How did China become the economic behemoth that it is today? One pivotal moment was, obviously, it's ascension into the WTO. Prior to that, the era of reform under Deng Xiaoping was obviously crucial. But obviously no single event or turning point can really tell the story. In a groundbreaking new book -- The Great Transformation: China?s Road from Revolution to Reform --  historians Odd Arne Westad and Chen Jian tell the full story of how China went from being an impoverished, highly planned communist economy to the dynamic capitalist economy it is today. We spoke with Westad, a professor at Yale, about this book, and what people get wrong about China's big opening up.

Read more:
China?s Surging LNG Imports From US Threatened by Next Trade War
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Call for Greater China Transparency

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After his victory, Donald Trump announced that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy would be leading up a new Department of Government Efficiency in order to crack down on wasteful, fraudulent spending inside the federal government. Setting aside the question of how effective this particular endeavor will be, the basic premise of cracking down on waste and going after fraudsters should generally be non-controversial. So what does fraud look like? How do companies bilk programs like Medicare and Medicaid for billions of dollars every year? And what can be done about it? On this episode, we speak with Jetson Leder-Luis, an assistant professor at the Questrom School of Business at Boston University and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Jetson walks us through such things as ambulance fraud, identity theft, and other techniques that are used to milk the system. He also explains the tactics and strategies that the government can deploy to reduce billions in wasted spending.

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In the final episode of our special three-part series exploring the US economy through the chicken industry, we?re taking a look at market competition. Chicken in the US is dominated by a handful of huge poultry processors. But new technologies,  like algorithmic pricing, are also leading to accusations of anticompetitive corporate behavior that can potentially create bad outcomes for both consumers and workers. We?re using poultry to trace the evolution of America?s approach to antitrust and learning what?s different now. You?ll hear from senior officials at the Department of Justice about how concentration in chicken and elsewhere is impacting the economy, and what can be done to fix it. 

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The Odd Lots team is analyzing the US economy through the lens of chicken. In this second episode of our special three-part series, we look at the birds themselves and the people who farm them. Because the way we actually get chicken has changed a lot over the years, with the industry evolving from backyard birds to huge poultry companies that outsource chicken growing to independent contractors. Farmers often say they are taking on most of the risk of raising chicks, while the big poultry companies get most of the upside. And this model of farming is becoming more popular in other agricultural areas too. So what does the way chickens are produced say about the labor market, the way it?s structured, and the distribution of risk and profits? We speak with chicken growers, agricultural experts, and more. 

This episode was updated on November 19th, 2024 to reflect a clarification ?it wasn?t until 2013 that Craig Watts sent a film of his barns to his production manager. In 2014 is when he partnered with a human rights activist to produce that exposé on chicken farming.

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Everybody loves chicken. And, it turns out, that this humble bird can tell us quite a lot about the way the world works. In this three-part series, the Odd Lots team is exploring some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy, through the medium of chicken. In this first episode, we?re looking at chicken from the consumer side. Why do we love it so much? What goes into the price of something like a hot wing or an egg? And what can chicken tell us about the way we think of inflation? We speak with prominent economists, analysts, CEOs, and even a chicken sandwich war correspondent, to discuss. It?s time for Squawk Lots! 

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Last week the Federal Reserve opted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was what the market expected it to do. But things get more uncertain from here on out. Inflation has been softening this year, but there?s a sense that this trend could turn ? especially with the Trump administration coming in after the new year. All of this raises the question of what the Fed does next, and how it?s approaching near-term data versus the longer-term outlook for the economy. At the same time, Trump has had vocal disagreements with Chair Jerome Powell over the path of monetary policy and the role of the central bank, which adds more uncertainty. On this episode, we speak with former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, now an economic advisor at Pimco and a professor of economics at Columbia University, about where the Fed goes from here.

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In this limited series, Odd Lots explains some of the thorniest issues facing the US economy through the medium of ? chicken. Chicken occupies a unique position in the US diet, but issues facing the poultry industry illustrate wider points about the development of the US economy and the decisions being made about how it's structured and who benefits from it. So why has the chicken industry evolved in the way that it has? What?s been driving the price increases in eggs and meat? And what does it all say about things like inflation, the labor market and the nature of American capitalism?

