He's done it again. On Sunday night, building supply company QXO announced that it would be acquiring TopBuild for $17 billion. TopBuild sells and installs insulation for both the residential and commercial markets. For Brad Jacobs, the CEO of QXO, this is just the latest in a lifetime of deals he's made. In fact, he's made over 500 deals in his life across numerous public companies that he's founded, most of which have XO somewhere in the ticker. Brad's companies all tend to be highly focused on the so-called "old economy" or real physical world, but of course, as we've seen with the datacenter boom, the old economy is still hot and crucial. So we talk about the logic behind this deal, how the insulation market works, and the general state of the building supply market right now.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The White House wants gasoline prices to be lower, and it wants to see American oil companies drill for more oil. But of course, these ideas are in tension. If prices are going lower, why drill more? This tension has only grown sharper since the shale busts of the mid-2010s, as American producers got burned multiple times by prioritizing production over profits. So what now? How do US producers think about the recent oil price spike? How are they thinking about the rising costs of their own production, due to higher energy, labor, and steel costs? On this episode, we speak with Jack McClendon, the founder and CEO of Siena Natural Resources, an independent oil and gas company that primary buys odd lots of wells from other companies. We talk about the long-term economics of the industry, including the central role of capital markets in determining how the industry moves. He also tells us whether the show Landman is realistic.

Read more:
Oil Tankers Hauling US Crude Via Panama Approaching 4-Year High
The US Oil Industry Doesn’t Want the Iran War Either

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows that new technologies can be really disruptive to the labor market, but eventually new jobs emerge and things come back into balance. And there is a sense in which many view AI with the same lens. Yes, there will be pain in some sectors, but then there will be productivity gains and new sources of demand and new opportunities for labor that we can't conceive of yet. But could it be different this time? Could AI be disruptive in a manner that, say, the steam engine was not? On this episode we speak with Alex Imas, a professor at the University of Chicago focusing on economics and applied AI. We talk about his work on the AI and labor question, how to think about which jobs may be most at risk, and why the sheer speed of AI development could make it categorically different than prior general purpose technologies that came before it.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are a lot of things to be annoyed about in modern life. The high cost of food and housing and childcare. Dating apps that don't seem to work. The fear of AI replacing you at your job. These are all common complaints and concerns, and each of them can be traced to a specific economic phenomenon or market structure issue. Once you start thinking about the world in this way, you can't unsee it. In this episode, we speak with Planet Money co-host Mary Childs, and contributor to the podcast, Alex Mayassi. They've just written a book called Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life. We discuss how one of Tracy's childhood memories was a reflection of the commodity trap, what Baumol's cost disease tells us about daycare, and why -- despite all these frustrations -- there are still many reasons to be optimistic about economic progress.

Read more:
Australia Secures Fertilizer From Indonesia to Meet Crop Needs
Kerrygold Butter Maker Sees Iran War Costs Hitting Consumers

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's possible that the war in Iran could reshape financial flows in significant ways. Perhaps the Gulf states will end up as less desirable places to do business. Perhaps Iran will have a tollbooth at the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps this episode will accelerate the world's shift away from oil. It's impossible to say. But given the uncertainty, fresh questions are being raised about the existing financial world order, upon the top of which the US dollar sits. On this episode, we speak once again with Brad Setser, the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We discuss how the war is already creating new global imbalances, and the degree to which this episode parallels past energy shocks. We also talk about broader trends in reserve management, other factors driving financial flows, and the unique situation facing East Asia, which is seeing a surge in its energy import bills at the same time its making making a fortune selling chips for the AI boom.

Read more:
US Probes Suspicious Oil Trades Made Before Trump Pivots
China’s $51 Trillion Savings Help Bonds to Outperform During War

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The war in Iran has caused the price of all kinds of commodities to surge, and that has a negative economic impact almost everywhere. But the squeeze is really being felt hard in East Asia, which is the ultimate destination for a lot of oil and gas that come out of the Gulf. And though the Strait of Hormuz may eventually re-open, and the acute pain may pass, this episode may already be reshaping the future. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Alex Turnbull, an investor based in Singapore, and a researcher on energy topics with the Australian National University. He argues that the war will accelerate the region's appetite to restart nuclear power plants, ultimately lessening its dependence on imported natural gas. He also notes that per his channel checks, the region is already seeing a jump in demand for electric vehicles, with BYD dealers holding less and less inventory on hand.

