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FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.


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It's Not Just The Economy, Stupid

After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also discuss the potential consequences of President Trump casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
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A GOP Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump

Rep. Will Hurd of Texas?s 23rd Congressional District joins the podcast. He is one of only four Republicans in the House still representing a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and he is the only Black Republican in the chamber. He is also retiring at the end of his current term. As he says on the podcast, he is not yet sure whether he will vote for President Trump this fall.
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Biden's VP Pick Could Be Days Away

According to the timeframe Biden laid out, he could announce his choice for a running mate as soon as the end of this week. The crew discusses the upsides and downsides of his various choices.
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The U.S. Still Isn't Prepared For A Pandemic Election

In March, it became clear that states needed to reconfigure in-person voting and significantly scale up mail voting so that Americans could vote during a pandemic. Since then, we?ve seen postponed elections, consolidated polling places, long lines, mail ballots that never reached voters, and long delays in counting those ballots. Will the U.S. be ready in November?
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There Aren't Secret Trump Voters

A recent poll showed that the majority of Pennsylvanians think that people in their community secretly support Trump. The crew explains why that is unlikely. They also consider the future of Black politics as politicians from the Civil Rights Era -- like Rep. John Lewis -- leave office.
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White Democrats Are Wary Of Big Ideas To Address Racial Inequality

In recent weeks, public opinion has moved significantly in favor of Black Lives Matter and more people have taken the view that Black people face discrimination in America. But is there public support for policies that could address that discrimination? FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. and political science professor Meredith Conroy discuss what the polls can tell us.
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COVID-19 Deaths Are Rising. What Will The U.S. Do?

The crew discusses whether Americans and politicians are in agreement on how to respond to the recent surge in coronavirus cases. The also interrogate a lesson that some Democrats took away from the 2016 election -- that the party should focus less on "identity politics."
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Conservatives Didn?t Get The SCOTUS They Wanted This Term

FiveThirtyEight legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux joins Galen Druke to look back at a U.S. Supreme Court term full of consequential cases. They also unpack one the final rulings of the term, which permits prosecutors to subpoena the president's financial records.
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How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds

The crew considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall -- ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court.
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How The GOP Chose To Be A White Party

FiveThirtyEight's Clare Malone discusses the history of how the GOP became an overwhelmingly white party. Her article on the topic is titled, "The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white."
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Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas

The crew looks at new polling that shows the clearest picture so far of the presidential race in battleground states. It isn't good for Trump.
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New Voter Registrations Have Nosedived During COVID-19

FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich and Kaleigh Rogers analyze data showing that the number of people registering to vote has fallen off a cliff during the coronavirus pandemic
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Progressives Challenge The Democratic Establishment

The crew looks at the dynamic between Democratic upstarts and the establishment as primary voters head to the polls in New York and Kentucky.
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Model Talk: Biden Leads Trump By 9 Nationally

In this edition of Model Talk, Nate and Galen discuss FiveThirtyEight's newly published presidential election polling averages.
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Views Of BLM Have Shifted. What Happens Next?

The crew discusses the ways that public opinion on racism has changed during the past three weeks and ask how it will affect our politics.
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The Protests Appear To Be Working

New York Times writer Mara Gay and FiveThirtyEight contributor Shom Mazumder join the podcast to discuss the efficacy of the anti-police violence protests so far.
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Americans Don't Like How Trump Is Handling Multiple Crises

The podcast crew looks at President Trump's latest polling for handling the pandemic and mass protests. They also discuss why young voters aren't enthusiastic about Biden.
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Protests, Then And Now

Prof. Yohuru Williams joins Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke to discuss how today's anti-police violence protests compare with past protest movements.
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The Data Behind Police Violence

Sam Sinyangwe joins the podcast to discuss police violence data and the politics of the protests that have spread across the country.
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What Biden's VP Picks Say About Him

Perry Bacon Jr. and Julia Azari join the podcast to discuss the process of choosing a VP and what that choice says about the candidate and the party.
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Questions About Biden And Trump's Bases

The crew discusses a gaffe Biden made during a conversation about black voters and debates the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election.
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One Virus, A World Full Of Responses

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how many countries, with different political systems, handle a very similar crisis -- and how the public reacts.
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Does Trump Really Want A Fight With Obama?

