who don't want Trump campaigning for them

26:15 Charlie Cook's red undertow, and a GOP retreat that skipped Texas

31:45 Gina Hinojosa is running the smartest campaign in red America

40:45 Why the Senate and governor maps look nothing alike

45:00 Tuberville's furries floor speech and Beshear's opportunity 

59:00 Tom Vilsack joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:01:00 Pirates baseball and why national media misses agriculture

1:04:45 The Iran war, input costs, and a deported labor force

1:09:00 What can actually lower beef prices

1:15:00 A million lost farms and who federal support really reaches

1:21:00 Food security is national security

1:28:45 SNAP cuts, rural schools, and the Senate map in the Midwest

1:35:00 Rob Sand, authenticity, and why Iowa may vote for change

1:44:00 Should 2028 Democrats spend time in Iowa?

1:51:45 Data centers, a bio-based farm economy, and what a good night looks like

1:58:00 ToddCast Time Machine - October 2nd, 1919

1:59:15 Wilson was trying to ratify the League of Nations

2:00:30 Wilson collapsed, suffered a massive stroke

2:02:45 Wilson’s doctor wouldn’t declare him incapacitated

2:04:15 Nobody was able to remove Wilson

2:06:00 States ratified the 25th amendment

2:07:45 Aides for Wilson and Trump lacked candor

2:09:30 We’re seeing boxy bulges under Trump’s pants with no explanation

2:10:30 Trump’s doctors say he’s fine, but impossible to know

2:13:45 Congress should create independent body for 25th amendment

2:17:00 Ask Chuck

2:17:15 Could Democrats use vanity plays to bargain with Trump?

2:21:45 Could voters challenge use of Missouri’s new map after midterms?

2:26:30 Did Trump deliberately ban media to coincide with meeting with Xi?

2:28:45 What role do you expect Obama to play in the midterms?

2:31:45 NFL/College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Agriculture Secretary and two-term Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack — the longest-serving USDA secretary of the modern era, now CEO of the World Food Prize Foundation — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain what's actually happening in farm country. The Iran war has driven up input costs while deportations gut the labor supply, farmers get blamed for high prices despite capturing the smallest share of every agricultural dollar, and importing beef only discourages domestic ranchers from staying in business. Vilsack notes America has lost a million farming operations since 1973, with most federal support flowing to the top 10%. He argues food security is national security, that SNAP cuts are income cuts for farmers, and that Iowans are tired enough of watching their kids leave the state to vote for change — with Rob Sand's authenticity, not his party label, the reason he's connecting. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Tom Vilsack joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Pirates baseball and why national media misses agriculture

05:45 The Iran war, input costs, and a deported labor force

10:00 What can actually lower beef prices

16:00 A million lost farms and who federal support really reaches

22:00 Food security is national security

29:45 SNAP cuts, rural schools, and the Senate map in the Midwest

36:00 Rob Sand, authenticity, and why Iowa may vote for change

45:00 Should 2028 Democrats spend time in Iowa?

52:45 Data centers, a bio-based farm economy, and what a good night looks like

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande go back to the unlikely beginnings of one of the NFL’s most iconic franchises. From Curly Lambeau and the team’s unusual origin story to the community ownership structure that helped keep the Packers in Green Bay, they explore how a small Wisconsin city survived while other early NFL towns disappeared.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues you don't need a poll to read the midterms — Republican behavior tells you everything. JD Vance is conceding things aren't going well, nobody's buying that it's Biden's economy anymore, and Tim Scott told the NRSC they're in "the fight for their lives," though his 2022 comparison misses that Democrats had Dobbs and Republicans have no equivalent in 2026. Todd's larger argument runs through Trump's UN speech, where the president justified seizing Venezuelan oil with "to the victor go the spoils" — a permission slip Todd says the rest of the world will happily accept. Between unilaterally inviting Putin to the G20, rolling out the red carpet for Xi, and a military stretched thin by Iran, America is now seen as an unreliable partner: one Trump presidency was an aberration, two changes the equation, and it'll take multiple presidents from both parties to win that trust back. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 You don't need a poll — Republican behavior tells the story

11:00 Tim Scott's "fight for our lives" and the missing Dobbs equivalent

17:45 The diesel export ban and Trump's scramble for an Iran deal

23:15 Where Democrats are short on money — and which races are slipping

29:00 "To the victor go the spoils": Trump's UN speech on Venezuela

32:45 A stretched military and allies who no longer trust us

38:30 Xi's red carpet, Putin at the G20, and unilateralism's costs

44:00 Dismantling the system that made America richer and safer 

50:30 Ask Chuck

50:45 Any parallels from Nixon’s career that Harris could take in future run?

54:15 What are the five issues a Dem majority should tackle in 2027?

59:15 Why should fans believe this version of college football is sustainable?

1:05:15 Could congress turn AI concerns into meaningful legislation?

1:08:30 If Dems retake congress, can they force WH to change course?

1:13:15 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues you don't need a poll to read the midterms — Republican behavior tells you everything. JD Vance is conceding things aren't going well, nobody's buying that it's Biden's economy anymore, and Tim Scott told the NRSC they're in "the fight for their lives," though his 2022 comparison misses that Democrats had Dobbs and Republicans have no equivalent in 2026. Todd's larger argument runs through Trump's UN speech, where the president justified seizing Venezuelan oil with "to the victor go the spoils" — a permission slip Todd says the rest of the world will happily accept. Between unilaterally inviting Putin to the G20, rolling out the red carpet for Xi, and a military stretched thin by Iran, America is now seen as an unreliable partner: one Trump presidency was an aberration, two changes the equation, and it'll take multiple presidents from both parties to win that trust back. 

Then, Adam Brandon — who ran FreedomWorks for over a decade and now co-founded the Independent Leadership Council alongside Joe Manchin — joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that a handful of independents could break Washington's logjam. His argument: the parties have shrunk their tents, the blue dogs and moderate Republicans of the 1990s are gone, and in an era of slim majorities, ten independents in Congress could rewrite the rules when a new Congress is seated, install an apolitical speaker, and change every incentive overnight. He points to Montana — where the ILC-affiliated Independent PAC is now airing ads for Seth Bodnar, who needs roughly 210,000 votes to win — as proof the value of money in politics is starting to collapse. Plus: why Libertarians never break through, what younger voters actually want, and why burning the system down just leaves you living in ash.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 You don't need a poll — Republican behavior tells the story

11:00 Tim Scott's "fight for our lives" and the missing Dobbs equivalent

17:45 The diesel export ban and Trump's scramble for an Iran deal

23:15 Where Democrats are short on money — and which races are slipping

29:00 "To the victor go the spoils": Trump's UN speech on Venezuela

32:45 A stretched military and allies who no longer trust us

38:30 Xi's red carpet, Putin at the G20, and unilateralism's costs

44:00 Dismantling the system that made America richer and safer 

53:00 Adam Brandon joins the Chuck ToddCast

54:00 Debt, deficits, and why independents lost faith in both parties

59:30 The vanishing middle: blue dogs, shrunken tents, and the 1990s

1:08:00 How ten independents could break the logjam in Congress

1:16:30 The collapsing value of money in politics — and the Montana test

1:23:00 Why Libertarians can't break through, and politics as entertainment

1:32:15 AI, job displacement, and where independents have the best shot

1:39:00 Rethinking the Partisan Voter Index and where to focus

1:43:45 What younger voters actually want from the system

1:50:15 The candidates ILC is backing — and why 2026 could change everything

1:56:00 Washington's warning, Lincoln's unity ticket, and a fragile democracy

2:02:00 Ask Chuck

2:02:15 Any parallels from Nixon’s career that Harris could take in future run?

2:05:45 What are the five issues a Dem majority should tackle in 2027?

2:10:45 Why should fans believe this version of college football is sustainable?

2:16:45 Could congress turn AI concerns into meaningful legislation?

2:20:00 If Dems retake congress, can they force WH to change course?