Read more: US, Iran Seek More Ceasefire Talks as Blockade Stops Ships
There Are No Easy Exits From Iran for the US

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter

Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's fueling the A.I. bubble, it's coming to your retirement portfolio—and it's flashing a lot of warning signs right now.

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, private credit or “shadow banking” grew as an alternative to the regulations and shared risk that institutional banks operate within. What happens if a crisis hits the trillions of dollars that are outside of those guardrails? We may be about to find out. 

Guest: Tracy Alloway, co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast.

https://slate.com/podcasts/what-next-tbd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Regardless of whether the war with Iran continues, it seems likely to have a lasting impact on the Gulf states. They may have to rebuild damaged pipelines and other infrastructure, or create new ones that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. They might have to spend more money on their own defense, or intensify a push to diversify their economies away from oil. New political alliances may be formed, and old ones could fall apart. In this episode, we bring back Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist at Bloomberg Economics, to discuss the many ways the war could impact the region for years to come.

Read more:
Gulf Airspace Disruptions From Iran War Hits Seychelles Tourism
Bankers Start Weighing UAE Return Hours After US-Iran Ceasefire

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks have gone up over the years because corporate earnings continue to grow. That part is straightforward. But in addition to rising stock prices, we've also seen rising stock market valuations. For years, investors have talked about stocks being unreasonably priced, and yet they haven't reverted to historical norms. But perhaps there's a good explanation for this, beyond just animal spirits. Jonathan Heathcote is an economist at the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, who recently co-authored a paper titled, A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios. Along with co-authors Andrew Atkeson and Fabrizio Perri, they argue that while stocks may look rich on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, they look a lot better when based on free cash flow. In other words, because companies haven't had to invest much, their equity is more valuable. Furthermore, labor's share of the profits — the percentage that goes to workers relative to capital — has been on the decline. Of course, these days the big story is about how big, profitable tech companies are spending a fortune on capital expenditure for the AI buildout. So we talked to Jonathan about his research and discuss the possibility that this trend in free cash flow growth could reverse, and therefore hit stock market valuations, too.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When the conflict with Iran started, some of the first headlines we saw had to do with shipping insurance. Marine insurers were said to be canceling war risk coverage for vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz. Premiums were said to surge. Meanwhile, the Trump administration announced it would offer its own insurance for ships traversing the Persian Gulf, in an effort to get things moving again. So why is insurance such a crucial part of maritime trade? And how does the system actually work? In this episode, we speak with Dorothea Ioannou, CEO of the American P&I Club, and Steven Ogullukian, the club's reinsurance director. We talk about the different roles of insurers, reinsurers, insurance clubs, and why ships need to have separate coverage for things like war, liability and hull loss.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Right now, when you think about prediction markets, you basically think about two main companies: Polymarket and Kalshi. And then when you think of what's being traded on those platforms, there's a whole range of stuff from elections to sports to real economic outcomes, to totally gonzo random stuff, like who will win the next season of Big Brother. So far, sports is where a lot of the money is. But at least in theory, prediction markets could be a popular instrument for professional, institutional traders. Thomas Peterffy is the founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers, one of the most successful and groundbreaking electronic brokerages for both institutions and serious retail traders. Now Interactive Brokers is getting into the predictions space. In this episode, we talk to Peterffy on why he believes prediction markets will be the next big thing in markets, why he thinks his firm could be a major player, and what it will take to transform the space from a large curiosity to something seriously used by institutions.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The story of how a secret project at Google led to driverless cars on American roads. And, an answer to the question: are the robots actually safer drivers than we are? Find Part 2: “The Trial of the Driverless Car” HERE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The relationship between the US and Europe is deteriorating along both security and economic dimensions. The Trump administration has imposed tariffs, while also being sharply critical of NATO allies. So what are European leaders to do? Hope things go back to normal in the US? Or perhaps become closer with China? Our guest on this episode says the latter would be a grave mistake. This episode was recorded live on April 1 at the DC headquarters of the Council on Foreign Relations. We spoke with Gina Raimondo, now a CFR Distinguished Fellow, who previously served as the commerce secretary in the Biden Administration, and prior to that was the governor of Rhode Island. She discusses her view that European industry is being hollowed out by China, and that the only path forward is a global, unified, non-China trading bloc, which is an idea that's being thwarted by the Trump administration. We also talk about the legacy of the CHIPS Act, and her fears about AI creating mass unemployment and destabilizing our democracy.

