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FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

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Episodes

The Biden Presidency Begins

On the first podcast episode of the Biden presidency, the crew reacts to President Biden's inauguration speech -- particularly whether any attempt to unite the country will be successful -- and looks at what his policy plans are for his first week in office.
2021-01-20
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Did Trump Change The Rules Of Politics?

This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. The crew, joined by ABC News White House Correspondent Karen Travers, discusses Trump's legacy, how he changed politics and what the lasting effects will be.
2021-01-19
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Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment

On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 232-197 to impeach President Trump a second time. In this installment of the podcast, HuffPost's polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy, joined Galen and Perry to discuss why the vote broke down the way it did, what the different camps within the GOP are and what happens next.
2021-01-14
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What Led To The Attack On The Capitol

The crew unpacks some of the elements responsible for the attack on the U.S. Capitol. They also discuss the calculations being made by Democrats and Republicans about how to hold President Trump legally and/or politically accountable for the attack.
2021-01-12
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What Will The GOP Do Now?

The team reacts to Trump supporters violently occupying the U.S. Capitol and the Democratic victories in Georgia.
2021-01-07
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Trump's Fraud Obsession May Hurt The GOP In Georgia

The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Tia Mitchell joins the crew to discuss why Republicans are attempting to overturn the election. They also check in on the state of the runoffs in Georgia the day before Election Day.
2021-01-04
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Goodbye To 2020

In 2020's final installment of the podcast, the crew looks back at the year that was. They consider the most surprising political stories of the year, fess up to what they think they got right (or wrong) and answer questions from listeners. They also assess whether many pollsters' decision to sit out the Georgia Senate runoffs is a "good or bad use of polling."
2020-12-29
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Why Georgia Isn't Like Other Battleground States

The crew debates whether the recent $900 billion stimulus package is a one-off attempt to avert crisis or a model for compromise in the Washington that President-Elect Biden is inheriting. They also discuss what makes the runoff elections in Georgia different from elections in other battleground states and what we can learn about the Biden administration and the Democratic Party from his cabinet picks so far.
2020-12-22
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What Do 1,200 Books About Trump Really Tell Us?

Carlos Lozada, the nonfiction book critic at the Washington Post, speaks with Galen Druke about what he learned from reading many of the books written about Trump from the past five years.
2020-12-17
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Why Republicans Still Doubt The Election Results

The two biggest stories of 2020 in the U.S. -- the pandemic and the election -- are finding some closure today, though each is really just entering its next phase. The conflicts and challenges presented by both the pandemic and President Trump?s attempts to overturn the election are not over.
2020-12-15
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What's The Deal With Pardons?

Galen speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about why presidents have the power to pardon, how that power has been used historically and how Trump's record compares.
2020-12-10
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The Electoral Challenges Facing The GOP

The November election was the seventh time in eight elections that Republicans lost the national popular vote and was a rare loss for an incumbent president. In this installment of the podcast, the crew asks why President Trump lost and considers the challenges facing the Republican Party electorally. They also check in on FiveThirtyEight's newly launched polling average of the Senate runoff elections in Georgia.
2020-12-09
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How To Make Polls Better

Galen Druke speaks with two A+ rated pollsters, J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray, about how they view the challenges of polling and what can be done about them.
2020-12-04
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What Happened To Down-Ballot Democrats?

The crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races. They also ask whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before Trump has even left the White House.
2020-12-01
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Trump Is Setting A Dangerous Precedent For American Democracy

Three weeks after the election, President Trump is still refusing to concede and making attempts to subvert the results of the election. The team discusses the extent to which these anti-democratic efforts have been successful and what precedent they set going forward. They also consider the politics surrounding the current surge in coronavirus cases and ask what pollsters should do about falling response rates.
2020-11-24
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Will Georgia Stay Blue?

Galen Druke speaks with FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution to understand the trends that flipped Georgia blue and how durable they are.
2020-11-19
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What Divided The Electorate In 2020

The crew explores the demographic and geographic trends that divided the nation in 2020. They also ask how President Trump's refusal to concede the election will affect the nation.
2020-11-17
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Model Talk: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren?t That Bad

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn't that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.
2020-11-12
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Where The Rest Of The 2020 Races Stand

The crew reviews who is leading in the outstanding races and how the two parties are reacting to the results. They also discuss what positive vaccine news could mean for Biden's first term.  
2020-11-09
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Biden Is Set To Be The Next President

The crew reacts to the news that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the projected winners of the 2020 election.
2020-11-07
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Biden Could Soon Win Pennsylvania ? And The Presidency

As votes continue to be counted in five key battleground states, and as Biden's margins continue to improve, it looks very likely that the presidential race will eventually be called for Biden. In this installment of the podcast, the crew shares an update on where votes are still coming in and what to make of the overall results at this point.
2020-11-06
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Biden's Path To Victory Is Looking Clearer

After our colleagues at ABC News projected Joe Biden as the winner in Michigan, the former vice president's path to victory is looking clearer. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the results so far, what's left to come in, and some of the trends in the data. They also begin to answer questions about polling errors in the 2020 election.
2020-11-05
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The Election Isn't Over