Check out Beak Capitalism on Odd Lots starting Friday, November 15th, 2024 wherever you get your podcasts.

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Over the last roughly 15 years, we've seen a migration of certain types of risks outside of regulated deposit-taking banks. Private credit has boomed, shifting lending activity away from the banks. Multi-strategy hedge funds have scooped up a lot of the proprietary trading activity that was banned under the Volcker Rule. On paper, this looks good. It seems like various risks have been removed to less systemic institutions. But does the risk find its way back in? What happens when these outside entities still rely on banks for leverage? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Steven Kelly, the Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability. We talk about where risks might lie and how regulators can stay atop of them.

Read More:
Era of Private Credit Returns Beating Private Equity Is Nearing an End
Hedge Fund Basis Trade Faces Scrutiny as Regulators Mull Probe

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There was a a point in time when Twitter used to be good for breaking news. Social media outlets like Instagram and Facebook were great for keeping up with friends. There used to be websites that people would refresh throughout the day, reading news or gossip from sources they knew and trusted. Now, most of that has gone -- or at least changed dramatically. A combination of profit imperatives, political motivations, and AI have upended much of that old internet. So what happened? Why has the web become a home of slop and sludge? We speak to Max Read, the author of the Read Max newsletter, to understand today's internet, and where things are going next.

Read More:
Musk Is About to Find What $130 Million for Trump Gets Him
TikTok Ordered to Close Canada Unit Due to National Security

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The US election is over and Donald Trump has won a second term as president. Stocks have rallied on Trump's win, of course, but some of the more interesting moves have taken place in the bond market. Not only have yields on US Treasuries shot up, but expectations for volatility in the world's most important market were also shifting higher ahead of Trump's win. All of this is happening even though the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut benchmark rates again this week. So what's driving higher yields? On this episode, we speak with Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management and creator of Convexity Maven, about all the recent moves in bonds and what could be coming next. 

Read More:
Volfefe Returns to the Bond Market
The Market?s Constraint on Full Trumpism

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It's Election Day in the US, so there's no need for any real explanation of what's at stake. Last night in New York City, we hosted a special live Odd Lots event, where we interviewed some of our regular guests on stage to talk about the vote, as well as the economic and market implications in the days and years ahead ? regardless of who wins. First up, you'll hear a conversation about prediction markets, regular markets, and vote-watching with Skanda Amarnath of Employ America, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, and prediction markets bettor Zvi Mowshowitz. And then in the second half of the show, we hear from the Council on Foreign Relations fellow Brad Setser on the global environment ? what Brad calls an "unhealthy globalization" ? that the next president will inherit.

Read More: How the World Is Prepping for a Trump or Harris Victory

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Be in the know this election with Bloomberg Podcasts. Follow Bloomberg News Now for up-to-the minute election results, all night long. And go deeper with The Big Take podcast, featuring in-depth global analysis of the US election every day this week. 

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The Biden administration has overseen a revival of so-called industrial policy in a way that we haven't seen in years. Major efforts are underway to revive or reinvigorate US production of semiconductors, batteries, and other key technologies. But it's not clear if these efforts will have any legs and sustain a new trajectory of US policymaking. Was it just a blip? Or does this represent a new era in terms of how we think about the relationship between the government and the economy? On this episode, we speak with Ezra Klein, host of The Ezra Klein Show, about the legacy of this era. We talk about different possible paths under both a Harris and Trump administration, as well as what other policy areas may come into vague in the years ahead.

Read More:
Bidenomics Leaves a Blue State Industrial Heartland Behind
Trump Threat to Biden?s Industrial Policy Hangs Over Asian Firms

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There's something of a uranium cult out there: the investors and traders who believe that nuclear is the future of energy, and therefore this crucial commodity will end up being a huge winner. And over the last several years, the price has gone up substantially. But what are the economics of the uranium market? And how sensitive is it to some of these power plants that are reopening? On this episode, we speak with commodities guru Bob Brackett, head of Americas energy and transition at Bernstein Research. Bob knows everything about just about every commodity under the sun, so in addition to talking uranium, we get an update on lithium, gold, silver, oil, and more.