Read more:
US Lawmakers Propose Crackdown on Chip Tool Sales to China
Cheap Chinese Cars Are Waiting on Detroit's Doorstep

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's obviously a lot of talk these days about AI and possible destruction of white collar jobs. Intuitively bankers might be expected to be victims of this. But before we can answer whether AI can disrupt an industry, or a line of work, we have to know what the job actually entails. What do investment bankers actually do, and why are they paid for it? To answer this question, we speak with Scott Bok, the longtime former CEO of the investment bank Greenhill. Scott is also the author of the book Surviving Wall Street: A Tale of Triumph, Tragedy, and Timing. We discuss how the industry changed in his career, what type of people thrive in it, and how AI could change the nature of the profession.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When you consider the fact that many people don't know how and where to place a comma, it's safe to say that AI is already better than most people at writing. It's clean copy. It can be surprisingly persuasive. And sometimes, it's even informative. But there's frequently still something about it that just seems... off. Many people can tell quite quickly when they're reading AI-generated text. And beyond the style, the existence of AI generated text has all kinds of ramifications, from making it easier for students to cheat, to the rise of deceptive chatbots, to potentially degrading the experience on sites like Reddit. So how do you actually tell if a piece of writing was generated by AI? On this episode, we speak with Max Spero, the CEO of Pangram Labs, a company that built software to detect whether a piece of content was AI generated or not. We talk about the advanced techniques they use, the risk of false positives and false negatives, and what AI writing means in general for the future of the Internet.

Read more:
The AI Video Apps Gaining Ground After OpenAI Declared Sora Dead
Credit Derivative Trading Shatters Records on Iran War, AI Fears

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil has shot up by a lot since the start of war with Iran. But it could still get much worse. So far, the massive disruption (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) has been cushioned by the drawing down of inventories and distributions from strategic stockpiles. Meanwhile, there is some oil still on tankers that has yet to be delivered. According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, the potential remains for oil to go much, much higher. On this episode, we speak with Javier about the scale of the shock, why the pain is extraordinarily high in East Asia, how this compares to past oil shocks, and what the world would look like if Iran retains control of the Strait.

Read more:
Oil Falls on Signs From US, Iran of Openness for War Resolution
Trump’s God Squad Exempts Gulf Drilling from Endangered Species Protections

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, NASA is scheduled to launch Artemis II, a mission that will send astronauts around the moon for the first time in more than 50 years. But this comes at a time when the space agency is facing some pretty big funding challenges, as well as growing competition with private players like SpaceX. In this episode, we speak with Alexander MacDonald, who served as NASA's first chief economist and is now a senior associate at the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. We talk about why the space agency had economists, how space exploration is funded, and how NASA measures its own economic impact. Please note, this episode was recorded March 10.

Read more:
Nasdaq Speeds Up Index Entry for SpaceX, Large IPOs With New Rule
SpaceX Knocks Boeing From Dominant Role in NASA Moon Mission

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When we last spoke to Marco Argenti, chief information officer at Goldman Sachs, we were talking about how the bank was deploying AI, including the development of its own internal tools. But that was a year and a half ago and a lot has changed since then, especially with the arrival of agentic platforms like Claude Code. So what exactly is Goldman Sachs doing with AI now? And what has its experience with the new tech been like so far? On this episode, we catch up with Marco to discuss what AI deployment at the bank actually looks like at the moment — including how AI coding is changing the work of its developers and engineers — to all the data challenges and regulatory concerns that come with integrating this technology at scale.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The last big story right before the war in Iran started was the collapse in the relationship between the Pentagon and Anthropic, with the latter objecting to any potential use of its models in either fully autonomous weapons or domestic surveillance. Of course, this story immediately become more relevant with the start of the war, and the reporting that Anthropic's technology was in fact utilized at the start of hostilities. But what does that mean? How are these models used? And what would a fully autonomous weapons system actually entail? On this episode, we speak with Paul Scharre, the executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security. He has written two books on the subject of AI in warfare, and previously worked inside the Department of Defense on some of these very questions. We discuss the future of autonomous weaponry, and the various ethical and technological dimensions such weapons would entail.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ripple effects from the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to widen. There's yet another brewing shortage, this time in helium. While most people associate helium with balloons and funny voices, the element is used in a surprisingly wide variety of industrial settings, including semiconductor production, where its role in advanced lithography has been growing rapidly. But helium mining and exploration in North America has been practically non-existent for a variety of reasons. And while the US used to have a strategic helium reserve, the government started selling that down in the late 1990s. On this episode, we speak with Nicholas Snyder, the founder and CEO of North American Helium, which does helium mining in Canada. We discuss the properties of helium that make it so useful, as well as the difficulties of expanding global production and distribution.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are often said to be "headline-driven," but that cliché has rarely felt more true than it does right now. A single tweet or Truth Social post can send prices sharply higher or lower, and investors (especially in the rates market) have been forced to rapidly reposition in response. But even as volatility has increased, traditional safe haven destinations like gold haven't been rallying. So how are big accounts actually trading this market? In this episode, we bring back Ozan Tarman, vice chair of global macro at Deutsche Bank and someone who meets regularly with large investors around the world. He tells us what he's seeing right now, including the potential for a squeeze higher in equities and left-tail risks in private credit.