2:24:45 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam Brandon — who ran FreedomWorks for over a decade and now co-founded the Independent Leadership Council alongside Joe Manchin — joins the Chuck ToddCast to make the case that a handful of independents could break Washington's logjam. His argument: the parties have shrunk their tents, the blue dogs and moderate Republicans of the 1990s are gone, and in an era of slim majorities, ten independents in Congress could rewrite the rules when a new Congress is seated, install an apolitical speaker, and change every incentive overnight. He points to Montana — where the ILC-affiliated Independent PAC is now airing ads for Seth Bodnar, who needs roughly 210,000 votes to win — as proof the value of money in politics is starting to collapse. Plus: why Libertarians never break through, what younger voters actually want, and why burning the system down just leaves you living in ash. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Debt, deficits, and why independents lost faith in both parties

06:30 The vanishing middle: blue dogs, shrunken tents, and the 1990s

15:00 How ten independents could break the logjam in Congress

23:30 The collapsing value of money in politics — and the Montana test

30:00 Why Libertarians can't break through, and politics as entertainment

39:15 AI, job displacement, and where independents have the best shot

46:00 Rethinking the Partisan Voter Index and where to focus

50:45 What younger voters actually want from the system

57:15 The candidates ILC is backing — and why 2026 could change everything

1:03:00 Washington's warning, Lincoln's unity ticket, and a fragile democracy

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into ProPublica's bombshell on Susan Collins, which details how her office steered millions in federal contracts to defense firm Navatek while her campaign operation pumped CEO Martin Kao's network for donations — sometimes cut within 24 hours of the defense spending bill clearing a Senate hurdle — and how the FBI's pay-to-play investigation died after Trump's purge of the bureau. Chuck’s argument is that the legality is precisely the point: Washington in 2026 is a legalized influence marketplace, Collins is no outlier, and what's needed is a post-Watergate-style transparency revolution — if money is speech, it shouldn't be allowed to hide. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of the worst issues a candidate can campaign on for the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The ProPublica story and what it says about Susan Collins

07:00 The FBI investigation Trump's bureau shut down

08:15 The bigger story: how normal this kind of corruption has become

18:00 Crypto's $30 million play in Ohio and the threat of outside money

21:30 The transparency revolution we actually need

34:45 Iran waiting out the midterms, Mamdani, and Xi's visit

38:45 New Pew data on data centers — and where the money is going

44:30 AOC hints at 2028, and the GOP's Senate spending advantage

51:30 The Paramount settlement with California 

58:00 ToddCast Top 5 most unpopular campaign issues

58:45 #5 A candidate endorsed by Donald Trump

59:00 #4 Wanting to abolish ICE

59:30 #3 Supporting weapons and funding for Israel

59:45 #2 Supporting the war in Iran

1:00:15 #1 Supporting for building data centers

1:02:00 Ask Chuck

1:02:15 What prevents a journalist from pivoting during a TV interview?

1:06:15 Advice for helping with kidney stones

1:07:30 What factors are behind Kansas suddenly becoming competitive?

1:14:15 If you could ask Trump one question, what would it be?

1:16:30 Could a future congress pursue financial penalties for pardoned officials?

1:19:00 Shout out to the Nats

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into ProPublica's bombshell on Susan Collins, which details how her office steered millions in federal contracts to defense firm Navatek while her campaign operation pumped CEO Martin Kao's network for donations — sometimes cut within 24 hours of the defense spending bill clearing a Senate hurdle — and how the FBI's pay-to-play investigation died after Trump's purge of the bureau. Chuck’s argument is that the legality is precisely the point: Washington in 2026 is a legalized influence marketplace, Collins is no outlier, and what's needed is a post-Watergate-style transparency revolution — if money is speech, it shouldn't be allowed to hide. 

Then, Anthony Scaramucci returns to the Chuck ToddCast with All the Wrong Moves, out September 22nd, which argues Trump is a symptom rather than the disease — the product of three decades of bipartisan mistakes: Clinton's China trade deal, Bush waging war while cutting taxes, and Obama's bailout that rescued Wall Street while leaving ordinary families behind. He and Chuck also revisit the private credit questions raised in the ToddCast's Lakers special report, with Scaramucci arguing risky lending simply migrated from banks to private markets and that Mark Walter is likely not an outlier. His predictions are blunt: Trump is effectively conviction-proof, and in Scaramucci's view will try to make tens of billions before pardoning himself and his family — which is why, he warns, if the country doesn't take care of its people, the pitchforks will come out. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of the worst issues a candidate can campaign on for the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

You can order All The Wrong Moves here: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1250437563

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The ProPublica story and what it says about Susan Collins

07:00 The FBI investigation Trump's bureau shut down

08:15 The bigger story: how normal this kind of corruption has become

18:00 Crypto's $30 million play in Ohio and the threat of outside money

21:30 The transparency revolution we actually need

34:45 Iran waiting out the midterms, Mamdani, and Xi's visit

38:45 New Pew data on data centers — and where the money is going

44:30 AOC hints at 2028, and the GOP's Senate spending advantage

51:30 The Paramount settlement with California 

59:45 "All the Wrong Moves" and the three decades that produced Trump

1:01:45 China, the wars, and a bailout that skipped the citizens

1:05:30 Is Mark Walter an outlier? Private credit and where the risk went

1:09:45 A looming financial crisis — and Trump facing a Democratic Congress

1:12:30 Conviction-proof: corruption, pardons, and the GOP's breaking point

1:14:30 No rule of law, desperate workers, and the pitchforks

1:16:00 How we made the wrong moves — and how he came back after January 6th

1:17:00 ToddCast Top 5 most unpopular campaign issues

1:17:45 #5 A candidate endorsed by Donald Trump

1:18:00 #4 Wanting to abolish ICE

1:18:30 #3 Supporting weapons and funding for Israel

1:18:45 #2 Supporting the war in Iran

1:19:15 #1 Supporting for building data centers

1:21:00 Ask Chuck

1:21:15 What prevents a journalist from pivoting during a TV interview?

1:25:15 Advice for helping with kidney stones

1:26:30 What factors are behind Kansas suddenly becoming competitive?

1:33:15 If you could ask Trump one question, what would it be?

1:35:30 Could a future congress pursue financial penalties for pardoned officials?

1:38:00 Shout out to the Nats

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anthony Scaramucci returns to the Chuck ToddCast with All the Wrong Moves, out September 22nd, which argues Trump is a symptom rather than the disease — the product of three decades of bipartisan mistakes: Clinton's China trade deal, Bush waging war while cutting taxes, and Obama's bailout that rescued Wall Street while leaving ordinary families behind. He and Chuck also revisit the private credit questions raised in the ToddCast's Lakers special report, with Scaramucci arguing risky lending simply migrated from banks to private markets and that Mark Walter is likely not an outlier. His predictions are blunt: Trump is effectively conviction-proof, and in Scaramucci's view will try to make tens of billions before pardoning himself and his family — which is why, he warns, if the country doesn't take care of its people, the pitchforks will come out.

Timeline:

00:00 "All the Wrong Moves" and the three decades that produced Trump

02:00 China, the wars, and a bailout that skipped the citizens

05:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier? Private credit and where the risk went

10:00 A looming financial crisis — and Trump facing a Democratic Congress

12:45 Conviction-proof: corruption, pardons, and the GOP's breaking point

14:45 No rule of law, desperate workers, and the pitchforks

16:15 How we made the wrong moves — and how he came back after January 6th

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Six weeks out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Trump's ban of CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House — escalated Monday when the rest of the TV pool refused to cover him without CNN. Chuck, who fought the Obama White House's attempt to cut Fox out of a pool, explains why the real story is why now: a president lashing out as he loses control everywhere else. NBC has Trump at 41%, his second-term low; the Fed just raised rates for the first time since 2023; and the three most toxic positions in NBC's message testing are the three things Trump spent the last ten days amplifying. Chuck argues everyone is probably underestimating Democrats, then turns to the party's own problems: a DNC in debt, a brand that polls worse than the GOP's, and Axios reporting that most former Harris aides don't expect her to run in 2028. Plus JB Pritzker's 80-pound GLP-1 disclosure and Jayden Daniels' devastating elbow injury. 

Timeline:

00:00 Trump bans CNN, MS NOW & Politico — and how the TV pool works

06:00 Why now? A president grabbing what he can control

16:00 Toxic message tests, Iowa defections & a party running from Trump

24:00 Are we underestimating Democrats? Wave, tsunami or mirage

34:00 The Democrats' money problem — the DNC, donors & turnout groups

40:00 Is Kamala Harris running? The Malibu tell and a cycle off

48:00 Pritzker's weight loss, the Democratic brand & the rise of independents

1:00:00 Jayden Daniels, injuries & the college sports bill

1:08:00 NFL chaos, NBA predictability & the case for relegation

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out

11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump

15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low

18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is

24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues

29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa

35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system

39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage 

48:00 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act

49:15 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports

50:45 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983

51:30 Soviet soldier, Petrov,  was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke

55:15 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong

57:45 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events

1:01:00 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere

1:04:30 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain

1:06:45 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain

1:07:30 Ask Chuck

1:07:45 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness?

1:14:30 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”?

1:18:30 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats?

1:21:00 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context?

1:22:45 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media?

1:31:30 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney?

1:35:00 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues we've entered end-stage Trump — the most dangerous phase — as the president lashes out at a reality that keeps refusing to cooperate: raiding the Pentagon to fund his vanity arch, banning news outlets from the White House over coverage he dislikes. The new NBC poll gives him nothing to work with. Trump's approval sits at a second-term low of 41%, 55% say his policies have hurt the economy, and 43% say their congressional vote is meant to signal opposition to him — the highest such share NBC has recorded in three decades of pre-midterm polling. The war is a millstone (62% say it wasn't worth it), data centers are the worst-performing issue of the cycle, and the most popular positions in the survey are taxing billionaires and Medicare for All. Chuck’s read: the midterms are now entirely a referendum on Trump and the wave is showing up in Republican behavior as much as the polling.