Previously: The Three Big Things Driving the Nuclear Energy Revival

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China is making steady progress in its quest to dominate key industries of the future, despite years of US tariffs, export controls and sanctions. 

Check out this special episode of Bloomberg's Big Take Asia podcast, as hosts K. Oanh Ha talks to Bloomberg News correspondent Rebecca Choong Wilkins about how the US is struggling to curb Beijing?s technological advances, and whether the upcoming presidential election could change the dynamic.

Then come back on Thursday, as Rebecca joins the next episode of Odd Lots -- along with Bloomberg economic analyst Gerard DiPippo -- to take a further look at the ongoing tech rivalry between the US and China.

Read more:
The Big Take: Efforts to Contain Xi?s Push for Tech Supremacy Are Faltering

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In 2015, China identified several key industries of the future for which it aimed to compete at the technological frontier. The 'Made in China 2025' plan included expansion in things like EVs, solar power, batteries, semiconductors, AI, and drones. But now, 2025 is almost here and China's progress has been remarkable across several of these categories. In fact, it's the world leader in some of these industries (like EVs and solar), and it's catching up in others. In this episode we speak with Bloomberg News reporter, Rebecca Choong Wilkins, as well as Gerard DiPippo, senior geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. The two of them were part of a team that took a major look at the status of Made In China 2025 (a name that isn't really even used that much anymore). We discuss how much progress China has made despite efforts from the US over the last several years to impede its ambitions, and how it's judging the success of the program.

Read More:
US Efforts to Contain Xi?s Push for Tech Supremacy Are Faltering
How American Tax Breaks Brought a Chinese Solar Energy Giant to Ohio

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Florida has been struck by two big hurricanes this year, setting off a wave of damage and, of course, new insurance claims. As we all know by now, insurance rates in places like Florida, Louisiana, and California have jumped in recent years thanks to a combination of more natural disasters, higher replacement costs, and other factors. But Florida has become a particularly expensive market, with roofing scams supposedly pushing up rates for everyone, and a string of private insurers exiting the market. So what's the future of this messy market? We speak with Jerry Theodorou, policy director of finance, insurance and trade at R Street Institute, a free market think tank. He's also a veteran of the insurance industry and, in this episode, he walks us through what's been going on in Florida's insurance market and argues that there are some signs that things are getting better.

Read More:
Why Insurance Rates Have Been Surging in California and Florida
Florida Home Insurers With Lax Ratings Pose New Property Risk

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When sports, business and culture collide, there?s often a deal to be made. Join Alex Rodriguez and Bloomberg correspondent Jason Kelly as they get the inside track from corporate titans, sports champions and game-changing entrepreneurs on investing, strategy, reinvention and the ones that got away. The Deal is a Bloomberg Podcasts and Bloomberg Originals series that?s passionate, relaxed, insightful and inspirational. If you think you know these icons, prepare to be surprised.

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Shares of Boeing, America's biggest aerospace manufacturer, have plummeted 40% so far this year. The company is facing a string of challenges, including fatal crashes of its 737 Max jet, a door blowing off another 737 aircraft, striking workers, and difficulties ramping up production. That's opened up some pretty existential questions for the company ? including whether this former national champion will even survive for much longer. In the meantime, Boeing executives are trying to turn things around by raising additional capital and slashing the workforce to bring down costs. But will it work? In this episode, we speak with aerospace veteran Richard Aboulafia, a managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, about the ongoing mess that is Boeing.

Read More:
Boeing Workers Reject Deal in Longshot Bid to Revive Pension
The Remarkable Story of Brazilian Jet Maker Embraer

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By now, everyone knows that private credit is a hot market. What's less known is that banks want in on it too. It's an odd state of affairs given that both these entities are in the business of making loans, so in theory they should be competing against each other. But instead we're seeing a bunch of deals, with more than a dozen big banks teaming up with private credit over the past year. So why are two seemingly natural competitors joining forces? And how much of an existential threat does private credit really pose for the banking industry? On this episode, we with speak with Huw van Steenis, vice-chair at Oliver Wyman and a long-time bank analyst at Morgan Stanley, about this new dynamic.