Read more:
Oil Drops Near $102 as Traders Weigh Outlook for US-Iran Truce
Iran War Shows BRICS Limits as India Pushed to Choose Sides

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Everyone knows by now that war in Iran is curbing the flow of oil around the world. But oil isn't just a gasoline and jet fuel story, of course. It's also a crucial feedstock for a bunch of petrochemicals, including the building blocks of a variety of plastics. And we're already seeing polyethylene prices start to surge, with some producers in Asia declaring force majeure and curbing their output. So how much of the world's petrochemicals supply is now in danger? And what does it mean for the future of plastics and packaging, which is basically in everything nowadays? On this episode, we're joined by Philip Geurts, chemicals and oil analyst at BloombergNEF, to walk us through the numbers.

Read more:
Oil Crunch Threatens South Korea’s Garbage Bag, Ramen Supply
Israel Says War Isn’t Ending Even as Trump Touts Peace Talks

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nobody knows when or if AI will lead to mass displacement of white-collar work. But the anxiety is clearly here now, and there's very little evidence that our politicians are taking it seriously. Of course, there are at least two questions operating at once here. The first is whether or not AI really poses a significant threat to the existing labor market. And then the second one is about the correct policy response. This was the subject of a recent Odd Lots episode recorded live at SXSW in Austin, Texas. In this conversation, we were joined by David Shor, a political consultant, pollster and founder of Blue Rose Research, as well as Byrne Hobart, the writer of TheDiff newsletter, and a general partner at Anomaly Fund, an early-stage venture capital firm. We discuss the prospects of a labor market disaster, what David's polling says about the public view, and possible policy considerations that could be palatable to both industry and the general public.

Read more:
Fink Says AI Threatens to Leave Masses Behind Unless They Invest
Private Capital Turns to Old Economy as Software Trade Dims

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dubai has become a huge destination for the rich, with an influx of high-net-worth residents driving up property prices and boosting the UAE's tax revenues in recent years. And of course, Gulf countries more broadly have a lot of oil wealth that they've ploughed into everything from real estate to private credit and tech. But the situation with Iran looks set to test that prosperity. In recent weeks, Iran has been attacking Gulf energy infrastructure and even launched drone strikes on residential areas in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. In this episode, we speak with Hiten Samtani long-time Dubai resident, founder of Ten31 Media, and publisher of The Promote about what's behind Dubai's luxury boom, how Gulf capital has reshaped global finance including private credit, and what life in Dubai feels like amid rising geopolitical risk.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Here's Why is Bloomberg’s short explainer podcast, where we take one big news story and break it down in just a few minutes with help from our experts across the newsroom.

We're dropping into your feed with a special episode featuring Joe Weisenthal, who joined us to discuss why the Iran war is prompting a safe haven rethink.

In times of geopolitical turmoil, investors look for somewhere safe to put their money. US President Donald Trump's trade war helped to fuel a record rally for gold in 2025, but the Iran war is pushing investors to shelter in different places.

Like what you hear? Subscribe to the Here’s Why podcast for more quick, expert-driven explainers available via the links below every Friday. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The war in Iran has already lasted longer than many people might have expected. There was an initial assumption, after oil prices started surging, that President Trump could just declare victory at any moment. But that hasn't happened, and the longer this goes on, the more damage is being done to the region's energy infrastructure. Already a key gas plant in Qatar has been damaged so badly that it's expected to take it years to repair. On this episode, we speak with return guest Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group who specializes in energy and Iran. Beyond his current work, Greg is the author of two books on the history of oil in Iran. We discuss the logic of the war from both the Iranian and American perspectives, and why the Trump administration may have walked into a "strategic trap" with no easy way to declare victory and get out.