Then, Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the story of Soviet soldier Stanislav Petrov correctly identifying a false alarm and preventing a potential nuclear war & the importance of human decision making in an automated system. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and recaps the week in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 Vanity projects, Pentagon money, and a president lashing out

11:00 Banning the press and the danger of end-stage Trump

15:45 Inside the new NBC poll: a second-term low

18:45 Immigration, healthcare, and where the public actually is

24:00 The Iran war and data centers as the cycle's worst issues

29:30 The wave showing up in GOP behavior — and why Kansas may beat Iowa

35:00 Religious tests, the Hungary parallel, and the limits of the system

39:30 Codifying norms and repairing the damage 

51:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast

52:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along

57:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver

1:03:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them

1:09:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if

1:13:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority

1:17:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both

1:26:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition

1:30:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list

1:36:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight

1:45:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out

1:48:45 Chris Simms had excellent rant on the Protect College Sports Act

1:50:00 The conferences & networks don’t want a fair market for college sports

1:51:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 26th, 1983

1:52:15 Soviet soldier, Petrov,  was trying to determine if the US had launched a nuke

1:56:00 Petrov concluded the warning was a false alarm, the machine was wrong

1:58:30 We were fortunate a human was involved in the chain of events

2:01:45 Spoke with Ashley Judd about AI on Noosphere

2:05:15 Humans can’t just be a rubber stamp in the machine’s chain

2:07:30 As we race into AI era, we need to make sure humans are still in the chain

2:08:15 Ask Chuck

2:08:30 Is there a method to John Fetterman’s madness, or is it just madness?

2:15:15 Why can’t Trump’s opponents also “flood the zone”?

2:19:15 Could the speaker refuse to swear in Democrats?

2:21:45 Would incorporating visuals in debate moderation be helpful for context?

2:23:30 Thoughts on Nate Silver joining Crooked Media?

2:32:15 Thoughts on the personal feud between Trump & Mark Carney?

2:35:45 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Louisiana Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast to talk about a state whose bipartisan political culture — he worked productively with Mike Johnson in the statehouse — has been steamrolled by a president who's made clear he doesn't want to work with Democrats at all. Carter notes the irony that a majority of Johnson's own district is Medicaid-dependent in a state that never expanded Medicaid, and that the One Big Beautiful Bill cut it anyway. He argues Democrats lose working-class voters by refusing to speak plain American, that Bill Cassidy would have been tough to beat had he run as an independent rather than losing his primary, and that impeachment without the votes is a fool's errand even as rampant corruption demands answers. Plus: why progressives struggle with Black voters, the flawed SCORE Act, Jeff Landry's LSU mess, and Carter's bill requiring watermarks on AI video.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Congressman Troy Carter joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Louisiana's bipartisan culture and a president who won't play along

06:00 Medicaid, the OBBB cuts, and government that fails to deliver

12:45 How Trump wins working-class voters — and how Democrats lose them

18:00 The House map, surprise flips, and the Cassidy what-if

22:45 What Democrats should do with a governing majority

26:45 Oversight, impeachment, and the limits of both

35:15 Progressives, Black voters, and building a broader coalition

39:30 Procedural rules and Carter's reform wish list

45:45 College sports, the SCORE Act, and the LSU fight

54:00 AI, watermarks, and what Congress has to figure out 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion

09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash

12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers

20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House

28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him

33:00 How an industry captures a government

39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn 

49:00 Ask Chuck

49:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee?

54:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race?

1:02:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers?

1:08:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers?

1:13:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress?

1:19:30 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd charts a Republican Party running out of road: the Fed hiking rates into Trump-driven inflation, JD Vance reduced to a "give us another chance" midterm pitch while Trump insists the economy is great, troops anonymously leaking photos of damaged bases, and seven Republicans now breaking with the president on War Powers. A closed-door House meeting over suspending the federal gas tax turned into what was described as one of the craziest on Capitol Hill — after which Speaker Johnson simply adjourned until after the midterms. Chuck closes with a sharp explainer on how an industry captures a government: crypto pioneered it by spending in primaries rather than on Congress, AI is now running the same operation with more money, and the CLARITY Act's collapse proves the one rule that governs it all — capture only works when it's invisible. 

Then, longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

Sign up link: nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

07:00 Rate hikes, Vance's midterm pitch, and Trump's delusion

09:45 Damaged bases and the growing Iran war backlash

12:45 Republicans breaking ranks on War Powers

20:45 The gas tax meltdown that shut down the House

28:00 Trump's arch and a Congress that won't stop him

33:00 How an industry captures a government

39:00 The CLARITY Act, crypto's undoing, and AI's turn 

52:30 Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast

54:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple

1:02:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban

1:05:45 The Texas GOP's character problem

1:10:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean

1:14:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition

1:24:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war

1:30:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario

1:40:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash

1:55:00 Ask Chuck

1:55:15 Thoughts on Georgia Tech and Tennessee?

2:00:30 Thoughts on the Tennessee senate race?

2:08:45 Was avoiding a debate the right move for Mike Rogers?

2:14:45 How effective can Dems be investigating Trump with one or both chambers?

2:19:00 What can Dems realistically do with control of congress?

2:25:30 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Longtime Texas political reporter Abby Livingston joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why Texas is finally behaving like a purple state — not because the electorate fundamentally changed, but because conditions did. She walks through the state's political geography, 12 years of accumulated Abbott grievances (the school takeover, the unpopular THC ban), and a Republican ticket voters increasingly find embarrassing. Evangelicals are souring on Ken Paxton's character, Talarico yard signs are everywhere while Paxton's are nowhere, and Livingston argues a Talarico win would be a Democratic beachhead — though the winning number is likely under 50%, with a real chance Texas emerges as a three-party state. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Why Texas is finally turning purple

08:00 Abbott fatigue, school takeovers, and the THC ban

11:45 The Texas GOP's character problem

16:15 What a Talarico win would actually mean

20:30 Trump, Latino voters, and the shifting coalition

30:00 A three-party Texas and the GOP's civil war

36:15 The congressional map in a wave scenario

46:15 Camp Mystic, college sports politics, and the UT backlash 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd breaks down a NYT/Siena poll showing Democrats up 8 on the generic ballot and leading independents by 23 — numbers that would mean 25-30 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats, with Trump polling worse than he did before the 2018 wave. He argues the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon damage will take a generation to repair, that Thomas Massie's impeachment articles against Hegseth usefully drag the Iran war back to center stage, and that Republicans in swing areas should cut bait on Trump entirely. He's also furious about JD Vance attacking Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton over how he practices his faith — religious bigotry, Todd argues, and proof Kansas is in play. Plus Trump's claim that the only AI guardrail needed is a "high IQ president," from a man who spent a decade destroying the very trust he's now demanding. 

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 Democratic candidates for president and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 The politicization of DOJ and the damage to federal institutions

12:30 The Kennedy Center tantrum and Trump's messaging problem

15:45 Massie's impeachment articles put the Iran war front and center

22:00 Inside the NYT/Siena poll: +8 generic, +23 with independents

32:30 Why voters under 45 decide wave vs. tsunami

36:30 JD Vance's religious attack on Adam Hamilton

42:45 Trump's AI "high IQ president" guardrail — and why trust is the whole problem

52:45 What social media taught us that we ignored 

1:04:30 Gavin Newsom says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does

1:07:30 Newsom is a savvy politician

1:09:15 Newsom will struggle to overcome California image

1:09:30 ToddCast Top 5 Democratic candidates for president in 2028

1:16:00 Ask Chuck

1:16:15 Could Democrats make solidly red states competitive in this environment?

1:18:30 Thoughts onJames Franklin’s first two outings at Virginia Tech?

1:24:30 Is there a way to make a political donation without ending up on email lists?

1:26:15 Should Dems pursue impeachment if they don’t have votes to convict?

1:29:45 Is it possible the Iran war served Russia’s interests & could it be intentional?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd breaks down a NYT/Siena poll showing Democrats up 8 on the generic ballot and leading independents by 23 — numbers that would mean 25-30 House seats and 4-6 Senate seats, with Trump polling worse than he did before the 2018 wave. He argues the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon damage will take a generation to repair, that Thomas Massie's impeachment articles against Hegseth usefully drag the Iran war back to center stage, and that Republicans in swing areas should cut bait on Trump entirely. He's also furious about JD Vance attacking Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton over how he practices his faith — religious bigotry, Todd argues, and proof Kansas is in play. Plus Trump's claim that the only AI guardrail needed is a "high IQ president," from a man who spent a decade destroying the very trust he's now demanding. 

Disclosure: Chapter is an advertiser on The Chuck ToddCast.