Read More:
The Macro Impact of the Private Credit Boom
The Black Hole of Private Credit

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On September 18, the Federal Reserve kicked off the cutting cycle by reducing overnight rates by 50 basis points. Since then, mortgage rates have gone higher. This is not obviously an intuitive thing to happen. The point of a rate cut is to stimulate the economy by reducing the cost to borrow. And people generally know that interest rates and mortgage costs are linked. Well, it turns out they are linked, but not directly. And certainly not in some linear manner. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Tom Graff, the CIO of the wealth management firm Facet, and a long-time trader in the fixed income space. We talk about the factors that influence mortgage rates, why the spread between a 30-year fixed and a 10-year Treasury fluctuates over time, and how rate cuts can be priced in before they even happen. We also talk about what we'll need to see for mortgage rates to move sustainably lower.

Read More:
US Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.52%, Highest Since Early August
Why a 'Broken' Mortgage Market Is Keeping Borrowing Rates Extra High

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For decades, investors have been told that diversifying is a good thing. You should hold a basket of stocks across different sectors and geographies, plus bonds, maybe some commodities or real estate, and so on. But, it turns out that you probably would have done better if you just bought large-cap US stocks in the form of an S&P 500 ETF like SPY. So why haven't diversified investments performed better? In this episode, we speak with Meb Faber, CIO of Cambria Investment Management, the host of the Meb Faber show, and the author of one of the most-downloaded research papers on SSRN. He says the last 15 years have "arguably been the worst period ever for an asset allocation portfolio. 

Read more:
Great ?Bear Market? in Diversification Haunts Wall Street Pros
The Fate of the World?s Largest ETF Is Tied to 11 Random Millennials

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In September, Chinese policymakers shocked the markets by unveiling a set of stimulus measures designed to boost the economy and bolster the real estate market. While it's too soon to know whether the announcements will be successful, the stock market took off like a rocket in the wake of the news. Since the initial unveiling, further efforts have been announced with promises of more to come. So how big of a deal is this really? Is this the start of a major turning point in China's economic trajectory? Or is this just business as usual? On this episode, we speak with two guests. First, we discuss the macro situation with Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute, and the famed theorist of "balance sheet recessions." Then we delve further into China's decision-making apparatus with Zichen Wang, the author of the must-read Pekingology newsletter. Our guests answer why this time may be different, how these measures come about, how they get implemented, and what to watch next in terms of their impact.

And if you want more Odd Lots content, subscribe to our new daily newsletter over here.

Read more:
US Trade Rep Katherine Tai Describes the New Era of Globalization
Adam Tooze on the Big Misconceptions of the Chinese Economy

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Big tech stocks have had an enormous impact on the stock market, with Magnificent 7 companies like Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia now dominating equity indices and basically dictating the path of benchmark returns. And of course, there's been loads of discussion about the real transformational value of AI and whether it's all going to end up being one big bubble. But tech investing and big disruptive trends like AI aren't just for equity investors. They're playing out in the credit market, too. And of course, building the data centers and producing the chips that power AI requires huge amounts of capital ? much of which is sourced via bonds and loans. Increasingly, a lot of that capital is coming from private credit players, one of the biggest of which is Apollo Global Management. In this episode, we speak with Rob Bittencourt, a partner at Apollo and co-head of opportunistic credit, about how the tech story is playing out and what Apollo is doing in the space.

Read More: Private Credit to Outperform in a Downturn, Apollo?s Zelter Says

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What if your contracts could be a roadmap to running your business ? the first step in managing your relationships with your suppliers and clients? That?s the function of Sirion, a contract lifecycle management software for in-house legal departments. This episode of The ROI Rules of AI explores how Sirion has recently been upgraded with generative AI functionality designed to make it something the whole company can use, not just its legal staff. This episode is sponsored by IBM.