The crew looks at evidence that the coronavirus response has grown more partisan. They also discuss the rationale for an election year conflict between Obama and Trump.
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Why COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Are Spreading

Political scientist Joe Uscinski joins the podcast to discuss the spread of COVID-19 conspiracy theories -- why they've formed and what can be done about them.
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Americans, Not Politicians, Will Decide How We Reopen

The podcast crew discusses the politics and practicalities of states reopening amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They also consider which party is ahead in the race for the Senate.
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What The 14.7% Unemployment Rate Means

Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Erica Groshen joins the podcast to discuss the latest jobs report, which showed a record unemployment level.
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Biden Responds To Sexual Assault Allegation

The team discusses the politics of Tara Reade's accusations of sexual assault against Biden and Biden's denial. They also weigh the impact of a Justin Amash run for president.
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The U.S. Is Starting To Reopen. Is It Ready?

States around the country are beginning to reopen. Professor Crystal Watson of the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health discusses the systems they should have in place.
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Is COVID-19 Already Hurting Trump Politically?

The crew analyzes recent data showing Trump losing ground in swing states. They also ask how much reactions to the pandemic have been based on partisanship.
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Model Talk: Forecasting The Toll Of COVID-19

Dr. Chris Murray, creator of the frequently cited IHME COVID-19 model, joins a special edition of Model Talk.
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What Is Motivating The COVID-19 Protests?

The crew discusses why protests against COVID-19 mitigation measures have popped up around the country. They also weigh the pros and cons of Biden's potential VP picks.
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How To Hold An Election During A Crisis

What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly?
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Our 2020 Election Priors

Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. They also track where we are in the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Emergency Podcast: Sanders Drops Out

The crew reacts to Sen. Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president.
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Wisconsin's Election Is A Mess

The crew digs into the challenges facing Wisconsin's election, given partisanship and the COVID-19 pandemic. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis.
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Why It's So Hard To Forecast The Impact Of COVID-19

FiveThirtyEight's science writer Maggie Koerth and quantitative editor Laura Bronner join the podcast to discuss the challenges of modeling the impact of COVID-19.
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Why Trump's Approval Rating Has Increased

The crew discusses where we are in the arc of the COVID-19 crisis, how Americans are rating the president's performance, and the significance of the DPA.
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COVID-19 Broke The Jobless Claims Chart

Economics reporter Ben Casselman joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the stunning unemployment claims numbers from last week.
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How COVID-19 Is -- And Isn't -- Changing Politics

The crew discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the politics of Washington, D.C. and how it's disrupting the 2020 presidential race.
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How COVID-19 Is Changing The Economy

Economist Tara Sinclair joins Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far.
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How COVID-19 Affected Tuesday's Vote

FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Tuesday night's primary elections.
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Coronavirus, Uncertainty, Politics

The crew discusses the coronavirus crisis and the uncertainty and politics surrounding it.
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Biden And Sanders Debate Amid Pandemic

The crew reacts to the first Biden vs. Sanders one-on-one debate, which took place amid the coronavirus pandemic.
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The Democratic Primary Is No Longer Competitive

The crew reacts to the latest round of Democratic primary results, in which Biden far outperformed Sanders.
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Is Even Coronavirus Partisan?

The crew discusses the results of a poll on coronavirus and previews the upcoming primary races.
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Model Talk: Biden Is A Clear Favorite

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Emergency Podcast: Warren Drops Out

The crew reacts to the news that Sen. Elizabeth Warren is suspending her campaign for president.
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Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?

The crew reacts to Joe Biden's very strong performance on Super Tuesday and asks what comes next.
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What's At Stake On Super Tuesday

The crew previews the races that will be decided on Super Tuesday and debates the effect Buttigieg's dropout will have.
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Biden Wins Big In South Carolina

The crew reacts to Biden's big win in South Carolina and discusses what comes next in what looks to be a two person race.
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