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast reacts to the results so far on election night 2020.
2020-11-04
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Final Reflections Before The Election

In the final pre-election installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes a final look at the data, reflects on the stories that have defined the 2020 campaign and shares their guide of what to follow on election night.
2020-11-03
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What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us

Many pollsters released their final polls of the 2020 election over the weekend. In this installment of the podcast, the crew analyzes what the recent data tells us about the state of the race in its final days.
2020-11-01
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How To Vote Safely In A Pandemic

Our colleagues at PODCAST-19 look at the precautions states have taken to make sure people can vote safely during the coronavirus pandemic. Make sure to subscribe to PODCAST-19 wherever you get your podcasts.
2020-10-31
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Model Talk: There Still Isn't Evidence Of 'Shy' Trump Voters

This is the final(!) pre-election installment of "Model Talk." Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how the latest polling has shifted in some of the key battleground states. They also address whether there is any reason to believe that "shy Trump voters" could provide the president with an upset win on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn't.)
2020-10-30
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The Under-Covered Stories Of The 2020 Election

There are only five days remaining until Election Day and former Vice President Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the state of the race and also considers which important stories have been under-covered by the press during the 2020 campaign.
2020-10-29
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How We Expect The Electorate To Look In 2020

In this installment of the podcast, the crew takes a closer look at who exactly is voting and how their preferences have changed or stayed the same compared with four years ago.
2020-10-28
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How The Media Projects The Winner Of An Election

Galen Druke speaks with the Executive Director of Elections at ABC News, Dan Merkle, who oversees the network's Decision Desk. Merkle explains how ABC News will go about projecting the winner of individual states and the overall presidential race, as well as when we might be able to expect those projections.
2020-10-27
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October Surprises Don't Usually Decide Elections

The crew discusses this year's October surprises and the likelihood that a late development could shake up the race for president.
2020-10-27
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Model Talk: National And District-Level Polls Disagree

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss why national, state and district-level polls are showing different levels of competitiveness in the 2020 election. They also answer listener questions.
2020-10-24
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The Second Debate Is Over And The Final Stage Of The Campaign Is Here

The crew reacts to the second and final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign.
2020-10-23
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How Voting Is Going So Far

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich join the podcast to discuss how voting laws and procedures have changed ahead of the 2020 vote and how they are being litigated.
2020-10-22
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The Most Competitive Races In 2020

Micah Cohen and Sarah Frostenson key in on the most competitive races in the 2020 election. They are not actually in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even though those states may be the most important for winning the election.
2020-10-21
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Embrace The Uncertainty

The crew discusses how Biden's lead is similar or different from Clinton's in 2016. They also consider what kind of agenda Democrats might pursue were they to win full control of government this fall.
2020-10-20
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Model Talk: Why Democrats' Chances Of Winning The Senate Have Increased

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.
2020-10-17
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What We Learned From The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings

Judge Amy Coney Barrett is on track to become the next Supreme Court Justice. Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss what we learned from her nomination hearings and how she would shape the Court.
2020-10-16
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The Sun Belt Could Decide Control Of The Senate

The crew looks at the state of the 2020 race in the Sun Belt states and also considers how Trump might be able to pull off a re-election win.
2020-10-13
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Model Talk: Trump's Position Worsens

In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latests movements in the 2020 election forecasts.
2020-10-09
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Pence And Harris Evade Questions In VP Debate

The crew reacts to the first and only vice presidential debate.
2020-10-08
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What We Know About The President's Health

During the four days since President Trump was diagnosed with coronavirus, the public has received limited and conflicting information about his health status. To make sense of the limited information we do have, the crew spoke with emergency room doctor Craig Spencer and presidential scholar Lara Brown.
2020-10-05
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Emergency Podcast: Trump Tests Positive For COVID-19

The podcast team reacts to the news that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
2020-10-02
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Is The Supreme Court Losing Legitimacy?

In response to Republicans' move to fill a Supreme Court vacancy so close to the election, some Democrats have floated the idea of expanding or restructuring the court. In this installment of the podcast, law professor Daniel Epps speaks with Galen Druke about whether the legitimacy of the Supreme Court is in jeopardy and what kinds of reforms activists and scholars are considering.
2020-10-01
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Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In First Debate

The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.
2020-09-30
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The Politics Of Trump's Tax Returns

The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Trump paid $750 dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017, and no federal income tax during ten of the previous fifteen years due to reported business losses. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew weighs the potential political implications of the report.
2020-09-29
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Trump Refuses To Commit To A Peaceful Transfer Of Power

In this emergency episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the news that President Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the 2020 election.
2020-09-24
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What Comes Next In The Fight To Fill Ginsburg?s Seat

So far, two Republican Senators -- Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski -- have announced their opposition to filling the Supreme Court seat that once belonged to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg prior to the 2020 election. In this installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats over how to proceed in replacing Ginsburg.
2020-09-22
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Emergency Podcast: The SCOTUS Vacancy

In this emergency installment of the podcast, the crew discusses the implications of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's passing and the new vacancy on the court.
2020-09-19
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Model Talk: Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate

FiveThirtyEight has launched its 2020 Senate forecast model. In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the odds the chamber will flip.
2020-09-18
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