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In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve basically had one focus: defeating inflation. That's now changed. Keeping inflation at bay is still important, but the Fed is now attuned to labor market risks as well. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee about how the US economy achieved something that almost nobody thought was possible: a marked decline in inflation without a major increase in the unemployment rate or a slowdown in economic activity. We discuss what actually happened to the economy over the last four years. What was the role of monetary policy in bringing down inflation? How much of the inflation turned out to be transitory all along? And what are the risks today, with the September jobs report having come in much stronger than expected? He explains why the Fed has shifted its priority and how he's thinking of risk management at this point in the economic cycle.

Read More:
Three Fed Officials Shrug Off CPI Report, Bostic Open to Pause

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In recent years, we've seen the emergence of cities whose main industry is that they're a great place to live if you're rich. Dubai would be the ultimate example of this dynamic. But it's not just Dubai. Lots of cities, all around the world, exist to cater to the wealthy, with a set of laws and taxation schemes that act like a magnet for global wealth. So how do these cities work? How big are they? And what exactly do they offer the global rich? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Atossa Araxia Abrahamian, author of The Hidden Globe: How Wealth Hacks The World. She talks about these booming types of cities, how they emerged, and where they are going.

Read more: Miami Wealth Boom Fuels $13 Billion Firm Serving the Ultra Rich

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Multi-strategy hedge funds are still all the rage on Wall Street, but what does it actually mean to be a pod shop and how are they being set up? On this episode, we speak with Dan Morillo, co-founder of Freestone Grove Partners and formerly a partner and head of equity quantitative research at Citadel (one of the most successful multi-strats out there.) While lots of people tend to talk about multi-strategy hedge funds as one big blob, he argues that there are important differences in their business models. We talk about how he identifies top portfolio managers, managing crowding risk, and the math behind compensation, scale and returns.

Previously:
How Hedge Funds Discover the Next Superstar Trader 
How to Succeed at Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds

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The US is in the midst of a big effort to bring more semiconductor manufacturing onshore. Intel is the biggest US semiconductor manufacturer. There's just one problem. Intel has really been struggling to get its fab operations up and running in a timely, efficient manner. So what's the problem, and can the company turn things around? On this episode of Lots More, we speak to Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research and Mackenzie Hawkins of Bloomberg News to discuss the current struggles and future prospects for the company.

Mentioned in this episode:
Intel Gets Multibillion-Dollar Apollo Offer as Qualcomm Circles
Arm Is Rebuffed by Intel After Inquiring About Buying Product Unit

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In 2017, Congress passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which may be better known as the Trump tax cuts. Due to the way fiscal policy works in the United States, a large component of the bill was temporary. And starting in 2026, millions of households are due to see higher taxes if the bill isn't extended or a new one is passed. Regardless of who wins the presidency, dealing with this tax hike is going to be a key political issue. But what is the TCJA? What was the idea behind it? And what happens if it expires? On this episode of the podcast we speak to Kevin Brady, who was the architect of the bill as the former Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. We discuss both the economics and the politics of passing tax reform, and what Brady hoped to accomplish when he created the law.

Read More: Trump Tax Cuts Would Cost More Than Almost All Federal Agencies

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Earlier this month, we got the surprising headline that the shuttered nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island will be restarted. Of course, Three Mile Island was the site of a famous disaster in 1979 ? one of the incidents that contributed to the US pulling back on the construction of new nuclear plants. This particular reactor was shuttered in 2019, when the economics of it no longer made sense. So why the restart? And why is there generally more interest and excitement about nuclear than there has been in years? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Jigar Shah, the head of the Loan Programs Office at the Department of Energy. We talk about the big drivers both in terms of policy and economic conditions that have created this renaissance.

Read More:
Microsoft AI Needs So Much Power It's Tapping Site of US Nuclear Meltdown
Microsoft to Pay Hefty Price for Three Mile Island Clean Power

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Look out. Supply chains are back in the news. As soon as next week, workers at all of the ports on the US East Coast could go on strike, crippling trade across a range of industrial and agricultural parts of the economy. So what's at stake? What do the workers want? Is there any prospect of the US government heading it off? On this episode, we speak with Craig Fuller, the founder and CEO of FreightWaves, about what the labor dispute is all about and how it could possibly hammer the economy in the weeks leading up to the presidential election.
 