Then, Chapter co-founder and CEO Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain why Medicare enrollment is so punishing — he started the company after watching his own parents struggle, and notes even a Stanford health economics professor found it overwhelming. He walks through what people in their sixties should actually be doing to prepare, why Parts A and B only cover about 80% of costs, how Medicare Advantage works and where its incentives cut against patients, and why the federal government's antiquated technology can't solve this itself. He and Chuck also get into why insurers have no real incentive to keep anyone healthy, and why good produce costing more than a hamburger is the root of so much of it.

Finally, Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 Democratic candidates for president and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 The politicization of DOJ and the damage to federal institutions

12:30 The Kennedy Center tantrum and Trump's messaging problem

15:45 Massie's impeachment articles put the Iran war front and center

22:00 Inside the NYT/Siena poll: +8 generic, +23 with independents

32:30 Why voters under 45 decide wave vs. tsunami

36:30 JD Vance's religious attack on Adam Hamilton

42:45 Trump's AI "high IQ president" guardrail — and why trust is the whole problem

52:45 What social media taught us that we ignored 

1:06:00 Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast

1:07:00 Why Chapter exists and why Medicare is so hard to navigate

1:12:30 What Medicare actually covers — and what it doesn't

1:15:00 Medicare Advantage, denials, and misaligned incentives

1:17:45 Why the government can't build this itself

1:22:15 How Chapter works, and how it makes money

1:30:15 Bipartisan backing and the road ahead

1:39:15 Rebuilding American healthcare from scratch

1:46:00 Gavin Newsom says he won’t run if Kamala Harris does

1:49:00 Newsom is a savvy politician

1:50:45 Newsom will struggle to overcome California image

1:51:00 ToddCast Top 5 Democratic candidates for president in 2028

1:57:30 Ask Chuck

1:57:45 Could Democrats make solidly red states competitive in this environment?

2:00:00 Thoughts onJames Franklin’s first two outings at Virginia Tech?

2:06:00 Is there a way to make a political donation without ending up on email lists?

2:07:45 Should Dems pursue impeachment if they don’t have votes to convict?

2:11:15 Is it possible the Iran war served Russia’s interests & could it be intentional?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Disclosure: Chapter is an advertiser on The Chuck ToddCast.

Chapter co-founder and CEO Cobi Blumenfeld-Gantz joins the Chuck Toddcast to explain why Medicare enrollment is so punishing — he started the company after watching his own parents struggle, and notes even a Stanford health economics professor found it overwhelming. He walks through what people in their sixties should actually be doing to prepare, why Parts A and B only cover about 80% of costs, how Medicare Advantage works and where its incentives cut against patients, and why the federal government's antiquated technology can't solve this itself. He and Chuck also get into why insurers have no real incentive to keep anyone healthy, and why good produce costing more than a hamburger is the root of so much of it.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Why Chapter exists and why Medicare is so hard to navigate

06:30 What Medicare actually covers — and what it doesn't

09:00 Medicare Advantage, denials, and misaligned incentives

11:45 Why the government can't build this itself

16:15 How Chapter works, and how it makes money

24:15 Bipartisan backing and the road ahead

33:15 Rebuilding American healthcare from scratch 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open with a thesis worth marking on a calendar: the next two weeks may be the most consequential stretch of the campaign. Axios data shows Republicans outspending Democrats in every competitive state — $64 million in Texas, $45 million in Ohio — and Chuck's test is specific: if the ads work, Democratic numbers tick down and undecideds tick up by October 1st. His counterweight looks stronger by the day, with diesel at a record, Brent above $109, and the 10-year Treasury touching 5% for the first time since 2023. No amount of super PAC money outruns a gas pump, and he now believes the Iran war will hit these midterms the way Iraq hit 2006 — except as pure economic catastrophe with no upside. Plus: why Texas is an environment problem and not just a Paxton problem, a deep dive into Kansas and the reporting on Roger Marshall's medical-debt lawsuits, why Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas was an accidental confession, JD Vance's rise as Rubio vanishes, a genuinely alarmed conversation about AI and the knowledge gap in Congress, and Ted Cruz getting drowned out on College GameDay. 

Timeline:

00:00 The late-money avalanche & why these two weeks decide everything

10:00 $6 diesel, a bond market on fire & the Iran war as this cycle's Iraq

18:00 Texas, Florida & the rescue mission for Ken Paxton

24:00 Kansas: the debate, the medical-debt story & why Marshall is vulnerable

34:00 Forced pairs — who flips first across Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and Alaska

40:00 The Dallas convention: Vance rising, Rubio missing, Trump promising checks

46:00 AI, the knowledge gap in Congress & a leadership vacuum

56:00 Ted Cruz gets booed, and the case against the college sports bill

66:00 Week one signal vs. noise, monkey picks & the top five

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd connects two crises with the same root: nobody in charge is willing to stop. AI CEOs now openly concede their technology could end humanity — Dario Amodei published an essay arguing development needs to slow down — while the companies pour money into the midterms lobbying to let Washington overrule state regulators, and OpenAI's own models escape a sandbox to hack Hugging Face and cheat on a test. From there Todd maps the GOP's financial advantage state by state, argues Trump's convention cash promises are an admission the working-class economy is a disaster, and warns the Iran war has become a full-blown kitchen table issue with millions of barrels of oil a day offline and diesel at an all-time high. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 1920 Wall Street bombing, one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in American history, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and reacts to the weekend in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 The AI industry admits the danger and builds it anyway

17:30 Can Republican money mitigate a terrible climate?

27:45 Trump's convention, cash promises, and a working-class economy in freefall

32:00 Inflation, the Fed, and the Iran oil shock

39:00 Vance's 2028 advantage and the Trump albatross

42:30 Joe diGenova resigns, and the pile of discarded Trump allies

46:15 Why the Protect College Sports bill is fatally flawed 

56:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 16th, 1920

58:00 The Wall Street Bombing

1:03:15 A. Palmer Mitchell warns of anarchists

1:10:00 Over 30 are killed by the bomb and hundreds are injured

1:16:00 Attacks on lower Manhattan became a symbol for attacks on American power

1:20:30 Ask Chuck

1:20:45 Should politicians avoid using foul language?

1:24:00 If Dems capture both chambers, what could they realistically accomplish?

1:30:00 Rebuilding local public access media via streaming?

1:33:45 Thoughts on the culture of NFL ownership?

1:38:00 College football reaction

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd connects two crises with the same root: nobody in charge is willing to stop. AI CEOs now openly concede their technology could end humanity — Dario Amodei published an essay arguing development needs to slow down — while the companies pour money into the midterms lobbying to let Washington overrule state regulators, and OpenAI's own models escape a sandbox to hack Hugging Face and cheat on a test. From there Todd maps the GOP's financial advantage state by state, argues Trump's convention cash promises are an admission the working-class economy is a disaster, and warns the Iran war has become a full-blown kitchen table issue with millions of barrels of oil a day offline and diesel at an all-time high. 

Then, veteran political strategist Maria Comella — who has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Democrats alike — joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that political consulting has become an industry with no character test left in it. Using the Graham Platner saga as a case study, she and Todd examine what consultants owe voters when they know a candidate's flaws, why the staffer who went public took real guts, and why authenticity isn't a value but merely a descriptor. Comella maps the persuadable Republican electorate heading into 2026, argues Texas is the perfect storm for a statewide Democratic win, and explains why a non-MAGA Republican may be structurally unable to break through in 2028. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 1920 Wall Street bombing, one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in American history, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and reacts to the weekend in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:15 The AI industry admits the danger and builds it anyway

17:30 Can Republican money mitigate a terrible climate?

27:45 Trump's convention, cash promises, and a working-class economy in freefall

32:00 Inflation, the Fed, and the Iran oil shock

39:00 Vance's 2028 advantage and the Trump albatross

42:30 Joe diGenova resigns, and the pile of discarded Trump allies

46:15 Why the Protect College Sports bill is fatally flawed 

58:00 Maria Comella joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:00:00 The Platner saga and the ethics of political consulting

1:08:00 Authenticity, character tests, and what voters will overlook

1:15:00 Going public, the Natalie Harp leaks, and protecting a candidate from himself

1:28:00 Persuadable Republicans and the 2026 battlegrounds

1:39:00 Outside money, data centers, and the AI problem

1:44:30 The 2028 GOP field and the fight for the party's future

1:53:45 Mamdani's first year, Cuomo, and the establishment's failures

2:01:15 ToddCast Time Machine - September 16th, 1920

2:02:45 The Wall Street Bombing

2:08:00 A. Palmer Mitchell warns of anarchists

2:14:45 Over 30 are killed by the bomb and hundreds are injured

2:20:45 Attacks on lower Manhattan became a symbol for attacks on American power

2:25:15 Ask Chuck

2:25:30 Should politicians avoid using foul language?

2:28:45 If Dems capture both chambers, what could they realistically accomplish?

2:34:45 Rebuilding local public access media via streaming?

2:38:30 Thoughts on the culture of NFL ownership?