Read more:
Iran Leaves an Isolated Trump Grappling With Historic Oil Crisis
How Iran Has Effectively Closed the Strait of Hormuz

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

America’s farmers can’t seem to catch a break. Years of thin margins and rising costs have already stretched them to the limit. And now, war with Iran is making things even harder. The conflict is driving up global energy and fertilizer prices, pushing producers into tough decisions about what to plant and at what price to sell. At the same time, farmers are still dealing with the impact of tariffs, rising land costs, and stiff competition from agricultural powerhouses like Brazil. On this episode, we’re joined again by Jeff Kazin and Mike Rohlfsen, founders of Agris Academy, which advises farmers on managing risk. They walk us through how global turmoil reaches all the way into the US heartland and into the American food supply.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mostly, the world has been watching the price of oil skyrocket amid the war in Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But there's more than just oil that comes out of the region. Qatar is home to the world's largest natural gas field, and for now, it's been almost completely cut off from the rest of the world. Not only has Gulf gas supply been cut off, there's also damage to the core infrastructure, which will take time to repair. Meanwhile, the US is rapidly becoming a natural gas export powerhouse, with volumes having surged since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So, all in all, the world's natural gas map is rapidly being redrawn. On this episode, we turn to the one and only Bob Brackett, managing director and senior research analyst at Bernstein & Co. He explains the impact of the war on global prices, the prospect for further US exports, how the world will adjust to the loss of Gulf supply, as well as the other commodities that are getting squeezed right now.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The war in Iran has been fought almost entirely in the skies, with both offensive missiles, as well as anti-missile defense systems. But the math is brutal. The war in Ukraine has already put a dent in American stockpiles, and now it is proving costly to protect American bases and their allies in the region against Iranian drones. On this episode, we speak with Tom Karako, a senior fellow and director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a top defense think tank in Washington DC. We discuss the size and scale of the American arsenal, the supply chain constraints for building more missiles, and the Pentagon's general attempts to ramp up production.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter

Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the wake of the war in Iran, oil prices have shot up for everyone. But not all oil is exactly equal. And, obviously, a lot of Iranian oil goes to China specifically. Furthermore, because Iran’s oil is sanctioned, a lot of it winds up at China’s so-called “teapot” refineries, which tend to be smaller and owned by independent companies. On the other hand, China has famously been building up its strategic petroleum stockpiles for years, and due to the rise of electric vehicles, they may have less economic sensitivity to the price of crude directly. On this episode, we speak with Erica Downs, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs. Erica has a long background studying Chinese energy policy and she talks to us about the potential cost that the war is imposing on China’s economy, why the country has built up such a big buffer stock in the first place, and how this global oil shock could ultimately play to its advantage.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We tend to think of warfare in two distinct arenas: the physical and the digital. Increasingly, however, those lines are blurring. Last week, Iran launched drone strikes on data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. Israel has reportedly been hacking traffic lights in Tehran, and this week brought a suspected Iranian cyberattack on US medical device company Stryker, all underscoring long-held fears that hackers could take aim at vital physical infrastructure. On this episode, we speak with Matt Suiche, the legendary French hacker and founder of OnDB, a data infrastructure startup for agentic AI. We discuss what we know of Iran’s cyber capabilities, what digital warfare looks like today, and how AI is transforming coding and hacking.

Read more:
Stryker Remains Offline After Cyberattack Linked to Iran Group
Google to Provide Pentagon With AI Agents for Unclassified Work

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We all know that the war with Iran has sent oil prices spiking. But it’s also pushing up the cost of all sorts of chemicals, including fertilizers like urea, ammonia and other nitrogen products that are essential for food production. This is all happening at the worst possible time — just before the spring planting season, when fertilizer is most needed. And while farmers have seen higher spot prices for things like urea before, notably back in 2022, there are already signs that this crisis might be worse. So how is fertilizer actually made? And what do higher fertilizer costs mean for farmers and for food prices? On this episode we speak with Alexis Maxwell, senior analyst on Bloomberg Intelligence's agriculture team.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil has obviously spiked massively since the start of the war with Iran. And if you look at various end products, such as jet fuel, the surge is even more extreme. And if the war is prolonged, or if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be functionally blocked, then this could just be the start of an even bigger spike. On this episode, we speak with Rory Johnston, the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. Rory is typically a very level headed guy, and not a doomer at all. And even he is quite alarmed. He says that the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz is such big disruption to contemplate that it’s typically used as the worse case scenario in industry thought experiments. He walks us through how oil could go to $200 a barrel or beyond, resulting in higher prices at the pump for American consumers, and perhaps significant shortages in the rest of the world.