Read More: Port Employers Ask NLRB to Force Dockworkers to Bargaining Table

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Right now, industrial policy is back in vogue in the US. The administration is making an effort at reviving specific sectors, notably in areas of clean energy and semiconductors. But despite all of the money being spent on subsidies of various sorts, there's no guarantee it will actually work. If it were easy, every country would do it. So what are the conditions that make it possible? And how can it go sour? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Vivek Chibber, a professor at NYU, and the author of several books including Locked In Place, which compares the development experience of South Korea and India. We talk about the interaction of economic policy and domestic politics, as well as the specific political conditions that need to be in place that allow the government to provide "gifts" to companies, and for those gifts to actually turn into leading edge industrial leaders, rather than for that money to simply go into the pockets of investors. Among the things we discuss are: What industrial policy actually is and what it's going to take for the US endeavors to actually become successful.

Read More:
How Economic Complexity Explains Which Countries Become Rich
Adam Tooze on the Big Misconceptions of the Chinese Economy

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These days if you talk to people about the stock market, they might talk to you about the effect of the Fed. Or they'll talk about the Mag 7 and AI capex spend. Or they'll extoll the virtues of passive, low-cost investing. It seems like you hear less and less about the art of security selection: Finding cheap diamonds in the rough that have been overlooked by other investors. But some people are still keeping that world alive. John Rogers is the founder and co-CEO of Ariel Investments, and in his primary mutual fund he invests only in mid- and small-cap companies. Recorded live on stage at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, CA, we talk about his approach. He explains why he believes value investing still works, and the process he uses to select individual names. We also discuss what he looks for and how he researches stock picks. Among other things, he tells us why he's invested in The Sphere (yes, that Sphere in Vegas) as well as the company that makes the McFlurry machines for McDonald's.

Read More: Stocks, Bonds Trim Declines After Waller Comments: Markets Wrap

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The Future Proof Festival takes place right on the beach in Huntington Beach, California. Thousands of registered investment advisors from all over the country come to talk shop, take pitches from vendors, eat tacos, drink beer, and listen to a concert from Third Eye Blind. On this Lots More, we talk with Sam Ro, the author of the Tker.co newsletter about the RIA scene, financial media, behavioral finance, the Fed, and the business of musical artists playing at conferences. 

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This week, the Fed cut benchmark rates by 50 basis points. Lower financing costs should be a relief for companies that need to borrow in the form of bonds or loans. But, the weird thing about the previous few years of high rates and high inflation is how much corporate credit has defied expectations. While defaults increased slightly, there wasn?t a huge wave of bankruptcies. And most companies haven?t really had trouble finding financing, with a smorgasbord of options available to them ? including from the booming private credit market. So what happens now that the Fed is lowering rates? In this episode, we speak with Danielle Poli, co-portfolio manager of Oaktree?s Diversified Income Fund and a founding member of the firm?s investment committee, about how she sees the next leg of the credit cycle unfolding, and how she decides between a multitude of potential investments in the space.

Related Links:
The Black Hole of Private Credit That?s Swallowing the Economy
The Hottest Way for Banks to Get Risk Off Their Balance Sheets

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It?s Fed Day, and while everyone expects the central bank to cut benchmark interest rates, the key question is by how much? Will it be 25 basis points or 50? Investors are evenly split between the two possibilities, setting up one of the most uncertain meetings ever. So what does a big bond manager do on a day like this? In this episode, we speak with Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO at Pimco, where he manages the $158 billion Pimco Income Fund. He tells us what he?s expecting from the FOMC, and what he?s seeing in terms of financial conditions and the real restrictiveness of the monetary environment right now. He also walks us through what Fed day is actually like at Pimco, where he thinks the economy is going, and answers the question of whether ? with rates finally going down ? bonds might be back in favor.

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15 years ago was a pivotal moment for financial media. On the one hand, we were in the midst of a huge financial crisis, which shook everything up and exposed how little we knew about our own world. In addition to that, we were in the early moments of a revolution, which saw the rise of blogs, podcasts, "Finance Twitter" and other new platforms for disseminating information about markets and business. One of the winners from that era was Josh Brown, a former stockbroker who rose to fame in part on the back of his must-read blog The Reformed Broker. Now he's the CEO of a large investment advisory firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management. He's got a popular podcast. He's got a new book. He's a fixture on CNBC. And he even has a conference business. We talk about his career path, what he's learned, some funny stories from the good old days, and how he became a media giant.