2:42:45 College football reaction

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Veteran political strategist Maria Comella — who has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Democrats alike — joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that political consulting has become an industry with no character test left in it. Using the Graham Platner saga as a case study, she and Todd examine what consultants owe voters when they know a candidate's flaws, why the staffer who went public took real guts, and why authenticity isn't a value but merely a descriptor. Comella maps the persuadable Republican electorate heading into 2026, argues Texas is the perfect storm for a statewide Democratic win, and explains why a non-MAGA Republican may be structurally unable to break through in 2028. 

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

00:00 The Platner saga and the ethics of political consulting

10:00 Authenticity, character tests, and what voters will overlook

17:00 Going public, the Natalie Harp leaks, and protecting a candidate from himself

30:00 Persuadable Republicans and the 2026 battlegrounds

41:00 Outside money, data centers, and the AI problem

46:30 The 2028 GOP field and the fight for the party's future

55:45 Mamdani's first year, Cuomo, and the establishment's failures

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues AI alarmism just hit its break-glass moment. Jacob Coxon, a researcher who spent three years on pretraining at OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned Tuesday and posted that neither company is acting responsibly — that they're "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives". Chuck had assumed some of this fearmongering was a marketing tactic. He no longer does. His argument is that the public is begging for guardrails while a government that's been bought off or is simply afraid of tech money does nothing, that the tech companies want regulatory capture, and that we have the worst possible president for this moment. We organized globally to prevent nuclear war; we need televised emergency congressional hearings and the same seriousness here.

From there Chuck turns to trust — the connective tissue of the whole episode. Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair, in part because Trump has convinced his supporters that every election he's lost was suspicious. Republicans have to win voters with oil prices at record highs, and unlike Obama, Trump can't credibly blame his predecessor: he inherited a recovery and made it worse. Chuck previews a convention that's a base-turnout exercise rather than a persuasion play, notes Trump's instinct for gimmicks (paying stay-at-home mothers is functionally welfare), and observes that the limited-government wing of the GOP has been fully eviscerated by a party that now wants to coerce social behavior. On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he's blunt about the Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani and argues Muslim participation in American life post-9/11 is largely a good story. The security apparatus worked, intelligence sharing genuinely improved, but emergency powers should have expiration dates, the surveillance watchdog board is effectively defunct, and Congress has abdicated oversight. We traded privacy for security and then got used to it. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

02:00 AI alarmism may have hit its break-glass moment

03:15 The viral resignation post — and the colleagues who confirmed it

04:30 Chuck had assumed some of this was a marketing tactic

05:45 The public is begging government for AI guardrails

07:15 We have the worst possible president for this moment

08:15 We stopped nuclear war globally — we need the same for AI

09:15 Officials are bought off or afraid of tech money

10:00 The tech companies want regulatory capture

13:00 Shouldn't we pause everything to work on this?

16:30 The virality feels like a primal scream from the public

18:30 Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair

21:00 Trump convinced supporters every election he lost was suspicious

23:30 Republicans have to win with oil prices at record highs

26:15 Obama could blame his predecessor — Trump can't

30:00 A convention Trump can only use to talk to his own voters

34:30 Trump's instinct for finding the right gimmick

36:00 Paying stay-at-home moms is basically welfare

38:00 The GOP now wants government to coerce social behavior

40:30 Democrats should have fought harder for the Child Tax Credit

42:30 Friday marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11

44:15 The blatant Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani

47:00 Muslim participation in America post-9/11 is mostly a good story

51:30 We gave up a lot of freedoms — it's time to get them back

54:45 More surveillance power was granted, but oversight never followed

56:30 Emergency powers should have an expiration date

59:30 The surveillance watchdog board is basically defunct

1:03:00 Trust has collapsed, and that's dangerous for a pluralistic society

1:07:15 The terrorists win if we fight each other 

1:14:45 Ask Chuck

1:15:00 Where have you heard a musical performance that left an impression?

1:19:45 Examples of presidents making painful short-term decisions for long-term gain?

1:24:15 Reaction to Sen. Kennedy telling Kristen Welker he likes her better?

1:24:45 Who needs to sell their MLB team first?

1:28:00 Is there more Dems can do to sustain focus to counter Hegseth at the Pentagon?

1:31:45 Any question of which map will be used in Missouri election?

1:35:45 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues AI alarmism just hit its break-glass moment. Jacob Coxon, a researcher who spent three years on pretraining at OpenAI and Anthropic, resigned Tuesday and posted that neither company is acting responsibly — that they're "racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives". Chuck had assumed some of this fearmongering was a marketing tactic. He no longer does. His argument is that the public is begging for guardrails while a government that's been bought off or is simply afraid of tech money does nothing, that the tech companies want regulatory capture, and that we have the worst possible president for this moment. We organized globally to prevent nuclear war; we need televised emergency congressional hearings and the same seriousness here.

From there Chuck turns to trust — the connective tissue of the whole episode. Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair, in part because Trump has convinced his supporters that every election he's lost was suspicious. Republicans have to win voters with oil prices at record highs, and unlike Obama, Trump can't credibly blame his predecessor: he inherited a recovery and made it worse. Chuck previews a convention that's a base-turnout exercise rather than a persuasion play, notes Trump's instinct for gimmicks (paying stay-at-home mothers is functionally welfare), and observes that the limited-government wing of the GOP has been fully eviscerated by a party that now wants to coerce social behavior. On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he's blunt about the Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani and argues Muslim participation in American life post-9/11 is largely a good story. The security apparatus worked, intelligence sharing genuinely improved, but emergency powers should have expiration dates, the surveillance watchdog board is effectively defunct, and Congress has abdicated oversight. We traded privacy for security and then got used to it. 

Then, Lawfare senior editor Molly Roberts joins the Chuck Toddcast to walk through the "rogue clerk" scenario — the theory circulating online that House Republicans could hold power on January 3rd regardless of what voters do in November. Her piece on it has been called the most comprehensive analysis written to date, and her conclusion is genuinely nuanced: this is worth taking seriously without taking it too seriously. The mechanics matter. At noon on January 3rd the old House dissolves and, briefly, there is no House at all — only the clerk, who under 2 U.S.C. § 26 has a ministerial duty to place on the roll only those members whose credentials show they were regularly elected. Ministerial duties are enforceable by mandamus, which means courts can compel compliance before a speaker is ever seated. But the vulnerabilities are real: a speaker can unilaterally fire the clerk and install an acting one, a state certification delayed past January 3rd creates genuine chaos (Missouri is the obvious candidate), and once a speaker is elected the courts will likely bow out. She and Chuck walk through the historical precedents — the 1838 Broad Seal War, the 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" — and land on the reassuring and unsettling truth at once: pulling this off would require an enormous number of people at the state level and in the House conference acting in lockstep, and treating it as a foolproof hack implies it's lawful when it plainly isn't. The realistic ceiling for a rogue clerk isn't a stolen election; it's mayhem. The worry, as Roberts puts it, is that for some people mayhem is more than enough. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

02:00 AI alarmism may have hit its break-glass moment

03:15 The viral resignation post — and the colleagues who confirmed it

04:30 Chuck had assumed some of this was a marketing tactic

05:45 The public is begging government for AI guardrails

07:15 We have the worst possible president for this moment

08:15 We stopped nuclear war globally — we need the same for AI

09:15 Officials are bought off or afraid of tech money

10:00 The tech companies want regulatory capture

13:00 Shouldn't we pause everything to work on this?

16:30 The virality feels like a primal scream from the public

18:30 Only 45% of Americans think the midterms will be fair

21:00 Trump convinced supporters every election he lost was suspicious

23:30 Republicans have to win with oil prices at record highs

26:15 Obama could blame his predecessor — Trump can't

30:00 A convention Trump can only use to talk to his own voters

34:30 Trump's instinct for finding the right gimmick

36:00 Paying stay-at-home moms is basically welfare

38:00 The GOP now wants government to coerce social behavior

40:30 Democrats should have fought harder for the Child Tax Credit

42:30 Friday marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11

44:15 The blatant Islamophobia aimed at Zohran Mamdani

47:00 Muslim participation in America post-9/11 is mostly a good story

51:30 We gave up a lot of freedoms — it's time to get them back

54:45 More surveillance power was granted, but oversight never followed

56:30 Emergency powers should have an expiration date

59:30 The surveillance watchdog board is basically defunct

1:03:00 Trust has collapsed, and that's dangerous for a pluralistic society

1:07:15 The terrorists win if we fight each other 

1:17:30 Molly Roberts joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:18:45 How Lawfare shifted from national security to rule of law

1:19:45 Could the administration steal the midterm elections?

1:22:15 The local certification weirdness that didn't work out

1:24:15 Many states tightened election procedures after 2020

1:25:45 A certification delay past January 3rd is the big "what if"

1:28:45 Why January 3rd is the key date — the 20th Amendment

1:29:30 At noon, the old House dissolves and there is no House

1:31:15 During that window, the clerk is effectively running things

1:33:00 What if Missouri's delegation can't get certified?

1:35:45 A late seating could flip the chamber

1:37:45 The 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th"

1:39:45 If the clerk goes rogue, can courts step in?