Read more:
Trump Signals Possible End to War, Floats Removing Oil Sanctions
Venezuela Oil Buyer Says Its Cargo Is Sailing to Caribbean

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last year, we had Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on the podcast to talk to us about his company's plans to tokenize shares of private companies. The idea is that retail investors want to participate in hot names like OpenAI and SpaceX, and that tokenizing private equity would allow this to happen. Right after our episode though, a number of companies expressed frustration at the idea, saying that they were not voluntarily participating in the plan. So where do things stand now? And how is Robinhood thinking about how it will play in the red hot prediction market space? On this episode, Vlad returns to talk about where things stand, and all of the company's new efforts to give retail traders even more instruments to use.

Read more:
Polymarket Bets on Iran War Show Limits of Prediction Markets for Wall Street
Robinhood Adds $695 ‘Actual’ Platinum Card to Compete With Amex

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A year ago, all of the talk was about how the big AI companies were wildly overvalued. Everyone was calling it a bubble. Fast forward to now, and a dominant idea in the markets is that AI is so powerful that all kinds of legacy businesses — particularly software — could go to zero. So where does the truth lie? And what now for AI valuations? On this episode, recorded live at the On Air podcast festival in Brooklyn on February 25, we catch up again with Henry Blodget, the former Wall Street analyst turned Business Insider CEO, who is now the founder of Regenerator. In a wide-ranging conversation, Henry argues against the software doom scenario, and sees problems for OpenAI as it faces massive spending costs with stiff competition.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With war breaking out in Iran, the price of oil is surging, in part due to the destruction of oil energy infrastructure, but also the ability of anything to get through the Strait of Hormuz. But it’s not just oil that moves through this key waterway — there are plenty of other goods, including metals and ingredients for fertilizer getting potentially constrained. It’s also not just the risk of violence itself that’s an issue for shipping companies, there’s also the question of how cargoes get insured. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with return guests Anton Posner and Margo Brock, co-founders of the Mercury Group, which helps dry bunk clients solve issues related to logistics, transportation and insurance. They discuss what’s actually happening on the ground, surging insurance rates, and how shippers and carriers are dealing with the chaos.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lloyd Blankfein was CEO of Goldman Sachs for more than a decade, riding the trading boom to the top of the storied investment bank and steering it through the 2008 financial crisis. In his new memoir, Streetwise: Getting To and Through Goldman Sachs, he writes about his journey from public housing in Brooklyn to the pinnacle of Wall Street. So what's he up to now? And how does he see markets and finance today? In this episode, we talk about deglobalization and Wall Street, the threats AI and tech pose to investment banking, risk management in private credit, and rich people's attitudes towards taxes. Plus, Lloyd shares some of what he left out of the book and he explains why he doesn't tweet more.

Read more:
Goldman’s Solomon Is Watching for ‘Frothiness’ in Private Credit
Private Market Titans Warn of Pain as Credit Cracks Widen

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The average person can enter a stock trade on their computer, hit refresh, and the trade is done. As fast as that seems, there are professional traders moving even faster, executing thousands of trades per second. Over the years, the need for speed got so intense that competing firms would aim to get their own systems closer and closer to the exchange's computers, so as to minimize the length of the wires and get their trades in even faster. How did this happen? And how does this change the nature of trading itself? On this episode, we speak with Donald Mackenzie, a professor of sociology at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. Professor Mackenzie has been studying the intersection of finance and tech for a long time, and in 2021 wrote the book, Trading at the Speed of Light. We discuss the history of finance technology and look at where the technological arms race is going next.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

'Bloomberg This Weekend' features unique conversations on business, news, lifestyle and culture. Join David Gura, Christina Ruffini and Lisa Mateo Saturdays and Sundays for discussions with business leaders, lawmakers and cultural icons.  