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Financial institutions have been a leading target for cyber crime since the dawn of the internet. But phishing schemes have become far more intricate, and cyber heists go beyond stealing money from a bank. JF Legault, Deputy CISO at J.P. Morgan Chase, explains how he leads cyber defense on the front lines of work ? and lays out a strategy to transform teams into early detection networks. Then David Adrian from Chrome unpacks how web browsing protections, robust monitoring, and a real-time view of threats can fit into this kind of strategy to maximize resilience to a cyber attack.

This episode is sponsored by Chrome Enterprise.

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This week, former European Central Bank President and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi published a long-awaited report examining ways to make the European economy more competitive. The report comes at a time when there are major concerns about how Europe is stacking up against the US and China in things like electrical vehicles and AI. It also dovetails with long-running debates about German fiscal austerity, economic tensions between various European Union members, energy crises, and inflation. In this episode, we speak with University of Massachusetts-Amherst economics professor Isabella Weber about her takeaways from the report and potential policy approaches to solving Europe's big competitiveness problem.

Referenced in this episode:
Draghi Says EU Itself at Risk Without More Funds, Joint Debt
Draghi?s Call for Joint EU Bonds Hits Wall of German Opposition

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One of the big buzzwords over the last year or so has been "overcapacity." There's a constant line of argument that China is unfairly flooding the world with unprofitable goods and creating huge, unsustainable imbalances. Western countries, particularly the US (but also Europe), have responded by raising tariffs and engaging in domestic industrial policy in order to compete. But is the strategy sound? Are the basic premises of the problem correct? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Columbia Professor Adam Tooze, the author of several books, as well as the popular Chartbook newsletter. He argues that the overcapacity framing is misguided, and that the US may be making a mistake putting its chips down on an industrial revival. He talks us through some of the actual weaknesses of the Chinese model, as well as its global political reverberations.

Read more:

Two Veteran Chip Builders Have a Plan to Take On Nvidia

The US and China Are in an All Out Race for AI Domination

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One of the rare areas of bipartisan consensus in the US right now, is on the need to change our trading relationship with China. Former President Donald Trump started a process of putting tariffs on Chinese goods and limiting the export of certain key technologies. This has only expanded under the Biden administration, with expanded restrictions on things like electric vehicles, solar panels, and semiconductors. So what's the thinking behind this drive? What are the goals and what are the risks? On this episode we speak with the United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai. Ambassador Tai describes what she sees as a rethink, or a new version of, globalization. She explains the new worker-centric priorities, how trade fits into domestic investments, and what a healthy version of international economic relations actually looks like. 

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Pretty much since the moment that cryptocurrencies came into existence, there's been a chorus of skeptics who argue that they solve no real world use cases, except for gambling and speculation. For a while, there was a lot of hype about things like Web3 or DeFi, but for the most part, these still remain in the realm of pure speculation and gambling. And so, the ultimate use case for crypto remains elusive. Our guest on this episode argues otherwise. He thinks that stablecoins, such as Circle or Paxos, which are backed by actual dollar instruments in regulated institutions running on public blockchains (like Ethereum or Solana) are solving a genuine problem in transmitting money, beyond just speculating on other cryptocurrencies. Austin Campbell is an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and the founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting. He also comes with a long resume at both crypto and legacy financial institutions. He explains why stablecoins are having a moment and explains the problems they currently solve (particularly internationally) and why legacy payments infrastructure is unlikely to serve the same needs. 