1:40:45 Once there's a speaker, the courts likely bow out

1:43:45 The speaker can fire the clerk and install an acting one

1:47:30 The clerk's ministerial duty — and why it's enforceable

1:50:15 Can the House override a state certification?

1:52:45 How many people would have to cooperate to pull this off

1:54:30 The history of the Broad Seal War

1:59:30 Why the Senate is more immune to January 3rd chaos

2:05:30 The decisions that sustained democracy were mostly 52-48

2:06:15 What she tells people who ask "will the midterms be stolen?"

2:09:15 Ask Chuck

2:09:30 Where have you heard a musical performance that left an impression?

2:14:15 Examples of presidents making painful short-term decisions for long-term gain?

2:18:45 Reaction to Sen. Kennedy telling Kristen Welker he likes her better?

2:19:15 Who needs to sell their MLB team first?

2:22:30 Is there more Dems can do to sustain focus to counter Hegseth at the Pentagon?

2:26:15 Any question of which map will be used in Missouri election?

2:30:15 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lawfare senior editor Molly Roberts joins the Chuck Toddcast to walk through the "rogue clerk" scenario — the theory circulating online that House Republicans could hold power on January 3rd regardless of what voters do in November. Her piece on it has been called the most comprehensive analysis written to date, and her conclusion is genuinely nuanced: this is worth taking seriously without taking it too seriously. The mechanics matter. At noon on January 3rd the old House dissolves and, briefly, there is no House at all — only the clerk, who under 2 U.S.C. § 26 has a ministerial duty to place on the roll only those members whose credentials show they were regularly elected. Ministerial duties are enforceable by mandamus, which means courts can compel compliance before a speaker is ever seated. But the vulnerabilities are real: a speaker can unilaterally fire the clerk and install an acting one, a state certification delayed past January 3rd creates genuine chaos (Missouri is the obvious candidate), and once a speaker is elected the courts will likely bow out. She and Chuck walk through the historical precedents — the 1838 Broad Seal War, the 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th" — and land on the reassuring and unsettling truth at once: pulling this off would require an enormous number of people at the state level and in the House conference acting in lockstep, and treating it as a foolproof hack implies it's lawful when it plainly isn't. The realistic ceiling for a rogue clerk isn't a stolen election; it's mayhem. The worry, as Roberts puts it, is that for some people mayhem is more than enough. 

link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. 

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Molly Roberts joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 How Lawfare shifted from national security to rule of law

02:15 Could the administration steal the midterm elections?

04:45 The local certification weirdness that didn't work out

06:45 Many states tightened election procedures after 2020

08:15 A certification delay past January 3rd is the big "what if"

11:15 Why January 3rd is the key date — the 20th Amendment

12:00 At noon, the old House dissolves and there is no House

13:45 During that window, the clerk is effectively running things

15:30 What if Missouri's delegation can't get certified?

18:15 A late seating could flip the chamber

20:15 The 1984 fight over Indiana's "Bloody 8th"

22:15 If the clerk goes rogue, can courts step in?

23:15 Once there's a speaker, the courts likely bow out

26:15 The speaker can fire the clerk and install an acting one

30:00 The clerk's ministerial duty — and why it's enforceable

32:45 Can the House override a state certification?

35:15 How many people would have to cooperate to pull this off

37:00 The history of the Broad Seal War

42:00 Why the Senate is more immune to January 3rd chaos

48:00 The decisions that sustained democracy were mostly 52-48

48:45 What she tells people who ask "will the midterms be stolen?"

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections

04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire

05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races

06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party

08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range

09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH

11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans

13:30 Missouri election map battle risks disenfranchising voters

14:00 Federal court puts temporary restraining order on the map

14:45 Missouri Republicans drew new maps to achieve 7-1 or 8-0 result

15:45 Voters collected enough signatures for referendum on map

16:30 Missouri secretary of state delayed until day of primary election

18:30 State Supreme Court unanimously ruled new map didn’t take effect

19:30 The old map is still in effect, but primary voters voted on the new map

20:15 SCOTUS declined to intervene, it’s a state issue

21:00 After SCOTUS decision, federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction

23:45 The electoral process in Missouri has been thrown into chaos

25:15 Secretary of state created this mess with partisan hackery

26:30 Texas was in a similar situation in 1996, held a special election

29:30 The special election is the fairest way to resolve this problem

31:30 There could be voter backlash to the redistricting effort

33:30 Dan Osborne trying to pull off a difficult balancing act in Nebraska

34:45 Osborne admits there’s a difference between campaigning & governing

36:30 Dem candidate in Ohio joked he’d lie to voters about being DSA

37:45 Hitting your opponent with their own words is highly effective

40:30 Trump is doing everything he can to screw up the Kansas economy

42:00 NYT reports Roger Marshall sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills

42:45 Some of the debts were small, in the hundreds of dollars

43:30 Later, Marshall voted to limit hospitals’ ability to collect debts

44:30 Damaging material doesn’t randomly appear on a reporter’s desk

45:30 Report raises a character & empathy question about Marshall

48:15 Story also raises questions about the state of U.S. healthcare

50:15 Timing of the story could seriously impact the election

56:30 ToddCast Top 5 red states where Dems could sweep statewide

1:00:00 #5 Florida

1:01:15 #4 Kansas

1:03:30 #3 Iowa

1:06:15 #2 Texas

1:09:15 #1 Ohio

1:12:00 Ask Chuck

1:12:15 How would history be different if we treated 9/11 as criminal acts rather than war?

1:19:30 Do voters have recourse if an elected official is refusing to do the job?

1:23:30 Why do you shy away from using racism as a voting motive?

1:29:30 If the senate ties 50-50 & one becomes incapacitated, does the chamber flip?

1:33:30 As a Steelers fan, which college QB should I be keeping an eye on?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd reads the New Hampshire results as a straightforward establishment win — the progressive dog didn't bark, outside groups largely stayed out, and Jeanne Shaheen's decades of organization-building still define the state party. He expects a four-to-six point Senate race and would be surprised, though not shocked, if it flipped, since Sununu's politics run a bit conservative for New Hampshire. Then he turns to the redistricting chaos in Missouri, where the state's electoral process has been thrown into genuine disarray: Secretary of State Denny Hoskins sat on 300,000 referendum signatures until primary election day before rejecting them, the state Supreme Court unanimously ruled the 2025 map never took effect and ordered November run on the old lines with the new map going to a statewide vote with the August primary already conducted on a map that isn't law. Chuck argues Hoskins created this mess through partisan hackery, points to Texas in 1996 as precedent, and says a special election would be the fairest resolution. He also flags Dan Osborn's tricky balancing act in Nebraska, and a New York Times report that Roger Marshall's practice sued roughly 700 patients over unpaid medical bills — some for just a few hundred dollars — before he later voted to limit hospitals' collection powers. Chuck’s read: damaging material doesn't land on a reporter's desk by accident, the timing could matter enormously in a race Democrats have put in play.

Then, Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career.

The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 potential red state sweeps for the Democrats and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 The establishment got its way in NH primary elections

04:45 The progressive dog didn’t bark in New Hampshire

05:15 Outside groups mostly stayed out of NH races

06:45 Jeanne Shaheen built & basically is the NH Democratic Party

08:15 NH senate race will likely be in a 4-6 point range

09:45 Sununu’s politics are a bit conservative for NH

11:30 Would be surprised but not shocked if NH senate goes Republicans

13:30 Missouri election map battle risks disenfranchising voters

14:00 Federal court puts temporary restraining order on the map

14:45 Missouri Republicans drew new maps to achieve 7-1 or 8-0 result

15:45 Voters collected enough signatures for referendum on map

16:30 Missouri secretary of state delayed until day of primary election

18:30 State Supreme Court unanimously ruled new map didn’t take effect

19:30 The old map is still in effect, but primary voters voted on the new map

20:15 SCOTUS declined to intervene, it’s a state issue

21:00 After SCOTUS decision, federal judge in Missouri issued an injunction

23:45 The electoral process in Missouri has been thrown into chaos

25:15 Secretary of state created this mess with partisan hackery

26:30 Texas was in a similar situation in 1996, held a special election

29:30 The special election is the fairest way to resolve this problem

31:30 There could be voter backlash to the redistricting effort

33:30 Dan Osborne trying to pull off a difficult balancing act in Nebraska

34:45 Osborne admits there’s a difference between campaigning & governing

36:30 Dem candidate in Ohio joked he’d lie to voters about being DSA

37:45 Hitting your opponent with their own words is highly effective

40:30 Trump is doing everything he can to screw up the Kansas economy

42:00 NYT reports Roger Marshall sued 700 patients for unpaid medical bills

42:45 Some of the debts were small, in the hundreds of dollars

43:30 Later, Marshall voted to limit hospitals’ ability to collect debts

44:30 Damaging material doesn’t randomly appear on a reporter’s desk

45:30 Report raises a character & empathy question about Marshall

48:15 Story also raises questions about the state of U.S. healthcare

50:15 Timing of the story could seriously impact the election

59:00 Anthony Tommasini joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:01:15 The origin of "Voice of a Century"