Watch the show LIVE on Bloomberg Television from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time.   
Listen to the show LIVE on Bloomberg Radio from 7AM-10AM Eastern Time.   

Listen to the Podcast for the best conversations from the show.   
Subscribe on Apple:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bloomberg-this-weekend/id1878739308
Subscribe on Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/show/5DQ8CEg9LeS1xGJSaxt47l

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Something very unusual happened in the market in the last week of February. It sold off, in part, thanks to an article on Substack. James van Geelen is the founder of Citrini Research, which published a piece a week ago titled, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” It was not written as a forecast of an imminent disaster, but rather as a scenario analysis in which AI capabilities lead to widespread white collar job losses, triggering a deep downturn, and a financial crisis. Nonetheless, the piece went extraordinary viral, gathering all kinds of responses from economists and research shops and even Citadel Securities. On this episode, we speak with James, the piece's co-author, about what Citrini Research actually is, why he wrote the piece, and why this is a scenario worth paying attention to, even if it's not the most likely outcome.

Read more:
Bank Shares Walloped by More AI and ‘Cockroach’ Credit Woes
Pentagon Casts Cloud of Doubt Over Anthropic’s AI Business

Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earlier this month, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were illegal. And now basically every importer who paid those tariffs will be rushing to get their refunds. But will businesses actually get paid? And how do they file a claim? And should consumers get refunded if a business passed the cost of the tariffs on to them? On this episode, we're rejoined by regular Odd Lots guest Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport, a major freight forwarding company. We discuss how the entire refund process works, and the estimated timeline for payoff. We also talk about the booming secondary market in refund claims, where traders are buying up other people's claims for, in some cases, 50 cents on the dollar. Ryan also walks us through how world trade has changed since the tariffs began and the various way companies tried to game the system.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's hard to imagine New York City becoming significantly more affordable as long as it remains so expensive to build things. Whether we're talking about new housing or transportation, the city is a famously expensive place to do construction. There are reports of subway elevators costing $100 million per station. Public bathrooms end up costing millions as well. One driver of costs is insurance, which is a major national issue, but particularly acute in NYC, with costs as a share of a given construction project having surged over the decades. So what's the story? On this episode we speak with Elizabeth Crowley, the president and CEO of the Building Trades Employers' Association, as well as Michael Capasso, the president and CEO of CAC Industries, a civil engineering firm which works on various heavy construction projects in the city. We talk about regulations that push the cost of operation higher, along with other factors such as project delays and labor availability.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alison Roman is a cult figure in the world of food media. She's written multiple hit cookbooks and several of her recipes have gone viral. And her newsletter is incredibly popular. Now, she's putting her name on consumer goods, recently launching a new line of high-end jarred tomato sauce called, appropriately, A Very Good Sauce, which she sells direct online. So what has she learned about the consumer goods industry and its supply chain? On this episode, she explains why she entered the space, how she thinks about carving out a niche, and everything she's learned — from figuring out shipping to co-packing to designing a recipe that can be cooked in high volume. We also talk generally about the world of food and food media and how she thinks about bridging content and commerce.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani has certain ideas that make mainstream economists' head explode. Anything in the ballpark of rent control, specifically, is widely derided by defenders of the orthodoxy. But how did the orthodoxy become the orthodoxy? And how did the heterodoxy become the heterodoxy? On this episode, we speak with Jamee Moudud, a professor of economics at Sarah Lawrence College and author of the new book, Legal and Political Foundations of Capitalism. His scholarship sits at the intersection of economics and legal theory. He argues that one can not analyze the economy as if it were some separate thing that exists outside of the institutional and political realities of the time. We discuss the history of economics in the 19th and 20th centuries, and why certain ideas were adopted by the field, while others discarded and relegated to the margins.

Read more:
Mamdani Stacks NYC Board to Carry Out Promised Rent Freeze
Mamdani Threatens to Hike NYC Property Tax to Fill Budget Hole

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This year could be a big one for IPOs. From Anthropic to SpaceX to OpenAI, we could see some gigantic companies hit the public market. But of course, the big story is that big, thriving companies feel less and less pressure to go public. In a different era, private giants like Databricks and Stripe might've IPO'd a long time ago. So what's changed? Why are companies comfortable staying private for so long? On this episode, we speak with David George, a general partner at Andreesen Horowitz, who leads the firm's growth investing team. He discusses how private markets have grown deeper and more liquid, which greatly reduces the need for companies to have public stock at all. We also talk about how he's thinking about the AI disruption trade, and when it makes sense for these private giants to bite the bullet and expose their stock to public investors.