Read more:
The Case for Stablecoins Being the New Shadow Banks

How Stablecoins Became a Powerful Force in Crypto

 
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One of the problems in investing or trading is that ? to use a common disclaimer ? past results are no guarantee of future success. Someone can have a great track record in their stock picks, but maybe they just got lucky. Or maybe they were particularly well-dialed into one market regime that inevitably shifts. Or maybe they're actually just better than other traders. For multi-strategy hedge funds or "pod shops," there's an ongoing battle to hire or train the next great portfolio manager. But how can managers tell who is actually good and who isn't? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Joe Peta, who was previously the head of performance analytics at Point72 Asset Management and has had a long career in the trading world. He's also an avid fan of sports gambling, and the author of the recent book, Moneyball for the Money Set, which attempts to take some of the talent analytical principles that originated in Major League Baseball and apply them to evaluating portfolio managers. He talks us through the traditional approach funds use to find or create superstars, and how these approaches can be improved upon using more rigorous, quantitative methods.

Mentioned in this episode: 
Hedge Fund Talent Schools Are Looking for the Perfect Trader
How to Succeed at Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds

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There's been a lot of talk about private credit in recent years. The market has exploded in size, and there are worries that it could be a bubble that eventually bursts and sparks disaster. But there are other negative effects from private credit that might already be happening. In a new paper called "The Credit Markets Go Dark," co-authors Harvard Law School professor Jared Ellias and Duke University School of Law professor Elisabeth de Fontenay argue that the $1.5 trillion market for private credit is already having a big impact on the economy ? and not in a good way. They say that the rise of private credit marks a seismic change for corporate governance and dynamism.

Read More:
Odd Lots Newsletter: The Black Hole of Private Credit
Private Credit Pushes Deeper Into Risk That Wall Street Is Fleeing

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Last week at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a short and powerful speech indicating that it's time for a policy pivot. The goal now, from his perspective, is to prevent further deterioration of the US labor market. His speech didn't delve much into theory or nuance. In this episode, we speak with Peterson Institute President, Adam Posen, who found the speech unsatisfying. He argues that the state of the labor market, while cooling, didn't merit a "rifle shot" approach, such as the one Powell delivered. He explains his concerns and how he sees the risks materializing from here.

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Remember August 5th? That was the day that markets around the world plunged in historic fashion and everyone became an overnight expert on the yen carry trade. But what really is the yen carry trade? How big is it? Who is making the trade? And what is its connection to markets all around the world? On this episode, recorded at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, we speak with Hyun Song Shin, economic advisor and head of research at the Bank for International Settlements. He walks us through the mechanics of the trade, what went on in early August, and the lessons we've already learned from it.

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When the Treasury market broke in March 2020, the Federal Reserve intervened in extraordinary fashion. It purchased more than $1 trillion worth of Treasury securities in that month alone. Superficially, this looked a lot like the Quantitative Easing that we came to know during the GFC. But it's purpose was different. This wasn't about depressing the yield curve or providing a form of strong forward guidance. Instead, it was the Fed taking on a role of the "market maker of last resort," so to speak. And yet, despite the different goals, the two different operations look the same and are carried out by the same officials (the members of the FOMC). This creates confusion, cost, and can create a situation where it looks like the Fed is working against itself. On this episode of the podcast, which was recorded in Jackson Hole at the Kansas City Fed's annual Economic Symposium, we speak with University of Chicago Booth professor, Anil Kashyap. He presented a paper at the conference proposing a separate tool within the Fed that can handle balance sheet operations for financial stability. We discussed his proposal along with broader questions about the transmission of monetary policy.

Related link: Monetary Policy Implications of Market Marker of Last Resort Operations

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At Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a clear signal that the rate cut cycle is likely to start in September. But of course that just opens more questions. Will it be a 25bps cut? Will it be 50? Could it be two 50s in a row? When does it stop? On today's episode, we speak with Peter Williams, a macro strategist at 22V Research. He walks us through his interpretation of Powell's speech and what to look for as the rate cut cycle begins.

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This year?s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming marked a big change for US monetary policy, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell telegraphing the first rate cuts in potentially two years. But what?s it actually like to be a policymaker at one of the most famous economics conferences in the world? And what do central bankers do when they all get together to talk policy? In this episode, we catch up with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, who describes what it?s like to be at Jackson Hole, what?s discussed and how the annual agenda put together by the Kansas City Fed comes together. We also talk about Powell?s speech and how Barkin is viewing the labor market right now.

Powell?s Pivot Leaves Traders Debating Size, Path of Rate Cuts

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