1:03:00 Marian Anderson as barrier breaker

1:05:15 Conscripted into the church choir at age six

1:08:00 Anderson became popular in Europe first

1:10:00 Promoters practically whitewashed her race to sell her

1:11:30 Why she never learned Italian

1:14:30 If born 30 years later, she'd have sung opera

1:17:30 Seeing Roland Hayes and the epiphany that followed

1:18:15 She wanted to be a great artist, not a civil rights activist

1:19:15 Denied a hotel room, invited to stay with Albert Einstein

1:21:30 Why she came back to America instead of staying in Europe

1:25:45 Ending every recital with negro spirituals

1:29:30 The Lincoln Memorial concert and the nerves behind it

1:36:00 What Anderson meant as a model for the Black community

1:37:45 Two Anderson recordings everyone should hear

1:43:30 The state of classical music in 2026

1:47:00 Why classical music has to be experienced live

1:52:45 The premiere symphony to attend in America

1:56:00 "Voice of a Century" is out September 8th

1:56:30 ToddCast Top 5 red states where Dems could sweep statewide

2:00:00 #5 Florida

2:01:15 #4 Kansas

2:03:30 #3 Iowa

2:06:15 #2 Texas

2:09:15 #1 Ohio

2:12:00 Ask Chuck

2:12:15 How would history be different if we treated 9/11 as criminal acts rather than war?

2:19:30 Do voters have recourse if an elected official is refusing to do the job?

2:23:30 Why do you shy away from using racism as a voting motive?

2:29:30 If the senate ties 50-50 & one becomes incapacitated, does the chamber flip?

2:33:30 As a Steelers fan, which college QB should I be keeping an eye on?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Anthony Tommasini — chief classical music critic for the New York Times from 2000 to 2021 — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Voice of a Century: The Life and Artistry of Marian Anderson, out September 8th as part of the Significations series curated by Henry Louis Gates Jr. Tommasini didn't seek the project; he was asked to write it. His argument is that Anderson has been flattened into two civil rights milestones — the 1939 Lincoln Memorial concert before 75,000 people after the DAR barred her from Constitution Hall, and breaking the Met's color line — when the reason she mattered in the first place was the voice. He describes her extraordinary range, her European breakthrough (and the promoters who essentially whitewashed her race to sell her), her decision not to learn Italian because she knew American opera was closed to her, and the fact that had she been born thirty years later she'd have had an opera career.

The human material is remarkable: conscripted into a church choir at six, largely self-taught at piano, denied a hotel room and put up by Albert Einstein, who became a friend and pushed her to speak out more than she wanted to. Anderson's aim was to be a great artist, not an activist. They also get into the state of classical music in 2026 — why symphonies are so expensive to sustain, why live performance can't be replicated, and which American orchestra he'd send you to first.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

00:00 Anthony Tommasini joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:15 The origin of "Voice of a Century"

04:00 Marian Anderson as barrier breaker

06:15 Conscripted into the church choir at age six

09:00 Anderson became popular in Europe first

11:00 Promoters practically whitewashed her race to sell her

12:30 Why she never learned Italian

15:30 If born 30 years later, she'd have sung opera

18:30 Seeing Roland Hayes and the epiphany that followed

19:15 She wanted to be a great artist, not a civil rights activist

20:15 Denied a hotel room, invited to stay with Albert Einstein

22:30 Why she came back to America instead of staying in Europe

26:45 Ending every recital with negro spirituals

30:30 The Lincoln Memorial concert and the nerves behind it

37:00 What Anderson meant as a model for the Black community

38:45 Two Anderson recordings everyone should hear

44:30 The state of classical music in 2026

48:00 Why classical music has to be experienced live

53:45 The premiere symphony to attend in America

57:00 "Voice of a Century" is out September 8th

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande sit down with ESPN’s Paul Finebaum and dive into Alabama football.

Finebaum shares his perspective on Bear Bryant’s complicated legacy and the integration of Alabama football, explains why Nick Saban succeeded where so many post-Bryant coaches failed, and reveals how Saban established total control over the program from the moment he arrived in Tuscaloosa.

Plus, Finebaum offers a warning about Alabama’s future.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Eight Tuesdays out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on the first midterm convention in modern American history — two nights at Dallas's American Airlines Center with 109 speakers, Trump appearing both nights, and House members getting billed $25,000 to attend. The guys are skeptical of nearly all of it: the event lands on NFL kickoff night, it butts up against the 25th anniversary of September 11th, and Politico found 45 of 70 Republican candidates and members skipping it. Their sharper point is that the whole thing is a microcosm of the party's bind — you cannot win without the MAGA base, and you cannot win with only the MAGA base — which is why swing-state nominees like Jon Husted and Mike Rogers will show up and try very hard to deliver a forgettable speech. Chuck argues nationalizing the election isn't crazy on its own terms, since the other side is going to run against Trump anyway, but doubts Trump can hit any register besides red meat, and doubts even more that he can find a second gear for the September 11th anniversary the following day.

From there they dig into Texas, where MAGA Inc's first $10 million buy is running a half-negative, half-positive ad about taxes — a signal, Chuck says, that they know the target is suburban Romney Republicans, not the base. He walks through Greg Abbott's steadily declining margins, the four-to-eight-point scandal penalty that history says attaches to a candidate like Paxton, and lands somewhere that surprises Chris: he now likes Talarico's odds better than Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. They check the prediction markets, unpack the Missouri Supreme Court ruling that blocked the Republican-drawn map and effectively hands Emanuel Cleaver his seat back, and take apart Trump's request that the Supreme Court impose a national check on mail voting — a policy every Republican strategist will tell you privately hurts their own side. Then a long, unsparing conversation about the Wall Street Journal's reporting on John Fetterman and what it means for control of the Senate on January 3rd, a real case for a third Senate conference built around Murkowski and a possible independent, and a closing riff on Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, and why the Protect College Sports Act is doomed without collective bargaining.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Eight Tuesdays out — and why they actually prepare for these now

03:00 The first midterm convention since the early '80s 

04:00 $25,000 a head, and Tim Burchett's surprise invoice

05:00 It lands on the opening night of the NFL season

07:00 The Trump trap — you can't afford to say no

08:00 Nationalizing the election isn't the crazy part

11:00 The convention as a microcosm of the GOP's whole problem

13:00 "Trumpapalooza" — so what's the actual message?

14:00 Conventions aren't for swing voters, and never have been

16:00 Husted, Rogers & the art of the deliberately forgettable speech

19:00 Trump as TV producer — and the 9/11 anniversary the next day

20:00 Will he turn the 25th anniversary into a political speech?

23:00 MAGA Inc's first $10M buy lands in Texas

26:00 They tried calling Talarico weird. It didn't take.

27:00 Trump throws Paxton under the bus in the Oval

29:00 Abbott's slipping margins and the blue tsunami scenario

31:00 South Texas Latinos appear to be shifting back

33:00 Clinton lost Texas by less than she lost Iowa in 2016

34:00 Blue-collar trade unions and the industrial Midwest problem

38:00 Trump asks the Supreme Court for a national mail-voting check

39:00 The rural voters his own rule would punish hardest

42:00 Democrats at 85-88% to take the House

43:00 The Missouri ruling

46:00 Why this is anti-voter, full stop

47:00 The Senate sits at 52-48 Republican. A year ago it was 71-29.

49:00 Alaska, and Dan Sullivan's troubling primary numbers

51:00 The Wall Street Journal's Fetterman story

54:00 The practical stakes: who controls the Senate on January 3rd

55:00 Does Fetterman leave the party?

58:00 He's already built the intellectual case for walking

1:00:00 January 3rd is the whole ballgame

1:02:00 Osborn, Bodner, Banks and the independent wave

1:03:00 The real case for a third Senate conference

1:05:00 Saban and McAfee push the Protect College Sports Act

1:07:00 No labor at the table means it dies in court

1:08:00 Ashley Moody's quiet ACC poison pill

1:12:00 The Nats chase the blown-save record. Sell the team.

1:13:00 Dynastic: Finebaum on why Alabama may not run it back

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.

He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day

04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult

06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big

07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?

08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance

09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats

11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat

12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started

14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors

15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans

16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates

18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018

19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance

21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election

23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?

25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise

27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent

29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem

31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?

33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance

34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable

36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through

37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument

38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off

41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami

42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?

46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out

49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman

50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?

52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?

52:45 College football week one recap 

1:15:00 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974

1:15:30 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake

1:16:15 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon

1:17:00 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?

1:17:45 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support

1:18:45 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew

1:19:30 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over

1:21:00 Why did Ford get to decide how much accountability we received

1:22:00 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it

1:22:45 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon

1:24:30 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?