Read more:
Private Equity Targets Clean Energy After Steep Drop-Off in 2025
Andreessen Horowitz Backs Unicorn Kavak in $300 Million Round

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The start of the year has been an absolutely brutal one for software companies. There’s a big fear that the rise of AI and advanced coding models will pull the rug out from this industry. But even before these AI fears, software companies were seeing their growth slow. So how does the business actually work? And more importantly, what types of companies will actually survive the “SaaSpocalypse”? (Or maybe “the CaSaaStrophe”?) On this episode, we speak with Jared Sleeper, a longtime software investor who is now a partner at Avenir. We talk about the history of software, the evolution of business models, and where the threat is most acute. He also talks about why investors are so nervous, and their fears that in the long term many of these companies will be worth zero, while in the short term, they’re not even making much money on a GAAP basis.

Read more: Private Software Companies Release Earnings Early to Calm AI Nerves

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For years, DRAM -- or Dynamic Random Access Memory -- was kind of a sleepy, commoditized aspect of chip industry. Growth was steady, but modest, and prices just generally drifted lower. Suddenly all that's changed. AI has created voracious demand for DRAM and consumer facing companies are being forced to either curtail supply or raise prices due to exploding costs. But what is it about AI that consumes so much memory, and when will the market rebalance itself? On this episode, we speak with Ray Wang, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, who recently co-authored a report titled, Memory Mania: How a Once-in-Four-Decades Shortage Is Fueling a Memory Boom. We discuss the implications of this memory boom, how producers are responding to surging prices, and whether or not the Chinese companies in the space can catch up to the Korean giants, such as Samsung and Hynix.

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s an open secret that the Chinese government has engaged in a global campaign to acquire intellectual property from foreign rivals. At the center of that campaign is the Ministry of State Security, China’s elusive intelligence agency. The US has apprehended hundreds of people accused of giving information to the MSS, but the agency’s inner workings have been a mystery — until now.

Today, we’re bringing you Episode 1 of The Sixth Bureau, a limited-run series from The Big Take. The series follows an MSS intelligence officer whose mission was to acquire the crown jewels of American aerospace companies. With aliases, blackmail and the occasional break-in, he targeted corporate giants. That is, until his sloppiness — and a cunning FBI sting — led to a stunning reversal: Xu Yanjun became the first Chinese intelligence officer ever convicted on American soil.

Listen to Episode 2, available now in The Big Take.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The future is always tough to predict, but generally when it comes to inflation, a lot of the debate is about how long it will take the Federal Reserve to get back to its 2% target. In other words, people generally agree on the direction, but disagree on the speed. But our guest on this episode violently disagrees with the consensus direction. Peterson Institute President Adam Posen thinks inflation will be back at 4% by the end of the year. He first unveiled his thesis in a piece co-written with Lazard's Peter Orszag last month. Posen argues that the lagged effect of tariffs, immigration, further fiscal easing, and declining Fed credibility will combine to cause prices to reaccelerate. In this conversation, we speak with Posen about his thesis, and why he thinks the reports of economic softening are mistaken. We also talk about the broader geopolitical landscape and whether Europe is ready to really change its relationship with the United States.

More: A Very Non-Consensus Inflation Call 

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We are rapidly entering a world in which there are odds on virtually everything. During the recent Super Bowl, the big prediction market platforms didn't just offer bets on the game itself, but also on more exotic facets, such as the first song that Bad Bunny would sing, even who would join Bad Bunny in the performance. And while a lot of people thinks this looks like gambling, it's actually regulated by the CFTC, an agency created in the 1970s to regulate derivatives. On this episode, we speak with new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, who was nominated by President Trump and took his position in December. We talk to him about his philosophy, and why it is that these new bets are regulated as financial instruments, rather than gambling products. We talk about the tension that emerges when 18-year-olds can place bets on sports via prediction markets, even though in many states have laws on sports gambling, either banning it outright, or requiring participants to be at least 21. We also talk about crypto regulation, and whether perpetual futures -- which have exploded in the crypto space -- could soon be coming to traditional markets.

Read more:
Jump Trading Poised to Gain Stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket
Gambling Stocks Sag as Prediction Markets Steal Super Bowl Bets

Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at  bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots

Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter
Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.