1:26:00 The alternative paths Ford could have taken

1:27:30 Ford didn’t intend for investigations of others to stop

1:29:30 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed

1:31:00 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon

1:34:00 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon

1:35:30 Major backlash to the pardon

1:36:00 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing

1:40:30 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents

1:43:30 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last

1:43:45 Ask Chuck

1:44:00 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?

1:48:15 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?

1:53:15 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?

1:58:00 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?

2:01:30 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the fall campaign officially underway after Labor Day, Chuck Todd lays out three scenarios for November and assigns odds to each. A blue mirage (15%) — Democrats still take the House but net only two Senate seats, saved by Republican money from tech and crypto, because you can't buy a new national mood but you can absolutely save individual candidates. A blue wave (50%), the 2006 comparison, where individual races start behaving like one national election and Democrats win everything reasonable. And a blue tsunami (30-35%), where Texas and Florida governorships come into play, independents break hard, and MAGA voters stay home. What separates a wave from a tsunami, Todd argues, is whether corruption breaks through as a voting issue — and data centers may be the most tangible way in. The problem for Democrats remains what it's been all year: they're as unpopular as Republicans, they don't have an obvious agenda, and releasing one risks dividing the party — though not releasing one carries its own risk.

He also flags the Missouri map being tossed by the state supreme court, notes the redistricting chaos Republicans started, previews a GOP midterm convention that's purely a base-turnout exercise many candidates may skip, and closes on John Fetterman. The Wall Street Journal report — sourced to more than a dozen former staffers and colleagues plus internal texts — details skipped committee hearings, blown-off constituent meetings, and reluctance to attend police funerals. Fetterman calls it a smear job from disgruntled staffers. His question isn't about the reporting: it's whether Fetterman is still a Democrat come January 2027, and which side of the aisle he and Lisa Murkowski end up sitting on. He also weighs in on week one in college football.

Then, Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond.

The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Gerald Ford’s decision to pardon Richard Nixon and why the conventional wisdom of it being the right decision… is wrong. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd's introduction

03:30 Fall campaign season kicks off after Labor Day

04:15 Why polling New Hampshire is so difficult

06:45 Democrats have a midterm advantage — the question is how big

07:30 Blue mirage, blue wave, or blue tsunami?

08:00 Evaluating the blue mirage — 15% chance

09:30 Under a mirage, Dems probably net only two Senate seats

11:30 Missouri map thrown out, could add a Democratic seat

12:30 The redistricting wars Republicans started

14:30 Dems raise better online, the GOP has the big-dollar donors

15:45 Tech and crypto money is flowing to Republicans

16:45 You can't buy a national mood, but you can save candidates

18:15 Both parties are equally unpopular — unlike 2018

19:15 Evaluating the blue wave — 50% chance

21:00 In a wave, individual races behave like a national election

23:15 How will the midterm GOP convention play out?

25:15 The convention is purely a base turnout exercise

27:00 Trump does better as an outsider than as an incumbent

29:15 Data centers have become a real political problem

31:00 The problem for Democrats: what are they actually offering?

33:15 Evaluating the blue tsunami — 30-35% chance

34:45 In a tsunami, Texas and Florida governorships are winnable

36:30 For a tsunami, corruption has to break through

37:30 Data centers may be the way into the corruption argument

38:45 The public is telling the tech industry to F off

41:45 If corruption becomes a voting issue, the wave becomes a tsunami

42:45 Will socialism and DSA attacks actually scare independents?

46:15 Independents will decide which scenario plays out

49:15 The WSJ report on John Fetterman

50:45 Will Fetterman still be a Democrat in January 2027?

52:15 Which side of the aisle will Fetterman and Murkowski sit on?

52:45 College football week one recap 

1:16:30 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:18:45 Assessing the bifurcated economy

1:19:15 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed

1:20:45 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due

1:22:15 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?

1:25:30 Could the bust come when government can't respond?

1:26:30 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years

1:28:45 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032

1:30:00 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done

1:31:45 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start

1:33:30 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?

1:35:15 An epic amount of oversight is coming

1:36:15 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump

1:38:45 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress

1:41:00 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands

1:43:00 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul

1:45:15 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age

1:47:30 How should big tech make the case for data centers?

1:50:30 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated

1:53:30 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public

1:55:30 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie

1:58:45 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?

2:05:45 What Walmart got right about storytelling

2:07:00 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50

2:09:30 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?

2:11:00 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board

2:13:00 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama

2:16:30 ToddCast Time Machine - September 8th, 1974

2:17:00 Gerald Ford pardons Richard Nixon… a huge mistake

2:17:45 Ford earned a profile in courage award for pardoning Nixon

2:18:30 Did Ford’s pardon undermine the rule of law?

2:19:15 Nixon resigned because he lost his political support

2:20:15 Gerald Ford was never elected, he replaced Spiro Agnew

2:21:00 Ford declared our long national nightmare was over

2:23:30 There was a serious potential criminal case & pardon stopped it

2:24:15 Why Ford did have a valid argument for giving the pardon

2:26:00 It was not an easy call, Ford prioritized stability… but what was lost?

2:27:30 The alternative paths Ford could have taken

2:31:00 The normal pardon process wasn’t followed

2:32:30 Ford faced serious questions from congress about the pardon

2:35:30 Majority of the country supported prosecuting Nixon

2:37:00 Major backlash to the pardon

2:37:30 Eventually people thought Ford did the right thing

2:42:00 Ford created a serious dilemma for future presidents

2:45:00 We have the most corrupt president now because we punted on the last

2:45:15 Ask Chuck

2:45:30 Could AR-02 be won by Democrats in a wave year?

2:49:45 Why do voters support candidates that conflict with their economic interests?

2:54:45 What if a president was aggressive as Trump in doing things that are popular?

2:59:30 Would expanding the house restore power to members and committees?

3:03:00 How can Dems break through to working class & right leaning white voters?

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Bruce Mehlman — founding partner of the bipartisan Mehlman Consulting and the man behind the quarterly slide decks that circulate through half of official Washington — joins the Chuck Toddcast to assess a bifurcated economy and the bills coming due. Millennials are wealthier than their parents were at this age but far more stressed, housing is inflated by a supply shortage, and the central question hanging over everything is whether AI pays off before the investment bill comes due. Mehlman notes the dot-com bubble produced real productivity gains and still burst, and the harder worry isn't the bust itself but whether it arrives at a moment when government can't respond: the national debt has doubled from $20 trillion to $40 trillion in a decade, the Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032, and there's no political courage to touch any of it — because in a system where bipartisanship reads as betrayal, nothing gets done. His modest starting point: a 3% tax increase paired with a 3% spending cut.

The back half turns to how business is bracing for a Democratic Congress. Mehlman says the business community knows the pendulum always swings, and an epic wave of oversight is coming — complicated by an OLC position that executive privilege extends to anyone who speaks with Trump, meaning everything gets litigated to the Supreme Court while companies weigh the risk of contempt. On Trump's pay-to-play demands, he argues there are usually paths to alignment without selling your soul, and notes wealthy individuals now carry more political punching power than corporations do. He's especially sharp on data centers, where polling shows tech, AI, and social media all deeply underwater and the backlash is "where Bannon meets Bernie" — the perception being that AI benefits only billionaires and shareholders. The fix is making local benefits visible, and finding a communicator who isn't a CEO, since tech executives are now viewed as villains. His prediction: the House flips and the Senate lands 50-50 — with Michigan the most interesting race on the board, because an El-Sayed win keeps DSA energy alive and makes AOC the 2028 frontrunner.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Bruce Mehlman joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:15 Assessing the bifurcated economy

02:45 Millennials are wealthier than their parents — and more stressed

04:15 We need AI to pay off before the investment bill comes due

05:45 Is the AI bubble the railroads or the dot com boom?

09:00 Could the bust come when government can't respond?

10:00 From $20T to $40T in national debt in ten years

12:15 Social Security and Medicare trusts run dry in 2032

13:30 If bipartisanship is seen as betrayal, nothing gets done

15:15 A 3% tax increase and 3% spending cut would be a start

17:00 How is the business community preparing for a Democratic Congress?

18:45 An epic amount of oversight is coming

19:45 OLC claims executive privilege covers anyone who talks to Trump

22:15 Companies won't risk contempt of Congress

24:30 Advising clients on Trump's pay-to-play demands

26:30 There are paths to alignment without selling your soul

28:45 We need reforms to get out of this Gilded Age

31:00 How should big tech make the case for data centers?

34:00 Voters are open to data centers if harms are mitigated

37:00 Tech CEOs are viewed as villains by the public

39:00 The data center backlash is where Bannon meets Bernie

42:15 Is there anyone in Silicon Valley who can sell this?

49:15 What Walmart got right about storytelling

50:30 Prediction: the House flips and the Senate goes 50-50

53:00 If it's 50-50 and Alaska flips… what does Murkowski do?

54:30 Michigan is the most interesting race on the board

56:30 The bull case for James Talarico is Roy Moore in Alabama

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.